Sam Houston State vs Western Kentucky Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS CFB Lines & Props (Aug 23)
Updated: 2025-08-16T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Sam Houston State Bearkats open their 2025 season on Saturday, August 23, at Shell Energy Stadium in Houston, hosting the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky enters as a 3.5-point favorite, with the over/under set around 49 points, reflecting expectations for a competitive C-USA clash.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: Aug 23, 2025
Start Time: 7:00 PM EST
Venue: Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Hilltoppers Record: (0-0)
Bearkats Record: (0-0)
OPENING ODDS
SAMST Moneyline: +286
WKY Moneyline: -364
SAMST Spread: +9.5
WKY Spread: -9.5
Over/Under: 60.5
SAMST
Betting Trends
- In 2024, Sam Houston posted a strong 10–3 overall record, including a 6–2 mark in conference, with a standout +9 turnover margin and efficient situational play that translated to consistent ATS value.
WKY
Betting Trends
- Western Kentucky finished 8–6 in 2024, with solid conference performance (6–2) and an offense ranked near the top of C-USA—but definitive ATS data is sparse, though they generally covered favorably in neutral-site showdowns and slightly favored by oddsmakers in this rematch.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Despite Western Kentucky being home favorites, sharp money early in the week has backed Sam Houston State at +3.5, suggesting bettors view this as a match that can tilt toward the Bearkats due to their turnover success and disciplined execution.
SAMST vs. WKY
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup:
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Sam Houston State vs Western Kentucky Prediction & Odds:
Free CFB Betting Insights for 8/23/25
This opener presents a fascinating chess match—WKU’s tempo and aggression against Sam Houston’s calculated control and defensive toughness. While the Hilltoppers are favored by just over a field goal, the betting market has seen early interest on the Bearkats to cover, fueled by their +9 turnover margin in 2024 and their ability to win the efficiency battle in close games. Key matchups will include Sam Houston’s ability to disrupt Western Kentucky’s passing rhythm, limit explosive plays downfield, and extend drives on offense through third-down conversions and clock control. WKU, in turn, will look to push the pace early, force the Bearkats into a more aggressive game script than they’re used to, and capitalize on any early-game nerves from Longo’s new staff. Special teams could also play a pivotal role, especially in a game that may hinge on field position and a few critical fourth-quarter possessions. This season opener is more than just a tone-setter—it’s a stylistic contrast between a disciplined, defensively-oriented Bearkats squad and a Hilltoppers team aiming to light up the scoreboard and assert their status among the C-USA’s top-tier programs. If Sam Houston can maintain their defensive integrity, avoid turnovers, and control possession, they could very well walk out of Houston with a statement win. But if Western Kentucky dictates the tempo and forces the Bearkats to play from behind, their offensive firepower might be too much to contain. The outcome could be decided by whoever better manages the game’s middle quarters, where pace, pressure, and coaching adjustments will start to show.
Tomorrow, it’s go time. #EatEmUpKats pic.twitter.com/rwxHpinTvG
— Sam Houston Football (@BearkatsFB) August 22, 2025
Sam Houston State Bearkats CFB Preview
Sam Houston State enters the 2025 college football season with renewed ambition, fresh leadership, and a team eager to build on last year’s breakout 10–3 campaign that culminated in a New Orleans Bowl victory. With head coach Phil Longo taking over the reins from longtime leader K.C. Keeler, the Bearkats look to maintain their identity as a disciplined, opportunistic program while integrating Longo’s offensive vision centered around efficient passing and ball security. In 2024, the Bearkats excelled in areas often overlooked on stat sheets—they posted a +9 turnover margin, were one of the best in Conference USA at controlling time of possession, and converted on third down at a respectable 39 percent clip. Quarterback Keegan Shoemaker is expected to be the centerpiece of the offense once again, bringing maturity, accuracy, and decision-making that fits well with Longo’s system. Running back Zach Hrbacek, who showed flashes of explosiveness last season, is expected to get more touches and could play a pivotal role in keeping Western Kentucky’s quick-strike offense off the field. The offensive line returns several starters and will be tasked with maintaining a steady push in the run game while limiting negative plays—an area where the Bearkats were among the best in C-USA last year. On the defensive side, Sam Houston prides itself on keeping things in front of them and avoiding busted coverages, and the return of multiple key starters in the secondary gives them the flexibility to disguise looks and generate takeaways.
