Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NBA Lines & Props (May 09)

Updated: 2025-05-07T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets will clash in Game 3 of their Western Conference Semifinals on Friday, May 9, 2025, at Ball Arena in Denver. The Thunder, leading the series 2–0, aim to extend their dominance, while the Nuggets look to leverage home-court advantage to mount a comeback.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 09, 2025

Start Time: 10:00 PM EST​

Venue: Ball Arena​

Nuggets Record: (50-32)

Thunder Record: (68-14)

OPENING ODDS

OKC Moneyline: -214

DEN Moneyline: +176

OKC Spread: -5

DEN Spread: +5.0

Over/Under: 233.5

OKC
Betting Trends

  • The Thunder have been impressive against the spread (ATS) this season, boasting a 56–28–2 record, including playoffs, reflecting their consistent performance in covering the spread.

DEN
Betting Trends

  • The Nuggets have struggled ATS this season, with a 38–45 record, indicating challenges in meeting betting expectations.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Historically, the Nuggets have covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against the Thunder, suggesting a potential edge in this specific matchup.

OKC vs. DEN
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: C. Wallace under 4.5 Hits.

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Oklahoma City vs Denver Prediction & Odds:
Free NBA Betting Insights for 5/9/25

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets face off in Game 3 of their Western Conference Semifinals on Friday, May 9, 2025, at Ball Arena with the Thunder leading the series 2–0 and the Nuggets fighting to avoid falling into an almost insurmountable hole. The Thunder have been dominant throughout the postseason, including a 4–0 sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies in Round 1, and have carried that momentum into this series by outpacing, outshooting, and outworking the defending champion Nuggets through two games. Led by MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 32.7 points per game in the playoffs while orchestrating one of the most efficient offenses in the league, Oklahoma City has dictated the tempo with its mix of athleticism, ball movement, and defensive intensity. Rookie standout Chet Holmgren and two-way guard Jalen Williams have given the Thunder a well-rounded attack, while their bench continues to contribute valuable minutes, showing maturity and poise beyond their years. Defensively, Oklahoma City ranks among the top five in opponent field goal percentage and points allowed per game, and their ability to switch and close out on shooters has frustrated Denver’s usually high-octane offense. For the Nuggets, Nikola Jokić remains a statistical monster—averaging nearly 30 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists per game this postseason—but has received inconsistent support from the rest of the roster. Jamal Murray has been streaky since returning from injury, and role players like Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon have not provided the scoring punch Denver needs to keep pace with OKC’s deep and aggressive lineup.

The Nuggets’ defense has been their Achilles’ heel, ranking just 20th in defensive rating during the playoffs, and they’ve been particularly vulnerable in transition, where Oklahoma City thrives. Denver’s struggles to contain drives, rotate effectively on the perimeter, and defend without fouling have led to an avalanche of easy points for the Thunder, who excel at getting to the line and converting second-chance opportunities. As the series shifts to Ball Arena, the Nuggets hope the energy of the home crowd and adjustments from coach Michael Malone can help them reset the tone of the series. Expect Denver to push the ball more aggressively, make targeted defensive adjustments—possibly deploying more zone or trap schemes—and try to limit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s touches while forcing OKC’s supporting cast to beat them. For Oklahoma City, the formula remains unchanged: maintain their composure, force turnovers, and let their depth and versatility wear down a Denver team that looks fatigued and mentally rattled. Game 3 will be a critical juncture—if the Thunder can steal a win on the road, they’ll go up 3–0 and all but seal the series; if Denver responds with intensity and execution, it could shift momentum and set up a long battle. With youth, speed, and confidence on their side, Oklahoma City enters this matchup with a golden opportunity to take full control, while the defending champs must dig deep and rediscover the urgency and defensive discipline that earned them the title last season.

Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder enter Game 3 of their Western Conference Semifinals series against the Denver Nuggets holding a commanding 2–0 lead, fueled by one of the most impressive and complete performances in the postseason so far. This Thunder team, young but fearless, has showcased maturity, execution, and defensive toughness beyond its years, and is now in position to put the defending champions on the brink of elimination. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has led the charge with a brilliant playoff run, averaging 32.7 points per game while controlling pace, slicing through defenses, and making clutch plays in isolation and pick-and-roll situations. He’s been complemented by rookie center Chet Holmgren, whose rim protection and floor spacing have altered how teams approach the paint, and Jalen Williams, who continues to impress as a versatile wing that can score, defend, and facilitate. Coach Mark Daigneault has kept rotations tight but balanced, relying on his bench to sustain energy and tempo, which has allowed OKC to wear down opponents both physically and mentally. The Thunder’s defense has been relentless—active hands on the perimeter, smart switches, and excellent rebounding have all contributed to holding playoff opponents to under 108 points per game, a mark that has stifled the Nuggets’ normally efficient offense.

What sets this Thunder team apart is its ability to adapt; whether it’s countering Denver’s two-man game with Jokić and Murray or closing out to contest three-point shooters, OKC has shown discipline and tactical awareness. Their depth has also played a major role, with players like Isaiah Joe and Lu Dort stepping up to hit threes and apply defensive pressure on opposing guards. Heading into Game 3, Oklahoma City’s mindset will be centered on keeping the same intensity and composure that got them here—dictating pace, winning the battle in transition, and forcing Denver’s secondary players to make tough decisions under pressure. A win would give the Thunder a 3–0 stranglehold on the series and validate them as not just a rising force, but a legitimate championship contender. This game is about finishing what they’ve started—taking control early, executing late, and continuing to prove that their blend of talent, chemistry, and defensive excellence is ready to topple the best in the West.

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets will clash in Game 3 of their Western Conference Semifinals on Friday, May 9, 2025, at Ball Arena in Denver. The Thunder, leading the series 2–0, aim to extend their dominance, while the Nuggets look to leverage home-court advantage to mount a comeback. Oklahoma City vs Denver AI Prediction: Free NBA Betting Insights for May 09. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Denver Nuggets NBA Preview

The Denver Nuggets return home for Game 3 of their Western Conference Semifinal series against the Oklahoma City Thunder facing a daunting 0–2 deficit and in desperate need of a bounce-back performance to preserve their hopes of repeating as NBA champions. After battling through a grueling seven-game first-round series against the Clippers, the Nuggets have looked physically drained and strategically overwhelmed against a younger, faster, and more defensively cohesive Thunder squad. Nikola Jokić has continued to do everything in his power—averaging nearly 30 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists per game this postseason—but the help around him has largely failed to show up when it matters most. Jamal Murray, nursing nagging injuries, has struggled with efficiency and ball security, and the supporting cast—particularly Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon—has not provided the consistent scoring or defensive resistance needed to relieve the pressure from Jokić. Denver’s defense, which was once elite at home, has been porous throughout this series, struggling mightily to contain Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s drives and the Thunder’s spacing that punishes poor rotations and slow closeouts. The Nuggets rank just 20th in playoff defensive rating, a far cry from their championship-caliber form last season, and they’ve allowed OKC to dictate pace, dominate transition, and control second-chance points with energy and hustle.

Head coach Michael Malone is likely to consider rotational changes or defensive adjustments, such as switching more aggressively on screens or incorporating zone looks to slow down the Thunder’s offensive rhythm. Denver also needs a resurgence from its bench unit, which has been ineffective in stemming momentum or holding leads, especially when Jokić sits. The return to Ball Arena should provide a jolt of energy, where the Nuggets went 33–8 during the regular season, but they’ll need more than crowd noise—they need physicality, purpose, and accountability from the opening tip. Limiting turnovers, crashing the glass, and getting to the free-throw line will be crucial to controlling tempo and keeping the Thunder from running in transition. For Denver, Game 3 is the ultimate test of championship resolve. They must rediscover the identity that made them dangerous last postseason: methodical offense, stingy defense, and unselfish playmaking. If they can respond with force, they have the talent and experience to shift the tone of the series. But another loss at home would almost certainly doom their title defense. The pressure is squarely on the Nuggets now—to regroup, respond, and remind everyone why they’re still one of the league’s most dangerous teams when their backs are against the wall.

Oklahoma City vs. Denver Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of data on each player. In fact, anytime the Thunder and Nuggets play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Ball Arena in May almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: C. Wallace under 4.5 Hits.

Oklahoma City vs. Denver Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over millions of data from every facet between the Thunder and Nuggets and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to boil down the data to a single cover probability.

