Mississippi State vs Texas Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS CFB Lines & Props (Sep 28)
Updated: 2024-09-21T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-3) face a daunting task as they take on the Texas Longhorns (4-0) on September 28, 2024, at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Texas is heavily favored by 38.5 points in what could be a lopsided SEC matchup, with Mississippi State reeling after three consecutive losses.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: Sep 28, 2024
Start Time: 4:15 PM EST
Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Longhorns Record: (4-0)
Bulldogs Record: (1-3)
OPENING ODDS
MISSST Moneyline: +1325
TEXAS Moneyline: -10000
MISSST Spread: +38.5
TEXAS Spread: -38.5
Over/Under: 61.5
MISSST
Betting Trends
- Mississippi State is 0-4 ATS this season and has failed to cover the spread in seven straight games in September. Their struggles on both sides of the ball have been evident, particularly in their recent 45-28 loss to Florida.
TEXAS
Betting Trends
- Texas has covered the spread in seven of their last eight games, including blowout victories over weaker opponents. The Longhorns have consistently outperformed their lofty point spreads, winning by an average margin of nearly 30 points per game this season.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Texas has consistently hit the over in most of their recent games, especially when facing non-ranked opponents. Given their offensive firepower and Mississippi State’s defensive struggles, this matchup could see the total points easily surpass 62.5.
MISSST vs. TEXAS
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.
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Mississippi State vs Texas Prediction & Odds:
Free CFB Betting Insights for 9/28/24
Texas, meanwhile, has been dominant on both sides of the ball. Even with quarterback Quinn Ewers dealing with injuries, backup Arch Manning has stepped in seamlessly, throwing for 576 yards and seven touchdowns. The Longhorns’ balanced offense features running back Jerrick Gibson, who has rushed for 210 yards and three touchdowns, and a talented receiving corps led by Isaiah Bond, who has 290 yards and three touchdowns. The key to this game will be Texas’ defense, which has allowed just 11.5 points per game and recorded seven interceptions. Mississippi State’s offense will struggle to keep pace if Texas can generate early turnovers and maintain pressure. With Texas favored by 38.5 points, this game could turn into another blowout if the Longhorns’ offense continues its high-scoring ways.
Ring that Ball Out Bell, 2️⃣#SHOWTIME | #HailState pic.twitter.com/XqcCJe0Nzd
— Mississippi State Football (@HailStateFB) September 24, 2024
Mississippi State Bulldogs CFB Preview
Mississippi State heads into this game with a 1-3 record and plenty of questions surrounding its defense, which has allowed 32.3 points per game this season. The Bulldogs are coming off a 45-28 loss to Florida, where quarterback Blake Shapen threw for 243 yards and two touchdowns, but the defense gave up 482 total yards. Mississippi State’s inability to stop the run and cover receivers in space has been a recurring issue, something they’ll need to correct quickly against a Texas team that excels in both areas. Offensively, Mississippi State has relied on Shapen, who has 974 passing yards and eight touchdowns. However, their ground game has been inconsistent, with Johnnie Daniels leading the team with just 158 rushing yards. Mississippi State will need to establish the run early and protect the football if they want to stay competitive against the heavily favored Longhorns. Given Mississippi State’s struggles on defense, this game could get out of hand quickly if they are unable to slow down Texas’ high-powered offense. The Bulldogs will need a near-perfect performance to keep this game close.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Texas Longhorns CFB Preview
The Texas Longhorns are firing on all cylinders as they enter their Week 5 matchup against Mississippi State. After a commanding 4-0 start to the season, Texas looks like one of the most complete teams in the country. The Longhorns have averaged over 44 points per game while holding opponents to just 11.5 points, creating massive point differentials in each contest. Quarterback Quinn Ewers has been effective when healthy, but backup Arch Manning has been a reliable option, throwing for 576 yards and seven touchdowns in relief. On the ground, Jerrick Gibson leads the rushing attack with 210 yards and three scores. The Longhorns’ offensive line has been dominant, allowing their playmakers time to thrive both in the run game and through the air. Defensively, Texas has been stout, with linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. leading the team with 25 tackles, two sacks, and an interception. If Texas can continue its trend of forcing turnovers and keeping opponents out of the end zone, they should have no trouble extending their winning streak.
