Thunder vs. Nuggets
Prediction, Odds & Props
May 11 | NBA AI Picks
Updated: 2025-05-09T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets face off in Game 4 of their Western Conference Semifinals series on Sunday, May 11, 2025, at Ball Arena in Denver. The Nuggets currently lead the series 2-1 after a thrilling overtime victory in Game 3, putting pressure on the Thunder to respond and avoid a daunting 3-1 deficit.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: May 11, 2025
Start Time: 3:30 PM EST
Venue: Ball Arena
Nuggets Record: (50-32)
Thunder Record: (68-14)
OPENING ODDS
OKC Moneyline: -259
DEN Moneyline: +210
OKC Spread: -6.5
DEN Spread: +6.5
Over/Under: 227.5
OKC
Betting Trends
- The Thunder have been strong against the spread (ATS) this season, posting a 56-28-2 record, indicating consistent performance relative to betting expectations.
DEN
Betting Trends
- The Nuggets have struggled ATS this season, with a 38-45 record, reflecting challenges in covering spreads despite their overall success.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Despite the Thunder’s superior ATS record, the Nuggets have managed to cover the spread in recent matchups against Oklahoma City, including their Game 3 victory, suggesting a potential trend favoring Denver in this series.
OKC vs. DEN
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Wiggins over 5.5 Points.
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Oklahoma City vs Denver Prediction & Odds:
Free NBA Betting Insights for 5/11/25
The coaching battle between Mark Daigneault and Michael Malone is equally critical—Daigneault’s creative rotations and defensive schemes helped the Thunder dominate the regular season, but Malone’s playoff-tested strategies and in-game adjustments have stifled Oklahoma City’s pace-and-space offense. Denver has controlled tempo more effectively, forcing the Thunder into half-court sets where their efficiency dips compared to transition play. Both teams have had their moments, but the margins are razor thin, and Game 4 represents a tipping point. If Denver wins, they’ll carry a commanding 3-1 series lead with momentum and confidence, especially heading back to Oklahoma City knowing they’ve already taken one on the road. Conversely, a Thunder win ties the series and restores their home-court advantage, likely turning the matchup into a grueling seven-game affair. Key variables to watch include whether the Thunder can improve on the glass, whether Gilgeous-Alexander can get more scoring help, and how Jokic responds to the aggressive coverage as the series deepens. With both teams displaying championship-caliber traits, Game 4 may be the most pivotal yet—deciding not just the series trajectory but which team truly dictates the identity of the battle between a rising power and an established giant.
Final from Denver pic.twitter.com/jYXZYgh6D4
— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) May 10, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder enter Game 4 of their Western Conference Semifinals series against the Denver Nuggets facing both opportunity and pressure, trailing 2-1 after a painful overtime loss in Game 3 that exposed some growing pains in an otherwise brilliant season. After leading the NBA with a 68-14 regular-season record and sweeping through the first round, the Thunder’s youthful roster is now being tested by the playoff-hardened Nuggets in ways they hadn’t encountered all year. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to be the team’s engine, averaging over 30 points in the series while drawing constant double-teams and defensive adjustments from Denver. His ability to manipulate defenders, score at all three levels, and create offense late in the shot clock has kept Oklahoma City in every game, but the lack of consistent secondary scoring is beginning to strain their offensive balance. Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey have had moments of brilliance, particularly in transition, but the half-court offense bogs down when Denver packs the paint and rotates quickly to shooters. Chet Holmgren, meanwhile, has found the going tougher in this series, as Denver’s physical frontcourt has neutralized his shot-blocking and tested his frame in rebounding battles. The Thunder have done an admirable job slowing Nikola Jokic’s playmaking by collapsing the paint and rotating early, yet this strategy has allowed Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. more freedom to exploit defensive breakdowns.
