Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NBA Lines & Props (May 07)

Updated: 2025-05-05T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, in Game 2 of their Western Conference Semifinals series. The Thunder lead the series 1–0 after a commanding Game 1 victory.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 07, 2025

Start Time: 9:30 PM EST​

Venue: Paycom Center​

Thunder Record: (68-14)

Nuggets Record: (50-32)

OPENING ODDS

DEN Moneyline: +416

OKC Moneyline: -568

DEN Spread: +11

OKC Spread: -11.0

Over/Under: 229.5

DEN
Betting Trends

  • The Denver Nuggets have a 38–45 record against the spread (ATS) this season.

OKC
Betting Trends

  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 56–28–2 record against the spread (ATS) this season.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oklahoma City’s last 9 games against Denver.

DEN vs. OKC
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: M. Porter over 15.5 PTS+REB+AST.

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Denver vs Oklahoma City Prediction & Odds:
Free NBA Betting Insights for 5/7/25

The Western Conference Semifinals continue on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, with Game 2 between the Denver Nuggets and the Oklahoma City Thunder, as the league’s top-seeded Thunder aim to extend their 1–0 series lead at home. Oklahoma City, who finished the regular season with a dominant 68–14 record, demonstrated in Game 1 why they’ve been the NBA’s most complete team this year, holding Denver to under 100 points and showcasing their elite defense that has carried over into the postseason. Led by MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder are thriving with a blend of youthful energy, length, switchable defenders, and an offense that flows through multiple creators, allowing them to adapt to different matchups fluidly. Their defense, which owns the league’s best postseason rating so far at 99.4, has been particularly stifling against Denver, with the total going UNDER in seven of the last nine meetings between these two clubs. Their home-court advantage has been pronounced, with a 9–1 record against the spread in their last 10 home games, and they’ve often buried opponents early by controlling tempo and getting out in transition off turnovers. Denver, meanwhile, comes in looking to regroup after a draining seven-game series win over the Clippers and a flat Game 1 performance in which fatigue may have played a role, though superstar center Nikola Jokić’s light 32-minute workload in Game 7 could help mitigate wear and tear.

The Nuggets, who finished the regular season 50–32 and remain the reigning NBA champions, are seeking to reset mentally and tactically in Game 2, knowing they cannot afford to return to Denver in an 0–2 hole. Their 38–45 record against the spread this season reflects struggles with consistency, especially on the road, and they’ll need significantly improved shot-making from Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. to stretch Oklahoma City’s disciplined defense and open up the floor for Jokić to operate. The key for Denver will be limiting Oklahoma City’s fast breaks and generating quality looks early in the shot clock before the Thunder’s set defense takes shape. For OKC, it’s about staying the course—dictating pace, keeping their rotations crisp, and letting SGA go to work in isolation or pick-and-roll against Denver’s slower bigs. The battle in the paint will be crucial; while Jokić gives Denver a technical edge on offense, Chet Holmgren’s rim protection and weakside help have disrupted plenty of interior touches, and his floor spacing offensively forces Denver’s bigs to guard the perimeter—something they’re less comfortable doing. If the Thunder can continue to control the glass, limit turnovers, and shoot efficiently from beyond the arc, they’ll be in excellent position to take a commanding lead in the series. On the flip side, Denver has the experience and talent to respond—but it will require their best game yet to wrest control away from a Thunder team that looks increasingly poised and championship-ready. Game 2 promises to be a crucial litmus test for both teams: for the Nuggets, a chance to remind everyone why they’re defending champs; for the Thunder, another step in what’s beginning to look like a deep postseason run built on youth, defense, and sheer will.

Denver Nuggets NBA Preview

The Denver Nuggets head into Game 2 of their Western Conference Semifinal series against the Oklahoma City Thunder facing both scoreboard pressure and the physical toll of a grueling playoff stretch. Fresh off a taxing seven-game series win over the Clippers, the Nuggets stumbled out of the gate in Game 1, falling short against a well-rested and disciplined Thunder squad that held them to under 100 points. Despite being the defending champions and having a 50–32 regular-season record, Denver has struggled with consistency, as reflected in their 38–45 record against the spread this year. At the heart of Denver’s hopes is two-time MVP Nikola Jokić, who continues to be the fulcrum of their offense, effortlessly orchestrating possessions with his passing, footwork, and court vision. While he logged just 32 minutes in Game 7 against L.A., his impact remains massive—but he’ll need more help if the Nuggets are going to even this series. Jamal Murray’s shot selection and ability to create off the dribble are essential to keeping Oklahoma City’s defense honest, and Michael Porter Jr. must find his rhythm from beyond the arc to stretch the floor. Denver’s biggest challenge remains overcoming Oklahoma City’s athletic, switch-heavy defense, which has effectively disrupted their rhythm in pick-and-roll actions and transition.