The linebacker unit, led by experienced veterans, will need to be sharp in space, especially against WKU’s tendency to stretch defenses with tempo and horizontal routes. Special teams, another strength last year, returns its starting kicker and punter, giving the Bearkats a slight edge in field position and game control in what could be a tight matchup. Sam Houston knows that this opening game presents more than just a conference battle—it’s a tone-setter for a team transitioning into a new identity while clinging to the habits that made them successful. They will aim to turn this contest into a methodical battle of attrition, forcing Western Kentucky to sustain long drives and taking advantage of any early mistakes or turnovers. The coaching transition, while significant, has been smooth throughout the offseason, and Longo’s experience as a play-caller at North Carolina and Wisconsin gives the Bearkats an edge in offensive design and halftime adjustments. For Sam Houston to pull off the upset or at least cover the spread, they will need to execute their game plan with surgical precision: win the turnover battle, stay ahead of the chains, and frustrate WKU’s offensive rhythm. This isn’t just an early test for the roster—it’s an opportunity to prove they belong at the top tier of Conference USA, and a chance for Longo to stamp his arrival with a defining win right out of the gate.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers CFB Preview
Western Kentucky enters the 2025 season with confidence, continuity, and a clear objective: to climb back into Conference USA title contention behind the leadership of seventh-year head coach Tyson Helton and a reloaded offense. After finishing 8–6 in 2024 with a 6–2 mark in conference play, the Hilltoppers return to their pass-heavy identity anchored by quarterback Caden Veltkamp, who took significant strides last year in reading defenses and delivering timely throws under pressure. WKU averaged nearly 25 points per game and showed flashes of explosive potential but struggled in red-zone efficiency and situational football, often settling for field goals or failing to capitalize on short fields. With offensive coordinator Rick Bowie stepping into a larger role, the focus will be on fine-tuning the Air Raid principles while injecting more balance through the run game—something the coaching staff believes can help them sustain drives and wear down opposing defenses. The receiving corps remains one of the most dynamic units in the conference, headlined by Elijah Young and Malachi Corley, who consistently find ways to separate and pick up chunk yardage after the catch. On the defensive side, Western Kentucky has emphasized tackling fundamentals and third-down discipline, areas that proved costly in losses last year when opposing teams were able to extend drives and control the tempo.
The defensive line, though not the most physically imposing, relies on quickness and stunt schemes to generate pressure and disrupt opposing quarterbacks, while the linebackers will play a key role in limiting Sam Houston State’s inside zone runs and tight end usage. One of the biggest advantages for the Hilltoppers is their tempo—when they dictate the pace and get into a rhythm, they can overwhelm opponents with volume and spacing, forcing breakdowns in coverage and missed assignments. However, against a ball-control team like Sam Houston, Western Kentucky will need to be deliberate in its early possessions, avoid going three-and-out, and force the Bearkats to play from behind—something they rarely had to do in their successful 2024 run. Special teams consistency will also be pivotal, as a solid kicking game and strong return coverage can flip field position and apply pressure in a game that oddsmakers expect to stay within a possession for most of the night. Playing at Shell Energy Stadium rather than their usual home in Bowling Green presents a minor challenge, but the Hilltoppers are treating this as a home-away-from-home and expect fan support to remain strong in this early-season test. Ultimately, Western Kentucky’s path to victory lies in execution and tempo—if Veltkamp can stay upright, hit early throws, and get into a rhythm with his top targets, and if the defense can limit Sam Houston’s third-down conversions, WKU has the firepower and coaching experience to outpace the Bearkats and start their 2025 campaign with a statement win.
The Hill is hungry.⏳🔜
— WKU Football (@WKUFootball) August 22, 2025
🎟️: https://t.co/EFaVucwePI pic.twitter.com/78dOHZ7ceY
Sam Houston State vs. Western Kentucky Prop Picks (AI)
Sam Houston State vs. Western Kentucky Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over mountains of data from every angle between the Bearkats and Hilltoppers and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.