Oklahoma City’s defensive rotations and switch-heavy scheme must improve to contain those complementary scorers while continuing to limit Jokic’s ability to orchestrate. Coach Mark Daigneault has proven willing to make quick tactical adjustments all season, and his trust in his deep bench has been a strength, but Game 4 will require a more deliberate approach—perhaps tightening the rotation and leaning on veterans to help stabilize the group in clutch minutes. The Thunder have been at their best when flying up and down the court, spacing the floor, and using pace to create open looks; however, Denver has succeeded in forcing them into slower, grinding possessions that favor experience and physicality over energy and athleticism. If Oklahoma City wants to regain control of the series, it will need to reclaim its tempo and start the game with urgency, while executing down the stretch with the poise of a contender rather than a team learning through trial by fire. Game 4 is a must-win in all but name—falling behind 3-1 to a team with the Nuggets’ pedigree would be a steep mountain to climb, even for the most talented team in the league. The Thunder must now blend their youthful swagger with disciplined execution, and if their supporting cast can rise to the moment and relieve some of the burden from Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City has every chance to even the series and reclaim the narrative.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Denver Nuggets NBA Preview
The Denver Nuggets return to Ball Arena for Game 4 of their Western Conference Semifinal matchup against the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder with the series momentum firmly in their favor after a dramatic overtime win in Game 3. The victory gave the Nuggets a 2-1 series lead and a psychological edge, reestablishing their identity as a resilient, playoff-tested squad capable of withstanding even the most explosive offensive teams. While two-time MVP Nikola Jokic remains the heartbeat of Denver’s offense, the Thunder have done a commendable job neutralizing his playmaking, forcing him into tough shots and limiting his assist totals. However, that has only created space for other contributors like Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr., who have stepped up consistently, hitting timely shots and taking advantage of the mismatches created when Oklahoma City collapses on Jokic. Gordon’s physicality and rebounding have been especially vital, while Porter Jr.’s perimeter scoring and defensive activity have provided Denver with a crucial boost in transition and late possessions. Jamal Murray, while still recovering his full rhythm, has found ways to impact the game as a secondary playmaker and mid-range threat, forcing the Thunder to constantly shift their defensive schemes. On the defensive end, Denver has committed to crowding the paint, disrupting Oklahoma City’s drives, and closing out hard on shooters. The result has been a noticeable dip in the Thunder’s shooting efficiency, particularly in half-court sets where Denver’s communication and veteran awareness allow them to rotate quickly and close gaps.
Coach Michael Malone has executed a savvy game plan thus far, mixing in zone looks, exploiting Oklahoma City’s inexperience in crunch time, and maximizing the second unit’s energy to sustain momentum. The Nuggets’ bench—featuring key minutes from Reggie Jackson, Christian Braun, and Peyton Watson—has not only held leads but extended them, shifting the burden off the starters and allowing for more strategic rotations. Another major advantage has been Denver’s dominance on the offensive glass, where they’ve consistently created second-chance opportunities that demoralize opposing defenses and wear down Oklahoma City’s interior. With Game 4 set in the altitude and noise of Ball Arena, Denver now has the opportunity to put a stranglehold on the series by securing a 3-1 lead before heading back to Oklahoma City. That experience, combined with their home-court poise and high-IQ basketball, makes them a formidable opponent. To close the door on the Thunder, the Nuggets must continue punishing them inside, staying disciplined on the defensive end, and maintaining balanced scoring across their rotation. If Jokic’s supporting cast continues to deliver and the team controls the pace the way they did in Game 3, Denver will not only strengthen its hold on this series but also reassert itself as the team to beat in the West. Game 4 could be the defining chapter, and the Nuggets are poised to seize it with their trademark blend of patience, precision, and power.
Lets turn it up a notch tomorrow❗️ pic.twitter.com/dnhMZRfzgP
— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) May 11, 2025
Oklahoma City vs. Denver Prop Picks (AI)
Oklahoma City vs. Denver Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over exorbitant amounts of data from every angle between the Thunder and Nuggets and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.
