Falcons vs Saints Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NFL Lines & Props (Nov 23)
Updated: 2025-11-16T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Atlanta Falcons travel to face the New Orleans Saints on November 23, 2025, a matchup where the Falcons look to stabilize after a rough start while the Saints aim to regain credibility at home, making this NFC South showdown more about execution and momentum than records alone.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.
GAME INFO
Date: Nov 23, 2025
Start Time: 5:25 PM EST
Venue: Caesars Superdome
Saints Record: (2-8)
Falcons Record: (3-7)
OPENING ODDS
ATL Moneyline: +108
NO Moneyline: -129
ATL Spread: +1.5
NO Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 39.5
ATL
Betting Trends
- indicating their results against the spread have been inconsistent.
NO
Betting Trends
- The New Orleans Saints have an ATS cover rate near 30% this season, one of the lowest in the league, signaling that even at home they’ve struggled to beat expectations.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- From a spread-perspective, this game presents a subtle contrast: the Falcons’ modest but improved ATS performance suggests they could offer value on the road, while the Saints’ extremely low cover rate at home raises red flags about their ability to close out games and perform in their venue—meaning tempo control, turnover margin, and hidden-yardage battles may carry more predictive power than name recognition.
ATL vs. NO
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: K. Cousins under 218.5 Passing Yards.
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Atlanta vs New Orleans Prediction & Odds:
Free NFL Betting Insights for 11/23/25
The November 23 matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints arrives as a clash between two NFC South teams fighting to reestablish identity, stability, and week-to-week competitiveness, creating a matchup where execution, tempo control, and situational discipline will matter far more than overall record or preseason expectations. Atlanta enters with the slightly steadier ATS profile and the clearer path to improvement, leaning on a run-first approach that, when functioning, gives their offense the balance it desperately needs to avoid predictable passing downs that have too often derailed their rhythm. Their quarterback play has improved when protected and paired with play-action, but the Falcons still struggle with consistency in sustaining drives, converting third downs, and avoiding the negative plays that have repeatedly flipped field position and momentum against them. The Saints, meanwhile, carry one of the lowest home ATS rates in the league, a statistic that reflects deeper structural issues on both sides of the ball—an offense that has struggled to find timing, efficiency, and explosiveness, and a defense that has yielded too many long drives and allowed opponents to dictate tempo. New Orleans must rely on quick passing, run-game balance, and simplified reads to generate rhythm, because long-developing plays have too often led to stalled drives, sacks, or turnovers. Defensively, they must tighten gap discipline, improve tackling, and reduce explosive plays, which have repeatedly cost them early momentum and allowed opponents to control the middle portion of games.
Atlanta’s opportunity lies in exploiting this lack of structure: if their run game sets up manageable downs and opens space for chunk gains, they can force the Saints into reactive defense and slow down New Orleans’ attempts at manufacturing momentum through tempo or scripted drives. The Saints, however, gain advantage at home if they start fast, reduce offensive variance, and lean heavily on crowd energy to boost defensive pressure and disrupt Atlanta’s cadence. Special teams looms as a major swing factor, as both teams have struggled with field-position issues, and hidden yardage could decide whether this remains a tight, low-scoring contest or tilts sharply toward a team that capitalizes on short fields. Emotionally, Atlanta enters with less pressure and greater freedom to dictate the script, while New Orleans plays under an expectation cloud created by home struggles, making early possessions especially critical in determining tone and confidence on both sides. Ultimately, this matchup will hinge on whether Atlanta can maintain discipline, avoid the costly turnovers that have defined too many of their losses, and force the Saints into chasing the game, or whether New Orleans can finally turn home-field energy into sustained execution by protecting the ball, winning the trenches, and finishing drives with touchdowns instead of field goals. In a matchup where neither team has earned trust yet, the winner will be the one that steadies first, handles situational football with maturity, and eliminates the self-inflicted wounds that have shaped both teams’ narratives throughout the season.
Get live NFL odds and precise AI NFL picks, predictions, and cover probabilities.