Remi has been most keyed in on the unproportionally assigned factor knucklehead sportsbettors tend to put on coaching factors between a Bearkats team going up against a possibly rested Hilltoppers team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line in particular.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our CFB AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Sam Houston State vs Western Kentucky picks, computer picks Bearkats vs Hilltoppers, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full CFB schedule.
Bearkats Betting Trends
In 2024, Sam Houston posted a strong 10–3 overall record, including a 6–2 mark in conference, with a standout +9 turnover margin and efficient situational play that translated to consistent ATS value.
Hilltoppers Betting Trends
Western Kentucky finished 8–6 in 2024, with solid conference performance (6–2) and an offense ranked near the top of C-USA—but definitive ATS data is sparse, though they generally covered favorably in neutral-site showdowns and slightly favored by oddsmakers in this rematch.
Bearkats vs. Hilltoppers Matchup Trends
Despite Western Kentucky being home favorites, sharp money early in the week has backed Sam Houston State at +3.5, suggesting bettors view this as a match that can tilt toward the Bearkats due to their turnover success and disciplined execution.
Sam Houston State vs. Western Kentucky Game Info
What time does Sam Houston State vs Western Kentucky start on August 23, 2025?
Sam Houston State vs Western Kentucky starts on August 23, 2025 at 7:00 PM EST.
Where is Sam Houston State vs Western Kentucky being played?
Venue: Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium.
What are the opening odds for Sam Houston State vs Western Kentucky?
Spread: Western Kentucky -9.5
Moneyline: Sam Houston State +286, Western Kentucky -364
Over/Under: 60.5
What are the records for Sam Houston State vs Western Kentucky?
Sam Houston State: (0-0) | Western Kentucky: (0-0)
What is the AI best bet for Sam Houston State vs Western Kentucky?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup:. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are Sam Houston State vs Western Kentucky trending bets?
Despite Western Kentucky being home favorites, sharp money early in the week has backed Sam Houston State at +3.5, suggesting bettors view this as a match that can tilt toward the Bearkats due to their turnover success and disciplined execution.
What are Sam Houston State trending bets?
SAMST trend: In 2024, Sam Houston posted a strong 10–3 overall record, including a 6–2 mark in conference, with a standout +9 turnover margin and efficient situational play that translated to consistent ATS value.
What are Western Kentucky trending bets?
WKY trend: Western Kentucky finished 8–6 in 2024, with solid conference performance (6–2) and an offense ranked near the top of C-USA—but definitive ATS data is sparse, though they generally covered favorably in neutral-site showdowns and slightly favored by oddsmakers in this rematch.
Where can I find AI Picks for Sam Houston State vs Western Kentucky?
See our latest CFB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Sam Houston State vs. Western Kentucky Odds
Remi is pouring through tons of data points on each player. In fact, anytime the Sam Houston State vs Western Kentucky trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.
