Nuggets vs. Thunder
Prediction, Odds & Props
May 07 | NBA AI Picks

Updated: 2025-05-05T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, in Game 2 of their Western Conference Semifinals series. The Thunder lead the series 1–0 after a commanding Game 1 victory.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 07, 2025

Start Time: 9:30 PM EST​

Venue: Paycom Center​

Thunder Record: (68-14)

Nuggets Record: (50-32)

OPENING ODDS

DEN Moneyline: +416

OKC Moneyline: -568

DEN Spread: +11

OKC Spread: -11.0

Over/Under: 229.5

DEN
Betting Trends

  • The Denver Nuggets have a 38–45 record against the spread (ATS) this season.

OKC
Betting Trends

  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 56–28–2 record against the spread (ATS) this season.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oklahoma City’s last 9 games against Denver.

DEN vs. OKC
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: M. Porter over 15.5 PTS+REB+AST.

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Denver vs Oklahoma City Prediction & Odds:
Free NBA Betting Insights for 5/7/25

The Western Conference Semifinals continue on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, with Game 2 between the Denver Nuggets and the Oklahoma City Thunder, as the league’s top-seeded Thunder aim to extend their 1–0 series lead at home. Oklahoma City, who finished the regular season with a dominant 68–14 record, demonstrated in Game 1 why they’ve been the NBA’s most complete team this year, holding Denver to under 100 points and showcasing their elite defense that has carried over into the postseason. Led by MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder are thriving with a blend of youthful energy, length, switchable defenders, and an offense that flows through multiple creators, allowing them to adapt to different matchups fluidly. Their defense, which owns the league’s best postseason rating so far at 99.4, has been particularly stifling against Denver, with the total going UNDER in seven of the last nine meetings between these two clubs. Their home-court advantage has been pronounced, with a 9–1 record against the spread in their last 10 home games, and they’ve often buried opponents early by controlling tempo and getting out in transition off turnovers. Denver, meanwhile, comes in looking to regroup after a draining seven-game series win over the Clippers and a flat Game 1 performance in which fatigue may have played a role, though superstar center Nikola Jokić’s light 32-minute workload in Game 7 could help mitigate wear and tear.

The Nuggets, who finished the regular season 50–32 and remain the reigning NBA champions, are seeking to reset mentally and tactically in Game 2, knowing they cannot afford to return to Denver in an 0–2 hole. Their 38–45 record against the spread this season reflects struggles with consistency, especially on the road, and they’ll need significantly improved shot-making from Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. to stretch Oklahoma City’s disciplined defense and open up the floor for Jokić to operate. The key for Denver will be limiting Oklahoma City’s fast breaks and generating quality looks early in the shot clock before the Thunder’s set defense takes shape. For OKC, it’s about staying the course—dictating pace, keeping their rotations crisp, and letting SGA go to work in isolation or pick-and-roll against Denver’s slower bigs. The battle in the paint will be crucial; while Jokić gives Denver a technical edge on offense, Chet Holmgren’s rim protection and weakside help have disrupted plenty of interior touches, and his floor spacing offensively forces Denver’s bigs to guard the perimeter—something they’re less comfortable doing. If the Thunder can continue to control the glass, limit turnovers, and shoot efficiently from beyond the arc, they’ll be in excellent position to take a commanding lead in the series. On the flip side, Denver has the experience and talent to respond—but it will require their best game yet to wrest control away from a Thunder team that looks increasingly poised and championship-ready. Game 2 promises to be a crucial litmus test for both teams: for the Nuggets, a chance to remind everyone why they’re defending champs; for the Thunder, another step in what’s beginning to look like a deep postseason run built on youth, defense, and sheer will.

Denver Nuggets NBA Preview

The Denver Nuggets head into Game 2 of their Western Conference Semifinal series against the Oklahoma City Thunder facing both scoreboard pressure and the physical toll of a grueling playoff stretch. Fresh off a taxing seven-game series win over the Clippers, the Nuggets stumbled out of the gate in Game 1, falling short against a well-rested and disciplined Thunder squad that held them to under 100 points. Despite being the defending champions and having a 50–32 regular-season record, Denver has struggled with consistency, as reflected in their 38–45 record against the spread this year. At the heart of Denver’s hopes is two-time MVP Nikola Jokić, who continues to be the fulcrum of their offense, effortlessly orchestrating possessions with his passing, footwork, and court vision. While he logged just 32 minutes in Game 7 against L.A., his impact remains massive—but he’ll need more help if the Nuggets are going to even this series. Jamal Murray’s shot selection and ability to create off the dribble are essential to keeping Oklahoma City’s defense honest, and Michael Porter Jr. must find his rhythm from beyond the arc to stretch the floor. Denver’s biggest challenge remains overcoming Oklahoma City’s athletic, switch-heavy defense, which has effectively disrupted their rhythm in pick-and-roll actions and transition.

