Timberwolves vs. Thunder
Prediction, Odds & Props
May 28 | NBA AI Picks

Updated: 2025-05-26T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals on May 28, 2025, at 8:30 PM ET at Paycom Center. Leading the series 3-1, the Thunder aim to secure their first NBA Finals appearance since 2012, while the Timberwolves fight to extend their postseason run.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 28, 2025

Start Time: 8:30 PM EST​

Venue: Paycom Center​

Thunder Record: (68-14)

Timberwolves Record: (49-33)

OPENING ODDS

MIN Moneyline: +286

OKC Moneyline: -365

MIN Spread: +8.5

OKC Spread: -8.5

Over/Under: 220.5

MIN
Betting Trends

  • The Timberwolves hold a 46-45-1 record against the spread (ATS) for the 2025 season, including playoffs.

OKC
Betting Trends

  • The Thunder have an impressive 59-34-4 ATS record this season, showcasing their consistency in covering spreads.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Oklahoma City boasts a 33-14-2 ATS record as a home favorite (70.2%), indicating strong performance in such scenarios.

MIN vs. OKC
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: N. Reid over 14.5 PTS+REB.

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Minnesota vs Oklahoma City Prediction & Odds:
Free NBA Betting Insights for 5/28/25

The Western Conference Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves returns to Paycom Center for Game 5, where the Thunder hold a commanding 3-1 series lead and look to close out the Timberwolves to secure their first NBA Finals appearance since 2012. After two dominant home victories to start the series, the Thunder stumbled in Game 3 with a lopsided 143-101 defeat, only to respond with resilience in Game 4, eking out a high-scoring 128-126 win that put them firmly back in control. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander once again proved his superstar status with 40 points and clutch fourth-quarter shot-making, while Jalen Williams erupted for 34 points in an efficient offensive display that highlighted the depth and cohesion of Oklahoma City’s attack. The Thunder’s ability to execute late in tight games has been a signature of their season, and their defense, while not dominant in Game 4, made timely stops when needed, capitalizing on Minnesota’s 21 turnovers to gain critical possession advantages. On the other side, the Timberwolves are showing signs of offensive life with six players scoring in double figures in Game 4, and they’ve displayed stretches of elite-level basketball, but the combination of turnovers and defensive breakdowns continues to plague them at the worst possible moments.

Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns need to deliver consistently strong performances under pressure, and the Wolves will need to play near-perfect basketball on both ends to overcome the Thunder’s athleticism and disciplined half-court defense. Oklahoma City, now 33-14-2 ATS as a home favorite and one of the league’s most consistent teams all season, has thrived on their home floor and will be fueled by a roaring crowd eager to witness a series-clinching win. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s season hangs by a thread, and while they proved in Game 3 they can dominate when firing on all cylinders, they’ve yet to sustain that energy and execution away from home. With Oklahoma City holding the psychological edge and historical trend on their side, the Timberwolves must rally behind their leaders and find ways to disrupt the Thunder’s rhythm, particularly by taking better care of the basketball and contesting shots more aggressively. Bench production and transition defense could be the deciding factors if this game comes down to the wire again, and both coaching staffs will be seeking strategic advantages in rotations and matchup exploitation. Game 5 will test Minnesota’s resilience and Oklahoma City’s killer instinct, and though the Thunder appear poised to seal the series, a desperate and talented Timberwolves squad could still turn the momentum if they execute at their highest level. With the stakes this high and both teams loaded with young stars, fans should expect a physical, high-paced, and emotionally charged battle that could either crown a Western champion or shift the narrative back to Minneapolis for Game 6.

