Sunday’s highly anticipated matchup between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium wraps up a dramatic weekend series that has showcased elite pitching, clutch hitting, and the enduring heat of baseball’s most storied rivalry, with both teams looking to establish momentum in a tightly contested AL East race. The Red Sox will turn to rookie right-hander Hunter Dobbins, who has impressed in flashes with a 2–1 record and 4.06 ERA, but now faces the toughest assignment of his young career against a Yankees lineup that thrives in high-leverage moments and has consistently punished inexperienced arms, especially at home. The Yankees counter with Carlos Rodón, who enters with an 8–3 record and a sharp 2.49 ERA, using his dominant fastball-slider combination to overpower hitters from both sides of the plate while pitching deep into games, something Boston will need to disrupt early if they hope to flip the script on New York’s recent home dominance. Offensively, the Yankees hold the advantage on paper, with Aaron Judge continuing to rake with 18 home runs, Paul Goldschmidt offering protection in the middle of the order, and Giancarlo Stanton delivering vintage power that can change the game with one swing, while DJ LeMahieu and Austin Wells add contact consistency and timely production in key spots.

Boston isn’t without weapons—Rafael Devers remains a threat in the heart of the lineup, Tyler O’Neill’s recent hot streak gives them legitimate power from the right side, and Jarren Duran’s speed offers game-changing potential on the bases and in the outfield—but their offense is more vulnerable to strikeouts and less productive with runners in scoring position, which could spell trouble against Rodón’s command and the Yankees’ late-inning bullpen options. Speaking of bullpens, New York holds a clear edge with a late-inning group led by Devin Williams and Clay Holmes, both of whom have excelled in tight games and shown the ability to lock down one-run leads, while Boston’s bullpen remains stretched thin and prone to faltering in high-leverage moments, as seen throughout the last week where fatigue and missed spots have cost them multiple games. From a betting standpoint, the total is sitting around 8, and both teams have leaned heavily under—New York hitting the under in 25 of their last 39 and Boston in 33 of their last 55—making this matchup more likely to be decided by clean innings and timely contact than slugfests or crooked numbers. The key battlegrounds will be Rodón’s ability to suppress Devers and O’Neill in the first three innings, Dobbins’ composure through the middle of the order, and which team capitalizes on any two-out baserunners, with neither club likely to run away with momentum before the sixth. Expect a tight, tactical contest with the potential for a 4–3 or 3–2 finish favoring the Yankees if Rodón continues to dominate early and the bullpen preserves the edge, but if Boston can chase him by the fifth and get to New York’s middle relievers, the Red Sox could steal a win and complete a confidence-building series on the road.