Pacers vs Thunder Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NBA Lines & Props (Jun 16)

Updated: 2025-06-14T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder will face off in Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals on Monday, June 16, at 8:30 PM EST at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. With the series tied 2-2, both teams aim to take a crucial lead in this best-of-seven showdown.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Jun 16, 2025

Start Time: 8:30 PM EST​

Venue: Paycom Center​

Thunder Record: (68-14)

Pacers Record: (50-32)

OPENING ODDS

IND Moneyline: +332

OKC Moneyline: -441

IND Spread: +9.5

OKC Spread: -9.5

Over/Under: 222.5

IND
Betting Trends

  • The Indiana Pacers have a 9-3 record against the spread (ATS) in the 2025 playoffs.

OKC
Betting Trends

  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 56-28-2 record ATS in the 2024-25 season.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • In Game 4, the Thunder were favored by 6 points but lost 116-107 to the Pacers, marking a significant ATS loss for Oklahoma City.

IND vs. OKC
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup:

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Indiana vs Oklahoma City Prediction & Odds:
Free NBA Betting Insights for 6/16/25

The 2025 NBA Finals between the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder have delivered a thrilling back-and-forth battle that reflects not only the hunger of two young teams but also a clash in stylistic identities, now culminating in a pivotal Game 5 with the series tied 2-2. After Oklahoma City evened the series with a commanding performance in Game 2, Indiana responded in Game 4 with a convincing 116-107 victory, reclaiming momentum and silencing doubts about their staying power in this heavyweight fight. The Pacers, led by the savvy and increasingly clutch Tyrese Haliburton, have leaned into their high-octane offense, smart ball movement, and the versatile scoring of Pascal Siakam, who continues to be a matchup nightmare for the Thunder’s defense. Indiana’s attack has flourished when they’ve been able to push the tempo, find mismatches on switches, and stretch the floor with shooters like Aaron Nesmith and Bennedict Mathurin stepping up in big moments. On the flip side, Oklahoma City has relied heavily on the brilliance of MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, whose ability to score from all three levels, draw contact, and facilitate late-clock offense has kept OKC in every game regardless of deficit. The emergence of rookie Chet Holmgren as a defensive anchor and reliable floor spacer, combined with the athleticism of Jalen Williams and defensive energy from the bench, gives OKC a roster that can match Indiana’s speed and creativity.

Yet, the Thunder have shown signs of fatigue and inconsistency, particularly in late-game possessions when Haliburton orchestrates surgical execution for Indiana’s offense. Defensively, Indiana has done an excellent job funneling penetration into the shot-blocking presence of Myles Turner, who continues to protect the paint while switching comfortably onto perimeter threats when needed. Coaching has also been a chess match—Rick Carlisle’s experience and tactical flexibility have shone through as he adjusts on the fly, while Mark Daigneault’s emphasis on physical defense and composure has kept the Thunder disciplined and focused under pressure. As Game 5 heads back to Oklahoma City, the Thunder will try to re-establish their dominance at Paycom Center, where the crowd’s energy often swings momentum, and they’ve been more efficient on both ends. However, Indiana has proven they can win on the road, showing maturity beyond their years, and their confidence seems to grow with each clutch performance. Game 5 often decides NBA Finals series, with historical trends showing the winner takes the title nearly 75% of the time, so the pressure is enormous. Expect a fierce battle where possessions slow down, every decision is magnified, and star power and execution define the outcome. Whether Haliburton continues to dazzle or Gilgeous-Alexander carries his team, this game will test every ounce of mental toughness, depth, and desire each team has, with the victor poised to seize control of the championship dream.

Indiana Pacers NBA Preview

The Indiana Pacers enter Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals brimming with confidence and resilience, having evened the series with a strong 116-107 win in Game 4 and showcasing a level of poise, offensive dynamism, and team chemistry that continues to catch critics and fans alike by surprise. This Pacers team, guided by the steady leadership and elite basketball IQ of Tyrese Haliburton, has grown increasingly comfortable under the intense spotlight of the Finals, demonstrating their ability to respond to adversity and execute with surgical precision in crunch time. Haliburton’s evolution into a true floor general has transformed Indiana’s offensive ceiling, as he effortlessly blends scoring with unselfish playmaking, and his decision-making late in games has given Indiana an edge against a Thunder squad that thrives on defensive disruption. Alongside him, Pascal Siakam has brought championship pedigree and veteran composure, providing the kind of shot creation, rebounding, and off-ball movement that has allowed Indiana to manipulate Oklahoma City’s switching schemes and generate high-quality looks. Role players like Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, and T.J. McConnell have consistently outperformed expectations, contributing with hustle, timely shooting, and defensive intensity, especially when rotating to challenge perimeter shooters or chase second-chance opportunities.