Minnesota Timberwolves NBA Preview

The Minnesota Timberwolves enter Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals facing elimination, down 3-1 to the Oklahoma City Thunder and searching for a way to recapture the dominance they displayed in Game 3, where they routed OKC 143-101. Despite that emphatic win, Minnesota couldn’t maintain consistency in Game 4, where they lost a heartbreaker 128-126, a result that encapsulated both the talent and the flaws of this Timberwolves squad. They shot a superb 51.2% from the field and nearly 44% from beyond the arc, had six players score in double figures, and yet lost due to a devastating 21 turnovers that handed too many extra opportunities to an already efficient Thunder offense. Anthony Edwards remains the emotional and tactical focal point of this team, capable of taking over games with his explosiveness and scoring variety, but he has also faced intense defensive pressure that has forced rushed decisions and uncharacteristic mistakes. Karl-Anthony Towns has had an up-and-down series, contributing strong scoring and rebounding in spurts but also struggling at times with foul trouble and ball security. The supporting cast has been more productive than anticipated—Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Jaden McDaniels have each had stretches of two-way brilliance—but Minnesota still needs more from veterans like Mike Conley, especially in managing pace and late-game execution.

The Timberwolves’ defensive identity, built around size, rim protection, and aggressive switches, has not always translated effectively against Oklahoma City’s quick, space-oriented offensive sets, and they’ve particularly struggled to contain Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in isolation and in pick-and-roll actions. Head coach Chris Finch faces a tall task: reinvigorating a team that has been outplayed in key moments while still believing in the blueprint that got them to this point—a blend of suffocating defense, inside-out scoring, and energetic bench play. If the Wolves are to extend the series and bring it back to Minnesota, they must reduce their turnovers dramatically, find more balance in their offensive approach to avoid overreliance on isolation plays, and reassert their defensive dominance by controlling the glass and limiting second-chance points. Facing a Thunder team that has thrived as a home favorite, the Timberwolves will also need to bring heightened focus in hostile territory, with better communication on defense and sharper ball movement to exploit Oklahoma City’s rotations. A fast start could be vital—not only to quiet the crowd but to rebuild internal confidence after the crushing Game 4 loss. The Timberwolves have the talent to win this game, but their season hinges on mental discipline, collective effort, and the ability to finish quarters strong—especially against a Thunder squad that rarely makes back-to-back mistakes. If Minnesota can lock in defensively, take care of the basketball, and get breakout performances from their stars, they’ll have a fighting chance to turn the series momentum and keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals on May 28, 2025, at 8:30 PM ET at Paycom Center. Leading the series 3-1, the Thunder aim to secure their first NBA Finals appearance since 2012, while the Timberwolves fight to extend their postseason run. Minnesota vs Oklahoma City AI Prediction: Free NBA Betting Insights for May 28. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder return to Paycom Center for Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals with a 3-1 series lead and a chance to close out the Minnesota Timberwolves in front of a roaring home crowd that has been a critical element of their postseason dominance. After taking care of business in Games 1 and 2 with wins by 26 and 15 points, respectively, the Thunder stumbled in Game 3 but rebounded impressively in Game 4 with a narrow 128-126 victory that showcased their maturity, resilience, and elite execution in clutch moments. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to assert himself as one of the league’s premier playoff performers, pouring in 40 points with smooth mid-range mastery, timely drives, and crucial free throws, while Jalen Williams added 34 points in a breakout game that emphasized Oklahoma City’s offensive versatility and ability to generate buckets from multiple sources. The Thunder’s hallmark this season has been their balance and discipline, finishing the regular season 68-14 and covering spreads at an elite 59-34-4 clip, including a 33-14-2 record ATS as a home favorite, numbers that underline their consistency and ability to deliver under pressure. Head coach Mark Daigneault’s game management and rotations have been crucial, especially in late-game scenarios, where OKC has repeatedly made smart adjustments and leaned on its athletic defense to get critical stops.

