Warriors vs. Rockets
Prediction, Odds & Props
May 04 | NBA AI Picks
Updated: 2025-05-02T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets will face off in a decisive Game 7 of their first-round playoff series on Sunday, May 4, 2025, at the Toyota Center in Houston. The Warriors, once leading the series 3-1, now confront a resurgent Rockets team that has forced a winner-take-all scenario.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: May 04, 2025
Start Time: 8:30 PM EST​
Venue: Toyota Center​
Rockets Record: (52-30)
Warriors Record: (48-34)
OPENING ODDS
GS Moneyline: +119
HOU Moneyline: -141
GS Spread: +2.5
HOU Spread: -2.5
Over/Under: 205
GS
Betting Trends
- The Warriors have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season, holding a 29-52-1 record. In their last 10 games, they have covered the spread in only 4 contests.
HOU
Betting Trends
- The Rockets boast a strong ATS performance with a 56-28-2 record this season. At home, they have been particularly effective, covering the spread in 73.2% of games when favored by -173 or more.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- In their last five head-to-head matchups, the Rockets have covered the spread in four games. Additionally, the total has gone under in three of those five games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring affairs.
GS vs. HOU
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: S. Curry over 36.5 PTS+REB+AST.
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Golden State vs Houston Prediction & Odds:
Free NBA Betting Insights for 5/4/25
Meanwhile, the Rockets have executed with composure, controlling the glass and winning the battle in the paint, an area Golden State usually thrives in with their quick rotation defense and help-side timing. The key to Game 7 may rest on whether Curry can deliver one of his signature performances and whether Golden State can get the necessary contributions from the likes of Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga to match Houston’s youth and hustle. On the flip side, Houston will need to remain aggressive and disciplined, sticking to the blueprint that earned them back-to-back wins and maximizing their physical advantages. Game 7 scenarios typically come down to nerves, execution, and who controls the tempo—if Golden State can dictate pace and get into their motion offense early, they’ll have a chance to recapture control. But if Houston can grind the game down, attack the boards, and generate easy looks through their defense, they’re in an excellent position to complete the comeback. With the Rockets holding the edge in recent head-to-head ATS matchups and the crowd at Toyota Center ready to erupt, this Game 7 promises high drama, legacy implications, and the potential for a breakout performance that could define the postseason.
As we look ahead to Game 7, take a look at how the sophomores prepped for the Playoffs.@ModeloUSA || Sophomores pic.twitter.com/31ID0aMPrQ
— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) May 4, 2025
Golden State Warriors NBA Preview
The Golden State Warriors head into Game 7 of this first-round series with their backs against the wall and a painful sense of déjà vu, having allowed a commanding 3-1 series lead to slip through their fingers. What began as a dominant start, fueled by the scoring brilliance of Stephen Curry and strong complementary efforts from Jimmy Butler, has devolved into a cautionary tale of missed opportunities, stagnant offense, and lapses in intensity. Curry, still the engine of Golden State’s attack, has averaged over 27 points per game in the series, but he’s been left to shoulder too much of the load as the Warriors’ supporting cast has gone cold. Klay Thompson has struggled with consistency, hitting big shots in some quarters only to vanish in others, and Draymond Green’s impact has been limited by Houston’s physical defense, with his offensive contributions dipping well below his career playoff averages. Golden State’s bench, once a key strength, has become a liability as players like Gary Payton II, Moses Moody, and Kevon Looney have failed to swing momentum with their usual defensive hustle or opportunistic scoring. Defensively, the Warriors are no longer the imposing unit that once dictated playoff series—Houston has repeatedly exposed mismatches, especially in the post with Alperen Sengun and on the glass with Steven Adams. Coach Steve Kerr has tried multiple lineup adjustments, including more minutes for Jonathan Kuminga to inject athleticism and rebounding, but the team’s lack of execution down the stretch has been the biggest concern.