Sam Houston State vs Western Kentucky Opening Odds
SAMST Moneyline:
+286 WKY Moneyline: -364
SAMST Spread: +9.5
WKY Spread: -9.5
Over/Under: 60.5
Sam Houston State vs Western Kentucky Live Odds
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Oct 24, 2025 10:00PM EDT
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
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-375
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O 52.5 (-105)
U 52.5 (-115)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
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-320
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O 48.5 (-110)
U 48.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
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U 58.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
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O 63.5 (-114)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
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O 53.5 (-115)
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+210
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O 43.5 (-105)
U 43.5 (-115)
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O 57.5 (-105)
U 57.5 (-115)
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O 61.5 (-110)
U 61.5 (-110)
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+270
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O 38.5 (-112)
U 38.5 (-108)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
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+176
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O 41.5 (-105)
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+100
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O 47.5 (-110)
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+470
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O 62.5 (-115)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
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+146
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
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-156
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
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+114
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O 51.5 (-114)
U 51.5 (-106)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
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+190
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O 57.5 (-105)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
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U 41.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
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+340
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Oct 25, 2025 4:00PM EDT
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–
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+3500
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+38.5 (-110)
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O 56.5 (-105)
U 56.5 (-115)
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Oct 25, 2025 4:00PM EDT
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Cincinnati Bearcats
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–
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+152
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+4.5 (-115)
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O 67.5 (-105)
U 67.5 (-115)
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Oct 25, 2025 4:15PM EDT
Texas Longhorns
Mississippi State Bulldogs
10/25/25 4:15PM
TEXAS
MISSST
|
–
–
|
-280
+225
|
-7.5 (-102)
+7.5 (-120)
|
O 44.5 (-115)
U 44.5 (-105)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 6:00PM EDT
TCU Horned Frogs
West Virginia Mountaineers
10/25/25 6PM
TCU
WVU
|
–
–
|
-580
+420
|
-14.5 (-110)
+14.5 (-110)
|
O 56.5 (-110)
U 56.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:00PM EDT
Wisconsin Badgers
Oregon Ducks
10/25/25 7PM
WISC
OREG
|
–
–
|
|
+34.5 (-115)
-34.5 (-105)
|
O 44.5 (-118)
U 44.5 (-104)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:00PM EDT
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
Troy Trojans
10/25/25 7PM
UL
TROY
|
–
–
|
+280
-360
|
+9.5 (-110)
-9.5 (-110)
|
O 48.5 (-108)
U 48.5 (-112)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:00PM EDT
Stanford Cardinal
Miami Hurricanes
10/25/25 7PM
STNFRD
MIAMI
|
–
–
|
+3500
-10000
|
+30.5 (-115)
-30.5 (-105)
|
O 45.5 (-104)
U 45.5 (-118)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:00PM EDT
Georgia Southern Eagles
Arkansas State Red Wolves
10/25/25 7PM
GASO
ARKST
|
–
–
|
+112
-134
