Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NBA Lines & Props (May 18)

Updated: 2025-05-16T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

On May 18, 2025, the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder will clash in a decisive Game 7 of the Western Conference Semifinals at Paycom Center. The winner will advance to face the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Conference Finals.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 18, 2025

Start Time: 3:30 PM EST​

Venue: Paycom Center​

Thunder Record: (68-14)

Nuggets Record: (50-32)

OPENING ODDS

DEN Moneyline: +282

OKC Moneyline: -358

DEN Spread: +8.5

OKC Spread: -8.5

Over/Under: 213

DEN
Betting Trends

  • The Denver Nuggets have a 3-3-1 record against the spread (ATS) in the 2025 playoffs.

OKC
Betting Trends

  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 2-2 record ATS in the 2025 playoffs.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • During the regular season, the Thunder achieved a 55-23-4 ATS record, the best in over 35 years.

DEN vs. OKC
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: S. Gilgeous-Alexander under 39.5 PTS+AST.

LIVE NBA ODDS

NBA ODDS COMPARISON

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Denver vs Oklahoma City Prediction & Odds:
Free NBA Betting Insights for 5/18/25

The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder will meet on May 18, 2025, at Paycom Center in what promises to be a thrilling and decisive Game 7 of their Western Conference Semifinal series, with a trip to the Conference Finals on the line and both teams bringing contrasting strengths and narratives into the winner-takes-all showdown. For the Thunder, the No. 1 seed in the West and owners of a 68-14 regular season record, this series has been their biggest test yet, as the youthful, dynamic squad led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has shown flashes of brilliance but also signs of playoff inexperience that the defending champion Nuggets have worked hard to exploit. Gilgeous-Alexander has been sensational all postseason, averaging nearly 29 points per game and carrying the offensive load with efficient shooting and clutch playmaking, supported by Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, who have both stepped into the spotlight with confidence and poise. Oklahoma City’s strength lies in its depth, defensive intensity, and versatility, with role players like Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Lu Dort stepping up on both ends of the floor, giving coach Mark Daigneault the flexibility to match Denver’s physicality and experience with constant pressure and energy. The Thunder’s defense has been especially impactful at home, where they’ve often overwhelmed opposing teams with their pace and crowd-fueled momentum, and Game 7 provides a perfect setting for them to harness that edge against a Nuggets team built around the cerebral and unshakable Nikola Jokić. Denver, despite a turbulent season filled with injuries and inconsistent supporting performances, has remained grounded in its championship identity, with Jokić continuing to be the focal point of everything they do, averaging 26.7 points, 13 rebounds, and 8 assists per game in the playoffs and maintaining his status as one of the most impactful two-way players in the game.

Jamal Murray, who has played through pain and pressure throughout the series, has still managed to contribute over 22 points per game, giving Denver a critical perimeter scoring threat and late-game closer to complement Jokić’s steady dominance. The Nuggets received an unexpected boost in Game 6 from rookie Julian Strawther, who erupted for 15 points off the bench and gave Denver much-needed spacing and shot creation when their offense had started to stall, and they’ll need similar contributions in Game 7 if Aaron Gordon, who is nursing a hamstring injury and remains questionable, is unavailable. Denver’s experience in closeout games and its ability to execute in the halfcourt will be tested by Oklahoma City’s fast rotations and aggressive trapping, and turnovers and rebounding will likely decide which team can control the tempo and capitalize in transition. With the Thunder undefeated in elimination games this postseason and the Nuggets fighting to preserve their title defense, Game 7 will be defined by which team imposes its identity from the opening tip and whether Jokić’s brilliance and Denver’s playoff poise can withstand the relentless energy and cohesion of a Thunder team hungry to reach the next level in their rise to contender status.

Denver Nuggets NBA Preview

The Denver Nuggets head into Game 7 of their Western Conference Semifinal series against the Oklahoma City Thunder on May 18, 2025, with their championship mettle under fire and their hopes of defending their title hanging by a thread, needing a complete performance on the road in one of the NBA’s loudest, most energized arenas against a team that has consistently tested their depth, conditioning, and ability to adjust under pressure. At the heart of Denver’s fight is Nikola Jokić, the three-time MVP who has once again delivered elite production in the postseason with averages of 26.7 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per game, doing everything from initiating offense to cleaning up on the glass and anchoring defensive possessions with high-IQ rotations and communication. Jokić’s brilliance has kept Denver alive despite uneven contributions from the rest of the roster, and Game 7 will demand yet another herculean performance from him, especially if Aaron Gordon—questionable with a hamstring injury—cannot suit up, removing one of Denver’s best perimeter defenders and rebounders. Jamal Murray has stepped into the scoring role admirably, averaging 22.5 points in the playoffs while shouldering much of the crunch-time creation, but Oklahoma City’s defense has tightened around him as the series has progressed, forcing him into contested looks and limiting his efficiency, which has made Denver’s offense vulnerable to scoring droughts and overreliant on Jokić’s ability to generate clean shots for others.

