The Air Force Falcons return to Falcon Stadium on November 1, 2025, desperate to right the ship and restore order in a season that has tested both their resilience and discipline. Sitting at 2–5, head coach Troy Calhoun’s team has endured one of its most inconsistent stretches in recent memory, struggling to maintain the trademark balance and efficiency that once made them a perennial threat in the Mountain West. The Falcons’ identity remains rooted in their high-octane, option-based offense, but the defensive regression has been striking—Air Force is averaging an impressive 36 points per game on offense but surrendering a staggering 37.3 points on defense, an uncharacteristic imbalance that has cost them multiple close contests. Quarterback Zac Larrier remains the steady heartbeat of this offense, providing both leadership and explosiveness. He has accounted for over 1,300 total yards and 14 touchdowns, efficiently managing the Falcons’ attack with a combination of quick reads and timely improvisation. The backfield is powered by fullback Emmanuel Michel, who leads the team in rushing with over 700 yards and nine touchdowns, while halfbacks John Lee Eldridge III and Omar Fattah stretch defenses to the perimeter, giving Air Force multiple weapons to attack any defensive front. The offensive line, a traditionally disciplined and technically sound unit, continues to create running lanes and sustain long drives, but its pass protection has been vulnerable at times, particularly against blitz-heavy defenses like Army’s.

Against a disciplined Black Knights front seven, Air Force will need to emphasize precision and ball security—turnovers in this rivalry often prove decisive, and Army’s physicality at the line of scrimmage will test the Falcons’ execution under pressure. Defensively, Air Force has struggled far more than expected, particularly in containing the run, which is a troubling sign ahead of facing one of the nation’s most committed ground attacks. The Falcons’ front, led by nose tackle Bo Richter and linebacker Alec Mock, must win the battle in the trenches to prevent Army from dictating the tempo with its trademark clock-control offense. Secondary play has also been a concern; Air Force has been susceptible to misdirection and play-action, something Army will look to exploit if the opportunity arises. To counter this, Calhoun’s defense must tighten up assignments, maintain discipline at the edges, and rely on fundamentals rather than over-aggression. Special teams could swing momentum—kicker Matthew Dapore has been reliable when called upon, and the Falcons’ return units have the ability to flip field position if given space. From a betting perspective, Air Force’s 2–5 record and recent ATS struggles have made them a risky favorite, especially at home, where they’ve failed to cover in two of their last three games. Yet, despite those concerns, this matchup offers the Falcons a prime opportunity to reset their season. Their explosive offense gives them a legitimate edge if they can protect the football and score early, forcing Army out of its comfort zone. Calhoun’s squad will need to set the tone from the opening possession—using tempo, aggression, and precision—to build an early cushion and make Army chase points rather than dictate pace. If Air Force can combine early scoring drives with a more disciplined defensive performance, they have the talent and home-field advantage to not only win but also reestablish the confidence and rhythm that has long defined the program. With pride, rivalry stakes, and the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy implications all on the line, expect a determined Air Force team to come out swinging, knowing that this game could be the turning point that salvages their season and restores their reputation as one of the toughest, most efficient teams in the nation.