Pacers vs Thunder Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NBA Lines & Props (Jun 16)

Updated: 2025-06-14T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder will face off in Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals on Monday, June 16, at 8:30 PM EST at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. With the series tied 2-2, both teams aim to take a crucial lead in this best-of-seven showdown.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Jun 16, 2025

Start Time: 8:30 PM EST​

Venue: Paycom Center​

Thunder Record: (68-14)

Pacers Record: (50-32)

OPENING ODDS

IND Moneyline: +332

OKC Moneyline: -441

IND Spread: +9.5

OKC Spread: -9.5

Over/Under: 222.5

IND
Betting Trends

  • The Indiana Pacers have a 9-3 record against the spread (ATS) in the 2025 playoffs.

OKC
Betting Trends

  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 56-28-2 record ATS in the 2024-25 season.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • In Game 4, the Thunder were favored by 6 points but lost 116-107 to the Pacers, marking a significant ATS loss for Oklahoma City.

IND vs. OKC
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup:

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Indiana vs Oklahoma City Prediction & Odds:
Free NBA Betting Insights for 6/16/25

The 2025 NBA Finals between the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder have delivered a thrilling back-and-forth battle that reflects not only the hunger of two young teams but also a clash in stylistic identities, now culminating in a pivotal Game 5 with the series tied 2-2. After Oklahoma City evened the series with a commanding performance in Game 2, Indiana responded in Game 4 with a convincing 116-107 victory, reclaiming momentum and silencing doubts about their staying power in this heavyweight fight. The Pacers, led by the savvy and increasingly clutch Tyrese Haliburton, have leaned into their high-octane offense, smart ball movement, and the versatile scoring of Pascal Siakam, who continues to be a matchup nightmare for the Thunder’s defense. Indiana’s attack has flourished when they’ve been able to push the tempo, find mismatches on switches, and stretch the floor with shooters like Aaron Nesmith and Bennedict Mathurin stepping up in big moments. On the flip side, Oklahoma City has relied heavily on the brilliance of MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, whose ability to score from all three levels, draw contact, and facilitate late-clock offense has kept OKC in every game regardless of deficit. The emergence of rookie Chet Holmgren as a defensive anchor and reliable floor spacer, combined with the athleticism of Jalen Williams and defensive energy from the bench, gives OKC a roster that can match Indiana’s speed and creativity.

Yet, the Thunder have shown signs of fatigue and inconsistency, particularly in late-game possessions when Haliburton orchestrates surgical execution for Indiana’s offense. Defensively, Indiana has done an excellent job funneling penetration into the shot-blocking presence of Myles Turner, who continues to protect the paint while switching comfortably onto perimeter threats when needed. Coaching has also been a chess match—Rick Carlisle’s experience and tactical flexibility have shone through as he adjusts on the fly, while Mark Daigneault’s emphasis on physical defense and composure has kept the Thunder disciplined and focused under pressure. As Game 5 heads back to Oklahoma City, the Thunder will try to re-establish their dominance at Paycom Center, where the crowd’s energy often swings momentum, and they’ve been more efficient on both ends. However, Indiana has proven they can win on the road, showing maturity beyond their years, and their confidence seems to grow with each clutch performance. Game 5 often decides NBA Finals series, with historical trends showing the winner takes the title nearly 75% of the time, so the pressure is enormous. Expect a fierce battle where possessions slow down, every decision is magnified, and star power and execution define the outcome. Whether Haliburton continues to dazzle or Gilgeous-Alexander carries his team, this game will test every ounce of mental toughness, depth, and desire each team has, with the victor poised to seize control of the championship dream.

Indiana Pacers NBA Preview

The Indiana Pacers enter Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals brimming with confidence and resilience, having evened the series with a strong 116-107 win in Game 4 and showcasing a level of poise, offensive dynamism, and team chemistry that continues to catch critics and fans alike by surprise. This Pacers team, guided by the steady leadership and elite basketball IQ of Tyrese Haliburton, has grown increasingly comfortable under the intense spotlight of the Finals, demonstrating their ability to respond to adversity and execute with surgical precision in crunch time. Haliburton’s evolution into a true floor general has transformed Indiana’s offensive ceiling, as he effortlessly blends scoring with unselfish playmaking, and his decision-making late in games has given Indiana an edge against a Thunder squad that thrives on defensive disruption. Alongside him, Pascal Siakam has brought championship pedigree and veteran composure, providing the kind of shot creation, rebounding, and off-ball movement that has allowed Indiana to manipulate Oklahoma City’s switching schemes and generate high-quality looks. Role players like Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, and T.J. McConnell have consistently outperformed expectations, contributing with hustle, timely shooting, and defensive intensity, especially when rotating to challenge perimeter shooters or chase second-chance opportunities.