The bench has been a mixed bag for Denver, but the emergence of rookie Julian Strawther in Game 6—where he poured in 15 points off the bench—adds a potential X-factor, especially if Michael Porter Jr. struggles to find rhythm early or gets bottled up by OKC’s aggressive wing defenders. For the Nuggets to survive and advance, they must control the tempo of the game, limit turnovers, and attack Oklahoma City’s defense before it can get fully set, using off-ball movement and screening actions to spring shooters and loosen up the Thunder’s help defense. Defensively, Denver will need to find a way to contain Shai Gilgeous-Alexander without collapsing into unnecessary fouls, which means sharper communication in pick-and-roll coverage, better containment on dribble drives, and more decisive rotations from the weak side—something that’s been hit-or-miss during their losses in this series. The Nuggets’ ability to rebound will also be critical, especially if Gordon is out, as Oklahoma City’s size and length with Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and Hartenstein can wear down smaller lineups and generate second-chance points that tilt momentum quickly. Coach Michael Malone will need to trust his rotations but also be prepared to ride the hot hand and make bold adjustments if the offense stalls, as the Thunder have proven capable of going on massive runs in short spurts that have overwhelmed teams in their building. With the season on the line, Denver must lean on its experience, precision execution, and the unshakable composure of Jokić to quiet the crowd and withstand the pace and intensity of an Oklahoma City team built for chaos, and if they can manage the pressure, keep the game within striking distance, and deliver late-game shotmaking, they’ll give themselves a real shot at defending their Western Conference crown.

On May 18, 2025, the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder will clash in a decisive Game 7 of the Western Conference Semifinals at Paycom Center. The winner will advance to face the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Conference Finals. Denver vs Oklahoma City AI Prediction: Free NBA Betting Insights for May 18. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder return to Paycom Center on May 18, 2025, with the full weight of expectations on their shoulders as they prepare for a winner-take-all Game 7 against the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference Semifinals, looking to prove that their 68-win regular season was no fluke and that their youthful core is ready to take the next step toward championship contention in front of what will be an electric home crowd. Led by MVP finalist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has averaged 28.8 points per game this postseason with elite efficiency and composed late-game execution, the Thunder have combined poise and athleticism in a way that has allowed them to challenge and push the defending champions to the brink. SGA’s ability to control tempo, create off the dribble, and convert at all three levels of the floor has been complemented beautifully by Jalen Williams, who is averaging over 21 points per game with improved shot creation and defensive effort, and rookie Chet Holmgren, who has stepped into the playoff spotlight with mature decision-making, rim protection, and high IQ shot selection that has stretched Denver’s defense in ways few expected. What has made the Thunder so dangerous throughout the season and this series is their depth and collective commitment to defense, with Lu Dort hounding ball handlers and disrupting passing lanes, Isaiah Hartenstein providing toughness and rebounding in the paint, and Alex Caruso offering elite perimeter defense and secondary playmaking that has frustrated Denver’s guards.

Head coach Mark Daigneault has handled his playoff debut masterfully, keeping the rotation fluid, staggering minutes strategically, and making tactical adjustments to counter Denver’s offensive flow while maintaining the team’s identity built on pace, spacing, and positional versatility. The Thunder’s defensive coverages have held up well at home, where they’ve used energy from the crowd to feed into deflections, fast breaks, and third-quarter runs that have swung the momentum in several games, and with the Nuggets expected to come out aggressively, Oklahoma City must continue to swarm Nikola Jokić with timely doubles while closing out hard on Denver’s shooters to avoid backbreaking threes. On the offensive end, the key for OKC will be getting into their sets early, staying patient against Denver’s physicality, and getting consistent scoring from the second unit, especially from Josh Giddey and Caruso, who have shown they can create mismatches and drive the offense when SGA rests. Free throws, turnovers, and second-chance points will be crucial in a game that will likely come down to the final possessions, and the Thunder must avoid the lapses that hurt them in Games 2 and 5, where they gave up leads due to stagnant offense or late-game fouls. With their home crowd behind them and the chance to knock out the defending champs and advance to the Conference Finals for the first time in over a decade, the Thunder have the personnel, the game plan, and the emotional edge to finish the job—but they’ll need to execute with maturity beyond their years to make that happen in the biggest game of their season.

