Senators vs Maple Leafs Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NHL Lines & Props (Apr 22)

Updated: 2025-04-20T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Toronto Maple Leafs aim to extend their series lead to 2-0 as they host the Ottawa Senators in Game 2 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff matchup. The Maple Leafs secured a 6-2 victory in Game 1, showcasing their offensive prowess and solid defensive play.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Apr 22, 2025

Start Time: 7:30 PM EST​

Venue: Scotiabank Arena​

Maple Leafs Record: (52-26)

Senators Record: (45-30)

OPENING ODDS

OTT Moneyline: +156

TOR Moneyline: -187

OTT Spread: +1.5

TOR Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 5.5

OTT
Betting Trends

  • The Ottawa Senators have a 2-3 record against the puck line in their last five games.

TOR
Betting Trends

  • The Toronto Maple Leafs have a 1-4 record against the puck line in their last five games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Despite recent ATS performances, the Maple Leafs are favored with a moneyline of -450, reflecting their strong home-ice advantage and Game 1 performance. The over/under for the game is set at 5.5 goals, indicating expectations of a moderately high-scoring game.

OTT vs. TOR
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Matthews under 3.5 Hits.

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Ottawa vs Toronto Prediction & Odds:
Free NHL Betting Insights for 4/22/25

The April 22, 2025 matchup between the Ottawa Senators and the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena marks a pivotal Game 2 in their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series, with the Maple Leafs holding a 1-0 series lead following a dominant 6-2 victory in Game 1. Toronto wasted no time making a statement in the opener, outskating, outshooting, and outplaying the Senators in nearly every facet of the game. Their offensive depth was on full display, with contributions from both top-line stars and secondary scorers, making it difficult for Ottawa to key in on any one threat. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner led the way as expected, but timely scoring from the likes of William Nylander and Matthew Knies gave Toronto a multi-dimensional attack that the Senators’ defense simply couldn’t contain. The Maple Leafs’ forecheck was relentless, creating turnovers and maintaining possession, while their defensive structure kept Ottawa’s most dangerous weapons on the perimeter. Ilya Samsonov stood tall in net for Toronto, turning aside key shots during the Senators’ early surges and giving his team the stability to build their lead methodically. By the end of the night, the Leafs had fully imposed their style of play, setting a tone they’ll look to reinforce in Game 2. Ottawa enters Game 2 needing a dramatic shift in execution and mindset if they hope to even the series and return home with momentum. While the final score of Game 1 paints a bleak picture, there were moments where the Senators showed flashes of their offensive potential—particularly in the opening ten minutes when they created a few quality chances. However, their inability to capitalize on early opportunities, paired with defensive breakdowns and undisciplined penalties, tilted the game in Toronto’s favor.

Players like Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle, who were instrumental in Ottawa’s regular-season success, were largely neutralized, and they’ll need to break through Toronto’s tight checking and create chaos in front of the net to make a difference. Goaltending also remains a concern, as the six goals allowed in Game 1 underscore the need for better play from their starter and a more coordinated defensive effort in front of him. Ottawa must also improve on special teams; their power play looked disjointed and their penalty kill was exposed by Toronto’s crisp puck movement and aggressive positioning. This game carries the weight of a potential turning point—either the Senators prove they can adapt and push back, or the Maple Leafs seize a commanding 2-0 series lead and send Ottawa home scrambling. Toronto will look to replicate their Game 1 blueprint: strong puck movement, disciplined defense, and a patient yet punishing attack that wears down the opposition over 60 minutes. Ottawa, by contrast, needs to simplify their game—get pucks deep, establish a forecheck, and force Toronto to defend rather than dictate. Physicality could be a factor, with both teams showing flashes of edge in Game 1, and the Senators may look to ratchet up the intensity to unsettle Toronto’s skilled forwards. As Game 2 unfolds, all eyes will be on how Ottawa responds to adversity and whether Toronto can maintain the discipline and composure that made their Game 1 victory look so complete. Either way, the outcome will heavily influence the shape of this series going forward.

Ottawa Senators NHL Preview

The Ottawa Senators enter Game 2 of their first-round playoff series against the Toronto Maple Leafs with their backs partially against the wall following a lopsided 6-2 defeat in Game 1 at Scotiabank Arena. Despite coming into the series as a competitive and fast-developing squad, Ottawa struggled to establish their identity in the opener, overwhelmed by Toronto’s high-octane offense and suffocated by their structured defensive play. The Senators, who have prided themselves on youthful energy and creative puck movement throughout the season, were unable to dictate the pace or generate consistent offensive pressure. Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, and Claude Giroux were all held in check, largely limited to perimeter chances as Toronto effectively clogged shooting lanes and dominated puck possession. Ottawa’s forecheck, usually a hallmark of their aggressive style, was neutralized early, preventing them from creating the kind of sustained pressure needed to generate rebounds or force defensive miscues from the Leafs. Additionally, turnovers in the neutral zone and defensive lapses inside their own blue line proved costly, often resulting in odd-man rushes or extended zone time for the Maple Leafs. Goaltending was another weak spot for Ottawa in Game 1, as their netminder faced heavy pressure and little support from the defensive core in front of him. Defensive coverage breakdowns led to high-quality scoring chances for Toronto, and while not all goals could be pinned directly on the goalie, a sharper, more composed performance between the pipes will be essential if the Senators are to bounce back in Game 2.

The Senators’ blue line, featuring the likes of Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson, needs to be far more assertive—closing gaps quicker, winning board battles, and breaking the puck out more cleanly to prevent Toronto’s forecheck from hemming them in. Offensively, Ottawa must also be more opportunistic. While they managed a couple of solid scoring chances in the opening frame, they couldn’t capitalize, and once Toronto built a multi-goal cushion, the Senators were forced to chase the game—something that played directly into Toronto’s hands. To turn the tide, Ottawa needs to simplify its offensive zone entries, generate traffic in front of the net, and look for dirty, high-effort goals rather than depending solely on finesse plays. Heading into Game 2, the Senators’ focus will be on recalibrating their approach—tightening their structure, pushing the pace in transition, and increasing their physicality to challenge the Leafs’ rhythm. It’s not just about adjustments on the ice but about attitude and leadership. Players like Tkachuk, Giroux, and Jakob Chychrun must lead by example and inject urgency and belief into a locker room that cannot afford to fall into a 2-0 series hole. Ottawa has the tools and talent to compete, but their game plan must center around resilience, defensive accountability, and disciplined execution. If they can strike early and quiet the home crowd, they can shift momentum and restore confidence. A win in Game 2 not only evens the series but also restores credibility to a team looking to prove they belong on the postseason stage. Anything less, however, and they’ll face a steep climb when the series shifts back to Ottawa.

The Toronto Maple Leafs aim to extend their series lead to 2-0 as they host the Ottawa Senators in Game 2 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff matchup. The Maple Leafs secured a 6-2 victory in Game 1, showcasing their offensive prowess and solid defensive play. Ottawa vs Toronto AI Prediction: Free NHL Betting Insights for Apr 22. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs return to Scotiabank Arena for Game 2 of their opening-round playoff series against the Ottawa Senators riding high after a resounding 6-2 victory in Game 1 that showcased the full scope of their offensive firepower and playoff poise. From the opening puck drop, the Leafs controlled possession, dictated pace, and capitalized on nearly every opportunity, setting the tone for what they hope will be a commanding series. Auston Matthews led the way with a multi-point night, effortlessly finding space and creating mismatches, while Mitch Marner’s vision and playmaking once again elevated everyone on the ice with him. Toronto’s second and third lines also stepped up, with William Nylander and Matthew Knies each contributing, a promising sign of the scoring depth Toronto will need to make a deep run. Just as critical was the Leafs’ team defense, which limited Ottawa’s top scorers to mostly perimeter looks and denied them sustained zone time. Goalie Ilya Samsonov turned in a focused and efficient performance, making key saves early that prevented Ottawa from gaining confidence, and allowing his teammates to build a multi-goal cushion that quickly deflated the visitors. What made the Leafs’ Game 1 performance particularly impressive was their discipline and structure—two things that have eluded them in past postseasons. They committed minimal turnovers in high-danger areas, kept their defensive zone coverage tight, and transitioned quickly up ice, often catching Ottawa flat-footed in the neutral zone.

Special teams also played a role, with Toronto’s power play striking effectively while their penalty kill neutralized Ottawa’s attempts to close the gap. Head coach Sheldon Keefe will undoubtedly look to replicate that exact blueprint in Game 2: controlled zone entries, puck support across all three zones, and high shot volume from quality areas. But beyond the X’s and O’s, it’s the sense of composure that stands out—this version of the Maple Leafs appears to be more mature, more aware of the stakes, and more committed to executing the kind of consistent, playoff-style hockey that’s eluded them in previous springs. Their top players are leading the way, their supporting cast is delivering, and the crowd at Scotiabank Arena is feeding off the energy and reciprocating it. Heading into Game 2, the Maple Leafs know the importance of not allowing Ottawa back into the series. A 2-0 lead heading into a road swing would put them firmly in control and give them the psychological edge over a younger, less battle-tested Senators squad. Toronto must remain aggressive, but not careless—maintain their physicality, continue their speed-driven puck pursuit, and avoid the penalties or lapses in focus that could give Ottawa life. The key will be to start strong once again, use their speed to stretch the Senators’ defensive structure, and test the goaltender early and often. If Matthews, Marner, and Nylander continue to drive play with the same intensity and the defensive corps holds its form, Toronto has every reason to believe that Game 2 can mirror the success of Game 1. With momentum in hand and a city rallying behind them, the Maple Leafs are poised to reinforce their dominance and take one step closer to advancing deeper into the postseason.

Ottawa vs. Toronto Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of data on each player. In fact, anytime the Senators and Maple Leafs play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Scotiabank Arena in Apr can often follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Matthews under 3.5 Hits.

Ottawa vs. Toronto Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over mountains of data from every simulation between the Senators and Maple Leafs and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.

The Algorithm has been most fixated on the growing weight human bettors often put on Toronto’s strength factors between a Senators team going up against a possibly improved Maple Leafs team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NHL AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Ottawa vs Toronto picks, computer picks Senators vs Maple Leafs, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NHL schedule

Senators Betting Trends

The Ottawa Senators have a 2-3 record against the puck line in their last five games.

Maple Leafs Betting Trends

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a 1-4 record against the puck line in their last five games.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs Matchup Trends

Despite recent ATS performances, the Maple Leafs are favored with a moneyline of -450, reflecting their strong home-ice advantage and Game 1 performance. The over/under for the game is set at 5.5 goals, indicating expectations of a moderately high-scoring game.

Ottawa vs. Toronto Game Info

Ottawa vs Toronto starts on April 22, 2025 at 7:30 PM EST.

Venue: Scotiabank Arena.

Spread: Toronto -1.5
Moneyline: Ottawa +156, Toronto -187
Over/Under: 5.5

Ottawa: (45-30)  |  Toronto: (52-26)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Matthews under 3.5 Hits.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

Despite recent ATS performances, the Maple Leafs are favored with a moneyline of -450, reflecting their strong home-ice advantage and Game 1 performance. The over/under for the game is set at 5.5 goals, indicating expectations of a moderately high-scoring game.

OTT trend: The Ottawa Senators have a 2-3 record against the puck line in their last five games.

TOR trend: The Toronto Maple Leafs have a 1-4 record against the puck line in their last five games.

See our latest NHL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Ottawa vs. Toronto Odds

Remi is pouring through tons of data on each line. In fact, anytime the Ottawa vs Toronto trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.

Ottawa vs Toronto Opening Odds

OTT Moneyline: +156
TOR Moneyline: -187
OTT Spread: +1.5
TOR Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 5.5

Ottawa vs Toronto Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 19, 2025 12:40PM EDT
Vancouver Canucks
Washington Capitals
10/19/25 12:40PM
Canucks
Capitals
+136
-164
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+146)
O 5.5 (-130)
U 5.5 (+106)
Oct 19, 2025 3:10PM EDT
Edmonton Oilers
Detroit Red Wings
10/19/25 3:10PM
Oilers
Red Wings
-140
+116
-1.5 (+172)
+1.5 (-215)
O 6.5 (+112)
U 6.5 (-138)
Oct 19, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Anaheim Ducks
Chicago Blackhawks
10/19/25 7:10PM
Ducks
Blackhawks
-130
+108
-1.5 (+180)
+1.5 (-225)
O 6.5 (+106)
U 6.5 (-130)

NHL Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs on April 22, 2025 at Scotiabank Arena.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NHL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
MIN@WAS WAS -120 56.2% 3 WIN
WPG@PHI WPG -132 56.7% 3 WIN
NYR@TOR TOR -133 58.6% 4 WIN
CGY@UTA OVER 6 53.8% 3 LOSS
OTT@BUF OTT -108 53.1% 3 LOSS
FLA@DET AARON EKBLAD OVER 0.5 POINTS 54.0% 4 LOSS
LA@MIN LA -110 56.0% 5 LOSS
STL@VAN VAN -121 54.6% 4 LOSS
BUF@BOS BOS -114 54.9% 3 WIN
ANA@SEA SEA -125 54.2% 3 WIN
ANA@SEA TROY TERRY OVER 0.5 POINTS 53.3% 3 LOSS
BOS@WAS ALEX OVECHKIN TO SCORE A GOAL 41.4% 2 LOSS
FLA@EDM MATTHEW TKACHUK OVER 0.5 ASSTS 53.70% 3 WIN
FLA@EDM RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL 54.50% 4 LOSS
EDM@FLA ALEKSANDER BARKOV UNDER 11.5 FACEOFFS WON 53.00% 3 LOSS
EDM@FLA ALEKSANDER BARKOV UNDER 20.5 MINUTES ON THE ICE 54.00% 4 LOSS
EDM@DAL DAL -110 53.80% 3 LOSS
EDM@DAL DAL -125 56.70% 3 WIN
TOR@FLA MAX PACIORETTY UNDER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL 55.60% 5 LOSS
TOR@FLA WILLIAM NYLANDER UNDER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL 54.90% 4 LOSS
CAR@WAS WAS +140 47.70% 3 WIN
WPG@STL STL -110 54.80% 4 WIN
WPG@STL UNDER 5.5 55.70% 4 LOSS
CGY@LA MACKENZIE WEEGAR OVER 2.5 BLOCKS 53.10% 3 WIN
TB@NYR TB +110 49.80% 3 LOSS
SJ@VAN ALEXANDER GEORGIEV UNDER 24.5 SAVES 54.50% 4 LOSS
BUF@TB OVER 6.5 53.90% 3 WIN
NYI@PHI PHI -110 54.00% 3 WIN
LV@EDM RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL 53.00% 3 WIN
EDM@ANA OVER 6 54.20% 3 LOSS
CAR@BOS OVER 5.5 54.00% 3 WIN
NYR@NJ NJ -125 57.30% 4 WIN
COL@CLB OVER 6.5 53.80% 3 WIN
LA@UTA LA -125 54.70% 3 WIN
WPG@LV LV -120 54.80% 3 LOSS
MIN@NJ UNDER 5.5 53.80% 3 WIN
NSH@PHI PHI -120 55.00% 3 WIN
OTT@BUF OVER 6 54.00% 3 LOSS
CHI@SJ CHI +105 51.60% 3 LOSS
WAS@LA WAS +105 51.20% 3 LOSS
TB@CAR CAR -130 56.40% 3 WIN
NSH@BOS BOS -125 55.20% 3 LOSS
MIN@SEA SEA -120 54.60% 3 LOSS
SJ@TOR OVER 6 54.80% 3 LOSS
BUF@MON MON -110 54.70% 4 WIN
BOS@PIT PIT -120 54.90% 3 LOSS
LA@STL STL -110 53.70% 3 WIN
LA@DAL DAL -125 56.40% 4 WIN
PIT@PHI PHI -116 54.20% 3 WIN
DET@MIN MIN -115 54.20% 3 LOSS
MIN@DET DET -130 58.00% 3 LOSS