Defensively, the Pacers have honed in on limiting OKC’s transition game and keeping Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in front with strategic help from Myles Turner, whose rim protection and defensive rebounding have been pivotal in turning momentum and starting fast-breaks. Coach Rick Carlisle has masterfully adjusted Indiana’s spacing and off-ball motion, forcing mismatches and keeping the Thunder’s defense in constant motion, which has worn them down in second halves. The Pacers’ ball movement and willingness to trust each other in late-game possessions have made them one of the most difficult teams to guard, especially when their three-point shooting is clicking. As they hit the road for Game 5, Indiana is embracing the underdog narrative, with a chip on their shoulder and a belief that they can win not just a game, but a championship, by staying true to their identity—fluid offense, disruptive defense, and relentless effort. Paycom Center will be a hostile environment, but Indiana has already proven they can win in that building, and their focus now is to control tempo early, avoid careless turnovers, and capitalize on second-unit matchups when the Thunder rotate in their bench. With each passing game, the Pacers look more seasoned, and their cohesion has elevated them from surprise Finals contender to legitimate title threat. If Haliburton continues to dictate pace, Siakam delivers another efficient night, and their defense contains OKC’s perimeter threats, Indiana could take Game 5 on the road and move one win away from delivering the franchise’s first NBA title—cementing a historic postseason run built on teamwork, toughness, and belief.

The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder will face off in Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals on Monday, June 16, at 8:30 PM EST at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. With the series tied 2-2, both teams aim to take a crucial lead in this best-of-seven showdown. Indiana vs Oklahoma City AI Prediction: Free NBA Betting Insights for Jun 16. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder return to Paycom Center for Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals with the series tied 2-2 and a renewed urgency to defend their home floor after a disappointing 116-107 loss in Game 4 that exposed defensive lapses and inconsistent execution down the stretch. Led by superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has carried the scoring and playmaking load throughout this playoff run, the Thunder must now recalibrate and reestablish the defensive intensity and sharp ball movement that defined their dominant Game 2 performance. Gilgeous-Alexander’s ability to break down defenders off the dribble, draw fouls, and finish in traffic remains the cornerstone of Oklahoma City’s attack, but the team’s supporting cast must elevate their level of play to match Indiana’s depth and cohesion. Jalen Williams has been effective when slashing to the rim and hitting timely threes, but consistency and shot selection will be crucial in maintaining offensive flow. Rookie big man Chet Holmgren, who has dazzled with shot-blocking and perimeter shooting throughout the postseason, must assert himself more physically in the paint and continue altering shots without fouling, particularly when guarding Pascal Siakam or challenging Tyrese Haliburton’s floaters.

Coach Mark Daigneault has relied on a deep bench that includes Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins, but the second unit must produce more reliable scoring bursts and tighten up defensive rotations to avoid allowing Indiana’s bench to swing momentum. Oklahoma City’s success this season has hinged on balanced contributions, fast-break efficiency, and disciplined defense, yet in Game 4 they were plagued by unforced turnovers and sluggish rotations that allowed the Pacers to stretch the floor and dictate tempo. Defensively, the Thunder need to re-engage with their switching schemes and communication to contain Indiana’s off-ball movement and three-point threats, especially when Haliburton orchestrates in spread sets. Paycom Center remains one of the NBA’s most hostile venues for visiting teams, and OKC will look to harness that energy to fuel a fast start and reassert control of the series with a 3-2 lead heading into Game 6. Strategic adjustments may include more staggered minutes for Gilgeous-Alexander to ensure his presence during key stretches and a heavier emphasis on attacking the rim to draw fouls and get Myles Turner into early foul trouble. The Thunder’s ability to execute late-game sets, control the boards, and limit transition opportunities for the Pacers will determine whether they can protect home court and inch closer to capturing their first championship since the franchise’s relocation to Oklahoma City. With youth on their side but experience lacking in comparison to Indiana’s veterans, the Thunder’s maturity will be tested, and Game 5 will serve as the ultimate proving ground for a young squad trying to complete their remarkable rise from rebuild to NBA glory.

Indiana vs. Oklahoma City Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Pacers and Thunder play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Paycom Center in Jun almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup:

Indiana vs. Oklahoma City Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over millions of data from every facet between the Pacers and Thunder and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.

Interestingly enough, the data has been most focused on the growing weight emotional bettors often put on player performance factors between a Pacers team going up against a possibly tired Thunder team. It appears the true game analytics appear to reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line in particular.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NBA AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Indiana vs Oklahoma City picks, computer picks Pacers vs Thunder, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
ACTIVE PICKS LOCKED - SEE NOW

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NBA schedule.

Pacers Betting Trends

The Indiana Pacers have a 9-3 record against the spread (ATS) in the 2025 playoffs.