Divine Deablo to return to practice to this weekhttps://t.co/EARbZZtAQl pic.twitter.com/nNwlAMai0S
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) November 17, 2025
Atlanta Falcons NFL Preview
The Atlanta Falcons enter this matchup against the New Orleans Saints as a road team still searching for consistent identity but carrying enough structural strengths to present a legitimate threat if they can maintain discipline, avoid early mistakes, and impose the physical offensive style that has occasionally given them stability throughout an otherwise erratic season. Their offensive blueprint on the road must begin with establishing the run, not only to generate manageable second and third downs but also to open up play-action concepts that help their quarterback avoid obvious passing situations where protection tends to break down and drives stall; when Atlanta stays ahead of the sticks, their entire offensive operation becomes more efficient, with receivers gaining separation more naturally and the quarterback playing decisively rather than reacting under duress. The Falcons have shown that their run game can travel, but its effectiveness hinges on offensive-line cohesion, eliminating penalties, and staying patient even in neutral-game scripts where abandoning balance has repeatedly led to predictable sequences. Through the air, Atlanta must emphasize quick timing throws, intermediate crossers, and layered route concepts that exploit the Saints’ defensive inconsistencies, particularly in zones where New Orleans has struggled with communication lapses and tackling reliability, giving the Falcons opportunities for hidden yardage and manageable drive extensions. Defensively, the Falcons face the task of tightening coverage discipline, improving tackling efficiency, and preventing the explosive plays that have burned them in critical situations, especially on the road where momentum shifts quickly and their secondary has struggled with maintaining leverage when forced into extended coverage.
Their pass rush can be impactful, but only when early-down defense succeeds in slowing New Orleans’ run attempts and quick passes, funneling the Saints into long-yardage situations where Atlanta’s front can collapse the pocket with more consistency. Gap integrity and containment will be especially important, as New Orleans is at its best when manufacturing yards after catch and exploiting missed assignments; Atlanta cannot afford defensive lapses or miscommunication that hand the Saints free possessions or short-field scoring chances. Special teams, often a quiet determinant of Atlanta’s road outcomes, must be sharp—coverage units must avoid giving up long returns, the kicking game must remain consistent, and field-position swings must be minimized to prevent unnecessary strain on their defense. Emotionally, the Falcons enter with fewer external expectations than the Saints and can use that freedom to play aggressively but must avoid confusing aggression with recklessness, as turnovers and ill-timed penalties have repeatedly sabotaged winnable road performances. Atlanta’s path to success lies in controlling pace, sustaining drives, keeping their defense off the field for extended stretches, and turning red-zone opportunities into touchdowns rather than field goals, because settling repeatedly will embolden a Saints team desperate to feed off home-crowd energy. If the Falcons execute cleanly, maintain balance, protect the football, and force New Orleans into a reactive game script, they carry a realistic chance to take command as the more structurally steady team, turning their inconsistent season into a statement road performance built on patience, physicality, and situational maturity.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
New Orleans Saints NFL Preview
The New Orleans Saints return home for this matchup against the Atlanta Falcons carrying urgency, frustration, and a clear need to reestablish their identity in a season where execution has repeatedly fallen short of expectation, making this contest not just a divisional meeting but a proving ground for whether they can still summon the discipline and structure required to defend their home field. Their offense, which has struggled to find rhythm and efficiency, must simplify and lean heavily on quick passes, motion concepts, and early-down balance to avoid the long-yardage situations that have plagued them throughout the season and allowed opponents to dictate defensive pressure; staying ahead of the sticks is essential because when the Saints are forced into predictable passing downs, protection issues and timing breakdowns tend to snowball into stalled drives, sacks, or turnovers. The run game must be more than a token effort—New Orleans needs consistent gains to soften Atlanta’s front, stabilize the pocket, and create play-action opportunities that give their quarterback cleaner reads and allow their receivers to attack space rather than win repeatedly in tight coverage. Defensively, the Saints must reclaim physicality at the point of attack, controlling gaps, securing tackles, and eliminating the explosive plays that have undermined their ability to sustain momentum; Atlanta’s offense thrives when its run game stays on schedule, so New Orleans must focus on shutting down early-down carries, forcing the Falcons into third-and-medium or third-and-long where the Saints can deploy pressure packages and disguise coverage to disrupt timing.
Their secondary must be sharp, disciplined, and aggressive in contesting passes, as Atlanta’s receivers have shown an ability to exploit soft zones and generate yards after catch if defenders give too much cushion or lose leverage. Special teams represent an area where New Orleans simply cannot afford mistakes—field-position gaps, missed tackles on returns, or inconsistent kicking have already cost them critical sequences this season, and hidden yards will matter even more in what projects to be a close, grind-heavy divisional game. The emotional component looms large: the Saints have struggled at home this year, and while the crowd will bring energy, New Orleans must translate that energy into composed execution rather than forcing plays, committing mental errors, or unraveling under pressure. A fast start—whether through a sustained opening drive or an early defensive stop—would do wonders for restoring confidence, but the Saints must maintain that urgency throughout the game, as lapses in focus have too often led to sudden momentum swings they could not recover from. Ultimately, New Orleans’ path to a meaningful home performance lies in playing cleaner, more structured football: sustained drives, minimized turnovers, strong tackling, disciplined coverage, red-zone efficiency, and the physicality to force Atlanta off script. If the Saints can marry emotional urgency with the methodical composure they have lacked, they have the tools to turn this into a stabilizing home victory rather than another chapter in a season defined by missed opportunities.