The Thunder’s ability to capitalize on Minnesota’s mistakes was glaring in Game 4, turning 21 Timberwolves turnovers into high-value transition points that offset occasional defensive lapses in the half-court. Chet Holmgren’s rim protection and spatial awareness have helped anchor a defense that ranks among the league’s best, while role players like Isaiah Joe, Lu Dort, and Josh Giddey have provided hustle plays, shooting, and secondary creation when needed. OKC’s fast-paced, ball-sharing offense keeps defenses guessing and forces difficult matchups, especially when they spread the floor and allow Gilgeous-Alexander to isolate or create out of pick-and-rolls. Now, back on their home floor with the energy and intensity of a potential closeout game, the Thunder know they must start fast, stay disciplined defensively, and avoid the kind of lapses that led to their Game 3 blowout loss. Limiting second-chance opportunities, defending without fouling, and maintaining composure against Minnesota’s desperate energy will be key components of their Game 5 strategy. If Oklahoma City plays their game—pushing tempo, moving the ball quickly, and applying perimeter pressure—they’re in prime position to advance to the NBA Finals for the first time in over a decade. With Gilgeous-Alexander leading the charge, Williams growing into a postseason star, and a roster fully bought into their system, the Thunder are not just trying to survive the moment—they’re ready to own it. One more polished, all-around performance may be all it takes to stamp their ticket to the biggest stage in basketball and continue what’s already been one of the most impressive seasons in franchise history.

Minnesota vs. Oklahoma City Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of data on each player. In fact, anytime the Timberwolves and Thunder play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Paycom Center in May seemingly never follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: N. Reid over 14.5 PTS+REB.

Minnesota vs. Oklahoma City Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over mountains of data from every simulation between the Timberwolves and Thunder and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.

Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most focused on the growing factor knucklehead sportsbettors regularly put on Oklahoma City’s strength factors between a Timberwolves team going up against a possibly deflated Thunder team. Trends look to say the true game analytics appear to reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NBA AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Minnesota vs Oklahoma City picks, computer picks Timberwolves vs Thunder, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NBA schedule.

Timberwolves Betting Trends

The Timberwolves hold a 46-45-1 record against the spread (ATS) for the 2025 season, including playoffs.

Thunder Betting Trends

The Thunder have an impressive 59-34-4 ATS record this season, showcasing their consistency in covering spreads.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder Matchup Trends

Oklahoma City boasts a 33-14-2 ATS record as a home favorite (70.2%), indicating strong performance in such scenarios.

Minnesota vs. Oklahoma City Game Info

Minnesota vs Oklahoma City starts on May 28, 2025 at 8:30 PM EST.

Spread: Oklahoma City -8.5
Moneyline: Minnesota +286, Oklahoma City -365
Over/Under: 220.5

Minnesota: (49-33)  |  Oklahoma City: (68-14)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: N. Reid over 14.5 PTS+REB.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

Oklahoma City boasts a 33-14-2 ATS record as a home favorite (70.2%), indicating strong performance in such scenarios.

MIN trend: The Timberwolves hold a 46-45-1 record against the spread (ATS) for the 2025 season, including playoffs.

OKC trend: The Thunder have an impressive 59-34-4 ATS record this season, showcasing their consistency in covering spreads.

See our latest NBA picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Minnesota vs. Oklahoma City Odds

Remi is pouring through tons of data on each player. In fact, anytime the Minnesota vs Oklahoma City trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps almost always follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Minnesota vs Oklahoma City Opening Odds

MIN Moneyline: +286
OKC Moneyline: -365
MIN Spread: +8.5
OKC Spread: -8.5
Over/Under: 220.5

