The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons will open their 2025 NFL campaigns with a pivotal NFC South clash at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, September 7, with both teams entering the season under very different trajectories and expectations. The Buccaneers are riding high off a 10–7 record in 2024 that included a division title and a strong showing from quarterback Baker Mayfield, who cemented himself as the face of the franchise by setting multiple career highs in touchdowns (41), passing yards (over 4,500), and completion percentage, while also ranking second in the league in total offense. Under head coach Todd Bowles, the Bucs struck a well-balanced approach—maintaining defensive integrity while allowing Mayfield to run a high-tempo, play-action-heavy attack featuring Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and breakout tight end Cade Otton. The defense, meanwhile, returned to form with strong showings from Vita Vea, Lavonte David, and Antoine Winfield Jr., making Tampa one of the better-rounded squads in the NFC. The Falcons, meanwhile, are facing a new chapter with rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. taking over for Kirk Cousins, who despite putting up franchise-setting numbers in 2024, did not return for 2025. Head coach Raheem Morris has emphasized youth and explosiveness, revamping the defense under new coordinator Jeff Ulbrich and banking on a unit that allowed nearly 25 points per game last season to show dramatic improvement.

Atlanta has weapons—Bijan Robinson returns as the centerpiece of the offense after an 1,100-yard rushing season, and wideout Drake London is expected to become Penix’s go-to target in a vertical passing scheme built to exploit zone defenses. However, with a rookie QB under center and a largely untested offensive line facing a Bucs front known for pressure packages, the Falcons could struggle to maintain consistency unless their run game dominates. The betting market has responded accordingly, making Tampa Bay slight 1.5-point favorites despite being on the road, with a modest total of 48.5 that suggests an expectation of moderate scoring but room for big plays. Historically, Tampa Bay has had the upper hand in this rivalry in recent years and covered the spread in more than half their games last season, while Atlanta posted a below-average ATS record and has been particularly poor in season openers, losing seven of their last ten openers outright. The key matchups include Tampa’s experienced secondary versus Atlanta’s young receivers, Penix’s poise against a variety of blitz looks, and whether Tampa’s offensive line can continue to give Mayfield time to work the intermediate field. If the Bucs can start fast and avoid the self-inflicted wounds that plagued them in 2023, they should have the offensive firepower and veteran leadership to control the tempo and cover the spread. For Atlanta, the path to victory lies in minimizing Penix’s exposure to pressure, generating takeaways on defense, and winning the time-of-possession battle through Bijan Robinson. Overall, this opener presents a prime opportunity for Tampa Bay to stake another early claim in the NFC South, while Atlanta hopes to surprise with its youth movement—but the edge lies with the more proven, playoff-tested squad.