SEC play is here 🤘
— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) September 23, 2024
🏈 Texas vs. Mississippi State
📅 Saturday, Sept. 28 | 3:15 PM CT
📍 DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
📺 SEC Network
Presented by American Airlines pic.twitter.com/3HB4Ngnhws
Mississippi State vs. Texas Prop Picks (AI)
Mississippi State vs. Texas Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over millions of data from every past game between the Bulldogs and Longhorns and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.
Interestingly enough, the data has been most focused on the growing weight knucklehead sportsbettors often put on Texas’s strength factors between a Bulldogs team going up against a possibly unhealthy Longhorns team. In reality, the true game analytics appear to reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line in particular.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our CFB AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Mississippi State vs Texas picks, computer picks Bulldogs vs Longhorns, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ACTIVE PICKS LOCKED - SEE NOW |
These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full CFB schedule.
Bulldogs Betting Trends
Mississippi State is 0-4 ATS this season and has failed to cover the spread in seven straight games in September. Their struggles on both sides of the ball have been evident, particularly in their recent 45-28 loss to Florida.
Longhorns Betting Trends
Texas has covered the spread in seven of their last eight games, including blowout victories over weaker opponents. The Longhorns have consistently outperformed their lofty point spreads, winning by an average margin of nearly 30 points per game this season.
Bulldogs vs. Longhorns Matchup Trends
Texas has consistently hit the over in most of their recent games, especially when facing non-ranked opponents. Given their offensive firepower and Mississippi State’s defensive struggles, this matchup could see the total points easily surpass 62.5.
Mississippi State vs. Texas Game Info
What time does Mississippi State vs Texas start on September 28, 2024?
Mississippi State vs Texas starts on September 28, 2024 at 4:15 PM EST.
Where is Mississippi State vs Texas being played?
Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.
What are the opening odds for Mississippi State vs Texas?
Spread: Texas -38.5
Moneyline: Mississippi State +1325, Texas -10000
Over/Under: 61.5
What are the records for Mississippi State vs Texas?
Mississippi State: (1-3) | Texas: (4-0)
What is the AI best bet for Mississippi State vs Texas?
Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are Mississippi State vs Texas trending bets?
Texas has consistently hit the over in most of their recent games, especially when facing non-ranked opponents. Given their offensive firepower and Mississippi State’s defensive struggles, this matchup could see the total points easily surpass 62.5.
What are Mississippi State trending bets?
MISSST trend: Mississippi State is 0-4 ATS this season and has failed to cover the spread in seven straight games in September. Their struggles on both sides of the ball have been evident, particularly in their recent 45-28 loss to Florida.
What are Texas trending bets?
TEXAS trend: Texas has covered the spread in seven of their last eight games, including blowout victories over weaker opponents. The Longhorns have consistently outperformed their lofty point spreads, winning by an average margin of nearly 30 points per game this season.
Where can I find AI Picks for Mississippi State vs Texas?
See our latest CFB picks and odds pages for 2024 to compare prices before you bet.
Mississippi State vs. Texas Odds
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Mississippi State vs Texas trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance seemingly never follow normal, predictable patterns.
