The September 28, 2025 matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium presents a compelling clash of two franchises navigating very different storylines, with Chicago embracing the excitement of a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams who is beginning to justify his top draft billing and the Raiders searching for consistency under veteran Geno Smith. The Bears enter this game with momentum, having not only secured a strong Week 3 win but also covered the spread in back-to-back weeks, thanks to Williams’ growth, a more aggressive offensive scheme, and a defense that has stepped up with timely turnovers and improved situational football. Chicago’s offense has leaned on play-action, quarterback mobility, and quicker reads to help Williams acclimate, while their ground game has provided enough balance to keep defenses from keying exclusively on the pass; the real test this week will be their offensive line, which faces the daunting challenge of keeping Maxx Crosby in check, as the Raiders’ defensive star is riding one of the league’s longest active sack streaks and remains capable of blowing up entire drives single-handedly. On the other side, Las Vegas has the benefit of home field at Allegiant Stadium but has struggled to put together a complete performance, alternating flashes of offensive competence with prolonged lulls that stall drives and leave their defense on the field too long.

Geno Smith has been steady but unspectacular, and with Davante Adams commanding constant defensive attention, the emergence of Tre Tucker as a viable secondary option is crucial to preventing Chicago from rolling coverage and neutralizing their star. The Raiders will look to establish the run to set up play-action and protect Smith from relentless pressure, while their defense must remain disciplined in containing Williams, who has shown the ability to extend plays and punish secondaries when coverage breaks down. With both teams hovering near even ATS marks—Chicago at 2–1 ATS and Las Vegas at 1–2 ATS—this game has the makings of a back-and-forth battle where turnovers, red-zone execution, and special teams play could tip the balance. The total in the mid-40s reflects expectations for modest scoring, but if Williams continues to push the ball downfield and Smith can capitalize on favorable matchups, the game could open up offensively. Ultimately, the matchup boils down to whether the Bears can maintain their upward trajectory, protecting their young quarterback and keeping momentum alive, or if the Raiders can harness the energy of their home crowd, unleash Crosby and their pass rush, and put together the balanced, efficient performance that has eluded them so far this season. Whichever team executes best in high-leverage moments—whether that means Chicago finding another explosive rookie-led spark or Las Vegas finally stringing together four quarters of complementary football—will likely walk away with a crucial victory that shapes the trajectory of their 2025 campaigns.