Turnovers have plagued Golden State in their recent losses, and their inability to contain Houston in transition has led to backbreaking runs that have flipped games in the Rockets’ favor. The Warriors will need to return to the disciplined, ball-sharing, and off-ball cutting style that has long defined their dynasty, and most importantly, they must find ways to create open looks for Curry without having him work through double teams and blitzes on every possession. This game is not just about tactics—it’s a test of mental toughness, of championship DNA, and of whether Golden State can rediscover the fire that’s defined their playoff identity for nearly a decade. Houston has rattled them with youth, physicality, and crowd energy, and if the Warriors want to avoid a collapse that could signal the end of their competitive window, they’ll need to be the aggressors from the opening tip. That means smarter switches, quicker rotations, crashing the boards, and trusting in the full depth of their roster to rise to the moment. Game 7s are where legends shine and legacies are tested, and for a veteran-laden team like Golden State, this may be the ultimate referendum on their staying power in an evolving NBA landscape. If they’re to survive and advance, it starts with a complete team performance—not just from Curry, but from every player donning the blue and gold.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Houston Rockets NBA Preview
The Houston Rockets enter Game 7 on their home court with confidence, grit, and a surge of momentum that has completely flipped the narrative of this series. After falling behind 3-1, the young Rockets have stormed back with purpose, using physical defense, timely shooting, and disciplined execution to tie the series and force this decisive game in front of a roaring Toyota Center crowd. Head coach Ime Udoka deserves immense credit for keeping his team locked in and composed, drawing on his playoff experience to engineer a remarkable turnaround built on defensive intensity and smart adjustments. Fred VanVleet, the team’s seasoned floor general, has provided crucial leadership and clutch performances, guiding the team through pressure moments and consistently outmaneuvering Golden State’s guards in the half court. His ability to manage tempo, make tough shots, and play dogged on-ball defense has stabilized the Rockets through the storm of playoff pressure. Equally vital has been the presence of Steven Adams, whose rebounding, screening, and rim protection have made life difficult for Golden State’s slashers and limited their second-chance opportunities. Houston’s frontcourt has thoroughly outmuscled the Warriors over the past two games, with Alperen Sengun emerging as a dynamic offensive force capable of scoring in the post, finding cutters, and stretching defenders with his high-IQ playmaking. Jalen Green has elevated his game under the spotlight, using his athleticism to push the pace and attack the rim, while Jabari Smith Jr. has knocked down timely jumpers and provided switchable defense on the perimeter.
The Rockets’ success has hinged on their ability to control the glass, limit turnovers, and keep the Warriors out of rhythm with aggressive switching and physical closeouts. At home, where they’ve thrived all season, they’ve fed off the energy of their fans, turning defense into offense and forcing Golden State into rushed possessions and contested threes. The bench has also stepped up, with players like Dillon Brooks and Amen Thompson making valuable contributions on both ends of the court. For Game 7, Houston’s formula is clear: continue dictating the physical tone, protect the paint, and push in transition whenever Golden State’s defense fails to set. They must also continue to neutralize Draymond Green’s playmaking and prevent Steph Curry from gaining comfort off the ball, where he’s most dangerous. The Rockets have already beaten the odds by erasing a 3-1 deficit, but they’re not satisfied with just forcing Game 7—they believe they can win it, and the home crowd will be behind them every step of the way. This young team has matured quickly and shown they can respond to adversity; now, with the stakes at their highest, they have the chance to deliver a franchise-defining win and send a clear message that the Rockets are no longer rebuilding—they’ve arrived.
It’s time to protect our house.
— Houston Rockets (@HoustonRockets) May 3, 2025
Wear RED & be LOUD, H-town ‼️ pic.twitter.com/ytNsyZ2mzC
Golden State vs. Houston Prop Picks (AI)
Golden State vs. Houston Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over exorbitant amounts of data from every facet between the Warriors and Rockets and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.
The Algorithm has been most fixated on the trending emphasis human bettors tend to put on Golden State’s strength factors between a Warriors team going up against a possibly healthy Rockets team. We’ve found the true game analytics appear to reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line in particular.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NBA AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Golden State vs Houston picks, computer picks Warriors vs Rockets, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NBA schedule.
Warriors Betting Trends
The Warriors have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season, holding a 29-52-1 record. In their last 10 games, they have covered the spread in only 4 contests.