Mississippi State vs Texas Opening Odds
MISSST Moneyline:
+1325 TEXAS Moneyline: -10000
MISSST Spread: +38.5
TEXAS Spread: -38.5
Over/Under: 61.5
Mississippi State vs Texas Live Odds
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U 51.5 (-108)
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O 50.5 (-110)
U 50.5 (-110)
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Oct 24, 2025 10:00PM EDT
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O 50.5 (-110)
U 50.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
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-375
+290
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-10.5 (-105)
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O 52.5 (-105)
U 52.5 (-115)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
Bowling Green Falcons
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10/25/25 12PM
BGREEN
KENT
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-315
+250
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-8.5 (-110)
+8.5 (-110)
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O 48.5 (-110)
U 48.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
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-134
+108
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-2.5 (-113)
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O 59 (-110)
U 59 (-115)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
South Florida Bulls
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SFLA
MEMP
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-200
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O 64.5 (-106)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
UCLA Bruins
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+1400
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O 53.5 (-110)
U 53.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
Northwestern Wildcats
Nebraska Cornhuskers
10/25/25 12PM
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–
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+225
-280
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+6.5 (+104)
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O 43.5 (-105)
U 43.5 (-115)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
Ohio Bobcats
Eastern Michigan Eagles
10/25/25 12PM
OHIO
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-450
+340
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-12.5 (-110)
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O 59.5 (-110)
U 59.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
SMU Mustangs
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SMU
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-166
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O 54.5 (-110)
U 54.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
Syracuse Orange
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+610
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O 54.5 (-115)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
App State Mountaineers
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-490
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O 63.5 (-110)
U 63.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
Ole Miss Rebels
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OLEMISS
OKLA
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+172
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O 53.5 (-110)
U 53.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
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+122
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O 56.5 (-110)
U 56.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:45PM EDT
Auburn Tigers
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10/25/25 12:45PM
AUBURN
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–
–
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-106
-113
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+1.5 (-115)
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O 57.5 (-105)
U 57.5 (-115)
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Oct 25, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Akron Zips
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10/25/25 1PM
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+260
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+9.5 (-115)
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O 47.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:00PM EDT
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O 48.5 (-110)
U 48.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:00PM EDT
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+115
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O 62.5 (-110)
U 62.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
Minnesota Golden Gophers
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MINN
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+265
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+8.5 (-110)