Denver vs. Oklahoma City Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of data on each line. In fact, anytime the Nuggets and Thunder play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Paycom Center in May rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: S. Gilgeous-Alexander under 39.5 PTS+AST.

Denver vs. Oklahoma City Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over mountains of data from every facet between the Nuggets and Thunder and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.

The Algorithm has been most fixated on the linear correlation of weight knucklehead sportsbettors often put on player performance factors between a Nuggets team going up against a possibly tired Thunder team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NBA AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Denver vs Oklahoma City picks, computer picks Nuggets vs Thunder, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
NBA 11/8 POR@MIA UNLOCK THIS PICK 7 VAULT v3 Locked VAULT v3
NBA 11/8 LAL@ATL UNLOCK THIS PICK 6 VAULT v2 Locked VAULT v2
NBA 11/8 IND@DEN UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL
NBA 11/8 CHI@CLE UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NBA schedule.

Nuggets Betting Trends

The Denver Nuggets have a 3-3-1 record against the spread (ATS) in the 2025 playoffs.

Thunder Betting Trends

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 2-2 record ATS in the 2025 playoffs.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Matchup Trends

During the regular season, the Thunder achieved a 55-23-4 ATS record, the best in over 35 years.

Denver vs. Oklahoma City Game Info

Denver vs Oklahoma City starts on May 18, 2025 at 3:30 PM EST.

Spread: Oklahoma City -8.5
Moneyline: Denver +282, Oklahoma City -358
Over/Under: 213

Denver: (50-32)  |  Oklahoma City: (68-14)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: S. Gilgeous-Alexander under 39.5 PTS+AST.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

During the regular season, the Thunder achieved a 55-23-4 ATS record, the best in over 35 years.

DEN trend: The Denver Nuggets have a 3-3-1 record against the spread (ATS) in the 2025 playoffs.

OKC trend: The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 2-2 record ATS in the 2025 playoffs.

See our latest NBA picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Denver vs. Oklahoma City Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of data on each team. In fact, anytime the Denver vs Oklahoma City trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps can often follow normal, predictable patterns.

Denver vs Oklahoma City Opening Odds

DEN Moneyline: +282
OKC Moneyline: -358
DEN Spread: +8.5
OKC Spread: -8.5
Over/Under: 213

Denver vs Oklahoma City Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Nov 9, 2025 3:30PM EST
Houston Rockets
Milwaukee Bucks
11/9/25 3:30PM
Rockets
Bucks
-160
+141
-4 (-106)
+4 (-106)
O 232 (-102)
U 232 (-113)
Nov 9, 2025 6:00PM EST
Brooklyn Nets
New York Knicks
11/9/25 6PM
Nets
Knicks
+757
-1126
+15.5 (-106)
-15.5 (-106)
O 229.5 (-102)
U 229.5 (-113)
Nov 9, 2025 6:10PM EST
Oklahoma City Thunder
Memphis Grizzlies
11/9/25 6:10PM
Thunder
Grizzlies
-525
+400
-11 (-108)
+11 (-112)
O 234 (-110)
U 234 (-110)
Nov 9, 2025 6:10PM EST
Boston Celtics
Orlando Magic
11/9/25 6:10PM
Celtics
Magic
+140
-160
+3.5 (-115)
-3.5 (-105)
O 226.5 (-110)
U 226.5 (-110)
Nov 9, 2025 7:30PM EST
Detroit Pistons
Philadelphia 76ers
11/9/25 7:30PM
Pistons
76ers
-154
+134
-3.5 (-110)
+3.5 (-110)
O 232.5 (-105)
U 232.5 (-115)
Nov 9, 2025 8:40PM EST
Indiana Pacers
Golden State Warriors
11/9/25 8:40PM
Pacers
Warriors
+533
-713
+13 (-106)
-13 (-106)
O 227.5 (-102)
U 227.5 (-113)
Nov 9, 2025 9:10PM EST
Minnesota Timberwolves
Sacramento Kings
11/9/25 9:10PM
Timberwolves
Kings
-214
+185
-5.5 (-106)
+5.5 (-106)
O 234.5 (-113)
U 234.5 (-102)
Dec 25, 2025 12:00PM EST
Cleveland Cavaliers
New York Knicks
12/25/25 12PM
Cavaliers
Knicks
+117
-143
+2.5 (-113)
-2.5 (-113)
O 229.5 (-113)
U 229.5 (-113)
Dec 25, 2025 5:00PM EST
Dallas Mavericks
Golden State Warriors
12/25/25 5PM
Mavericks
Warriors
+150
-195
+4.5 (-112)
-4.5 (-114)
O 227 (-115)
U 227 (-110)
Dec 25, 2025 10:30PM EST
Minnesota Timberwolves
Denver Nuggets
12/25/25 10:30PM
Timberwolves
Nuggets
+175
-220
+5 (-109)
-5 (-117)
O 229.5 (-112)
U 229.5 (-114)

