The Philadelphia Phillies arrive at PNC Park for Saturday’s matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates carrying a solid 37–24 overall record that places them among the top teams in the National League, but recent results have highlighted troubling signs, particularly in games where they’re expected to dominate. A concerning 2–8 stretch against the spread has accompanied a three-game road losing streak, and while their record indicates overall success, the Phillies have struggled to string together commanding victories, often squeaking by or falling short despite being favored. On the mound, they’ll turn to left-hander Ranger Suárez, who has been one of their steadiest arms in 2025 with a 4–0 record, a 2.72 ERA, and 33 strikeouts over 46.1 innings pitched. Suárez’s ability to pitch deep into games while limiting walks and hard contact has been a bright spot, and he’s proven capable of keeping the Phillies in games even when run support lags behind. Offensively, the Phillies feature a star-studded lineup led by Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, and J.T. Realmuto—all of whom bring power and plate discipline but have struggled at times with runners in scoring position during this current rough patch.

The team’s tendency to rely on the long ball has become a double-edged sword—effective when they’re locked in, but prone to quiet stretches when the homers aren’t flying, as was the case in recent losses. Philadelphia’s bullpen has also shown signs of fatigue, particularly in games where starters can’t go deep, forcing arms like Seranthony Domínguez and José Alvarado into high-leverage situations night after night. Defensively, the team remains fundamentally sound, especially with Turner anchoring the infield and Realmuto behind the plate managing the staff, but lapses in focus have contributed to a few avoidable losses. Manager Rob Thomson is likely to emphasize early offense in this game to avoid putting additional pressure on the bullpen and to give Suárez the margin he needs to work effectively through the Pirates’ young but scrappy lineup. The Phillies’ best chance at covering the run line comes from jumping on Andrew Heaney early, forcing the Pirates to play from behind and shortening the game for their pitching staff. If the top of the order can set the table and the middle of the lineup cashes in on opportunities, Philadelphia has the tools to snap both their road and ATS skids. Still, recent form demands caution, and unless the Phillies can clean up situational hitting and receive a strong start from Suárez, Saturday’s contest may once again test the nerves of a team trying to reassert its dominance. With playoff implications already looming in the standings, each road win counts, and this matchup with Pittsburgh is as much about maintaining NL East positioning as it is about proving they can finish games with authority.