Minnesota vs Oklahoma City Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 21, 2025 7:30PM EDT
Houston Rockets
Oklahoma City Thunder
10/21/25 7:30PM
Rockets
Thunder
+260
-320
+8 (-115)
-8 (-105)
O 225.5 (-110)
U 225.5 (-110)
Oct 21, 2025 10:00PM EDT
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers
10/21/25 10PM
Warriors
Lakers
+150
-175
+4 (-110)
-4 (-110)
O 225.5 (-110)
U 225.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Brooklyn Nets
Charlotte Hornets
10/22/25 7:10PM
Nets
Hornets
+145
-182
+4 (-115)
-4 (-110)
O 221 (-113)
U 221 (-113)
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Cleveland Cavaliers
New York Knicks
10/22/25 7:10PM
Cavaliers
Knicks
+145
-175
+3.5 (+100)
-3.5 (-120)
O 229.5 (+105)
U 229.5 (-125)
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Miami Heat
Orlando Magic
10/22/25 7:10PM
Heat
Magic
+240
-315
+7.5 (-113)
-7.5 (-113)
O 207 (-113)
U 207 (-112)
Oct 22, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Philadelphia 76ers
Boston Celtics
10/22/25 7:40PM
76ers
Celtics
+107
-132
+2 (-110)
-2 (-115)
O 221.5 (-115)
U 221.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Toronto Raptors
Atlanta Hawks
10/22/25 7:40PM
Raptors
Hawks
+190
-245
+6 (-113)
-6 (-112)
O 236.5 (-114)
U 236.5 (-112)
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Washington Wizards
Milwaukee Bucks
10/22/25 8:10PM
Wizards
Bucks
+285
-385
+8.5 (-115)
-8.5 (-109)
O 225 (-110)
U 225 (-115)
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Detroit Pistons
Chicago Bulls
10/22/25 8:10PM
Pistons
Bulls
-132
+106
-2 (-114)
+2 (-112)
O 236.5 (-114)
U 236.5 (-112)
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
New Orleans Pelicans
Memphis Grizzlies
10/22/25 8:10PM
Pelicans
Grizzlies
+150
-190
+4.5 (-112)
-4.5 (-113)
O 238.5 (-113)
U 238.5 (-113)
Oct 22, 2025 9:10PM EDT
Los Angeles Clippers
Utah Jazz
10/22/25 9:10PM
Clippers
Jazz
-345
+260
-8 (-113)
+8 (-112)
O 227.5 (-112)
U 227.5 (-114)
Oct 22, 2025 9:40PM EDT
San Antonio Spurs
Dallas Mavericks
10/22/25 9:40PM
Spurs
Mavericks
-110
-110
-1 (-105)
+1 (-115)
O 226.5 (-130)
U 226.5 (+105)
Oct 22, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Sacramento Kings
Phoenix Suns
10/22/25 10:10PM
Kings
Suns
-103
-121
+1.5 (-114)
-1.5 (-110)
O 229.5 (-112)
U 229.5 (-114)
Oct 22, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Minnesota Timberwolves
Portland Trail Blazers
10/22/25 10:10PM
Timberwolves
Trail Blazers
-143
+115
-2.5 (-114)
+2.5 (-112)
O 216 (-114)
U 216 (-112)
Oct 23, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Oklahoma City Thunder
Indiana Pacers
10/23/25 7:40PM
Thunder
Pacers
-325
+250
-7.5 (-110)
+7.5 (-110)
O 226.5 (-110)
U 226.5 (-110)
Oct 23, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Denver Nuggets
Golden State Warriors
10/23/25 10:10PM
Nuggets
Warriors
-110
-110
+1 (-110)
-1 (-110)
O 232.5 (-110)
U 232.5 (-110)

NBA Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder on May 28, 2025 at Paycom Center.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NBA odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
IND@OKC PASCAL SIAKAM OVER 2.5 PERSONAL FOULS 54.20% 4 WIN
IND@OKC IND +10 54.00% 3 WIN
IND@OKC BENNEDICT MATHURIN OVER 2.5 FREE THROW ATT 54.90% 4 WIN
NY@IND MYLES TURNER OVER 6 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 54.40% 4 LOSS
IND@NY IND +5 55.60% 5 LOSS
NY@IND JALEN BRUNSON UNDER 22 FIELD GOAL ATT 54.70% 4 WIN
OKC@MIN RUDY GOBERT OVER 1.5 FREE THROWS MADE 54.00% 4 WIN
OKC@MIN OKC -2.5 56.70% 6 LOSS
NY@IND KARL ANTHONY TOWNS OVER 32.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS 54.00% 4 WIN
OKC@MIN NAZ REID OVER 9.0 FIELD GOAL ATT 54.60% 4 LOSS
IND@NY MYLES TURNER OVER 5 MADE FIELD GOALS 53.60% 3 WIN
IND@NY NY -5.5 55.00% 4 LOSS
MIN@OKC ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN UNDER 7.5 REBOUNDS 53.00% 3 LOSS
MIN@OKC MIN +7.5 54.70% 4 LOSS
IND@NY TYRESE HALIBURTON ASSTS - UNDER 8.5 54.10% 4 LOSS
IND@NY IND +4.5 54.80% 4 WIN
MIN@OKC ALEX CARUSO UNDER 2.5 ASSTS 54.10% 4 WIN
DEN@OKC MICHAEL PORTER UNDER 7.5 REBS + AST 54.80% 4 WIN
BOS@NY NY -2.5 55.60% 5 WIN
GS@MIN DONTE DIVINCENZO OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 54.80% 4 LOSS
GS@MIN GS +10.5 54.70% 4 LOSS
DEN@OKC NIKOLA JOKIC UNDER 22.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 54.00% 4 WIN
MIN@GS JIMMY BUTLER UNDER 33.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS 54.50% 4 WIN
BOS@NY BOS -5.5 54.70% 4 WIN
OKC@DEN OKC -5 55.70% 5 LOSS
DEN@OKC SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER UNDER 12.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 54.20% 4 WIN
IND@CLE IND +8 54.00% 3 WIN
GS@MIN ANTHONY EDWARDS UNDER 40.5 PTS+REB+AST 54.00% 4 WIN
GS@MIN MIN -6.5 54.40% 4 LOSS
DEN@OKC NIKOLA JOKIC UNDER 36.5 POINTS + ASSTS 53.20% 3 LOSS
IND@CLE IND +8.5 55.70% 5 WIN
HOU@GS GS -5 53.70% 3 LOSS
HOU@GS BRANDIN PODZIEMSKI UNDER 5.5 REBOUNDS 54.10% 4 LOSS
DEN@LAC MICHAEL PORTER UNDER 7.5 REBS + AST 53.20% 3 WIN
DEN@LAC UNDER 212.5 54.00% 3 LOSS
MIN@LAL MIN +6 53.80% 3 WIN
MIN@LAL NAZ REID OVER 1.5 ASSTS 54.80% 4 WIN
LAC@DEN IVICA ZUBAC OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 53.50% 3 LOSS
DET@NY DET +5.5 53.90% 3 WIN
CLE@MIA EVAN MOBLEY UNDER 29.5 PTS+REB+AST 53.90% 3 WIN
BOS@ORL KRISTAPS PORZINGIS UNDER 8.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 53.10% 3 WIN
HOU@GS GS -3 53.70% 3 WIN
HOU@GS JALEN GREEN OVER 2.5 TURNOVERS 54.40% 4 LOSS
LAL@MIN LEBRON JAMES UNDER 31.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS 54.50% 4 LOSS
BOS@ORL BOS -3.5 54.70% 4 LOSS
DEN@LAC BOGDAN BOGDANOVIC OVER 2.5 THREE POINTERS ATTEMPTED 53.60% 3 LOSS
GS@HOU JALEN GREEN UNDER 3.5 FREE THROWS MADE 54.40% 4 LOSS
ORL@BOS ORL +10.5 54.70% 4 WIN
MEM@OKC ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN OVER 19.5 PTS + REB 53.80% 3 LOSS
MEM@OKC OKC -14.5 54.80% 4 WIN
LAC@DEN IVICA ZUBAC OVER 3.5 OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS 53.30% 3 LOSS