Defensively, Denver must adjust to the Thunder’s quick pace and versatile ball handlers, particularly Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, whose midrange game and ability to penetrate off switches have carved up the Nuggets in previous meetings. Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will be tasked with the tough defensive assignments, needing to chase shooters and stay in front of OKC’s guards without fouling. The Nuggets’ interior defense will also need to contend with Chet Holmgren’s floor spacing and rim running, which present unique challenges that few traditional bigs can handle comfortably. Coach Michael Malone must dig deeper into his bench and trust key role players like Christian Braun and Reggie Jackson to provide energy and scoring relief while managing minutes for starters who logged heavy playoff workloads. If Denver is to flip the series narrative, Game 2 has to include stronger starts, fewer defensive breakdowns, and far better execution in late-clock situations, where OKC’s defense thrives. The defending champs are no strangers to adversity and still possess the leadership and championship mettle to respond, but they’ll need a near-flawless effort in all phases to overcome a Thunder team that is brimming with confidence, cohesion, and momentum. For the Nuggets, this isn’t just about avoiding an 0–2 deficit—it’s about restoring identity, rhythm, and belief that they still have the resolve and versatility to defend their title.

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, in Game 2 of their Western Conference Semifinals series. The Thunder lead the series 1–0 after a commanding Game 1 victory. Denver vs Oklahoma City AI Prediction: Free NBA Betting Insights for May 07. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder enter Game 2 of their Western Conference Semifinals matchup against the Denver Nuggets carrying not only a 1–0 series lead but the weight of being this year’s most complete and consistent team, following a 68–14 regular-season campaign and a dominant playoff run thus far. Their Game 1 victory was a statement of intent—an emphatic, defense-first performance that suffocated Denver’s offense and showcased why OKC has emerged as a true title favorite in 2025. At the heart of their success is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who continues to play at an MVP-caliber level with his poised shot creation, unshakable midrange efficiency, and command over tempo; he has become the pulse of the Thunder, keeping them grounded in big moments while punishing defenses from every level of the floor. Surrounding him is a core of young, highly versatile players including Jalen Williams, Josh Giddey, and rookie sensation Chet Holmgren, whose rim protection, length, and mobility have transformed OKC into the top-rated playoff defense with a stunning 99.4 defensive rating. That defensive prowess has made it nearly impossible for opponents to find comfort—particularly bigs like Nikola Jokić, who faced constant disruption in Game 1 thanks to Holmgren’s anticipation and the Thunder’s aggressive help-and-recover schemes. Oklahoma City has also benefited from elite perimeter defense, with Lu Dort and Cason Wallace applying relentless pressure on opposing guards, limiting dribble penetration and forcing low-efficiency looks deep in the shot clock.

Offensively, OKC continues to play unselfish, fluid basketball, spacing the floor with three-point shooting, cutting off the ball with precision, and executing in transition thanks to their youth and athleticism. Their ability to score without relying solely on isolation sets has made them hard to scheme against, and their bench—led by Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins—has added valuable scoring punch and defensive hustle when called upon. At home, the Thunder have been nearly unbeatable, going 9–1 against the spread in their last ten games at Paycom Center, and feeding off the energy of a crowd that has quickly grown accustomed to high-stakes basketball. Head coach Mark Daigneault deserves immense credit for orchestrating OKC’s turnaround from rebuilding project to juggernaut, instilling discipline, role clarity, and defensive accountability across a deep, flexible roster. As they prepare for Game 2, the Thunder will aim to replicate their Game 1 formula—dictating pace, crowding Jokić with bodies, and limiting second-chance points—while continuing to let SGA control the flow and attacking mismatches with calculated aggression. For Oklahoma City, this isn’t just about taking a 2–0 series lead—it’s about maintaining their aura of dominance, reinforcing their identity, and showing that their regular-season brilliance can carry through the crucible of the postseason. With every win, they inch closer to proving that youth and experience can coexist when matched with intelligence, grit, and a belief that their time is now.