Thunder Betting Trends

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 56-28-2 record ATS in the 2024-25 season.

Pacers vs. Thunder Matchup Trends

In Game 4, the Thunder were favored by 6 points but lost 116-107 to the Pacers, marking a significant ATS loss for Oklahoma City.

Indiana vs. Oklahoma City Game Info

Indiana vs Oklahoma City starts on June 16, 2025 at 8:30 PM EST.

Spread: Oklahoma City -9.5
Moneyline: Indiana +332, Oklahoma City -441
Over/Under: 222.5

Indiana: (50-32)  |  Oklahoma City: (68-14)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup:. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

In Game 4, the Thunder were favored by 6 points but lost 116-107 to the Pacers, marking a significant ATS loss for Oklahoma City.

IND trend: The Indiana Pacers have a 9-3 record against the spread (ATS) in the 2025 playoffs.

OKC trend: The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 56-28-2 record ATS in the 2024-25 season.

See our latest NBA picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Indiana vs. Oklahoma City Odds

Remi is pouring through mountains of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Indiana vs Oklahoma City trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude can often follow normal, predictable patterns.

Indiana vs Oklahoma City Opening Odds

IND Moneyline: +332
OKC Moneyline: -441
IND Spread: +9.5
OKC Spread: -9.5
Over/Under: 222.5

Indiana vs Oklahoma City Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 21, 2025 7:35PM EDT
Houston Rockets
Oklahoma City Thunder
10/21/25 7:35PM
Rockets
Thunder
+245
-300
+7.5 (-110)
-7.5 (-110)
O 226.5 (-115)
U 226.5 (-105)
Oct 21, 2025 10:00PM EDT
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers
10/21/25 10PM
Warriors
Lakers
-130
+110
-2 (-110)
+2 (-110)
O 224.5 (-110)
U 224.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Brooklyn Nets
Charlotte Hornets
10/22/25 7:10PM
Nets
Hornets
+150
-180
+4.5 (-110)
-4.5 (-110)
O 225.5 (-110)
U 225.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Cleveland Cavaliers
New York Knicks
10/22/25 7:10PM
Cavaliers
Knicks
+140
-170
+3.5 (-105)
-3.5 (-115)
O 229.5 (-110)
U 229.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Miami Heat
Orlando Magic
10/22/25 7:10PM
Heat
Magic
+280
-350
+8 (-110)
-8 (-110)
O 215.5 (-110)
U 215.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Philadelphia 76ers
Boston Celtics
10/22/25 7:40PM
76ers
Celtics
+115
-140
+2.5 (-110)
-2.5 (-110)
O 225.5 (-110)
U 225.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Toronto Raptors
Atlanta Hawks
10/22/25 7:40PM
Raptors
Hawks
+190
-240
+6 (-110)
-6 (-110)
O 235.5 (-110)
U 235.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Washington Wizards
Milwaukee Bucks
10/22/25 8:10PM
Wizards
Bucks
+300
-375
+9 (-110)
-9 (-110)
O 228.5 (-110)
U 228.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Detroit Pistons
Chicago Bulls
10/22/25 8:10PM
Pistons
Bulls
-140
+115
-2 (-110)
+2 (-110)
O 235 (-110)
U 235 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
New Orleans Pelicans
Memphis Grizzlies
10/22/25 8:10PM
Pelicans
Grizzlies
+130
-160
+3.5 (-110)
-3.5 (-110)
O 237 (-110)
U 237 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 9:10PM EDT
Los Angeles Clippers
Utah Jazz
10/22/25 9:10PM
Clippers
Jazz
-375
+300
-9 (-110)
+9 (-110)
O 227 (-110)
U 227 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 9:40PM EDT
San Antonio Spurs
Dallas Mavericks
10/22/25 9:40PM
Spurs
Mavericks
+120
-145
+3 (-115)
-3 (-105)
O 226.5 (+100)
U 226.5 (-120)
Oct 22, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Sacramento Kings
Phoenix Suns
10/22/25 10:10PM
Kings
Suns
+140
-170
+3.5 (-110)
-3.5 (-110)
O 227.5 (-110)
U 227.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Minnesota Timberwolves
Portland Trail Blazers
10/22/25 10:10PM
Timberwolves
Trail Blazers
-170
+140
-3.5 (-110)
+3.5 (-110)
O 219.5 (-110)
U 219.5 (-110)
Oct 23, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Oklahoma City Thunder
Indiana Pacers
10/23/25 7:40PM
Thunder
Pacers
-325
+250
-7.5 (-110)
+7.5 (-110)
O 227 (-110)
U 227 (-110)
Oct 23, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Denver Nuggets
Golden State Warriors
10/23/25 10:10PM
Nuggets
Warriors
-115
-105
+1 (-115)
-1 (-105)
O 233.5 (-110)
U 233.5 (-110)

NBA Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder on June 16, 2025 at Paycom Center.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NBA odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
IND@OKC PASCAL SIAKAM OVER 2.5 PERSONAL FOULS 54.20% 4 WIN
IND@OKC IND +10 54.00% 3 WIN
IND@OKC BENNEDICT MATHURIN OVER 2.5 FREE THROW ATT 54.90% 4 WIN
NY@IND MYLES TURNER OVER 6 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 54.40% 4 LOSS
IND@NY IND +5 55.60% 5 LOSS
NY@IND JALEN BRUNSON UNDER 22 FIELD GOAL ATT 54.70% 4 WIN
OKC@MIN RUDY GOBERT OVER 1.5 FREE THROWS MADE 54.00% 4 WIN
OKC@MIN OKC -2.5 56.70% 6 LOSS
NY@IND KARL ANTHONY TOWNS OVER 32.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS 54.00% 4 WIN
OKC@MIN NAZ REID OVER 9.0 FIELD GOAL ATT 54.60% 4 LOSS
IND@NY MYLES TURNER OVER 5 MADE FIELD GOALS 53.60% 3 WIN
IND@NY NY -5.5 55.00% 4 LOSS
MIN@OKC ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN UNDER 7.5 REBOUNDS 53.00% 3 LOSS
MIN@OKC MIN +7.5 54.70% 4 LOSS
IND@NY TYRESE HALIBURTON ASSTS - UNDER 8.5 54.10% 4 LOSS
IND@NY IND +4.5 54.80% 4 WIN
MIN@OKC ALEX CARUSO UNDER 2.5 ASSTS 54.10% 4 WIN
DEN@OKC MICHAEL PORTER UNDER 7.5 REBS + AST 54.80% 4 WIN
BOS@NY NY -2.5 55.60% 5 WIN
GS@MIN DONTE DIVINCENZO OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 54.80% 4 LOSS
GS@MIN GS +10.5 54.70% 4 LOSS
DEN@OKC NIKOLA JOKIC UNDER 22.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 54.00% 4 WIN
MIN@GS JIMMY BUTLER UNDER 33.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS 54.50% 4 WIN
BOS@NY BOS -5.5 54.70% 4 WIN
OKC@DEN OKC -5 55.70% 5 LOSS
DEN@OKC SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER UNDER 12.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 54.20% 4 WIN
IND@CLE IND +8 54.00% 3 WIN
GS@MIN ANTHONY EDWARDS UNDER 40.5 PTS+REB+AST 54.00% 4 WIN
GS@MIN MIN -6.5 54.40% 4 LOSS
DEN@OKC NIKOLA JOKIC UNDER 36.5 POINTS + ASSTS 53.20% 3 LOSS
IND@CLE IND +8.5 55.70% 5 WIN
HOU@GS GS -5 53.70% 3 LOSS
HOU@GS BRANDIN PODZIEMSKI UNDER 5.5 REBOUNDS 54.10% 4 LOSS
DEN@LAC MICHAEL PORTER UNDER 7.5 REBS + AST 53.20% 3 WIN
DEN@LAC UNDER 212.5 54.00% 3 LOSS
MIN@LAL MIN +6 53.80% 3 WIN
MIN@LAL NAZ REID OVER 1.5 ASSTS 54.80% 4 WIN
LAC@DEN IVICA ZUBAC OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 53.50% 3 LOSS
DET@NY DET +5.5 53.90% 3 WIN
CLE@MIA EVAN MOBLEY UNDER 29.5 PTS+REB+AST 53.90% 3 WIN
BOS@ORL KRISTAPS PORZINGIS UNDER 8.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 53.10% 3 WIN
HOU@GS GS -3 53.70% 3 WIN
HOU@GS JALEN GREEN OVER 2.5 TURNOVERS 54.40% 4 LOSS
LAL@MIN LEBRON JAMES UNDER 31.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS 54.50% 4 LOSS
BOS@ORL BOS -3.5 54.70% 4 LOSS
DEN@LAC BOGDAN BOGDANOVIC OVER 2.5 THREE POINTERS ATTEMPTED 53.60% 3 LOSS
GS@HOU JALEN GREEN UNDER 3.5 FREE THROWS MADE 54.40% 4 LOSS
ORL@BOS ORL +10.5 54.70% 4 WIN
MEM@OKC ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN OVER 19.5 PTS + REB 53.80% 3 LOSS
MEM@OKC OKC -14.5 54.80% 4 WIN
LAC@DEN IVICA ZUBAC OVER 3.5 OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS 53.30% 3 LOSS