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O 38.5 (-112)
U 38.5 (-108)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
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BAMA
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-465
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O 47.5 (-105)
U 47.5 (-115)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
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O 49.5 (-105)
U 49.5 (-115)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
Temple Owls
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O 54.5 (-110)
U 54.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
Ball State Cardinals
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BALLST
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–
–
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+176
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O 41.5 (-110)
U 41.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
Toledo Rockets
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–
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-105
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+1.5 (-115)
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O 47.5 (-110)
U 47.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
Florida Atlantic Owls
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10/25/25 3:30PM
FAU
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–
–
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+470
-670
|
+15.5 (-110)
-15.5 (-110)
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O 62.5 (-115)
U 62.5 (-105)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
Illinois Fighting Illini
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10/25/25 3:30PM
ILL
WASH
|
–
–
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+146
-178
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+4.5 (-115)
-4.5 (-105)
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O 55.5 (-105)
U 55.5 (-115)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
Umass Minutemen
Central Michigan Chippewas
10/25/25 3:30PM
UMASS
CMICH
|
–
–
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-800
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-16.5 (-115)
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O 46.5 (-110)
U 46.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
San Diego State Aztecs
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10/25/25 3:30PM
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–
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-152
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|
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O 48.5 (-110)
U 48.5 (-110)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
Missouri Tigers
Vanderbilt Commodores
10/25/25 3:30PM
MIZZOU
VANDY
|
–
–
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+115
-138
|
+2.5 (-106)
-2.5 (-114)
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O 51.5 (-114)
U 51.5 (-106)
|
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
NC State Wolfpack
Pittsburgh Panthers
10/25/25 3:30PM
NCST
PITT
|
–
–
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+190
-235
|
+6.5 (-110)
-6.5 (-110)
|
O 57.5 (-105)
U 57.5 (-115)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
Western Michigan Broncos
Miami Ohio Redhawks
10/25/25 3:30PM
WMICH
MIAOH
|
–
–
|
+114
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+2.5 (-110)
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O 41.5 (-110)
U 41.5 (-110)
|
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
UL Monroe Warhawks
USM Golden Eagles
10/25/25 3:30PM
MONROE
USM
|
–
–
|
+340
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+11.5 (-105)
|
O 50.5 (-110)
U 50.5 (-110)
|
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Oct 25, 2025 4:00PM EDT
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Texas Tech Red Raiders
10/25/25 4PM
OKLAST
TXTECH
|
–
–
|
+3500
-10000
|
+38.5 (-110)
-38.5 (-110)
|
O 56.5 (-115)
U 56.5 (-105)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 4:00PM EDT
Baylor Bears
Cincinnati Bearcats
10/25/25 4PM
BAYLOR
CINCY
|
–
–
|
+152
-184
|
+4.5 (-115)
-4.5 (-105)
|
O 67.5 (-110)
U 67.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 4:15PM EDT
Texas Longhorns
Mississippi State Bulldogs
10/25/25 4:15PM
TEXAS
MISSST
|
–
–
|
-285
+230
|
-7.5 (-105)
+7.5 (-115)
|
O 44.5 (-115)
U 44.5 (-105)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 6:00PM EDT
TCU Horned Frogs
West Virginia Mountaineers
10/25/25 6PM
TCU
WVU
|
–
–
|
-600
+430
|
-14.5 (-110)
+14.5 (-110)
|
O 56.5 (-110)
U 56.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:00PM EDT
Wisconsin Badgers
Oregon Ducks
10/25/25 7PM
WISC
OREG
|
–
–
|
|
+34.5 (-115)
-34.5 (-105)
|
O 44.5 (-114)
U 44.5 (-106)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:00PM EDT
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
Troy Trojans
10/25/25 7PM
