Game 3 of the 2025 NBA Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers marks a critical swing point in a tightly contested series now tied 1–1, with the scene shifting to Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis for what promises to be a pivotal battle between two dynamic, stylistically distinct teams. The Thunder, who posted a league-best 80–18 overall record and remain undefeated against the spread in their last ten games, are led by MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, whose 29.8 points per game and elite decision-making have anchored one of the most balanced attacks in the postseason. Oklahoma City brings a rare combination of youth, discipline, and versatility, with Chet Holmgren providing length and rim protection, and Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey supplying secondary playmaking and scoring, allowing head coach Mark Daigneault to orchestrate a unit that thrives in both half-court execution and transition. Their defense has been just as impactful, holding opponents to a stingy 107.6 points per game and demonstrating elite switchability and contest rates on the perimeter, which will be key in countering Indiana’s three-point-heavy, fast-paced system. On the other side, the Pacers are enjoying a Cinderella run through the postseason, going 9–3 ATS in the playoffs behind the savvy play of Tyrese Haliburton, who leads all players in assists and has consistently dictated pace while initiating offense with flair and efficiency.

Indiana thrives in chaos, pushing tempo and spreading the floor with versatile wings like Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin, while Myles Turner anchors the defense and provides timely scoring through pick-and-pop actions and weakside help on the interior. Despite being underdogs again in Game 3 (+5.5), the Pacers have proven capable of keeping games close and executing in the clutch, especially at home where their pace-and-space identity has been most effective. Key to the matchup will be how well Haliburton handles the Thunder’s ball pressure and whether Indiana’s supporting cast can shoot efficiently enough to keep up with Oklahoma City’s methodical scoring machine. The total for the game is set at 228, indicating expectations for a fast tempo and high scoring, but with both teams showing strong ATS trends—OKC at 10–0 in their last ten and Indiana 5–3 ATS at home in the playoffs—bettors and fans alike should expect a tightly contested contest that could come down to late-game execution, free throw shooting, and defensive rotations. While the Thunder are favored for a reason and possess the more polished all-around unit, Indiana’s combination of home-court energy, offensive unpredictability, and postseason poise makes them a very live underdog. Expect a battle of adjustments and willpower, with Game 3 likely decided in the final five minutes and neither team willing to give an inch in what could prove to be the defining game of the series.