Defensively, Denver must adjust to the Thunder’s quick pace and versatile ball handlers, particularly Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, whose midrange game and ability to penetrate off switches have carved up the Nuggets in previous meetings. Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will be tasked with the tough defensive assignments, needing to chase shooters and stay in front of OKC’s guards without fouling. The Nuggets’ interior defense will also need to contend with Chet Holmgren’s floor spacing and rim running, which present unique challenges that few traditional bigs can handle comfortably. Coach Michael Malone must dig deeper into his bench and trust key role players like Christian Braun and Reggie Jackson to provide energy and scoring relief while managing minutes for starters who logged heavy playoff workloads. If Denver is to flip the series narrative, Game 2 has to include stronger starts, fewer defensive breakdowns, and far better execution in late-clock situations, where OKC’s defense thrives. The defending champs are no strangers to adversity and still possess the leadership and championship mettle to respond, but they’ll need a near-flawless effort in all phases to overcome a Thunder team that is brimming with confidence, cohesion, and momentum. For the Nuggets, this isn’t just about avoiding an 0–2 deficit—it’s about restoring identity, rhythm, and belief that they still have the resolve and versatility to defend their title.

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, in Game 2 of their Western Conference Semifinals series. The Thunder lead the series 1–0 after a commanding Game 1 victory. Denver vs Oklahoma City AI Prediction: Free NBA Betting Insights for May 07. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder enter Game 2 of their Western Conference Semifinals matchup against the Denver Nuggets carrying not only a 1–0 series lead but the weight of being this year’s most complete and consistent team, following a 68–14 regular-season campaign and a dominant playoff run thus far. Their Game 1 victory was a statement of intent—an emphatic, defense-first performance that suffocated Denver’s offense and showcased why OKC has emerged as a true title favorite in 2025. At the heart of their success is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who continues to play at an MVP-caliber level with his poised shot creation, unshakable midrange efficiency, and command over tempo; he has become the pulse of the Thunder, keeping them grounded in big moments while punishing defenses from every level of the floor. Surrounding him is a core of young, highly versatile players including Jalen Williams, Josh Giddey, and rookie sensation Chet Holmgren, whose rim protection, length, and mobility have transformed OKC into the top-rated playoff defense with a stunning 99.4 defensive rating. That defensive prowess has made it nearly impossible for opponents to find comfort—particularly bigs like Nikola Jokić, who faced constant disruption in Game 1 thanks to Holmgren’s anticipation and the Thunder’s aggressive help-and-recover schemes. Oklahoma City has also benefited from elite perimeter defense, with Lu Dort and Cason Wallace applying relentless pressure on opposing guards, limiting dribble penetration and forcing low-efficiency looks deep in the shot clock.

Offensively, OKC continues to play unselfish, fluid basketball, spacing the floor with three-point shooting, cutting off the ball with precision, and executing in transition thanks to their youth and athleticism. Their ability to score without relying solely on isolation sets has made them hard to scheme against, and their bench—led by Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins—has added valuable scoring punch and defensive hustle when called upon. At home, the Thunder have been nearly unbeatable, going 9–1 against the spread in their last ten games at Paycom Center, and feeding off the energy of a crowd that has quickly grown accustomed to high-stakes basketball. Head coach Mark Daigneault deserves immense credit for orchestrating OKC’s turnaround from rebuilding project to juggernaut, instilling discipline, role clarity, and defensive accountability across a deep, flexible roster. As they prepare for Game 2, the Thunder will aim to replicate their Game 1 formula—dictating pace, crowding Jokić with bodies, and limiting second-chance points—while continuing to let SGA control the flow and attacking mismatches with calculated aggression. For Oklahoma City, this isn’t just about taking a 2–0 series lead—it’s about maintaining their aura of dominance, reinforcing their identity, and showing that their regular-season brilliance can carry through the crucible of the postseason. With every win, they inch closer to proving that youth and experience can coexist when matched with intelligence, grit, and a belief that their time is now.

Denver vs. Oklahoma City Prop Picks (AI)

Remi is pouring through mountains of stats on each player. In fact, anytime the Nuggets and Thunder play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Paycom Center in May can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: M. Porter over 15.5 PTS+REB+AST.

Denver vs. Oklahoma City Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over millions of data from every facet between the Nuggets and Thunder and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.

The Algorithm has been most fixated on the linear correlation of factor knucklehead sportsbettors often put on Denver’s strength factors between a Nuggets team going up against a possibly deflated Thunder team. We’ve found the true game analytics appear to reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NBA AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Denver vs Oklahoma City picks, computer picks Nuggets vs Thunder, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NBA schedule.

Nuggets Betting Trends

The Denver Nuggets have a 38–45 record against the spread (ATS) this season.

Thunder Betting Trends

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 56–28–2 record against the spread (ATS) this season.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Matchup Trends

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oklahoma City’s last 9 games against Denver.

Denver vs. Oklahoma City Game Info

Denver vs Oklahoma City starts on May 07, 2025 at 9:30 PM EST.

Spread: Oklahoma City -11.0
Moneyline: Denver +416, Oklahoma City -568
Over/Under: 229.5

Denver: (50-32)  |  Oklahoma City: (68-14)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: M. Porter over 15.5 PTS+REB+AST.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oklahoma City’s last 9 games against Denver.

DEN trend: The Denver Nuggets have a 38–45 record against the spread (ATS) this season.

OKC trend: The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 56–28–2 record against the spread (ATS) this season.

See our latest NBA picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Denver vs. Oklahoma City Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of data on each line. In fact, anytime the Denver vs Oklahoma City trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme hostile environments seemingly never follow normal, predictable patterns.

Denver vs Oklahoma City Opening Odds

DEN Moneyline: +416
OKC Moneyline: -568
DEN Spread: +11
OKC Spread: -11.0
Over/Under: 229.5

Denver vs Oklahoma City Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 21, 2025 7:30PM EDT
Houston Rockets
Oklahoma City Thunder
10/21/25 7:30PM
Rockets
Thunder
+270
-340
+8 (-110)
-8 (-110)
O 225.5 (-110)
U 225.5 (-110)
Oct 21, 2025 10:00PM EDT
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers
10/21/25 10PM
Warriors
Lakers
+130
-155
+3.5 (-110)
-3.5 (-110)
O 225.5 (-110)
U 225.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Brooklyn Nets
Charlotte Hornets
10/22/25 7:10PM
Nets
Hornets
+136
-162
+3.5 (-110)
-3.5 (-110)
O 221 (-110)
U 221 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Cleveland Cavaliers
New York Knicks
10/22/25 7:10PM
Cavaliers
Knicks
+145
-175
+4 (-110)
-4 (-110)
O 228 (-110)
U 228 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Miami Heat
Orlando Magic
10/22/25 7:10PM
Heat
Magic
+280
-355
+8.5 (-110)
-8.5 (-110)
O 210.5 (-110)
U 210.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Philadelphia 76ers
Boston Celtics
10/22/25 7:40PM
76ers
Celtics
+105
-125
+2 (-110)
-2 (-110)
O 224 (-110)
U 224 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Toronto Raptors
Atlanta Hawks
10/22/25 7:40PM
Raptors
Hawks
+195
-238
+6 (-110)
-6 (-110)
O 233.5 (-110)
U 233.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Washington Wizards
Milwaukee Bucks
10/22/25 8:10PM
Wizards
Bucks
+285
-360
+8.5 (-110)
-8.5 (-110)
O 226 (-110)
U 226 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Detroit Pistons
Chicago Bulls
10/22/25 8:10PM
Pistons
Bulls
-130
+110
-2 (-110)
+2 (-110)
O 233.5 (-110)
U 233.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
New Orleans Pelicans
Memphis Grizzlies
10/22/25 8:10PM
Pelicans
Grizzlies
+150
-180
+4.5 (-110)
-4.5 (-110)
O 234 (-110)
U 234 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 9:10PM EDT
Los Angeles Clippers
Utah Jazz
10/22/25 9:10PM
Clippers
Jazz
-325
+260
-8 (-110)
+8 (-110)
O 227.5 (-110)
U 227.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 9:40PM EDT
San Antonio Spurs
Dallas Mavericks
10/22/25 9:40PM
Spurs
Mavericks
-110
-110
-1 (-105)
+1 (-115)
O 228.5 (-110)
U 228.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Sacramento Kings
Phoenix Suns
10/22/25 10:10PM
Kings
Suns
-105
-115
+1 (-110)
-1 (-110)
O 229 (-110)
U 229 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Minnesota Timberwolves
Portland Trail Blazers
10/22/25 10:10PM
Timberwolves
Trail Blazers
-142
+120
-2.5 (-110)
+2.5 (-110)
O 220 (-110)
U 220 (-110)
Oct 23, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Oklahoma City Thunder
Indiana Pacers
10/23/25 7:40PM
Thunder
Pacers
-310
+250
-7.5 (-110)
+7.5 (-110)
O 226.5 (-110)
U 226.5 (-110)
Oct 23, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Denver Nuggets
Golden State Warriors
10/23/25 10:10PM
Nuggets
Warriors
-108
-112
+1 (-115)
-1 (-105)
O 232.5 (-110)
U 232.5 (-110)

NBA Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder on May 07, 2025 at Paycom Center.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NBA odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
IND@OKC PASCAL SIAKAM OVER 2.5 PERSONAL FOULS 54.20% 4 WIN
IND@OKC IND +10 54.00% 3 WIN
IND@OKC BENNEDICT MATHURIN OVER 2.5 FREE THROW ATT 54.90% 4 WIN
NY@IND MYLES TURNER OVER 6 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 54.40% 4 LOSS
IND@NY IND +5 55.60% 5 LOSS
NY@IND JALEN BRUNSON UNDER 22 FIELD GOAL ATT 54.70% 4 WIN
OKC@MIN RUDY GOBERT OVER 1.5 FREE THROWS MADE 54.00% 4 WIN
OKC@MIN OKC -2.5 56.70% 6 LOSS
NY@IND KARL ANTHONY TOWNS OVER 32.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS 54.00% 4 WIN
OKC@MIN NAZ REID OVER 9.0 FIELD GOAL ATT 54.60% 4 LOSS
IND@NY MYLES TURNER OVER 5 MADE FIELD GOALS 53.60% 3 WIN
IND@NY NY -5.5 55.00% 4 LOSS
MIN@OKC ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN UNDER 7.5 REBOUNDS 53.00% 3 LOSS
MIN@OKC MIN +7.5 54.70% 4 LOSS
IND@NY TYRESE HALIBURTON ASSTS - UNDER 8.5 54.10% 4 LOSS
IND@NY IND +4.5 54.80% 4 WIN
MIN@OKC ALEX CARUSO UNDER 2.5 ASSTS 54.10% 4 WIN
DEN@OKC MICHAEL PORTER UNDER 7.5 REBS + AST 54.80% 4 WIN
BOS@NY NY -2.5 55.60% 5 WIN
GS@MIN DONTE DIVINCENZO OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 54.80% 4 LOSS
GS@MIN GS +10.5 54.70% 4 LOSS
DEN@OKC NIKOLA JOKIC UNDER 22.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 54.00% 4 WIN
MIN@GS JIMMY BUTLER UNDER 33.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS 54.50% 4 WIN
BOS@NY BOS -5.5 54.70% 4 WIN
OKC@DEN OKC -5 55.70% 5 LOSS
DEN@OKC SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER UNDER 12.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 54.20% 4 WIN
IND@CLE IND +8 54.00% 3 WIN
GS@MIN ANTHONY EDWARDS UNDER 40.5 PTS+REB+AST 54.00% 4 WIN
GS@MIN MIN -6.5 54.40% 4 LOSS
DEN@OKC NIKOLA JOKIC UNDER 36.5 POINTS + ASSTS 53.20% 3 LOSS
IND@CLE IND +8.5 55.70% 5 WIN
HOU@GS GS -5 53.70% 3 LOSS
HOU@GS BRANDIN PODZIEMSKI UNDER 5.5 REBOUNDS 54.10% 4 LOSS
DEN@LAC MICHAEL PORTER UNDER 7.5 REBS + AST 53.20% 3 WIN
DEN@LAC UNDER 212.5 54.00% 3 LOSS
MIN@LAL MIN +6 53.80% 3 WIN
MIN@LAL NAZ REID OVER 1.5 ASSTS 54.80% 4 WIN
LAC@DEN IVICA ZUBAC OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 53.50% 3 LOSS
DET@NY DET +5.5 53.90% 3 WIN
CLE@MIA EVAN MOBLEY UNDER 29.5 PTS+REB+AST 53.90% 3 WIN
BOS@ORL KRISTAPS PORZINGIS UNDER 8.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 53.10% 3 WIN
HOU@GS GS -3 53.70% 3 WIN
HOU@GS JALEN GREEN OVER 2.5 TURNOVERS 54.40% 4 LOSS
LAL@MIN LEBRON JAMES UNDER 31.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS 54.50% 4 LOSS
BOS@ORL BOS -3.5 54.70% 4 LOSS
DEN@LAC BOGDAN BOGDANOVIC OVER 2.5 THREE POINTERS ATTEMPTED 53.60% 3 LOSS
GS@HOU JALEN GREEN UNDER 3.5 FREE THROWS MADE 54.40% 4 LOSS
ORL@BOS ORL +10.5 54.70% 4 WIN
MEM@OKC ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN OVER 19.5 PTS + REB 53.80% 3 LOSS
MEM@OKC OKC -14.5 54.80% 4 WIN
LAC@DEN IVICA ZUBAC OVER 3.5 OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS 53.30% 3 LOSS