Denver vs. Oklahoma City Prop Picks (AI)

Remi is pouring through loads of datapoints on each team. In fact, anytime the Nuggets and Thunder play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Paycom Center in May rarely follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: M. Porter over 15.5 PTS+REB+AST.

Denver vs. Oklahoma City Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over mountains of data from every angle between the Nuggets and Thunder and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.

Interestingly enough, the data has been most fixated on the linear correlation of factor knucklehead sportsbettors tend to put on Oklahoma City’s strength factors between a Nuggets team going up against a possibly strong Thunder team. It appears the true game analytics appear to reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NBA AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Denver vs Oklahoma City picks, computer picks Nuggets vs Thunder, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
NBA 11/8 POR@MIA UNLOCK THIS PICK 7 VAULT v3 Locked VAULT v3
NBA 11/8 LAL@ATL UNLOCK THIS PICK 6 VAULT v2 Locked VAULT v2
NBA 11/8 IND@DEN UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL
NBA 11/8 CHI@CLE UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NBA schedule.

Nuggets Betting Trends

The Denver Nuggets have a 38–45 record against the spread (ATS) this season.

Thunder Betting Trends

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 56–28–2 record against the spread (ATS) this season.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Matchup Trends

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oklahoma City’s last 9 games against Denver.

Denver vs. Oklahoma City Game Info

Denver vs Oklahoma City starts on May 07, 2025 at 9:30 PM EST.

Spread: Oklahoma City -11.0
Moneyline: Denver +416, Oklahoma City -568
Over/Under: 229.5

Denver: (50-32)  |  Oklahoma City: (68-14)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: M. Porter over 15.5 PTS+REB+AST.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oklahoma City’s last 9 games against Denver.

DEN trend: The Denver Nuggets have a 38–45 record against the spread (ATS) this season.

OKC trend: The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 56–28–2 record against the spread (ATS) this season.

See our latest NBA picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Denver vs. Oklahoma City Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of data on each player. In fact, anytime the Denver vs Oklahoma City trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude almost always follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Denver vs Oklahoma City Opening Odds

DEN Moneyline: +416
OKC Moneyline: -568
DEN Spread: +11
OKC Spread: -11.0
Over/Under: 229.5

Denver vs Oklahoma City Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Nov 9, 2025 3:30PM EST
Houston Rockets
Milwaukee Bucks
11/9/25 3:30PM
Rockets
Bucks
-175
+145
-4.5 (-105)
+4.5 (-115)
O 232.5 (-105)
U 232.5 (-115)
Nov 9, 2025 6:00PM EST
Brooklyn Nets
New York Knicks
11/9/25 6PM
Nets
Knicks
+800
-1400
+15.5 (-110)
-15.5 (-110)
O 228.5 (-110)
U 228.5 (-110)
Nov 9, 2025 6:10PM EST
Oklahoma City Thunder
Memphis Grizzlies
11/9/25 6:10PM
Thunder
Grizzlies
-550
+400
-10.5 (-110)
+10.5 (-110)
O 234.5 (-105)
U 234.5 (-115)
Nov 9, 2025 6:10PM EST
Boston Celtics
Orlando Magic
11/9/25 6:10PM
Celtics
Magic
+135
-160
+3.5 (-115)
-3.5 (-105)
O 226.5 (-110)
U 226.5 (-110)
Nov 9, 2025 7:30PM EST
Detroit Pistons
Philadelphia 76ers
11/9/25 7:30PM
Pistons
76ers
-160
+135
-3.5 (-110)
+3.5 (-110)
O 232.5 (-110)
U 232.5 (-110)
Nov 9, 2025 8:40PM EST
Indiana Pacers
Golden State Warriors
11/9/25 8:40PM
Pacers
Warriors
+525
-750
+12.5 (-105)
-12.5 (-115)
O 227.5 (-105)
U 227.5 (-115)
Nov 9, 2025 9:10PM EST
Minnesota Timberwolves
Sacramento Kings
11/9/25 9:10PM
Timberwolves
Kings
-220
+180
-5.5 (-105)
+5.5 (-115)
O 235.5 (-105)
U 235.5 (-115)
Dec 25, 2025 12:00PM EST
Cleveland Cavaliers
New York Knicks
12/25/25 12PM
Cavaliers
Knicks
+117
-143
+2.5 (-113)
-2.5 (-113)
O 229.5 (-113)
U 229.5 (-113)
Dec 25, 2025 5:00PM EST
Dallas Mavericks
Golden State Warriors
12/25/25 5PM
Mavericks
Warriors
+150
-195
+4.5 (-112)
-4.5 (-114)
O 227 (-115)
U 227 (-110)
Dec 25, 2025 10:30PM EST
Minnesota Timberwolves
Denver Nuggets
12/25/25 10:30PM
Timberwolves
Nuggets
+175
-220
+5 (-109)
-5 (-117)
O 229.5 (-112)
U 229.5 (-114)

NBA Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder on May 07, 2025 at Paycom Center.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NBA odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
DAL@MEM MEM -4 56.3% 6 WIN
TOR@ATL TOR +118 48.0% 3 WIN
CHA@MIA OVER 235.5 54.3% 3 LOSS
LAC@PHX PHX -135 58.9% 7 WIN
PHI@CLE PHI +10.5 53.3% 3 LOSS
MIA@DEN MIA +9.5 53.7% 3 LOSS
OKC@POR POR +4.5 52.9% 3 WIN
HOU@MEM MEM +8.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
UTA@DET UTA +10 56.8% 6 LOSS
NO@DAL TREY MURPHY III OVER 25.5 PTS & REB 55.5% 5 LOSS
ORL@ATL ORL -3.5 56.5% 6 LOSS
MIL@TOR MIL +3.5 56.5% 4 LOSS
PHX@GS STEPH CURRY UNDER 4.5 THREE PTRS MADE 53.3% 3 LOSS
OKC@LAC JAMES HARDEN OVER 12.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAL@POR POR -2.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
SA@PHX SA -5.5 56.6% 6 LOSS
ORL@WAS WAS +9 54.2% 4 LOSS
DAL@DET DAL +8 58.7% 8 LOSS
NY@CHI NY -4.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
BOS@PHI BOS +1.5 54.6% 4 WIN
TOR@CLE TOR +6 56.2% 6 WIN
DEN@POR JERAMI GRANT OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 56.6% 6 WIN
WAS@OKC WAS +15.5 54.9% 4 LOSS
NO@DEN DEN -12.5 53.6% 3 WIN
NO@DEN NIKOLA JOKIC OVER 26.5 POINTS 56.6% 6 LOSS
SAC@OKC SAC +10 54.7% 4 WIN
NY@MIL MIL +3 56.6% 6 WIN
LAC@GS GS +2.5 56.8% 6 WIN
LAC@GS BRANDIN PODZIEMSKI UNDER 1.5 THREE POINTERS MADE 55.5% 5 LOSS
CLE@DET DET +2.5 53.5% 3 LOSS
ORL@PHI ORL -5 54.7% 4 LOSS
OKC@DAL DAL +9 66.4% 6 WIN
BOS@NO NO +2 55.6% 5 LOSS
BKN@HOU BKN +16.5 57.0% 7 LOSS
BOS@NO TREY MURPHY III UNDER 25.5 PTS + REB 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@CLE MIL +6.5 56.1% 6 WIN
POR@LAC POR +8.5 56.5% 6 WIN
ATL@ORL ATL +5 54.6% 4 WIN
WAS@DAL WAS +10 55.3% 5 WIN
PHX@LAC IVICA ZUBAC OVER 6.5 MADE FIELD GOALS 55.5% 5 LOSS
OKC@IND IND +8 56.5% 6 WIN
CLE@NY CLE -116 55.0% 4 LOSS
LAC@UTA UTA +9.5 54.1% 4 WIN
WAS@MIL KYLE KUZMA OVER 1.5 ASSTS 55.5% 5 WIN
HOU@OKC HOU +6.5 54.8% 4 WIN
GS@LAL STEPHEN CURRY UNDER 2.5 TURNOVERS 54.4 4 WIN
IND@OKC SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER OVER 1.5 STEALS 54.90% 4 LOSS
IND@OKC JALEN WILLIAMS OVER 0.5 1Q REBOUNDS 55.70% 5 WIN
OKC@IND TJ MCCONNELL UNDER 7.5 TWO POINT ATT 55.70% 5 LOSS
IND@OKC CHET HOLMGREN OVER 1.5 SHOTS BLOCKED 53.40% 3 WIN
OKC@IND TJ MCCONNELL OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 53.00% 3 LOSS