Fuck the stupid ass Falcons Week!!! https://t.co/mJlUUl3R0V
— Solo (@T_Hart82) November 17, 2025
Atlanta vs New Orleans Prop Picks (AI)
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of data on each line. In fact, anytime the Falcons and Saints play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Caesars Superdome in Nov almost always follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Atlanta vs New Orleans Prediction (AI)
Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over millions of data from every past game between the Falcons and Saints and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.
The Algorithm has been most watching on the trending emphasis knucklehead sportsbettors regularly put on player performance factors between a Falcons team going up against a possibly improved Saints team. In reality, the true game analytics might reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line specifically.
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Below is our current AI Atlanta vs New Orleans picks, computer picks Falcons vs Saints, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
| DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACTIVE PICKS LOCKED - SEE NOW | ||||||
These picks update as information changes—injury reports, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL schedule.
Atlanta Betting Trends
indicating their results against the spread have been inconsistent.
New Orleans Betting Trends
The New Orleans Saints have an ATS cover rate near 30% this season, one of the lowest in the league, signaling that even at home they’ve struggled to beat expectations.
Falcons vs. Saints Matchup Trends
From a spread-perspective, this game presents a subtle contrast: the Falcons’ modest but improved ATS performance suggests they could offer value on the road, while the Saints’ extremely low cover rate at home raises red flags about their ability to close out games and perform in their venue—meaning tempo control, turnover margin, and hidden-yardage battles may carry more predictive power than name recognition.
Atlanta vs. New Orleans Game Info
Atlanta vs New Orleans starts on November 23, 2025 at 5:25 PM EST.
Venue: Caesars Superdome.
Spread: New Orleans -1.5
Moneyline: Atlanta +108, New Orleans -129
Over/Under: 39.5
Atlanta: (3-7) | New Orleans: (2-8)
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: K. Cousins under 218.5 Passing Yards.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
From a spread-perspective, this game presents a subtle contrast: the Falcons’ modest but improved ATS performance suggests they could offer value on the road, while the Saints’ extremely low cover rate at home raises red flags about their ability to close out games and perform in their venue—meaning tempo control, turnover margin, and hidden-yardage battles may carry more predictive power than name recognition.
ATL trend: indicating their results against the spread have been inconsistent.
NO trend: The New Orleans Saints have an ATS cover rate near 30% this season, one of the lowest in the league, signaling that even at home they’ve struggled to beat expectations.
See our latest NFL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Atlanta vs. New Orleans Odds
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Atlanta vs New Orleans trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme hostile environments seemingly never follow normal, predictable patterns.
| ATL Moneyline | +108 |
|---|---|
| NO Moneyline | -129 |
| ATL Spread | +1.5 |
| NO Spread | -1.5 |
| Over / Under | 39.5 |
Atlanta vs New Orleans Live Odds
| Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Dec 7, 2025 1:00PM EST
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12/7/25 1PM
Saints
Buccaneers
|
–
–
|
+360
-460
|
+8.5 (-112)
-8.5 (-108)
|
O 41.5 (-115)
U 41.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Dec 7, 2025 1:00PM EST
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
12/7/25 1PM
Colts
Jaguars
|
–
–
|
-124
+104
|
-1.5 (-112)
+1.5 (-108)
|
O 46.5 (-115)
U 46.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Dec 7, 2025 1:00PM EST
Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens
12/7/25 1PM
Steelers
Ravens
|
–
–
|
+230
-280
|
+5.5 (-105)
-5.5 (-115)
|
O 43.5 (-102)
U 43.5 (-120)
|
|
|
Dec 7, 2025 1:00PM EST
Washington Commanders
Minnesota Vikings
12/7/25 1PM
Commanders
Vikings
|
–
–
|
-122
+104
|
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
|
O 43.5 (-115)
U 43.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Dec 7, 2025 1:00PM EST
Cincinnati Bengals
Buffalo Bills
12/7/25 1PM
Bengals
Bills
|
–
–
|
+220
-270
|
+5.5 (-102)
-5.5 (-120)
|
O 53.5 (-105)
U 53.5 (-115)
|
|
|
Dec 7, 2025 1:00PM EST
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
12/7/25 1PM
Dolphins
Jets
|
–
–
|
-154
+130
|
-3 (+100)
+3 (-122)
|
O 41.5 (-102)
U 41.5 (-120)
|
|
|
Dec 7, 2025 1:00PM EST
Seattle Seahawks
Atlanta Falcons
12/7/25 1PM
Seahawks
Falcons
|
–
–
|
-340
+275
|
-6.5 (-115)
+6.5 (-105)
|
O 44.5 (-108)
U 44.5 (-112)
|
|
|
Dec 7, 2025 1:00PM EST
Tennessee Titans
Cleveland Browns
12/7/25 1PM
Titans
Browns
|
–
–
|
+172
-205
|
+3.5 (-105)
-3.5 (-115)
|
O 33.5 (-115)
U 33.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Dec 7, 2025 4:05PM EST
Denver Broncos
Las Vegas Raiders
12/7/25 4:05PM
Broncos
Raiders
|
–
–
|
-390
+310
|
-7.5 (+100)
+7.5 (-122)
|
O 40.5 (-106)
U 40.5 (-114)
|
|
|
Dec 7, 2025 4:25PM EST
Los Angeles Rams
Arizona Cardinals
12/7/25 4:25PM
Rams
Cardinals
|
–
–
|
-430
+340
|
-8.5 (-105)
+8.5 (-115)
|
O 47.5 (-118)
U 47.5 (-104)
|
|
|
Dec 7, 2025 4:25PM EST
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers
12/7/25 4:25PM
Bears
Packers
|
–
–
|
+265
-330
|
+6.5 (-105)
-6.5 (-115)
|
O 44.5 (-110)
U 44.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Dec 7, 2025 8:20PM EST
Houston Texans
Kansas City Chiefs
12/7/25 8:20PM
Texans
Chiefs
|
–
–
|
+156
-186
|
+3.5 (-108)
-3.5 (-112)
|
O 41.5 (-118)
U 41.5 (-104)
|
|
|
Dec 8, 2025 8:15PM EST
Philadelphia Eagles
Los Angeles Chargers
12/8/25 8:15PM
Eagles
Chargers
|
–
–
|
-142
+120
|
-2.5 (-110)
+2.5 (-110)
|
O 41.5 (-110)
U 41.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Dec 11, 2025 8:15PM EST
Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12/11/25 8:15PM
Falcons
Buccaneers
|
–
–
|
+235
-290
|
+6.5 (-115)
-6.5 (-105)
|
O 43.5 (-118)
U 43.5 (-104)
|
|
|
Dec 14, 2025 1:00PM EST
New York Jets
Jacksonville Jaguars
12/14/25 1PM
Jets
Jaguars
|
–
–
|
+420
-560
|
+8.5 (-105)
-8.5 (-115)
|
O 43.5 (-105)
U 43.5 (-115)
|
|
|
Dec 14, 2025 1:00PM EST
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
12/14/25 1PM
Ravens
Bengals
|
–
–
|
-148
+126
|
-3 (-102)
+3 (-120)
|
O 51.5 (-105)
U 51.5 (-115)
|
|
|
Dec 14, 2025 1:00PM EST
Washington Commanders
New York Giants
12/14/25 1PM
Commanders
Giants
|
–
–
|
-126
+108
|
-2.5 (-102)
+2.5 (-120)
|
O 47.5 (-115)
U 47.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Dec 14, 2025 1:00PM EST
Las Vegas Raiders
Philadelphia Eagles
12/14/25 1PM
Raiders
Eagles
|
–
–
|
+660
-1000
|
+12.5 (-115)
-12.5 (-105)
|
O 39.5 (-105)
U 39.5 (-115)
|
|
|
Dec 14, 2025 1:00PM EST
Cleveland Browns
Chicago Bears
12/14/25 1PM
Browns
Bears
|
–
–
|
+340
-430
|
+7.5 (-110)
-7.5 (-110)
|
O 39.5 (-110)
U 39.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Dec 14, 2025 1:00PM EST
Arizona Cardinals
Houston Texans
12/14/25 1PM
Cardinals
Texans
|
–
–
|
+260
-320
|
+6.5 (-102)
-6.5 (-120)
|
O 43.5 (-105)
U 43.5 (-115)
|
NFL Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints on November 23, 2025 at Caesars Superdome.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NFL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
| LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@DET | JARED GOFF OVER 21.5 PASS COMP | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| MIN@SEA | KENNETH WALKER UNDER 80.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 55.1% | 5 | WIN |
| ATL@NYJ | KIRK COUSINS UNDER 194.5 PASS YDS | 55.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| BUF@PIT | JAYLEN WARREN OVER 60.5 RUSH YDS | 54.5% | 4 | LOSS |
| DEN@WAS | DEN -6.5 | 53.9% | 3 | LOSS |
| ATL@NYJ | NYJ +3 | 56.9% | 6 | WIN |
| MIN@SEA | SEA -11.5 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
| BUF@PIT | PIT +3.5 | 56.9% | 6 | LOSS |
| HOU@IND | IND -3 | 57.9% | 7 | LOSS |
| LAR@CAR | OVER 44.5 | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
| CHI@PHI | CALEB WILLIAMS OVER 18.5 PASS COMP | 55.7% | 5 | LOSS |
| KC@DAL | DAL +3.5 | 56.3% | 6 | WIN |
| GB@DET | JORDAN LOVE OVER 1.5 PASS TDS | 55.6% | 5 | WIN |
| CIN@BAL | LAMAR JACKSON OVER 24.5 RUSH YDS | 56.7% | 6 | WIN |
| CAR@SF | UNDER 49.5 | 53.0% | 1 | WIN |
| CAR@SF | SF -7 | 54.0% | 3 | WIN |
| CAR@SF | BRYCE YOUNG OVER 61.7 PASS COMP PCT | 55.7% | 5 | WIN |
| NYJ@BAL | DERRICK HENRY OVER 17.5 CARRIES | 53.7% | 3 | WIN |
| JAC@ARI | ARI +2.5 | 55.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| PHI@DAL | DAL +3 | 53.3% | 2 | WIN |
| SEA@TEN | SEA -12 | 57.1% | 7 | LOSS |
| MIN@GB | GB -6 | 54.1% | 3 | WIN |
| IND@KC | IND +3.5 | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
| TB@LAR | UNDER 49.5 | 52.4% | 1 | WIN |
| IND@KC | UNDER 50.5 | 53.1% | 2 | WIN |
| NYJ@BAL | BREECE HALL OVER 18.5 RECV YDS | 56.7% | 6 | WIN |
| PHI@DAL | JAKE ELLIOT OVER 2.5 EXTRA POINTS MADE | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| BUF@HOU | JAMES COOK UNDER 17.5 RUSH ATT | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
| BUF@HOU | JOSH ALLEN UNDER 63.3 PASS COMP PCT | 56.8% | 6 | LOSS |
| DAL@LV | UNDER 49.5 | 54.3% | 3 | WIN |
| DAL@LV | BROCK BOWERS OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS | 57.6% | 7 | WIN |
| CAR@ATL | BRYCE YOUNG UNDER 0.5 INT | 56.1% | 6 | WIN |
| KC@DEN | PATRICK MAHOMES UNDER 266.5 PASS YDS | 55.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| SF@ARI | SF -3 | 56.4% | 6 | WIN |
| GB@NYG | GB -7 | 54.3% | 4 | PUSH |
| LAC@JAC | LAC -3 | 53.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| SEA@LAR | SEA +3.5 | 57.2% | 7 | WIN |
| CHI@MIN | MIN -2.5 | 53.4% | 2 | LOSS |
| DET@PHI | DET +3 | 55.8% | 5 | LOSS |
| KC@DEN | DEN +4.5 | 53.0% | 2 | WIN |
| DET@PHI | UNDER 47 | 53.4% | 2 | WIN |
| SEA@LAR | OVER 48.5 | 54.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| NYJ@NE | UNDER 43.5 | 53.4% | 3 | WIN |
| NYJ@NE | JAMIEN SHERWOOD OVER 4.5 TACKLES | 56.8% | 6 | LOSS |
| PHI@GB | PHI +1.5 | 54.8% | 4 | WIN |
| PHI@GB | UNDER 45.5 | 52.4% | 2 | WIN |
| PHI@GB | SAQUON BARKLEY OVER 17.5 RUSH ATT | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
| PHI@GB | JOSH JACOBS UNDER 42.5 1ST HALF RUSH + REC YDS | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
| NO@CAR | CAR -5 | 55.4% | 5 | LOSS |
| BAL@MIN | BAL -3.5 | 57.6% | 7 | WIN |
| CLE@NYJ | CLE -130 | 65.4% | 7 | LOSS |