The Algorithm has been most fixated on the growing weight human bettors regularly put on coaching factors between a Thunder team going up against a possibly healthy Nuggets team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line in particular.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NBA AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Oklahoma City vs Denver picks, computer picks Thunder vs Nuggets, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
NBA 11/8 POR@MIA UNLOCK THIS PICK 7 VAULT v3 Locked VAULT v3
NBA 11/8 LAL@ATL UNLOCK THIS PICK 6 VAULT v2 Locked VAULT v2
NBA 11/8 IND@DEN UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL
NBA 11/8 CHI@CLE UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NBA schedule.

Thunder Betting Trends

The Thunder have been impressive against the spread (ATS) this season, boasting a 56–28–2 record, including playoffs, reflecting their consistent performance in covering the spread.

Nuggets Betting Trends

The Nuggets have struggled ATS this season, with a 38–45 record, indicating challenges in meeting betting expectations.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Matchup Trends

Historically, the Nuggets have covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against the Thunder, suggesting a potential edge in this specific matchup.

Oklahoma City vs. Denver Game Info

Oklahoma City vs Denver starts on May 09, 2025 at 10:00 PM EST.

Spread: Denver +5.0
Moneyline: Oklahoma City -214, Denver +176
Over/Under: 233.5

Oklahoma City: (68-14)  |  Denver: (50-32)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: C. Wallace under 4.5 Hits.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

Historically, the Nuggets have covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against the Thunder, suggesting a potential edge in this specific matchup.

OKC trend: The Thunder have been impressive against the spread (ATS) this season, boasting a 56–28–2 record, including playoffs, reflecting their consistent performance in covering the spread.

DEN trend: The Nuggets have struggled ATS this season, with a 38–45 record, indicating challenges in meeting betting expectations.

See our latest NBA picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Oklahoma City vs. Denver Odds

Remi is pouring through loads of stats on each player. In fact, anytime the Oklahoma City vs Denver trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.

Oklahoma City vs Denver Opening Odds

OKC Moneyline: -214
DEN Moneyline: +176
OKC Spread: -5
DEN Spread: +5.0
Over/Under: 233.5

Oklahoma City vs Denver Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Nov 9, 2025 3:30PM EST
Houston Rockets
Milwaukee Bucks
11/9/25 3:30PM
Rockets
Bucks
-175
+145
-4.5 (-102)
+4.5 (-118)
O 231.5 (-115)
U 231.5 (-105)
Nov 9, 2025 6:00PM EST
Brooklyn Nets
New York Knicks
11/9/25 6PM
Nets
Knicks
+750
-1200
+15.5 (-110)
-15.5 (-110)
O 227.5 (-115)
U 227.5 (-105)
Nov 9, 2025 6:10PM EST
Oklahoma City Thunder
Memphis Grizzlies
11/9/25 6:10PM
Thunder
Grizzlies
-500
+380
-10.5 (-108)
+10.5 (-112)
O 233.5 (-110)
U 233.5 (-110)
Nov 9, 2025 6:10PM EST
Boston Celtics
Orlando Magic
11/9/25 6:10PM
Celtics
Magic
+136
-162
+3.5 (-115)
-3.5 (-105)
O 226.5 (-110)
U 226.5 (-110)
Nov 9, 2025 7:30PM EST
Detroit Pistons
Philadelphia 76ers
11/9/25 7:30PM
Pistons
76ers
-162
+136
-3.5 (-112)
+3.5 (-108)
O 232.5 (-110)
U 232.5 (-110)
Nov 9, 2025 8:40PM EST
Indiana Pacers
Golden State Warriors
11/9/25 8:40PM
Pacers
Warriors
+500
-700
+12.5 (-108)
-12.5 (-112)
O 227.5 (-112)
U 227.5 (-108)
Nov 9, 2025 9:10PM EST
Minnesota Timberwolves
Sacramento Kings
11/9/25 9:10PM
Timberwolves
Kings
-218
+180
-5.5 (-105)
+5.5 (-115)
O 234.5 (-110)
U 234.5 (-110)
Dec 25, 2025 12:00PM EST
Cleveland Cavaliers
New York Knicks
12/25/25 12PM
Cavaliers
Knicks
+117
-143
+2.5 (-113)
-2.5 (-113)
O 229.5 (-113)
U 229.5 (-113)
Dec 25, 2025 5:00PM EST
Dallas Mavericks
Golden State Warriors
12/25/25 5PM
Mavericks
Warriors
+150
-195
+4.5 (-112)
-4.5 (-114)
O 227 (-115)
U 227 (-110)
Dec 25, 2025 10:30PM EST
Minnesota Timberwolves
Denver Nuggets
12/25/25 10:30PM
Timberwolves
Nuggets
+175
-220
+5 (-109)
-5 (-117)
O 229.5 (-112)
U 229.5 (-114)