Defensively, the Pacers have honed in on limiting OKC’s transition game and keeping Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in front with strategic help from Myles Turner, whose rim protection and defensive rebounding have been pivotal in turning momentum and starting fast-breaks. Coach Rick Carlisle has masterfully adjusted Indiana’s spacing and off-ball motion, forcing mismatches and keeping the Thunder’s defense in constant motion, which has worn them down in second halves. The Pacers’ ball movement and willingness to trust each other in late-game possessions have made them one of the most difficult teams to guard, especially when their three-point shooting is clicking. As they hit the road for Game 5, Indiana is embracing the underdog narrative, with a chip on their shoulder and a belief that they can win not just a game, but a championship, by staying true to their identity—fluid offense, disruptive defense, and relentless effort. Paycom Center will be a hostile environment, but Indiana has already proven they can win in that building, and their focus now is to control tempo early, avoid careless turnovers, and capitalize on second-unit matchups when the Thunder rotate in their bench. With each passing game, the Pacers look more seasoned, and their cohesion has elevated them from surprise Finals contender to legitimate title threat. If Haliburton continues to dictate pace, Siakam delivers another efficient night, and their defense contains OKC’s perimeter threats, Indiana could take Game 5 on the road and move one win away from delivering the franchise’s first NBA title—cementing a historic postseason run built on teamwork, toughness, and belief.

The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder will face off in Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals on Monday, June 16, at 8:30 PM EST at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. With the series tied 2-2, both teams aim to take a crucial lead in this best-of-seven showdown. Indiana vs Oklahoma City AI Prediction: Free NBA Betting Insights for Jun 16. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder return to Paycom Center for Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals with the series tied 2-2 and a renewed urgency to defend their home floor after a disappointing 116-107 loss in Game 4 that exposed defensive lapses and inconsistent execution down the stretch. Led by superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has carried the scoring and playmaking load throughout this playoff run, the Thunder must now recalibrate and reestablish the defensive intensity and sharp ball movement that defined their dominant Game 2 performance. Gilgeous-Alexander’s ability to break down defenders off the dribble, draw fouls, and finish in traffic remains the cornerstone of Oklahoma City’s attack, but the team’s supporting cast must elevate their level of play to match Indiana’s depth and cohesion. Jalen Williams has been effective when slashing to the rim and hitting timely threes, but consistency and shot selection will be crucial in maintaining offensive flow. Rookie big man Chet Holmgren, who has dazzled with shot-blocking and perimeter shooting throughout the postseason, must assert himself more physically in the paint and continue altering shots without fouling, particularly when guarding Pascal Siakam or challenging Tyrese Haliburton’s floaters.

Coach Mark Daigneault has relied on a deep bench that includes Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins, but the second unit must produce more reliable scoring bursts and tighten up defensive rotations to avoid allowing Indiana’s bench to swing momentum. Oklahoma City’s success this season has hinged on balanced contributions, fast-break efficiency, and disciplined defense, yet in Game 4 they were plagued by unforced turnovers and sluggish rotations that allowed the Pacers to stretch the floor and dictate tempo. Defensively, the Thunder need to re-engage with their switching schemes and communication to contain Indiana’s off-ball movement and three-point threats, especially when Haliburton orchestrates in spread sets. Paycom Center remains one of the NBA’s most hostile venues for visiting teams, and OKC will look to harness that energy to fuel a fast start and reassert control of the series with a 3-2 lead heading into Game 6. Strategic adjustments may include more staggered minutes for Gilgeous-Alexander to ensure his presence during key stretches and a heavier emphasis on attacking the rim to draw fouls and get Myles Turner into early foul trouble. The Thunder’s ability to execute late-game sets, control the boards, and limit transition opportunities for the Pacers will determine whether they can protect home court and inch closer to capturing their first championship since the franchise’s relocation to Oklahoma City. With youth on their side but experience lacking in comparison to Indiana’s veterans, the Thunder’s maturity will be tested, and Game 5 will serve as the ultimate proving ground for a young squad trying to complete their remarkable rise from rebuild to NBA glory.

Indiana vs. Oklahoma City Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of datapoints on each line. In fact, anytime the Pacers and Thunder play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Paycom Center in Jun seemingly never follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup:

Indiana vs. Oklahoma City Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over mountains of data from every past game between the Pacers and Thunder and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.

Remi has been most keyed in on the trending weight human bettors often put on player performance factors between a Pacers team going up against a possibly rested Thunder team. Trends look to say the true game analytics might reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NBA AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Indiana vs Oklahoma City picks, computer picks Pacers vs Thunder, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
NBA 11/8 POR@MIA UNLOCK THIS PICK 7 VAULT v3 Locked VAULT v3
NBA 11/8 LAL@ATL UNLOCK THIS PICK 6 VAULT v2 Locked VAULT v2
NBA 11/8 IND@DEN UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL
NBA 11/8 CHI@CLE UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NBA schedule.

Pacers Betting Trends

The Indiana Pacers have a 9-3 record against the spread (ATS) in the 2025 playoffs.

Thunder Betting Trends

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 56-28-2 record ATS in the 2024-25 season.

Pacers vs. Thunder Matchup Trends

In Game 4, the Thunder were favored by 6 points but lost 116-107 to the Pacers, marking a significant ATS loss for Oklahoma City.

Indiana vs. Oklahoma City Game Info

Indiana vs Oklahoma City starts on June 16, 2025 at 8:30 PM EST.

Spread: Oklahoma City -9.5
Moneyline: Indiana +332, Oklahoma City -441
Over/Under: 222.5

Indiana: (50-32)  |  Oklahoma City: (68-14)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup:. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

In Game 4, the Thunder were favored by 6 points but lost 116-107 to the Pacers, marking a significant ATS loss for Oklahoma City.

IND trend: The Indiana Pacers have a 9-3 record against the spread (ATS) in the 2025 playoffs.

OKC trend: The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 56-28-2 record ATS in the 2024-25 season.

See our latest NBA picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Indiana vs. Oklahoma City Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of data points on each line. In fact, anytime the Indiana vs Oklahoma City trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.

Indiana vs Oklahoma City Opening Odds

IND Moneyline: +332
OKC Moneyline: -441
IND Spread: +9.5
OKC Spread: -9.5
Over/Under: 222.5

Indiana vs Oklahoma City Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Nov 9, 2025 3:30PM EST
Houston Rockets
Milwaukee Bucks
11/9/25 3:30PM
Rockets
Bucks
-172
+139
-4 (-110)
+4 (-110)
O 232.5 (-110)
U 232.5 (-110)
Nov 9, 2025 6:00PM EST
Brooklyn Nets
New York Knicks
11/9/25 6PM
Nets
Knicks
+703
-1250
+15.5 (-110)
-15.5 (-110)
O 229 (-110)
U 229 (-110)
Nov 9, 2025 6:10PM EST
Oklahoma City Thunder
Memphis Grizzlies
11/9/25 6:10PM
Thunder
Grizzlies
-526
+382
-10.5 (-110)
+10.5 (-110)
O 234 (-110)
U 234 (-110)
Nov 9, 2025 6:10PM EST
Boston Celtics
Orlando Magic
11/9/25 6:10PM
Celtics
Magic
+127
-156
+3 (-110)
-3 (-110)
O 226.5 (-110)
U 226.5 (-110)
Nov 9, 2025 7:30PM EST
Detroit Pistons
Philadelphia 76ers
11/9/25 7:30PM
Pistons
76ers
-161
+132
-3.5 (-110)
+3.5 (-110)
O 233 (-110)
U 233 (-110)
Nov 9, 2025 8:40PM EST
Indiana Pacers
Golden State Warriors
11/9/25 8:40PM
Pacers
Warriors
+487
-714
+12.5 (-110)
-12.5 (-110)
O 227 (-110)
U 227 (-110)
Nov 9, 2025 9:10PM EST
Minnesota Timberwolves
Sacramento Kings
11/9/25 9:10PM
Timberwolves
Kings
-222
+178
-5.5 (-110)
+5.5 (-110)
O 235 (-110)
U 235 (-110)
Dec 25, 2025 12:00PM EST
Cleveland Cavaliers
New York Knicks
12/25/25 12PM
Cavaliers
Knicks
+117
-143
+2.5 (-113)
-2.5 (-113)
O 229.5 (-113)
U 229.5 (-113)
Dec 25, 2025 5:00PM EST
Dallas Mavericks
Golden State Warriors
12/25/25 5PM
Mavericks
Warriors
+150
-195
+4.5 (-112)
-4.5 (-114)
O 227 (-115)
U 227 (-110)
Dec 25, 2025 10:30PM EST
Minnesota Timberwolves
Denver Nuggets
12/25/25 10:30PM
Timberwolves
Nuggets
+175
-220
+5 (-109)
-5 (-117)
O 229.5 (-112)
U 229.5 (-114)

NBA Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder on June 16, 2025 at Paycom Center.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NBA odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
DAL@MEM MEM -4 56.3% 6 WIN
TOR@ATL TOR +118 48.0% 3 WIN
CHA@MIA OVER 235.5 54.3% 3 LOSS
LAC@PHX PHX -135 58.9% 7 WIN
PHI@CLE PHI +10.5 53.3% 3 LOSS
MIA@DEN MIA +9.5 53.7% 3 LOSS
OKC@POR POR +4.5 52.9% 3 WIN
HOU@MEM MEM +8.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
UTA@DET UTA +10 56.8% 6 LOSS
NO@DAL TREY MURPHY III OVER 25.5 PTS & REB 55.5% 5 LOSS
ORL@ATL ORL -3.5 56.5% 6 LOSS
MIL@TOR MIL +3.5 56.5% 4 LOSS
PHX@GS STEPH CURRY UNDER 4.5 THREE PTRS MADE 53.3% 3 LOSS
OKC@LAC JAMES HARDEN OVER 12.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAL@POR POR -2.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
SA@PHX SA -5.5 56.6% 6 LOSS
ORL@WAS WAS +9 54.2% 4 LOSS
DAL@DET DAL +8 58.7% 8 LOSS
NY@CHI NY -4.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
BOS@PHI BOS +1.5 54.6% 4 WIN
TOR@CLE TOR +6 56.2% 6 WIN
DEN@POR JERAMI GRANT OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 56.6% 6 WIN
WAS@OKC WAS +15.5 54.9% 4 LOSS
NO@DEN DEN -12.5 53.6% 3 WIN
NO@DEN NIKOLA JOKIC OVER 26.5 POINTS 56.6% 6 LOSS
SAC@OKC SAC +10 54.7% 4 WIN
NY@MIL MIL +3 56.6% 6 WIN
LAC@GS GS +2.5 56.8% 6 WIN
LAC@GS BRANDIN PODZIEMSKI UNDER 1.5 THREE POINTERS MADE 55.5% 5 LOSS
CLE@DET DET +2.5 53.5% 3 LOSS
ORL@PHI ORL -5 54.7% 4 LOSS
OKC@DAL DAL +9 66.4% 6 WIN
BOS@NO NO +2 55.6% 5 LOSS
BKN@HOU BKN +16.5 57.0% 7 LOSS
BOS@NO TREY MURPHY III UNDER 25.5 PTS + REB 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@CLE MIL +6.5 56.1% 6 WIN
POR@LAC POR +8.5 56.5% 6 WIN
ATL@ORL ATL +5 54.6% 4 WIN
WAS@DAL WAS +10 55.3% 5 WIN
PHX@LAC IVICA ZUBAC OVER 6.5 MADE FIELD GOALS 55.5% 5 LOSS
OKC@IND IND +8 56.5% 6 WIN
CLE@NY CLE -116 55.0% 4 LOSS
LAC@UTA UTA +9.5 54.1% 4 WIN
WAS@MIL KYLE KUZMA OVER 1.5 ASSTS 55.5% 5 WIN
HOU@OKC HOU +6.5 54.8% 4 WIN
GS@LAL STEPHEN CURRY UNDER 2.5 TURNOVERS 54.4 4 WIN
IND@OKC SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER OVER 1.5 STEALS 54.90% 4 LOSS
IND@OKC JALEN WILLIAMS OVER 0.5 1Q REBOUNDS 55.70% 5 WIN
OKC@IND TJ MCCONNELL UNDER 7.5 TWO POINT ATT 55.70% 5 LOSS
IND@OKC CHET HOLMGREN OVER 1.5 SHOTS BLOCKED 53.40% 3 WIN
OKC@IND TJ MCCONNELL OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 53.00% 3 LOSS