Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NBA Lines & Props (May 18)

Updated: 2025-05-16T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

On May 18, 2025, the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder will clash in a decisive Game 7 of the Western Conference Semifinals at Paycom Center. The winner will advance to face the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Conference Finals.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 18, 2025

Start Time: 3:30 PM EST​

Venue: Paycom Center​

Thunder Record: (68-14)

Nuggets Record: (50-32)

OPENING ODDS

DEN Moneyline: +282

OKC Moneyline: -358

DEN Spread: +8.5

OKC Spread: -8.5

Over/Under: 213

DEN
Betting Trends

  • The Denver Nuggets have a 3-3-1 record against the spread (ATS) in the 2025 playoffs.

OKC
Betting Trends

  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 2-2 record ATS in the 2025 playoffs.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • During the regular season, the Thunder achieved a 55-23-4 ATS record, the best in over 35 years.

DEN vs. OKC
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: S. Gilgeous-Alexander under 39.5 PTS+AST.

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Denver vs Oklahoma City Prediction & Odds:
Free NBA Betting Insights for 5/18/25

The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder will meet on May 18, 2025, at Paycom Center in what promises to be a thrilling and decisive Game 7 of their Western Conference Semifinal series, with a trip to the Conference Finals on the line and both teams bringing contrasting strengths and narratives into the winner-takes-all showdown. For the Thunder, the No. 1 seed in the West and owners of a 68-14 regular season record, this series has been their biggest test yet, as the youthful, dynamic squad led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has shown flashes of brilliance but also signs of playoff inexperience that the defending champion Nuggets have worked hard to exploit. Gilgeous-Alexander has been sensational all postseason, averaging nearly 29 points per game and carrying the offensive load with efficient shooting and clutch playmaking, supported by Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, who have both stepped into the spotlight with confidence and poise. Oklahoma City’s strength lies in its depth, defensive intensity, and versatility, with role players like Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Lu Dort stepping up on both ends of the floor, giving coach Mark Daigneault the flexibility to match Denver’s physicality and experience with constant pressure and energy. The Thunder’s defense has been especially impactful at home, where they’ve often overwhelmed opposing teams with their pace and crowd-fueled momentum, and Game 7 provides a perfect setting for them to harness that edge against a Nuggets team built around the cerebral and unshakable Nikola Jokić. Denver, despite a turbulent season filled with injuries and inconsistent supporting performances, has remained grounded in its championship identity, with Jokić continuing to be the focal point of everything they do, averaging 26.7 points, 13 rebounds, and 8 assists per game in the playoffs and maintaining his status as one of the most impactful two-way players in the game.

Jamal Murray, who has played through pain and pressure throughout the series, has still managed to contribute over 22 points per game, giving Denver a critical perimeter scoring threat and late-game closer to complement Jokić’s steady dominance. The Nuggets received an unexpected boost in Game 6 from rookie Julian Strawther, who erupted for 15 points off the bench and gave Denver much-needed spacing and shot creation when their offense had started to stall, and they’ll need similar contributions in Game 7 if Aaron Gordon, who is nursing a hamstring injury and remains questionable, is unavailable. Denver’s experience in closeout games and its ability to execute in the halfcourt will be tested by Oklahoma City’s fast rotations and aggressive trapping, and turnovers and rebounding will likely decide which team can control the tempo and capitalize in transition. With the Thunder undefeated in elimination games this postseason and the Nuggets fighting to preserve their title defense, Game 7 will be defined by which team imposes its identity from the opening tip and whether Jokić’s brilliance and Denver’s playoff poise can withstand the relentless energy and cohesion of a Thunder team hungry to reach the next level in their rise to contender status.