Interestingly enough, the data has been most watching on the growing weight knucklehead sportsbettors often put on Oklahoma City’s strength factors between a Thunder team going up against a possibly strong Nuggets team. We’ve found the true game analytics appear to reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NBA AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Oklahoma City vs Denver picks, computer picks Thunder vs Nuggets, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NBA schedule.
Thunder Betting Trends
The Thunder have been strong against the spread (ATS) this season, posting a 56-28-2 record, indicating consistent performance relative to betting expectations.
Nuggets Betting Trends
The Nuggets have struggled ATS this season, with a 38-45 record, reflecting challenges in covering spreads despite their overall success.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Matchup Trends
Despite the Thunder’s superior ATS record, the Nuggets have managed to cover the spread in recent matchups against Oklahoma City, including their Game 3 victory, suggesting a potential trend favoring Denver in this series.
Oklahoma City vs. Denver Game Info
What time does Oklahoma City vs Denver start on May 11, 2025?
Oklahoma City vs Denver starts on May 11, 2025 at 3:30 PM EST.
Where is Oklahoma City vs Denver being played?
Venue: Ball Arena.
What are the opening odds for Oklahoma City vs Denver?
Spread: Denver +6.5
Moneyline: Oklahoma City -259, Denver +210
Over/Under: 227.5
What are the records for Oklahoma City vs Denver?
Oklahoma City: (68-14) | Denver: (50-32)
What is the AI best bet for Oklahoma City vs Denver?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Wiggins over 5.5 Points.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are Oklahoma City vs Denver trending bets?
Despite the Thunder’s superior ATS record, the Nuggets have managed to cover the spread in recent matchups against Oklahoma City, including their Game 3 victory, suggesting a potential trend favoring Denver in this series.
What are Oklahoma City trending bets?
OKC trend: The Thunder have been strong against the spread (ATS) this season, posting a 56-28-2 record, indicating consistent performance relative to betting expectations.
What are Denver trending bets?
DEN trend: The Nuggets have struggled ATS this season, with a 38-45 record, reflecting challenges in covering spreads despite their overall success.
Where can I find AI Picks for Oklahoma City vs Denver?
See our latest NBA picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Oklahoma City vs. Denver Odds
Remi is pouring through loads of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Oklahoma City vs Denver trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.
Oklahoma City vs Denver Opening Odds
OKC Moneyline:
-259 DEN Moneyline: +210
OKC Spread: -6.5
DEN Spread: +6.5
Over/Under: 227.5
Oklahoma City vs Denver Live Odds
Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 21, 2025 7:30PM EDT
Houston Rockets
Oklahoma City Thunder
10/21/25 7:30PM
Rockets
Thunder
|
–
–
|
+230
-305
|
+7.5 (-114)
-7.5 (-112)
|
O 225.5 (-114)
U 225.5 (-112)
|
|
Oct 21, 2025 10:00PM EDT
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers
10/21/25 10PM
Warriors
Lakers
|
–
–
|
+135
-167
|
+3.5 (-112)
-3.5 (-114)
|
O 224.5 (-112)
U 224.5 (-114)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Brooklyn Nets
Charlotte Hornets
10/22/25 7:10PM
Nets
Hornets
|
–
–
|
+145
-182
|
+4 (-115)
-4 (-110)
|
O 221 (-113)
U 221 (-113)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Cleveland Cavaliers
New York Knicks
10/22/25 7:10PM
Cavaliers
Knicks
|
–
–
|
+145
-182
|
+4 (-114)
-4 (-112)
|
O 227.5 (-112)
U 227.5 (-114)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Miami Heat
Orlando Magic
10/22/25 7:10PM
Heat
Magic
|
–
–
|
+240
-315
|
+7.5 (-113)
-7.5 (-113)
|
O 207 (-113)
U 207 (-112)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Philadelphia 76ers
Boston Celtics
10/22/25 7:40PM
76ers
Celtics
|
–
–
|
+107
-132
|
+2 (-110)
-2 (-115)
|
O 221.5 (-115)
U 221.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Toronto Raptors
Atlanta Hawks
10/22/25 7:40PM
Raptors
Hawks
|
–
–
|
+190
-245
|
+6 (-113)
-6 (-112)
|
O 236.5 (-114)
U 236.5 (-112)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Washington Wizards
Milwaukee Bucks
10/22/25 8:10PM
Wizards
Bucks
|
–
–
|
+285
-385
|
+8.5 (-115)
-8.5 (-109)
|
O 225 (-110)
U 225 (-115)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Detroit Pistons
Chicago Bulls
10/22/25 8:10PM
Pistons
Bulls
|
–
–
|
-132
+106
|
-2 (-114)
+2 (-112)
|
O 236.5 (-114)
U 236.5 (-112)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
New Orleans Pelicans
Memphis Grizzlies
10/22/25 8:10PM
Pelicans
Grizzlies
|
–
–
|
+150
-190
|
+4.5 (-112)
-4.5 (-113)
|
O 238.5 (-113)
U 238.5 (-113)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 9:10PM EDT
Los Angeles Clippers
Utah Jazz
10/22/25 9:10PM
Clippers
Jazz
|
–
–
|
-345
+260
|
-8 (-113)
+8 (-112)
|
O 227.5 (-112)
U 227.5 (-114)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 9:40PM EDT
San Antonio Spurs
Dallas Mavericks
10/22/25 9:40PM
Spurs
Mavericks
|
–
–
|
-113
-110
|
-1 (-109)
+1 (-117)
|
O 226.5 (-112)
U 226.5 (-113)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Sacramento Kings
Phoenix Suns
10/22/25 10:10PM
Kings
Suns
|
–
–
|
-103
-121
|
+1.5 (-114)
-1.5 (-110)
|
O 229.5 (-112)
U 229.5 (-114)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Minnesota Timberwolves
Portland Trail Blazers
10/22/25 10:10PM
Timberwolves
Trail Blazers
|
–
–
|
-143
+115
|
-2.5 (-114)
+2.5 (-112)
|
O 216 (-114)
U 216 (-112)
|
|
Oct 23, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Oklahoma City Thunder
Indiana Pacers
10/23/25 7:40PM
Thunder
Pacers
|
–
–
|
-323
+240
|
-7.5 (-110)
+7.5 (-110)
|
O 226.5 (-110)
U 226.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 23, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Denver Nuggets
Golden State Warriors
10/23/25 10:10PM
Nuggets
Warriors
|
–
–
|
-109
-116
|
+1 (-110)
-1 (-110)
|
O 232.5 (-110)
U 232.5 (-110)
|
NBA Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets on May 11, 2025 at Ball Arena.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NBA odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
IND@OKC | PASCAL SIAKAM OVER 2.5 PERSONAL FOULS | 54.20% | 4 | WIN |
IND@OKC | IND +10 | 54.00% | 3 | WIN |
IND@OKC | BENNEDICT MATHURIN OVER 2.5 FREE THROW ATT | 54.90% | 4 | WIN |
NY@IND | MYLES TURNER OVER 6 REBOUNDS + ASSTS | 54.40% | 4 | LOSS |
IND@NY | IND +5 | 55.60% | 5 | LOSS |
NY@IND | JALEN BRUNSON UNDER 22 FIELD GOAL ATT | 54.70% | 4 | WIN |
OKC@MIN | RUDY GOBERT OVER 1.5 FREE THROWS MADE | 54.00% | 4 | WIN |
OKC@MIN | OKC -2.5 | 56.70% | 6 | LOSS |
NY@IND | KARL ANTHONY TOWNS OVER 32.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS | 54.00% | 4 | WIN |
OKC@MIN | NAZ REID OVER 9.0 FIELD GOAL ATT | 54.60% | 4 | LOSS |
IND@NY | MYLES TURNER OVER 5 MADE FIELD GOALS | 53.60% | 3 | WIN |
IND@NY | NY -5.5 | 55.00% | 4 | LOSS |
MIN@OKC | ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN UNDER 7.5 REBOUNDS | 53.00% | 3 | LOSS |
MIN@OKC | MIN +7.5 | 54.70% | 4 | LOSS |
IND@NY | TYRESE HALIBURTON ASSTS - UNDER 8.5 | 54.10% | 4 | LOSS |
IND@NY | IND +4.5 | 54.80% | 4 | WIN |
MIN@OKC | ALEX CARUSO UNDER 2.5 ASSTS | 54.10% | 4 | WIN |
DEN@OKC | MICHAEL PORTER UNDER 7.5 REBS + AST | 54.80% | 4 | WIN |
BOS@NY | NY -2.5 | 55.60% | 5 | WIN |
GS@MIN | DONTE DIVINCENZO OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS | 54.80% | 4 | LOSS |
GS@MIN | GS +10.5 | 54.70% | 4 | LOSS |
DEN@OKC | NIKOLA JOKIC UNDER 22.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS | 54.00% | 4 | WIN |
MIN@GS | JIMMY BUTLER UNDER 33.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS | 54.50% | 4 | WIN |
BOS@NY | BOS -5.5 | 54.70% | 4 | WIN |
OKC@DEN | OKC -5 | 55.70% | 5 | LOSS |
DEN@OKC | SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER UNDER 12.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS | 54.20% | 4 | WIN |
IND@CLE | IND +8 | 54.00% | 3 | WIN |
GS@MIN | ANTHONY EDWARDS UNDER 40.5 PTS+REB+AST | 54.00% | 4 | WIN |
GS@MIN | MIN -6.5 | 54.40% | 4 | LOSS |
DEN@OKC | NIKOLA JOKIC UNDER 36.5 POINTS + ASSTS | 53.20% | 3 | LOSS |
IND@CLE | IND +8.5 | 55.70% | 5 | WIN |
HOU@GS | GS -5 | 53.70% | 3 | LOSS |
HOU@GS | BRANDIN PODZIEMSKI UNDER 5.5 REBOUNDS | 54.10% | 4 | LOSS |
DEN@LAC | MICHAEL PORTER UNDER 7.5 REBS + AST | 53.20% | 3 | WIN |
DEN@LAC | UNDER 212.5 | 54.00% | 3 | LOSS |
MIN@LAL | MIN +6 | 53.80% | 3 | WIN |
MIN@LAL | NAZ REID OVER 1.5 ASSTS | 54.80% | 4 | WIN |
LAC@DEN | IVICA ZUBAC OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS | 53.50% | 3 | LOSS |
DET@NY | DET +5.5 | 53.90% | 3 | WIN |
CLE@MIA | EVAN MOBLEY UNDER 29.5 PTS+REB+AST | 53.90% | 3 | WIN |
BOS@ORL | KRISTAPS PORZINGIS UNDER 8.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS | 53.10% | 3 | WIN |
HOU@GS | GS -3 | 53.70% | 3 | WIN |
HOU@GS | JALEN GREEN OVER 2.5 TURNOVERS | 54.40% | 4 | LOSS |
LAL@MIN | LEBRON JAMES UNDER 31.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS | 54.50% | 4 | LOSS |
BOS@ORL | BOS -3.5 | 54.70% | 4 | LOSS |
DEN@LAC | BOGDAN BOGDANOVIC OVER 2.5 THREE POINTERS ATTEMPTED | 53.60% | 3 | LOSS |
GS@HOU | JALEN GREEN UNDER 3.5 FREE THROWS MADE | 54.40% | 4 | LOSS |
ORL@BOS | ORL +10.5 | 54.70% | 4 | WIN |
MEM@OKC | ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN OVER 19.5 PTS + REB | 53.80% | 3 | LOSS |
MEM@OKC | OKC -14.5 | 54.80% | 4 | WIN |
LAC@DEN | IVICA ZUBAC OVER 3.5 OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS | 53.30% | 3 | LOSS |