NBA Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets on May 09, 2025 at Ball Arena.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NBA odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
DAL@MEM MEM -4 56.3% 6 WIN
TOR@ATL TOR +118 48.0% 3 WIN
CHA@MIA OVER 235.5 54.3% 3 LOSS
LAC@PHX PHX -135 58.9% 7 WIN
PHI@CLE PHI +10.5 53.3% 3 LOSS
MIA@DEN MIA +9.5 53.7% 3 LOSS
OKC@POR POR +4.5 52.9% 3 WIN
HOU@MEM MEM +8.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
UTA@DET UTA +10 56.8% 6 LOSS
NO@DAL TREY MURPHY III OVER 25.5 PTS & REB 55.5% 5 LOSS
ORL@ATL ORL -3.5 56.5% 6 LOSS
MIL@TOR MIL +3.5 56.5% 4 LOSS
PHX@GS STEPH CURRY UNDER 4.5 THREE PTRS MADE 53.3% 3 LOSS
OKC@LAC JAMES HARDEN OVER 12.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAL@POR POR -2.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
SA@PHX SA -5.5 56.6% 6 LOSS
ORL@WAS WAS +9 54.2% 4 LOSS
DAL@DET DAL +8 58.7% 8 LOSS
NY@CHI NY -4.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
BOS@PHI BOS +1.5 54.6% 4 WIN
TOR@CLE TOR +6 56.2% 6 WIN
DEN@POR JERAMI GRANT OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 56.6% 6 WIN
WAS@OKC WAS +15.5 54.9% 4 LOSS
NO@DEN DEN -12.5 53.6% 3 WIN
NO@DEN NIKOLA JOKIC OVER 26.5 POINTS 56.6% 6 LOSS
SAC@OKC SAC +10 54.7% 4 WIN
NY@MIL MIL +3 56.6% 6 WIN
LAC@GS GS +2.5 56.8% 6 WIN
LAC@GS BRANDIN PODZIEMSKI UNDER 1.5 THREE POINTERS MADE 55.5% 5 LOSS
CLE@DET DET +2.5 53.5% 3 LOSS
ORL@PHI ORL -5 54.7% 4 LOSS
OKC@DAL DAL +9 66.4% 6 WIN
BOS@NO NO +2 55.6% 5 LOSS
BKN@HOU BKN +16.5 57.0% 7 LOSS
BOS@NO TREY MURPHY III UNDER 25.5 PTS + REB 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@CLE MIL +6.5 56.1% 6 WIN
POR@LAC POR +8.5 56.5% 6 WIN
ATL@ORL ATL +5 54.6% 4 WIN
WAS@DAL WAS +10 55.3% 5 WIN
PHX@LAC IVICA ZUBAC OVER 6.5 MADE FIELD GOALS 55.5% 5 LOSS
OKC@IND IND +8 56.5% 6 WIN
CLE@NY CLE -116 55.0% 4 LOSS
LAC@UTA UTA +9.5 54.1% 4 WIN
WAS@MIL KYLE KUZMA OVER 1.5 ASSTS 55.5% 5 WIN
HOU@OKC HOU +6.5 54.8% 4 WIN
GS@LAL STEPHEN CURRY UNDER 2.5 TURNOVERS 54.4 4 WIN
IND@OKC SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER OVER 1.5 STEALS 54.90% 4 LOSS
IND@OKC JALEN WILLIAMS OVER 0.5 1Q REBOUNDS 55.70% 5 WIN
OKC@IND TJ MCCONNELL UNDER 7.5 TWO POINT ATT 55.70% 5 LOSS
IND@OKC CHET HOLMGREN OVER 1.5 SHOTS BLOCKED 53.40% 3 WIN
OKC@IND TJ MCCONNELL OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 53.00% 3 LOSS