Denver Nuggets NBA Preview

The Denver Nuggets head into Game 7 of their Western Conference Semifinal series against the Oklahoma City Thunder on May 18, 2025, with their championship mettle under fire and their hopes of defending their title hanging by a thread, needing a complete performance on the road in one of the NBA’s loudest, most energized arenas against a team that has consistently tested their depth, conditioning, and ability to adjust under pressure. At the heart of Denver’s fight is Nikola Jokić, the three-time MVP who has once again delivered elite production in the postseason with averages of 26.7 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per game, doing everything from initiating offense to cleaning up on the glass and anchoring defensive possessions with high-IQ rotations and communication. Jokić’s brilliance has kept Denver alive despite uneven contributions from the rest of the roster, and Game 7 will demand yet another herculean performance from him, especially if Aaron Gordon—questionable with a hamstring injury—cannot suit up, removing one of Denver’s best perimeter defenders and rebounders. Jamal Murray has stepped into the scoring role admirably, averaging 22.5 points in the playoffs while shouldering much of the crunch-time creation, but Oklahoma City’s defense has tightened around him as the series has progressed, forcing him into contested looks and limiting his efficiency, which has made Denver’s offense vulnerable to scoring droughts and overreliant on Jokić’s ability to generate clean shots for others.

The bench has been a mixed bag for Denver, but the emergence of rookie Julian Strawther in Game 6—where he poured in 15 points off the bench—adds a potential X-factor, especially if Michael Porter Jr. struggles to find rhythm early or gets bottled up by OKC’s aggressive wing defenders. For the Nuggets to survive and advance, they must control the tempo of the game, limit turnovers, and attack Oklahoma City’s defense before it can get fully set, using off-ball movement and screening actions to spring shooters and loosen up the Thunder’s help defense. Defensively, Denver will need to find a way to contain Shai Gilgeous-Alexander without collapsing into unnecessary fouls, which means sharper communication in pick-and-roll coverage, better containment on dribble drives, and more decisive rotations from the weak side—something that’s been hit-or-miss during their losses in this series. The Nuggets’ ability to rebound will also be critical, especially if Gordon is out, as Oklahoma City’s size and length with Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and Hartenstein can wear down smaller lineups and generate second-chance points that tilt momentum quickly. Coach Michael Malone will need to trust his rotations but also be prepared to ride the hot hand and make bold adjustments if the offense stalls, as the Thunder have proven capable of going on massive runs in short spurts that have overwhelmed teams in their building. With the season on the line, Denver must lean on its experience, precision execution, and the unshakable composure of Jokić to quiet the crowd and withstand the pace and intensity of an Oklahoma City team built for chaos, and if they can manage the pressure, keep the game within striking distance, and deliver late-game shotmaking, they’ll give themselves a real shot at defending their Western Conference crown.

On May 18, 2025, the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder will clash in a decisive Game 7 of the Western Conference Semifinals at Paycom Center. The winner will advance to face the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Conference Finals. Denver vs Oklahoma City AI Prediction: Free NBA Betting Insights for May 18. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder return to Paycom Center on May 18, 2025, with the full weight of expectations on their shoulders as they prepare for a winner-take-all Game 7 against the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference Semifinals, looking to prove that their 68-win regular season was no fluke and that their youthful core is ready to take the next step toward championship contention in front of what will be an electric home crowd. Led by MVP finalist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has averaged 28.8 points per game this postseason with elite efficiency and composed late-game execution, the Thunder have combined poise and athleticism in a way that has allowed them to challenge and push the defending champions to the brink. SGA’s ability to control tempo, create off the dribble, and convert at all three levels of the floor has been complemented beautifully by Jalen Williams, who is averaging over 21 points per game with improved shot creation and defensive effort, and rookie Chet Holmgren, who has stepped into the playoff spotlight with mature decision-making, rim protection, and high IQ shot selection that has stretched Denver’s defense in ways few expected. What has made the Thunder so dangerous throughout the season and this series is their depth and collective commitment to defense, with Lu Dort hounding ball handlers and disrupting passing lanes, Isaiah Hartenstein providing toughness and rebounding in the paint, and Alex Caruso offering elite perimeter defense and secondary playmaking that has frustrated Denver’s guards.

