The September 27, 2025 showdown between the Baylor Bears and the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Stillwater has all the makings of a classic Big 12 battle, with both teams eager to make a statement in the conference race and build momentum heading into the heart of their schedules, and the game will likely be decided by which team can impose its preferred style of play more consistently over four quarters. Baylor enters the contest searching for offensive rhythm, as their attack has shown flashes of explosiveness but has too often been derailed by inconsistency, stalled drives, and turnovers that shift momentum and put undue pressure on their defense, and to succeed in Stillwater, the Bears will need to establish balance with a run game capable of chewing clock and protecting their quarterback while also hitting enough passes to keep Oklahoma State’s defense honest. Defensively, Baylor has been up and down, at times looking stout against the run and opportunistic in the secondary, but just as often giving up chunk plays that flip games, and against an Oklahoma State offense that thrives on tempo and vertical strikes, their ability to tackle well in space and maintain discipline in coverage will be critical. The Cowboys, meanwhile, enter the matchup riding a strong home record, confident in their ability to leverage the energy of Boone Pickens Stadium to elevate their play, and their offense remains the centerpiece of their identity, featuring a quarterback with both the poise to operate efficiently and the arm strength to attack downfield, supported by a versatile set of receivers and a run game that provides balance and sets up explosive plays.

Oklahoma State’s defense has also been particularly effective at home, with a front seven that generates consistent pressure and a secondary that feeds off mistakes, and they will look to make life difficult for Baylor’s quarterback by forcing him into hurried throws and obvious passing downs. Special teams could play a significant role as well, with Oklahoma State’s reliable kicking and disciplined coverage giving them an edge in field position, while Baylor must avoid miscues in that phase if they hope to keep the game close. From a betting perspective, Baylor’s struggles ATS on the road underscore the challenge of replicating success in hostile environments, while Oklahoma State’s ATS strength at home reflects how well they execute in Stillwater, and those trends point toward the Cowboys as the more comfortable side of the matchup. However, rivalry familiarity often makes these games closer than expected, and Baylor does have the pieces to spring an upset if they can avoid turnovers, win the battle on the ground, and keep the score tight going into the fourth quarter. Ultimately, the game will hinge on turnovers, red-zone execution, and which team controls tempo, with Baylor trying to slow things down and limit possessions while Oklahoma State aims to push pace, stretch the field, and use their home-field advantage to dictate terms. If the Cowboys succeed in creating big plays and building an early lead, they have the tools to pull away, but if Baylor can frustrate them with a physical approach and opportunistic defense, this could turn into one of the weekend’s most compelling Big 12 showdowns.