NBA Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder on May 18, 2025 at Paycom Center.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NBA odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
DAL@MEM MEM -4 56.3% 6 WIN
TOR@ATL TOR +118 48.0% 3 WIN
CHA@MIA OVER 235.5 54.3% 3 LOSS
LAC@PHX PHX -135 58.9% 7 WIN
PHI@CLE PHI +10.5 53.3% 3 LOSS
MIA@DEN MIA +9.5 53.7% 3 LOSS
OKC@POR POR +4.5 52.9% 3 WIN
HOU@MEM MEM +8.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
UTA@DET UTA +10 56.8% 6 LOSS
NO@DAL TREY MURPHY III OVER 25.5 PTS & REB 55.5% 5 LOSS
ORL@ATL ORL -3.5 56.5% 6 LOSS
MIL@TOR MIL +3.5 56.5% 4 LOSS
PHX@GS STEPH CURRY UNDER 4.5 THREE PTRS MADE 53.3% 3 LOSS
OKC@LAC JAMES HARDEN OVER 12.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAL@POR POR -2.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
SA@PHX SA -5.5 56.6% 6 LOSS
ORL@WAS WAS +9 54.2% 4 LOSS
DAL@DET DAL +8 58.7% 8 LOSS
NY@CHI NY -4.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
BOS@PHI BOS +1.5 54.6% 4 WIN
TOR@CLE TOR +6 56.2% 6 WIN
DEN@POR JERAMI GRANT OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 56.6% 6 WIN
WAS@OKC WAS +15.5 54.9% 4 LOSS
NO@DEN DEN -12.5 53.6% 3 WIN
NO@DEN NIKOLA JOKIC OVER 26.5 POINTS 56.6% 6 LOSS
SAC@OKC SAC +10 54.7% 4 WIN
NY@MIL MIL +3 56.6% 6 WIN
LAC@GS GS +2.5 56.8% 6 WIN
LAC@GS BRANDIN PODZIEMSKI UNDER 1.5 THREE POINTERS MADE 55.5% 5 LOSS
CLE@DET DET +2.5 53.5% 3 LOSS
ORL@PHI ORL -5 54.7% 4 LOSS
OKC@DAL DAL +9 66.4% 6 WIN
BOS@NO NO +2 55.6% 5 LOSS
BKN@HOU BKN +16.5 57.0% 7 LOSS
BOS@NO TREY MURPHY III UNDER 25.5 PTS + REB 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@CLE MIL +6.5 56.1% 6 WIN
POR@LAC POR +8.5 56.5% 6 WIN
ATL@ORL ATL +5 54.6% 4 WIN
WAS@DAL WAS +10 55.3% 5 WIN
PHX@LAC IVICA ZUBAC OVER 6.5 MADE FIELD GOALS 55.5% 5 LOSS
OKC@IND IND +8 56.5% 6 WIN
CLE@NY CLE -116 55.0% 4 LOSS
LAC@UTA UTA +9.5 54.1% 4 WIN
WAS@MIL KYLE KUZMA OVER 1.5 ASSTS 55.5% 5 WIN
HOU@OKC HOU +6.5 54.8% 4 WIN
GS@LAL STEPHEN CURRY UNDER 2.5 TURNOVERS 54.4 4 WIN
IND@OKC SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER OVER 1.5 STEALS 54.90% 4 LOSS
IND@OKC JALEN WILLIAMS OVER 0.5 1Q REBOUNDS 55.70% 5 WIN
OKC@IND TJ MCCONNELL UNDER 7.5 TWO POINT ATT 55.70% 5 LOSS
IND@OKC CHET HOLMGREN OVER 1.5 SHOTS BLOCKED 53.40% 3 WIN
OKC@IND TJ MCCONNELL OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 53.00% 3 LOSS