Head coach Mark Daigneault has handled his playoff debut masterfully, keeping the rotation fluid, staggering minutes strategically, and making tactical adjustments to counter Denver’s offensive flow while maintaining the team’s identity built on pace, spacing, and positional versatility. The Thunder’s defensive coverages have held up well at home, where they’ve used energy from the crowd to feed into deflections, fast breaks, and third-quarter runs that have swung the momentum in several games, and with the Nuggets expected to come out aggressively, Oklahoma City must continue to swarm Nikola Jokić with timely doubles while closing out hard on Denver’s shooters to avoid backbreaking threes. On the offensive end, the key for OKC will be getting into their sets early, staying patient against Denver’s physicality, and getting consistent scoring from the second unit, especially from Josh Giddey and Caruso, who have shown they can create mismatches and drive the offense when SGA rests. Free throws, turnovers, and second-chance points will be crucial in a game that will likely come down to the final possessions, and the Thunder must avoid the lapses that hurt them in Games 2 and 5, where they gave up leads due to stagnant offense or late-game fouls. With their home crowd behind them and the chance to knock out the defending champs and advance to the Conference Finals for the first time in over a decade, the Thunder have the personnel, the game plan, and the emotional edge to finish the job—but they’ll need to execute with maturity beyond their years to make that happen in the biggest game of their season.

Denver vs. Oklahoma City Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of stats on each team. In fact, anytime the Nuggets and Thunder play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Paycom Center in May can often follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: S. Gilgeous-Alexander under 39.5 PTS+AST.

Denver vs. Oklahoma City Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over tons of data from every past game between the Nuggets and Thunder and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.

Remi has been most watching on the linear correlation of emphasis knucklehead sportsbettors often put on Denver’s strength factors between a Nuggets team going up against a possibly strong Thunder team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NBA AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Denver vs Oklahoma City picks, computer picks Nuggets vs Thunder, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NBA schedule.

Nuggets Betting Trends

The Denver Nuggets have a 3-3-1 record against the spread (ATS) in the 2025 playoffs.

Thunder Betting Trends

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 2-2 record ATS in the 2025 playoffs.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Matchup Trends

During the regular season, the Thunder achieved a 55-23-4 ATS record, the best in over 35 years.

Denver vs. Oklahoma City Game Info

Denver vs Oklahoma City starts on May 18, 2025 at 3:30 PM EST.

Spread: Oklahoma City -8.5
Moneyline: Denver +282, Oklahoma City -358
Over/Under: 213

Denver: (50-32)  |  Oklahoma City: (68-14)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: S. Gilgeous-Alexander under 39.5 PTS+AST.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

During the regular season, the Thunder achieved a 55-23-4 ATS record, the best in over 35 years.

DEN trend: The Denver Nuggets have a 3-3-1 record against the spread (ATS) in the 2025 playoffs.

OKC trend: The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 2-2 record ATS in the 2025 playoffs.

See our latest NBA picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Denver vs. Oklahoma City Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of stats on each player. In fact, anytime the Denver vs Oklahoma City trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps can often follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Denver vs Oklahoma City Opening Odds

DEN Moneyline: +282
OKC Moneyline: -358
DEN Spread: +8.5
OKC Spread: -8.5
Over/Under: 213