UL
TROY
|
–
–
|
+290
-375
|
+9.5 (-105)
-9.5 (-115)
|
O 48.5 (-108)
U 48.5 (-112)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:00PM EDT
Stanford Cardinal
Miami Hurricanes
10/25/25 7PM
STNFRD
MIAMI
|
–
–
|
+3500
-20000
|
+30.5 (-115)
-30.5 (-105)
|
O 45.5 (-104)
U 45.5 (-118)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:00PM EDT
Georgia Southern Eagles
Arkansas State Red Wolves
10/25/25 7PM
GASO
ARKST
|
–
–
|
+105
-126
|
+2.5 (-115)
-2.5 (-105)
|
O 62.5 (-110)
U 62.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:30PM EDT
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan State Spartans
10/25/25 7:30PM
MICH
MICHST
|
–
–
|
-690
+480
|
-13.5 (-120)
+13.5 (-102)
|
O 48.5 (-105)
U 48.5 (-115)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:30PM EDT
Texas A&M Aggies
LSU Tigers
10/25/25 7:30PM
TEXAM
LSU
|
–
–
|
-140
+116
|
-2.5 (-115)
+2.5 (-105)
|
O 48.5 (-104)
U 48.5 (-118)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:30PM EDT
Boston College Eagles
Louisville Cardinals
10/25/25 7:30PM
BC
LVILLE
|
–
–
|
+1400
-4000
|
+25.5 (-110)
-25.5 (-110)
|
O 55.5 (-104)
U 55.5 (-118)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:30PM EDT
Colorado State Rams
Wyoming Cowboys
10/25/25 7:30PM
COLOST
WYO
|
–
–
|
+180
-220
|
+5.5 (-105)
-5.5 (-115)
|
O 46.5 (-110)
U 46.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:45PM EDT
Tennessee Volunteers
Kentucky Wildcats
10/25/25 7:45PM
TENN
UK
|
–
–
|
-345
+265
|
-9.5 (-110)
+9.5 (-110)
|
O 53.5 (-118)
U 53.5 (-104)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 8:00PM EDT
Houston Cougars
Arizona State Sun Devils
10/25/25 8PM
HOU
ARIZST
|
–
–
|
+245
-310
|
+7.5 (-110)
-7.5 (-110)
|
O 46.5 (-110)
U 46.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 10:15PM EDT
Colorado Buffaloes
Utah Utes
10/25/25 10:15PM
COLO
UTAH
|
–
–
|
+385
-520
|
+13.5 (-108)
-13.5 (-112)
|
O 49.5 (-115)
U 49.5 (-105)
|
CFB Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns on September 28, 2024 at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our CFB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
FSU@STNFRD | STNFRD +18 | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
WASHST@UVA | WASHST +17.5 | 58.8% | 8 | WIN |
NEVADA@NMEX | NEVADA +13.5 | 57.8% | 7 | WIN |
TEXAS@UK | ARCH MANNING UNDER 1.5 PASS TD | 56.1% | 6 | WIN |
ARMY@TULANE | ARMY +10 | 55.3% | 5 | WIN |
SJST@UTAHST | SJST +4 | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
LVILLE@MIAMI | LVILLE +12.5 | 56.5% | 6 | WIN |
LVILLE@MIAMI | CJ DANIELS UNDER 4.5 RECEPTIONS | 54.4 | 4 | LOSS |
DEL@JAXST | DEL -2.5 | 57.6% | 6 | LOSS |
UTEP@SAMST | UTEP -2.5 | 53.9% | 3 | WIN |
FIU@WKY | FIU +10.5 | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
ARKST@SALA | ARKST +7.5 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
ARKST@SALA | JAYLEN RAYNOR UNDER 40.5 LONGEST PASS COMP | 53.3% | 3 | WIN |
SJST@WYO | SJST -120 | 59.8% | 7 | LOSS |
UMASS@KENTST | KENTST -135 | 60.2% | 6 | WIN |
NOILL@EMICH | EMICH +2.5 | 53.9% | 3 | WIN |
BYU@ARIZ | ARIZ +2.5 | 54.2% | 3 | LOSS |
OKLA@TEXAS | OKLA +2.5 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
NMEX@BOISE | NMEX +16.5 | 56.4% | 6 | WIN |
WAKE@OREGST | WAKE -2.5 | 56.7% | 6 | WIN |
ULMON@COASTAL | ULMON -2.5 | 56.8% | 6 | LOSS |
IOWA@WISC | WISC +4 | 54.8% | 4 | LOSS |
TOLEDO@BGREEN | TOLEDO -10 | 56.3% | 6 | LOSS |
SFLA@NOTEX | SFLA +2.5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
FRESNO@COLOST | RICHIE ANDERSON III LONGEST RECEPTION UNDER 16.5 | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
JAXST@SAMST | SAMST +7.5 | 55.3% | 5 | WIN |
USM@GAS | GAS +3.5 | 57.4% | 7 | WIN |
LIB@UTEP | UTEP +2 | 54.5% | 4 | LOSS |
SALA@TROY | SALA -118 | 55.2% | 4 | LOSS |
TULSA@MEMP | MEMP -20.5 | 53.8% | 3 | WIN |
JMAD@GAST | GAST +20.5 | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
WAKE@VATECH | VATECH -5.5 | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
UNLV@WYO | WYO +4.5 | 55.5% | 5 | LOSS |
PSU@UCLA | PSU -24.5 | 56.3% | 6 | LOSS |
TXSTSM@ARKST | TXSTSM -13 | 56.7% | 6 | LOSS |
UVA@LVILLE | ISAAC BROWN OVER 70.5 RUSH YDS | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
WVU@BYU | WVU +20.5 | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
SAMST@NMEXST | SAMST -1.5 | 54.1% | 3 | LOSS |
EMICH@CMICH | CMICH -148 | 62.8% | 7 | WIN |
SDGST@NOILL | SDGST -118 | 55.7% | 3 | WIN |
BAMA@GEORGIA | GEORGIA -125 | 58.7% | 7 | LOSS |
TENN@MISSST | MISSST +7.5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
UK@SC | SC -5.5 | 54.8% | 4 | WIN |
WKY@MIZZST | MIZZST +4.5 | 55.6% | 6 | LOSS |
JAXST@USM | USM -3.5 | 56.0% | 5 | WIN |
NMEXST@NMEX | NMEX -14.5 | 56.9% | 6 | WIN |
ARIZ@IOWAST | ROCCO BECHT UNDER 1.5 PASS TDS | 55.5% | 5 | WIN |
TCU@ARIZST | JOSH HOOVER PASS YDS UNDER 287.5 | 53.4% | 3 | WIN |
ARIZST@BAYLOR | BAYLOR -130 | 58.4% | 6 | LOSS |
WYO@COLO | WYO +13.5 | 54.1% | 3 | LOSS |
TULANE@OLEMISS | MISS -11.5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |