Penguins vs Stars Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NHL Lines & Props (Apr 05)

Updated: 2025-04-03T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Pittsburgh Penguins are set to face the Dallas Stars on April 5, 2025, at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. This inter-conference matchup features two teams with contrasting seasons, as the Stars aim to solidify their playoff positioning while the Penguins seek to play spoiler.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Apr 05, 2025

Start Time: 3:00 PM EST​

Venue: American Airlines Center​

Stars Record: (50-21)

Penguins Record: (30-34)

OPENING ODDS

PIT Moneyline: +238

DAL Moneyline: -298

PIT Spread: +1.5

DAL Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 6

PIT
Betting Trends

  • The Penguins have struggled against the spread (ATS) recently, with a 5-5 record in their last 10 games.

DAL
Betting Trends

  • The Stars have been strong at home, boasting a 10-2-0 record, reflecting their ability to cover the spread in most home games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of Pittsburgh’s last nine road games, indicating a trend toward lower-scoring affairs when they play away from home.

PIT vs. DAL
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: M. Duchene over 1.5 Shots on Goal.

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Pittsburgh vs Dallas Prediction & Odds:
Free NHL Betting Insights for 4/5/25

The Pittsburgh Penguins and the Dallas Stars meet on April 5, 2025, in a late-season inter-conference clash that offers a study in contrast between two teams with drastically different trajectories. The Stars, surging in the Western Conference, have their sights set on playoff seeding and home-ice advantage, while the Penguins, floating just beneath the surface of Eastern Conference relevance, are playing for pride — and perhaps an outside shot at a miracle run. These games can be dangerous for the front-runners. Teams like Pittsburgh, with nothing to lose and a roster full of veterans, can act as landmines. Dallas, however, has been nearly unbeatable at home, boasting a 10-2-0 record inside the American Airlines Center, and they’ve consistently handled business against lesser teams. The last few meetings between these two have leaned heavily in favor of Dallas, and with the Stars looking to sharpen their postseason form, there’s little reason to believe they’ll be taking the Penguins lightly. The energy in Dallas is building, and this game, while technically not a divisional clash, feels like an important tune-up before the real tests begin. Offensively, the Stars are hitting all the right notes. They rank among the league leaders with 3.56 goals per game, thanks to deep scoring contributions throughout their top nine forwards. Mikko Rantanen has been a consistent force, blending elite puck protection with sharp finishing, and Matt Duchene has re-emerged as a key playmaker, thriving in the Stars’ system. Their power play, clicking at 28%, is a finely tuned machine that punishes undisciplined teams — and Pittsburgh has been undisciplined more often than not.

On the back end, Dallas remains one of the stingiest outfits in the NHL, allowing just 2.47 goals per game. Jake Oettinger has bounced back from early-season inconsistency to reestablish himself as a reliable starter, and their defensive core, though not flashy, is brutally effective in limiting high-danger chances. They kill penalties with structure, clear traffic quickly, and limit rebounds. Dallas doesn’t rely on chaos or puck luck — they play like a veteran team that knows who they are and how they win. And it works. The Penguins, meanwhile, feel like a ghost of their former selves. Sitting at 11-12-4, they’ve shown flashes — often thanks to Sidney Crosby, who continues to defy age with a team-leading 74 points — but those moments are buried under an avalanche of defensive breakdowns and inconsistent goaltending. Pittsburgh’s 3.00 goals per game is respectable, and their power play still commands respect with a 23.83% success rate, but their inability to keep the puck out of their own net has been fatal. They allow 3.62 goals per game, and neither Alex Nedeljkovic nor Tristan Jarry has provided the kind of reliability needed to steal games. The penalty kill is subpar, and turnovers in the neutral zone often lead to extended defensive-zone shifts that sap their offensive momentum. The Penguins can still score, but they can’t stop bleeding long enough to control the pace. Against a clinical team like Dallas, that’s a recipe for disaster. If Pittsburgh wants to surprise anyone on Saturday, they’ll need to outwork the Stars for three full periods — and that’s been in short supply this year.

Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Preview

The Pittsburgh Penguins come limping into their April 5, 2025 matchup against the Dallas Stars as a team that feels like it’s holding on with duct tape and vibes. With an 11-12-4 record and little room for error, the Penguins are clinging to the ghost of postseason relevance while being dragged down by a barrage of defensive lapses, underwhelming goaltending, and a level of inconsistency that could make a therapist cry. Their recent games have been a roller coaster — not the fun kind with loops, but the kind with rickety tracks and a questionable safety record. What’s more concerning is how predictable their struggles have become. The Penguins have given up 3.62 goals per game, and when you match that against a team like Dallas that scores over 3.5, it’s like handing over the keys to the Ferrari and asking politely not to crash it. Their road form hasn’t offered much salvation either, and the idea of going into American Airlines Center — where Dallas is 10-2-0 — doesn’t scream “rebound opportunity.” If the Penguins want to keep this thing from becoming a one-sided tutorial, they’ll need to find something they haven’t had much of this year: discipline, structure, and pushback. Offensively, the Penguins aren’t hopeless. In fact, they’re passably competent. They average a decent 3.00 goals per game, and as always, they go as far as Sidney Crosby drags them. The 37-year-old captain is still putting up elite numbers, leading the team with 74 points and showing up in every shift like it’s Game 7.

He’s had help from Rickard Rakell, who has rediscovered his scoring touch and already banked 31 goals. The power play is also alive and occasionally dangerous, converting at 23.83%, which gives them a shot at keeping games competitive — provided they actually draw penalties and don’t spend the whole night chasing the puck. But there’s no escaping the fact that this offense can’t afford mistakes. Every goal they score feels like it has to do double duty, because their defense has developed a habit of collapsing like a folding chair in a thunderstorm. Turnovers, missed assignments, and poor puck support have turned their own blue line into a danger zone. When your best strategy is “score more than we give up,” it might be time to take a long look at the whiteboard. Defensively, the Penguins’ season is basically being held together by tape and goalie pads. They’re allowing 3.62 goals per game, which is, to put it gently, a mess. Neither Alex Nedeljkovic nor Tristan Jarry has been able to seize control of the crease, and both are posting save percentages in the underwhelming .890s. To make matters worse, the team’s penalty kill sits at a middling 77.54%, which is just asking for trouble against Dallas’s lethal power play. The lack of stability on the back end has put too much pressure on their top six to carry the load every night, and it shows. Against a methodical, structured, and offensively deep Stars squad, the Penguins’ bad habits — if not corrected — could spiral into a blowout. They’ll need to play above their heads, protect the puck like it’s playoff overtime, and get some miracle-tier goaltending to escape Dallas with anything other than another tick in the “L” column.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are set to face the Dallas Stars on April 5, 2025, at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. This inter-conference matchup features two teams with contrasting seasons, as the Stars aim to solidify their playoff positioning while the Penguins seek to play spoiler. Pittsburgh vs Dallas AI Prediction: Free NHL Betting Insights for Apr 05. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Dallas Stars NHL Preview

The Dallas Stars enter their April 5, 2025 showdown against the Pittsburgh Penguins with confidence, cohesion, and a 10-2-0 home record that should make any visitor uncomfortable. Sitting comfortably near the top of the Western Conference, the Stars are not just playoff-bound — they’re building the kind of momentum that teams crave heading into the postseason. A 16-9-0 overall record reflects a campaign built on two-way dominance, with an offense that scores in waves and a defense that rarely breaks. What’s made them particularly deadly at home is their ability to dictate the tempo, adapt to different styles of play, and simply outlast opponents in tight games. Their crowd knows it too — American Airlines Center has become a cauldron for visiting teams who find themselves quickly overwhelmed by Dallas’s speed, structure, and depth. Against a struggling Penguins team with a paper-thin margin for error, the Stars will look to pounce early and continue their trend of handling weaker competition with professional, borderline merciless efficiency. Offensively, the Stars are rolling. Averaging 3.56 goals per game, they rank near the top of the league in scoring, and it’s not just one line doing the damage. Mikko Rantanen leads the charge, playing with a level of controlled aggression and elite puck protection that opens space for his teammates. His 69 points on the season include a healthy blend of goals and assists, making him one of the most complete forwards in the league.

Alongside him, Matt Duchene has been a quiet revelation, putting up impressive numbers while also anchoring the second power-play unit and providing leadership in key moments. Their top power play unit is lethal, boasting a 28% success rate, which means undisciplined teams like the Penguins — who have a bottom-third penalty kill — are at serious risk every time they go down a man. What makes Dallas’s power play so effective isn’t just skill; it’s movement. They rotate through the umbrella, constantly creating new passing lanes, and they’re not afraid to shoot from distance with traffic in front. Defensively, Dallas has been as solid as they come. They’re giving up just 2.47 goals per game, a testament to both their structured defensive system and Jake Oettinger’s bounce-back season between the pipes. After an uneven start to the year, Oettinger has settled into a rhythm, consistently delivering quality starts and big saves in tight games. He benefits from a blue line that doesn’t overcomplicate things — Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell play clean, simple hockey that neutralizes opposing forechecks and limits second-chance opportunities. Dallas’s penalty kill has also been quietly effective, shutting down high-powered units and transitioning quickly into offensive pressure. When you factor in their overall discipline, puck management, and line depth, it’s clear why the Stars have been able to bully teams at home. They don’t beat themselves. Against a Pittsburgh squad that’s hemorrhaging goals and struggling to find rhythm, the Stars will look to strike early, play from ahead, and turn this into another home-ice tutorial in how a playoff team handles business.

Pittsburgh vs. Dallas Prop Picks (AI)

Remi is pouring through loads of datapoints on each player. In fact, anytime the Penguins and Stars play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at American Airlines Center in Apr seemingly never follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: M. Duchene over 1.5 Shots on Goal.

Pittsburgh vs. Dallas Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over mountains of data from every facet between the Penguins and Stars and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.

Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most keyed in on the linear correlation of factor human bettors regularly put on coaching factors between a Penguins team going up against a possibly deflated Stars team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NHL AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Pittsburgh vs Dallas picks, computer picks Penguins vs Stars, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NHL schedule

Penguins Betting Trends

The Penguins have struggled against the spread (ATS) recently, with a 5-5 record in their last 10 games.

Stars Betting Trends

The Stars have been strong at home, boasting a 10-2-0 record, reflecting their ability to cover the spread in most home games.

Penguins vs. Stars Matchup Trends

The total has gone UNDER in eight of Pittsburgh’s last nine road games, indicating a trend toward lower-scoring affairs when they play away from home.

Pittsburgh vs. Dallas Game Info

Pittsburgh vs Dallas starts on April 05, 2025 at 3:00 PM EST.

Venue: American Airlines Center.

Spread: Dallas -1.5
Moneyline: Pittsburgh +238, Dallas -298
Over/Under: 6

Pittsburgh: (30-34)  |  Dallas: (50-21)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: M. Duchene over 1.5 Shots on Goal.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

The total has gone UNDER in eight of Pittsburgh’s last nine road games, indicating a trend toward lower-scoring affairs when they play away from home.

PIT trend: The Penguins have struggled against the spread (ATS) recently, with a 5-5 record in their last 10 games.

DAL trend: The Stars have been strong at home, boasting a 10-2-0 record, reflecting their ability to cover the spread in most home games.

See our latest NHL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Pittsburgh vs. Dallas Odds

Remi is pouring through tons of data points on each player. In fact, anytime the Pittsburgh vs Dallas trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps can often follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Pittsburgh vs Dallas Opening Odds

PIT Moneyline: +238
DAL Moneyline: -298
PIT Spread: +1.5
DAL Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 6

Pittsburgh vs Dallas Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 19, 2025 12:40PM EDT
Vancouver Canucks
Washington Capitals
10/19/25 12:40PM
Canucks
Capitals
+137
-163
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+160)
O 6 (+100)
U 6 (-120)
Oct 19, 2025 3:10PM EDT
Edmonton Oilers
Detroit Red Wings
10/19/25 3:10PM
Oilers
Red Wings
-135
+115
-1.5 (+180)
+1.5 (-220)
O 6 (-122)
U 6 (+102)
Oct 19, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Anaheim Ducks
Chicago Blackhawks
10/19/25 7:10PM
Ducks
Blackhawks
-133
+112
-1.5 (+185)
+1.5 (-225)
O 6 (-117)
U 6 (-103)

NHL Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Dallas Stars on April 05, 2025 at American Airlines Center.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NHL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
MIN@WAS WAS -120 56.2% 3 WIN
WPG@PHI WPG -132 56.7% 3 WIN
NYR@TOR TOR -133 58.6% 4 WIN
CGY@UTA OVER 6 53.8% 3 LOSS
OTT@BUF OTT -108 53.1% 3 LOSS
FLA@DET AARON EKBLAD OVER 0.5 POINTS 54.0% 4 LOSS
LA@MIN LA -110 56.0% 5 LOSS
STL@VAN VAN -121 54.6% 4 LOSS
BUF@BOS BOS -114 54.9% 3 WIN
ANA@SEA SEA -125 54.2% 3 WIN
ANA@SEA TROY TERRY OVER 0.5 POINTS 53.3% 3 LOSS
BOS@WAS ALEX OVECHKIN TO SCORE A GOAL 41.4% 2 LOSS
FLA@EDM MATTHEW TKACHUK OVER 0.5 ASSTS 53.70% 3 WIN
FLA@EDM RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL 54.50% 4 LOSS
EDM@FLA ALEKSANDER BARKOV UNDER 11.5 FACEOFFS WON 53.00% 3 LOSS
EDM@FLA ALEKSANDER BARKOV UNDER 20.5 MINUTES ON THE ICE 54.00% 4 LOSS
EDM@DAL DAL -110 53.80% 3 LOSS
EDM@DAL DAL -125 56.70% 3 WIN
TOR@FLA MAX PACIORETTY UNDER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL 55.60% 5 LOSS
TOR@FLA WILLIAM NYLANDER UNDER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL 54.90% 4 LOSS
CAR@WAS WAS +140 47.70% 3 WIN
WPG@STL STL -110 54.80% 4 WIN
WPG@STL UNDER 5.5 55.70% 4 LOSS
CGY@LA MACKENZIE WEEGAR OVER 2.5 BLOCKS 53.10% 3 WIN
TB@NYR TB +110 49.80% 3 LOSS
SJ@VAN ALEXANDER GEORGIEV UNDER 24.5 SAVES 54.50% 4 LOSS
BUF@TB OVER 6.5 53.90% 3 WIN
NYI@PHI PHI -110 54.00% 3 WIN
LV@EDM RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL 53.00% 3 WIN
EDM@ANA OVER 6 54.20% 3 LOSS
CAR@BOS OVER 5.5 54.00% 3 WIN
NYR@NJ NJ -125 57.30% 4 WIN
COL@CLB OVER 6.5 53.80% 3 WIN
LA@UTA LA -125 54.70% 3 WIN
WPG@LV LV -120 54.80% 3 LOSS
MIN@NJ UNDER 5.5 53.80% 3 WIN
NSH@PHI PHI -120 55.00% 3 WIN
OTT@BUF OVER 6 54.00% 3 LOSS
CHI@SJ CHI +105 51.60% 3 LOSS
WAS@LA WAS +105 51.20% 3 LOSS
TB@CAR CAR -130 56.40% 3 WIN
NSH@BOS BOS -125 55.20% 3 LOSS
MIN@SEA SEA -120 54.60% 3 LOSS
SJ@TOR OVER 6 54.80% 3 LOSS
BUF@MON MON -110 54.70% 4 WIN
BOS@PIT PIT -120 54.90% 3 LOSS
LA@STL STL -110 53.70% 3 WIN
LA@DAL DAL -125 56.40% 4 WIN
PIT@PHI PHI -116 54.20% 3 WIN
DET@MIN MIN -115 54.20% 3 LOSS
MIN@DET DET -130 58.00% 3 LOSS