Denver vs Oklahoma City Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 21, 2025 7:35PM EDT
Houston Rockets
Oklahoma City Thunder
10/21/25 7:35PM
Rockets
Thunder
+240
-315
+7.5 (-112)
-7.5 (-114)
O 227.5 (-113)
U 227.5 (-112)
Oct 21, 2025 10:00PM EDT
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers
10/21/25 10PM
Warriors
Lakers
-121
-104
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-114)
O 224 (-115)
U 224 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Brooklyn Nets
Charlotte Hornets
10/22/25 7:10PM
Nets
Hornets
+148
-186
+4.5 (-112)
-4.5 (-114)
O 225.5 (-112)
U 225.5 (-114)
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Cleveland Cavaliers
New York Knicks
10/22/25 7:10PM
Cavaliers
Knicks
+145
-182
+4 (-113)
-4 (-113)
O 229 (-114)
U 229 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Miami Heat
Orlando Magic
10/22/25 7:10PM
Heat
Magic
+280
-375
+8.5 (-110)
-8.5 (-115)
O 215 (-112)
U 215 (-114)
Oct 22, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Philadelphia 76ers
Boston Celtics
10/22/25 7:40PM
76ers
Celtics
+110
-136
+2.5 (-113)
-2.5 (-113)
O 225.5 (-113)
U 225.5 (-112)
Oct 22, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Toronto Raptors
Atlanta Hawks
10/22/25 7:40PM
Raptors
Hawks
+190
-245
+6 (-113)
-6 (-113)
O 235.5 (-114)
U 235.5 (-112)
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Washington Wizards
Milwaukee Bucks
10/22/25 8:10PM
Wizards
Bucks
+285
-385
+9 (-112)
-9 (-114)
O 229.5 (-112)
U 229.5 (-114)
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Detroit Pistons
Chicago Bulls
10/22/25 8:10PM
Pistons
Bulls
-132
+107
-2 (-114)
+2 (-112)
O 234.5 (-114)
U 234.5 (-112)
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
New Orleans Pelicans
Memphis Grizzlies
10/22/25 8:10PM
Pelicans
Grizzlies
+128
-159
+3.5 (-113)
-3.5 (-113)
O 236 (-114)
U 236 (-112)
Oct 22, 2025 9:10PM EDT
Los Angeles Clippers
Utah Jazz
10/22/25 9:10PM
Clippers
Jazz
-385
+285
-9 (-112)
+9 (-114)
O 227 (-112)
U 227 (-114)
Oct 22, 2025 9:40PM EDT
San Antonio Spurs
Dallas Mavericks
10/22/25 9:40PM
Spurs
Mavericks
+116
-143
+3 (-115)
-3 (-110)
O 225.5 (-113)
U 225.5 (-113)
Oct 22, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Sacramento Kings
Phoenix Suns
10/22/25 10:10PM
Kings
Suns
+130
-162
+3.5 (-113)
-3.5 (-112)
O 227.5 (-113)
U 227.5 (-113)
Oct 22, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Minnesota Timberwolves
Portland Trail Blazers
10/22/25 10:10PM
Timberwolves
Trail Blazers
-159
+128
-3.5 (-110)
+3.5 (-114)
O 219.5 (-113)
U 219.5 (-113)
Oct 23, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Oklahoma City Thunder
Indiana Pacers
10/23/25 7:40PM
Thunder
Pacers
-325
+260
-7.5 (-110)
+7.5 (-110)
O 228.5 (-110)
U 228.5 (-110)
Oct 23, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Denver Nuggets
Golden State Warriors
10/23/25 10:10PM
Nuggets
Warriors
-108
-112
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (+100)
O 233.5 (-110)
U 233.5 (-110)

NBA Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder on May 18, 2025 at Paycom Center.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NBA odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
IND@OKC PASCAL SIAKAM OVER 2.5 PERSONAL FOULS 54.20% 4 WIN
IND@OKC IND +10 54.00% 3 WIN
IND@OKC BENNEDICT MATHURIN OVER 2.5 FREE THROW ATT 54.90% 4 WIN
NY@IND MYLES TURNER OVER 6 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 54.40% 4 LOSS
IND@NY IND +5 55.60% 5 LOSS
NY@IND JALEN BRUNSON UNDER 22 FIELD GOAL ATT 54.70% 4 WIN
OKC@MIN RUDY GOBERT OVER 1.5 FREE THROWS MADE 54.00% 4 WIN
OKC@MIN OKC -2.5 56.70% 6 LOSS
NY@IND KARL ANTHONY TOWNS OVER 32.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS 54.00% 4 WIN
OKC@MIN NAZ REID OVER 9.0 FIELD GOAL ATT 54.60% 4 LOSS
IND@NY MYLES TURNER OVER 5 MADE FIELD GOALS 53.60% 3 WIN
IND@NY NY -5.5 55.00% 4 LOSS
MIN@OKC ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN UNDER 7.5 REBOUNDS 53.00% 3 LOSS
MIN@OKC MIN +7.5 54.70% 4 LOSS
IND@NY TYRESE HALIBURTON ASSTS - UNDER 8.5 54.10% 4 LOSS
IND@NY IND +4.5 54.80% 4 WIN
MIN@OKC ALEX CARUSO UNDER 2.5 ASSTS 54.10% 4 WIN
DEN@OKC MICHAEL PORTER UNDER 7.5 REBS + AST 54.80% 4 WIN
BOS@NY NY -2.5 55.60% 5 WIN
GS@MIN DONTE DIVINCENZO OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 54.80% 4 LOSS
GS@MIN GS +10.5 54.70% 4 LOSS
DEN@OKC NIKOLA JOKIC UNDER 22.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 54.00% 4 WIN
MIN@GS JIMMY BUTLER UNDER 33.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS 54.50% 4 WIN
BOS@NY BOS -5.5 54.70% 4 WIN
OKC@DEN OKC -5 55.70% 5 LOSS
DEN@OKC SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER UNDER 12.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 54.20% 4 WIN
IND@CLE IND +8 54.00% 3 WIN
GS@MIN ANTHONY EDWARDS UNDER 40.5 PTS+REB+AST 54.00% 4 WIN
GS@MIN MIN -6.5 54.40% 4 LOSS
DEN@OKC NIKOLA JOKIC UNDER 36.5 POINTS + ASSTS 53.20% 3 LOSS
IND@CLE IND +8.5 55.70% 5 WIN
HOU@GS GS -5 53.70% 3 LOSS
HOU@GS BRANDIN PODZIEMSKI UNDER 5.5 REBOUNDS 54.10% 4 LOSS
DEN@LAC MICHAEL PORTER UNDER 7.5 REBS + AST 53.20% 3 WIN
DEN@LAC UNDER 212.5 54.00% 3 LOSS
MIN@LAL MIN +6 53.80% 3 WIN
MIN@LAL NAZ REID OVER 1.5 ASSTS 54.80% 4 WIN
LAC@DEN IVICA ZUBAC OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 53.50% 3 LOSS
DET@NY DET +5.5 53.90% 3 WIN
CLE@MIA EVAN MOBLEY UNDER 29.5 PTS+REB+AST 53.90% 3 WIN
BOS@ORL KRISTAPS PORZINGIS UNDER 8.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 53.10% 3 WIN
HOU@GS GS -3 53.70% 3 WIN
HOU@GS JALEN GREEN OVER 2.5 TURNOVERS 54.40% 4 LOSS
LAL@MIN LEBRON JAMES UNDER 31.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS 54.50% 4 LOSS
BOS@ORL BOS -3.5 54.70% 4 LOSS
DEN@LAC BOGDAN BOGDANOVIC OVER 2.5 THREE POINTERS ATTEMPTED 53.60% 3 LOSS
GS@HOU JALEN GREEN UNDER 3.5 FREE THROWS MADE 54.40% 4 LOSS
ORL@BOS ORL +10.5 54.70% 4 WIN
MEM@OKC ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN OVER 19.5 PTS + REB 53.80% 3 LOSS
MEM@OKC OKC -14.5 54.80% 4 WIN
LAC@DEN IVICA ZUBAC OVER 3.5 OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS 53.30% 3 LOSS