Cavaliers vs Pacers Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NBA Lines & Props (May 11)

Updated: 2025-05-09T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers face off in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference Semifinal series on Sunday, May 11, 2025, at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Pacers currently lead the series 2-1 after a 121-112 victory in Game 3, putting pressure on the top-seeded Cavaliers to respond and avoid a daunting 3-1 deficit.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 11, 2025

Start Time: 8:00 PM EST​

Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse​

Pacers Record: (50-32)

Cavaliers Record: (64-18)

OPENING ODDS

CLE Moneyline: -214

IND Moneyline: +177

CLE Spread: -5

IND Spread: +5.0

Over/Under: 230.5

CLE
Betting Trends

  • The Cavaliers have been strong against the spread (ATS) this season, posting a 51-36-1 record, indicating consistent performance relative to betting expectations.

IND
Betting Trends

  • The Pacers have struggled ATS this season, with a 41-45-3 record, reflecting challenges in covering spreads despite their overall success.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Despite the Cavaliers’ superior ATS record, the Pacers have managed to cover the spread in recent matchups against Cleveland, including their Game 3 victory, suggesting a potential trend favoring Indiana in this series.

CLE vs. IND
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Garland over 22.5 PTS+REB+AST.

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Cleveland vs Indiana Prediction & Odds:
Free NBA Betting Insights for 5/11/25

The Eastern Conference Semifinal series between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers has taken a dramatic and somewhat unexpected turn, as the underdog Pacers now hold a 2-1 series lead following a high-energy 121-112 victory in Game 3 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Coming into the series, the Cavaliers were viewed as the more complete and battle-tested squad, having earned a 64-18 regular season record behind the backcourt brilliance of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, and a defense that ranked among the league’s most efficient. But that identity has yet to fully materialize in this series, particularly on the defensive end where Cleveland has struggled to keep pace with Indiana’s tempo-driven, motion-heavy offense. The Pacers, led by Tyrese Haliburton, have transformed this matchup into a test of adaptability, leveraging their speed, spacing, and opportunistic ball movement to pick apart Cleveland’s slower half-court sets and capitalize on transition mismatches. Haliburton’s command of the floor—especially his ability to create for others—has amplified the impact of scorers like Buddy Hield and Myles Turner, while Andrew Nembhard’s poise has provided an X-factor off the bench. For Cleveland, Mitchell continues to deliver offensively, averaging over 28 points per game in the series, but the scoring burden he shoulders has started to limit ball movement and efficiency, particularly in fourth quarters.

Garland has shown flashes of assertiveness, and Evan Mobley’s inside presence has moments of effectiveness, but collectively, the Cavaliers have been unable to string together consistent stops or exploit Indiana’s own defensive gaps. Rebounding has become a critical concern, as Indiana has routinely won the battle on the offensive glass, leading to backbreaking second-chance points that swing momentum and force Cleveland into uphill battles. Coach J.B. Bickerstaff is now tasked with finding answers on both ends—whether that means shortening the rotation, tweaking matchups, or inserting more perimeter defenders to contain Indiana’s spacing. On the flip side, Rick Carlisle’s tactical blueprint has worked beautifully, allowing his young Pacers team to play with freedom and rhythm while keeping the pressure on Cleveland’s defense with early shot-clock execution. Game 4 presents a massive fork in the road: an Indiana win puts them up 3-1 with a stranglehold on the series, while a Cleveland response ties things up and reasserts their role as a championship contender. The series has become a battle of tempo, physical endurance, and mental poise—if the Cavs can slow the game down, execute in the half court, and improve their rebounding effort, they have the pieces to storm back. But if Indiana continues to run, spread the floor, and shoot with confidence, they may very well pull off the upset and continue their electrifying postseason run. Everything is on the line in Game 4, and both teams know it—expect playoff urgency to be at a fever pitch.

Cleveland Cavaliers NBA Preview

The Cleveland Cavaliers enter Game 4 of their Eastern Conference Semifinals matchup against the Indiana Pacers trailing 2-1 in a series that has exposed unexpected cracks in their typically rock-solid foundation. Despite dominating the regular season with a 64-18 record and earning the top seed in the East, the Cavaliers now find themselves in a must-win situation after dropping two straight games to a fast-paced, confident Indiana squad. Donovan Mitchell has been the engine of the offense, averaging over 28 points per game in the series and showcasing his trademark ability to create off the dribble and finish through contact. However, Cleveland’s heavy dependence on Mitchell to generate points and momentum has made their offense somewhat predictable, especially in late-game scenarios where the ball stagnates and off-ball movement wanes. Darius Garland has had productive stretches, but consistency from the secondary scoring options—particularly Evan Mobley and Caris LeVert—has been lacking. Mobley has contributed on the defensive end with rim protection and switchability, but Indiana’s spacing and motion have often drawn him away from the paint, allowing for offensive rebounding and interior scoring opportunities that the Pacers have repeatedly exploited. The Cavaliers’ defense, normally their strongest asset, has struggled to adapt to the speed and creativity of Indiana’s offense, which thrives on quick passes, early shot-clock looks, and misdirection.

Tyrese Haliburton has orchestrated with surgical precision, and Cleveland’s inability to disrupt his rhythm has put enormous strain on their perimeter defenders. Rebounding has also become a liability, with Indiana consistently outworking Cleveland on the glass—particularly on the offensive end where second-chance points have proven deflating. Coach J.B. Bickerstaff is under pressure to make meaningful adjustments, possibly by tightening the rotation, increasing minutes for defensive-minded players like Isaac Okoro, and experimenting with lineups that can better match Indiana’s pace. The Cavaliers must also get more out of their bench, which has been largely ineffective in this series and unable to sustain leads or provide energy during dry spells. If Cleveland hopes to even the series and regain control, they’ll need a collective effort: better ball movement, improved rebounding, tighter closeouts on shooters, and smarter situational play in the fourth quarter. The talent is there—this is a team that played with discipline and purpose all year—but now they must respond to adversity in a hostile road environment. Game 4 represents a defining moment for this Cavaliers group, not just in terms of playoff survival but in proving that their regular-season success was no fluke. A win resets the tone and turns the series into a best-of-three; a loss, and Cleveland returns home facing elimination with more questions than answers. The Cavaliers must channel their defensive identity, rally around Mitchell’s leadership, and show the grit and composure that made them the top seed in the first place.

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers face off in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference Semifinal series on Sunday, May 11, 2025, at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Pacers currently lead the series 2-1 after a 121-112 victory in Game 3, putting pressure on the top-seeded Cavaliers to respond and avoid a daunting 3-1 deficit. Cleveland vs Indiana AI Prediction: Free NBA Betting Insights for May 11. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Indiana Pacers NBA Preview

The Indiana Pacers return to Gainbridge Fieldhouse for Game 4 of their Eastern Conference Semifinals matchup with a 2-1 series lead and a golden opportunity to take full control against the heavily favored Cleveland Cavaliers. Fresh off a 121-112 victory in Game 3 that showcased their offensive firepower and poise under pressure, the Pacers have embraced the underdog role and executed a game plan that has continuously frustrated Cleveland’s elite defense. Tyrese Haliburton has been the undisputed catalyst, using his vision, timing, and control to pick apart the Cavaliers’ rotations and keep Indiana’s offense humming at a blistering pace. Averaging over 10 assists per game in the postseason, Haliburton’s ability to create high-quality looks has elevated the performance of his teammates, most notably Myles Turner and Buddy Hield. Turner’s presence in the paint has been pivotal—not only protecting the rim with well-timed blocks but also anchoring the rebounding effort that has quietly become a defining edge for Indiana. Hield’s perimeter shooting has stretched Cleveland’s defense thin, creating more space in the lane for cutters and secondary actions. The Pacers have also seen valuable contributions from their supporting cast, including Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith, who have delivered energy, defensive grit, and timely buckets off the bench. Coach Rick Carlisle has masterfully guided his group through each adjustment, blending veteran savvy with a green-light philosophy that empowers shooters and demands constant movement.

What’s separated Indiana in this series is not just their ability to score—their 120+ point outputs reflect that—but their defensive intensity and commitment to winning 50-50 balls. They’ve out-rebounded Cleveland consistently, limited second-chance points defensively, and pushed the ball quickly off missed shots, turning rebounds into immediate scoring threats before the Cavaliers can set their defense. On their home floor, the Pacers have fed off the crowd’s energy and played with elevated confidence, showing composure in close quarters and resilience when runs have gone against them. While Haliburton is the engine, Indiana’s team-wide buy-in and balance have made them dangerous at every position. Heading into Game 4, the key will be maintaining their pace without forcing shots, keeping Haliburton out of foul trouble, and continuing to win the rebounding and turnover battles. With Cleveland’s back against the wall, Indiana knows they’ll be tested, but they also recognize the opportunity in front of them. A win not only puts them up 3-1—it sends a message that they belong in the contender conversation. For a team that entered the playoffs with less fanfare than their opponent, the Pacers have completely flipped the narrative and now have a chance to put a stranglehold on the series. If they stay true to their identity—unselfish, quick, physical, and confident—Indiana may be just one more breakout performance away from pulling off one of the most impactful series wins of the postseason.

Cleveland vs. Indiana Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of datapoints on each player. In fact, anytime the Cavaliers and Pacers play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in May almost always follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Garland over 22.5 PTS+REB+AST.

Cleveland vs. Indiana Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over tons of data from every facet between the Cavaliers and Pacers and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.

Interestingly enough, the data has been most fixated on the trending factor emotional bettors tend to put on coaching factors between a Cavaliers team going up against a possibly healthy Pacers team. In reality, the true game analytics appear to reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line in particular.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NBA AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Cleveland vs Indiana picks, computer picks Cavaliers vs Pacers, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
NBA 11/8 POR@MIA UNLOCK THIS PICK 7 VAULT v3 Locked VAULT v3
NBA 11/8 LAL@ATL UNLOCK THIS PICK 6 VAULT v2 Locked VAULT v2
NBA 11/8 IND@DEN UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL
NBA 11/8 CHI@CLE UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NBA schedule.

Cavaliers Betting Trends

The Cavaliers have been strong against the spread (ATS) this season, posting a 51-36-1 record, indicating consistent performance relative to betting expectations.

Pacers Betting Trends

The Pacers have struggled ATS this season, with a 41-45-3 record, reflecting challenges in covering spreads despite their overall success.

Cavaliers vs. Pacers Matchup Trends

Despite the Cavaliers’ superior ATS record, the Pacers have managed to cover the spread in recent matchups against Cleveland, including their Game 3 victory, suggesting a potential trend favoring Indiana in this series.

Cleveland vs. Indiana Game Info

Cleveland vs Indiana starts on May 11, 2025 at 8:00 PM EST.

Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Spread: Indiana +5.0
Moneyline: Cleveland -214, Indiana +177
Over/Under: 230.5

Cleveland: (64-18)  |  Indiana: (50-32)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Garland over 22.5 PTS+REB+AST.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

Despite the Cavaliers’ superior ATS record, the Pacers have managed to cover the spread in recent matchups against Cleveland, including their Game 3 victory, suggesting a potential trend favoring Indiana in this series.

CLE trend: The Cavaliers have been strong against the spread (ATS) this season, posting a 51-36-1 record, indicating consistent performance relative to betting expectations.

IND trend: The Pacers have struggled ATS this season, with a 41-45-3 record, reflecting challenges in covering spreads despite their overall success.

See our latest NBA picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Cleveland vs. Indiana Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Cleveland vs Indiana trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.

Cleveland vs Indiana Opening Odds

CLE Moneyline: -214
IND Moneyline: +177
CLE Spread: -5
IND Spread: +5.0
Over/Under: 230.5

Cleveland vs Indiana Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Nov 9, 2025 3:30PM EST
Houston Rockets
Milwaukee Bucks
11/9/25 3:30PM
Rockets
Bucks
-162
+130
-3.5 (-113)
+3.5 (-112)
O 232 (-113)
U 232 (-112)
Nov 9, 2025 6:00PM EST
Brooklyn Nets
New York Knicks
11/9/25 6PM
Nets
Knicks
+700
-1250
+16 (-115)
-16 (-110)
O 228.5 (-114)
U 228.5 (-112)
Nov 9, 2025 6:10PM EST
Oklahoma City Thunder
Memphis Grizzlies
11/9/25 6:10PM
Thunder
Grizzlies
-530
+370
-10.5 (-115)
+10.5 (-110)
O 233.5 (-112)
U 233.5 (-114)
Nov 9, 2025 6:10PM EST
Boston Celtics
Orlando Magic
11/9/25 6:10PM
Celtics
Magic
+125
-155
+3.5 (-117)
-3.5 (-109)
O 226.5 (-113)
U 226.5 (-113)
Nov 9, 2025 7:30PM EST
Detroit Pistons
Philadelphia 76ers
11/9/25 7:30PM
Pistons
76ers
-175
+135
-4 (-109)
+4 (-115)
O 232.5 (-114)
U 232.5 (-112)
Nov 9, 2025 8:40PM EST
Indiana Pacers
Golden State Warriors
11/9/25 8:40PM
Pacers
Warriors
+450
-670
+12.5 (-110)
-12.5 (-115)
O 227.5 (-113)
U 227.5 (-113)
Nov 9, 2025 9:10PM EST
Minnesota Timberwolves
Sacramento Kings
11/9/25 9:10PM
Timberwolves
Kings
-235
+185
-5.5 (-112)
+5.5 (-114)
O 234.5 (-115)
U 234.5 (-110)
Dec 25, 2025 12:00PM EST
Cleveland Cavaliers
New York Knicks
12/25/25 12PM
Cavaliers
Knicks
+117
-143
+2.5 (-113)
-2.5 (-113)
O 229.5 (-113)
U 229.5 (-113)
Dec 25, 2025 5:00PM EST
Dallas Mavericks
Golden State Warriors
12/25/25 5PM
Mavericks
Warriors
+150
-195
+4.5 (-112)
-4.5 (-114)
O 227 (-115)
U 227 (-110)
Dec 25, 2025 10:30PM EST
Minnesota Timberwolves
Denver Nuggets
12/25/25 10:30PM
Timberwolves
Nuggets
+175
-220
+5 (-109)
-5 (-117)
O 229.5 (-112)
U 229.5 (-114)

NBA Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers on May 11, 2025 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NBA odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
DAL@MEM MEM -4 56.3% 6 WIN
TOR@ATL TOR +118 48.0% 3 WIN
CHA@MIA OVER 235.5 54.3% 3 LOSS
LAC@PHX PHX -135 58.9% 7 WIN
PHI@CLE PHI +10.5 53.3% 3 LOSS
MIA@DEN MIA +9.5 53.7% 3 LOSS
OKC@POR POR +4.5 52.9% 3 WIN
HOU@MEM MEM +8.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
UTA@DET UTA +10 56.8% 6 LOSS
NO@DAL TREY MURPHY III OVER 25.5 PTS & REB 55.5% 5 LOSS
ORL@ATL ORL -3.5 56.5% 6 LOSS
MIL@TOR MIL +3.5 56.5% 4 LOSS
PHX@GS STEPH CURRY UNDER 4.5 THREE PTRS MADE 53.3% 3 LOSS
OKC@LAC JAMES HARDEN OVER 12.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAL@POR POR -2.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
SA@PHX SA -5.5 56.6% 6 LOSS
ORL@WAS WAS +9 54.2% 4 LOSS
DAL@DET DAL +8 58.7% 8 LOSS
NY@CHI NY -4.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
BOS@PHI BOS +1.5 54.6% 4 WIN
TOR@CLE TOR +6 56.2% 6 WIN
DEN@POR JERAMI GRANT OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 56.6% 6 WIN
WAS@OKC WAS +15.5 54.9% 4 LOSS
NO@DEN DEN -12.5 53.6% 3 WIN
NO@DEN NIKOLA JOKIC OVER 26.5 POINTS 56.6% 6 LOSS
SAC@OKC SAC +10 54.7% 4 WIN
NY@MIL MIL +3 56.6% 6 WIN
LAC@GS GS +2.5 56.8% 6 WIN
LAC@GS BRANDIN PODZIEMSKI UNDER 1.5 THREE POINTERS MADE 55.5% 5 LOSS
CLE@DET DET +2.5 53.5% 3 LOSS
ORL@PHI ORL -5 54.7% 4 LOSS
OKC@DAL DAL +9 66.4% 6 WIN
BOS@NO NO +2 55.6% 5 LOSS
BKN@HOU BKN +16.5 57.0% 7 LOSS
BOS@NO TREY MURPHY III UNDER 25.5 PTS + REB 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@CLE MIL +6.5 56.1% 6 WIN
POR@LAC POR +8.5 56.5% 6 WIN
ATL@ORL ATL +5 54.6% 4 WIN
WAS@DAL WAS +10 55.3% 5 WIN
PHX@LAC IVICA ZUBAC OVER 6.5 MADE FIELD GOALS 55.5% 5 LOSS
OKC@IND IND +8 56.5% 6 WIN
CLE@NY CLE -116 55.0% 4 LOSS
LAC@UTA UTA +9.5 54.1% 4 WIN
WAS@MIL KYLE KUZMA OVER 1.5 ASSTS 55.5% 5 WIN
HOU@OKC HOU +6.5 54.8% 4 WIN
GS@LAL STEPHEN CURRY UNDER 2.5 TURNOVERS 54.4 4 WIN
IND@OKC SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER OVER 1.5 STEALS 54.90% 4 LOSS
IND@OKC JALEN WILLIAMS OVER 0.5 1Q REBOUNDS 55.70% 5 WIN
OKC@IND TJ MCCONNELL UNDER 7.5 TWO POINT ATT 55.70% 5 LOSS
IND@OKC CHET HOLMGREN OVER 1.5 SHOTS BLOCKED 53.40% 3 WIN
OKC@IND TJ MCCONNELL OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 53.00% 3 LOSS