|
+2.5 (-110)
-2.5 (-110)
|
O 62.5 (-110)
U 62.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:30PM EDT
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan State Spartans
10/25/25 7:30PM
MICH
MICHST
|
–
–
|
-630
+450
|
-13.5 (-120)
+13.5 (-102)
|
O 48.5 (-105)
U 48.5 (-115)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:30PM EDT
Texas A&M Aggies
LSU Tigers
10/25/25 7:30PM
TEXAM
LSU
|
–
–
|
-140
+116
|
-2.5 (-115)
+2.5 (-105)
|
O 48.5 (-104)
U 48.5 (-118)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:30PM EDT
Boston College Eagles
Louisville Cardinals
10/25/25 7:30PM
BC
LVILLE
|
–
–
|
+1600
-4500
|
+25.5 (-110)
-25.5 (-110)
|
O 55.5 (-104)
U 55.5 (-118)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:30PM EDT
Colorado State Rams
Wyoming Cowboys
10/25/25 7:30PM
COLOST
WYO
|
–
–
|
+172
-210
|
+5.5 (-105)
-5.5 (-115)
|
O 46.5 (-110)
U 46.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:45PM EDT
Tennessee Volunteers
Kentucky Wildcats
10/25/25 7:45PM
TENN
UK
|
–
–
|
-335
+265
|
-9.5 (-110)
+9.5 (-110)
|
O 53.5 (-118)
U 53.5 (-104)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 8:00PM EDT
Houston Cougars
Arizona State Sun Devils
10/25/25 8PM
HOU
ARIZST
|
–
–
|
+250
-315
|
+7.5 (-110)
-7.5 (-110)
|
O 46.5 (-110)
U 46.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 10:15PM EDT
Colorado Buffaloes
Utah Utes
10/25/25 10:15PM
COLO
UTAH
|
–
–
|
+375
-500
|
+13.5 (-108)
-13.5 (-112)
|
O 49.5 (-115)
U 49.5 (-105)
|
CFB Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Sam Houston State Bearkats vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers on August 23, 2025 at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our CFB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
FSU@STNFRD | STNFRD +18 | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
WASHST@UVA | WASHST +17.5 | 58.8% | 8 | WIN |
NEVADA@NMEX | NEVADA +13.5 | 57.8% | 7 | WIN |
TEXAS@UK | ARCH MANNING UNDER 1.5 PASS TD | 56.1% | 6 | WIN |
ARMY@TULANE | ARMY +10 | 55.3% | 5 | WIN |
SJST@UTAHST | SJST +4 | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
LVILLE@MIAMI | LVILLE +12.5 | 56.5% | 6 | WIN |
LVILLE@MIAMI | CJ DANIELS UNDER 4.5 RECEPTIONS | 54.4 | 4 | LOSS |
DEL@JAXST | DEL -2.5 | 57.6% | 6 | LOSS |
UTEP@SAMST | UTEP -2.5 | 53.9% | 3 | WIN |
FIU@WKY | FIU +10.5 | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
ARKST@SALA | ARKST +7.5 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
ARKST@SALA | JAYLEN RAYNOR UNDER 40.5 LONGEST PASS COMP | 53.3% | 3 | WIN |
SJST@WYO | SJST -120 | 59.8% | 7 | LOSS |
UMASS@KENTST | KENTST -135 | 60.2% | 6 | WIN |
NOILL@EMICH | EMICH +2.5 | 53.9% | 3 | WIN |
BYU@ARIZ | ARIZ +2.5 | 54.2% | 3 | LOSS |
OKLA@TEXAS | OKLA +2.5 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
NMEX@BOISE | NMEX +16.5 | 56.4% | 6 | WIN |
WAKE@OREGST | WAKE -2.5 | 56.7% | 6 | WIN |
ULMON@COASTAL | ULMON -2.5 | 56.8% | 6 | LOSS |
IOWA@WISC | WISC +4 | 54.8% | 4 | LOSS |
TOLEDO@BGREEN | TOLEDO -10 | 56.3% | 6 | LOSS |
SFLA@NOTEX | SFLA +2.5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
FRESNO@COLOST | RICHIE ANDERSON III LONGEST RECEPTION UNDER 16.5 | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
JAXST@SAMST | SAMST +7.5 | 55.3% | 5 | WIN |
USM@GAS | GAS +3.5 | 57.4% | 7 | WIN |
LIB@UTEP | UTEP +2 | 54.5% | 4 | LOSS |
SALA@TROY | SALA -118 | 55.2% | 4 | LOSS |
TULSA@MEMP | MEMP -20.5 | 53.8% | 3 | WIN |
JMAD@GAST | GAST +20.5 | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
WAKE@VATECH | VATECH -5.5 | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
UNLV@WYO | WYO +4.5 | 55.5% | 5 | LOSS |
PSU@UCLA | PSU -24.5 | 56.3% | 6 | LOSS |
TXSTSM@ARKST | TXSTSM -13 | 56.7% | 6 | LOSS |
UVA@LVILLE | ISAAC BROWN OVER 70.5 RUSH YDS | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
WVU@BYU | WVU +20.5 | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
SAMST@NMEXST | SAMST -1.5 | 54.1% | 3 | LOSS |
EMICH@CMICH | CMICH -148 | 62.8% | 7 | WIN |
SDGST@NOILL | SDGST -118 | 55.7% | 3 | WIN |
BAMA@GEORGIA | GEORGIA -125 | 58.7% | 7 | LOSS |
TENN@MISSST | MISSST +7.5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
UK@SC | SC -5.5 | 54.8% | 4 | WIN |
WKY@MIZZST | MIZZST +4.5 | 55.6% | 6 | LOSS |
JAXST@USM | USM -3.5 | 56.0% | 5 | WIN |
NMEXST@NMEX | NMEX -14.5 | 56.9% | 6 | WIN |
ARIZ@IOWAST | ROCCO BECHT UNDER 1.5 PASS TDS | 55.5% | 5 | WIN |
TCU@ARIZST | JOSH HOOVER PASS YDS UNDER 287.5 | 53.4% | 3 | WIN |
ARIZST@BAYLOR | BAYLOR -130 | 58.4% | 6 | LOSS |
WYO@COLO | WYO +13.5 | 54.1% | 3 | LOSS |
TULANE@OLEMISS | MISS -11.5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |