The Oklahoma City Thunder come into Game 1 of this conference showdown with the full momentum of a top seed that has grown more dangerous with every postseason challenge, and they’ll look to assert that edge at home, where they’ve thrived all year. Their 60–34 ATS record as home favorites is no fluke—this team is built to capitalize on the crowd, altitude of energy, and the disruptive length and activity that makes them one of the NBA’s premier defensive units. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to play like an MVP, averaging over 29 points per game while drawing double teams and punishing defenders with a lethal combination of change-of-pace drives, mid-range precision, and physical finishing. His composure unlocks everything for Oklahoma City, allowing others like Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren to flourish in their roles as versatile two-way contributors who can switch defensively, stretch the floor, and pressure opponents on both ends. Mark Daigneault’s coaching philosophy has emphasized ball movement, spacing, and relentless on-ball defense, which has translated into dominant stretches where OKC both smothers the opposing offense and goes on efficient scoring runs that change the pace of the game. Against Indiana, the Thunder will aim to control the tempo by keeping the Pacers out of transition, forcing them into halfcourt decisions where their defensive rotations can shine. Holmgren’s presence in the paint will be key to deterring Indiana’s cutters and protecting against dump-offs to Siakam and Turner, while Josh Giddey and Isaiah Joe are X-factors in hitting open shots and stretching Indiana’s help-side coverage.

The Thunder’s biggest area of focus will be rebounding—when they control the boards, they win games and cover spreads, boasting a 22–9 ATS record in such scenarios. Their switching and closeout discipline will be tested by Indiana’s rapid passing and relentless motion, but OKC has excelled at funneling shooters into unfavorable positions and recovering quickly to contest. Bench production from guys like Aaron Wiggins and Cason Wallace will also be pivotal, especially if the game is tight late and defensive stops become paramount. The key for Oklahoma City will be to dictate the first and third quarters, where they’ve consistently built leads this postseason, allowing Daigneault to manage minutes with confidence and keep their rotations intact. If Gilgeous-Alexander can force mismatches, draw early fouls, and maintain his usual scoring efficiency, the Thunder will have every opportunity to set the tone and make Indiana play catch-up. With the crowd behind them, a fresh and cohesive roster, and a game plan built to frustrate Haliburton’s rhythm, the Thunder are well-positioned to defend home court and cover the number, especially if they maintain their poise during Indiana’s inevitable runs and match their scoring efficiency with lockdown defense in the clutch.