Rockets Betting Trends
The Rockets boast a strong ATS performance with a 56-28-2 record this season. At home, they have been particularly effective, covering the spread in 73.2% of games when favored by -173 or more.
Warriors vs. Rockets Matchup Trends
In their last five head-to-head matchups, the Rockets have covered the spread in four games. Additionally, the total has gone under in three of those five games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring affairs.
Golden State vs. Houston Game Info
What time does Golden State vs Houston start on May 04, 2025?
Golden State vs Houston starts on May 04, 2025 at 8:30 PM EST.
Where is Golden State vs Houston being played?
Venue: Toyota Center.
What are the opening odds for Golden State vs Houston?
Spread: Houston -2.5
Moneyline: Golden State +119, Houston -141
Over/Under: 205
What are the records for Golden State vs Houston?
Golden State: (48-34) Â |Â Houston: (52-30)
What is the AI best bet for Golden State vs Houston?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: S. Curry over 36.5 PTS+REB+AST.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are Golden State vs Houston trending bets?
In their last five head-to-head matchups, the Rockets have covered the spread in four games. Additionally, the total has gone under in three of those five games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring affairs.
What are Golden State trending bets?
GS trend: The Warriors have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season, holding a 29-52-1 record. In their last 10 games, they have covered the spread in only 4 contests.
What are Houston trending bets?
HOU trend: The Rockets boast a strong ATS performance with a 56-28-2 record this season. At home, they have been particularly effective, covering the spread in 73.2% of games when favored by -173 or more.
Where can I find AI Picks for Golden State vs Houston?
See our latest NBA picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Golden State vs. Houston Odds
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of data points on each team. In fact, anytime the Golden State vs Houston trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance almost always follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Golden State vs Houston Opening Odds
GS Moneyline:
+119 HOU Moneyline: -141
GS Spread: +2.5
HOU Spread: -2.5
Over/Under: 205
Golden State vs Houston Live Odds
Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 21, 2025 7:30PM EDT
Houston Rockets
Oklahoma City Thunder
10/21/25 7:30PM
Rockets
Thunder
|
–
–
|
+260
-350
|
+6.5 (+120)
-6.5 (-150)
|
O 225.5 (-110)
U 225.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 21, 2025 10:00PM EDT
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers
10/21/25 10PM
Warriors
Lakers
|
–
–
|
+145
-175
|
+3.5 (+100)
-3.5 (-120)
|
O 224.5 (-120)
U 224.5 (+100)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Brooklyn Nets
Charlotte Hornets
10/22/25 7:10PM
Nets
Hornets
|
–
–
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+136
-162
|
+3.5 (-110)
-3.5 (-110)
|
O 221 (-110)
U 221 (-110)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Cleveland Cavaliers
New York Knicks
10/22/25 7:10PM
Cavaliers
Knicks
|
–
–
|
+145
-175
|
+3.5 (+100)
-3.5 (-120)
|
O 229.5 (+105)
U 229.5 (-125)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Miami Heat
Orlando Magic
10/22/25 7:10PM
Heat
Magic
|
–
–
|
+280
-355
|
+8.5 (-110)
-8.5 (-110)
|
O 210.5 (-110)
U 210.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Philadelphia 76ers
Boston Celtics
10/22/25 7:40PM
76ers
Celtics
|
–
–
|
+105
-125
|
+2 (-110)
-2 (-110)
|
O 224 (-110)
U 224 (-110)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Toronto Raptors
Atlanta Hawks
10/22/25 7:40PM
Raptors
Hawks
|
–
–
|
+195
-238
|
+6 (-110)
-6 (-110)
|
O 233.5 (-110)
U 233.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Washington Wizards
Milwaukee Bucks
10/22/25 8:10PM
Wizards
Bucks
|
–
–
|
+285
-360
|
+8.5 (-110)
-8.5 (-110)
|
O 226 (-110)
U 226 (-110)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Detroit Pistons
Chicago Bulls
10/22/25 8:10PM
Pistons
Bulls
|
–
–
|
-130
+110
|
-2 (-110)
+2 (-110)
|
O 233.5 (-110)
U 233.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
New Orleans Pelicans
Memphis Grizzlies
10/22/25 8:10PM
Pelicans
Grizzlies
|
–
–
|
+150
-180
|
+4.5 (-110)
-4.5 (-110)
|
O 234 (-110)
U 234 (-110)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 9:10PM EDT
Los Angeles Clippers
Utah Jazz
10/22/25 9:10PM
Clippers
Jazz
|
–
–
|
-325
+260
|
-8 (-110)
+8 (-110)
|
O 227.5 (-110)
U 227.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 9:40PM EDT
San Antonio Spurs
Dallas Mavericks
10/22/25 9:40PM
Spurs
Mavericks
|
–
–
|
-110
-110
|
-1 (-105)
+1 (-115)
|
O 226.5 (-130)
U 226.5 (+105)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Sacramento Kings
Phoenix Suns
10/22/25 10:10PM
Kings
Suns
|
–
–
|
-105
-115
|
+1 (-110)
-1 (-110)
|
O 229 (-110)
U 229 (-110)
|
|
Oct 22, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Minnesota Timberwolves
Portland Trail Blazers
10/22/25 10:10PM
Timberwolves
Trail Blazers
|
–
–
|
-142
+120
|
-2.5 (-110)
+2.5 (-110)
|
O 221 (-110)
U 221 (-110)
|
|
Oct 23, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Oklahoma City Thunder
Indiana Pacers
10/23/25 7:40PM
Thunder
Pacers
|
–
–
|
-325
+250
|
-7.5 (-110)
+7.5 (-110)
|
O 226.5 (-110)
U 226.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 23, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Denver Nuggets
Golden State Warriors
10/23/25 10:10PM
Nuggets
Warriors
|
–
–
|
-110
-110
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+1 (-110)
-1 (-110)
|
O 232.5 (-110)
U 232.5 (-110)
|
NBA Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets on May 04, 2025 at Toyota Center.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NBA odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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   LEAN |    %WIN |    UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
IND@OKC | PASCAL SIAKAM OVER 2.5 PERSONAL FOULS | 54.20% | 4 | WIN |
IND@OKC | IND +10 | 54.00% | 3 | WIN |
IND@OKC | BENNEDICT MATHURIN OVER 2.5 FREE THROW ATT | 54.90% | 4 | WIN |
NY@IND | MYLES TURNER OVER 6 REBOUNDS + ASSTS | 54.40% | 4 | LOSS |
IND@NY | IND +5 | 55.60% | 5 | LOSS |
NY@IND | JALEN BRUNSON UNDER 22 FIELD GOAL ATT | 54.70% | 4 | WIN |
OKC@MIN | RUDY GOBERT OVER 1.5 FREE THROWS MADE | 54.00% | 4 | WIN |
OKC@MIN | OKC -2.5 | 56.70% | 6 | LOSS |
NY@IND | KARL ANTHONY TOWNS OVER 32.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS | 54.00% | 4 | WIN |
OKC@MIN | NAZ REID OVER 9.0 FIELD GOAL ATT | 54.60% | 4 | LOSS |
IND@NY | MYLES TURNER OVER 5 MADE FIELD GOALS | 53.60% | 3 | WIN |
IND@NY | NY -5.5 | 55.00% | 4 | LOSS |
MIN@OKC | ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN UNDER 7.5 REBOUNDS | 53.00% | 3 | LOSS |
MIN@OKC | MIN +7.5 | 54.70% | 4 | LOSS |
IND@NY | TYRESE HALIBURTON ASSTS - UNDER 8.5 | 54.10% | 4 | LOSS |
IND@NY | IND +4.5 | 54.80% | 4 | WIN |
MIN@OKC | ALEX CARUSO UNDER 2.5 ASSTS | 54.10% | 4 | WIN |
DEN@OKC | MICHAEL PORTER UNDER 7.5 REBS + AST | 54.80% | 4 | WIN |
BOS@NY | NY -2.5 | 55.60% | 5 | WIN |
GS@MIN | DONTE DIVINCENZO OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS | 54.80% | 4 | LOSS |
GS@MIN | GS +10.5 | 54.70% | 4 | LOSS |
DEN@OKC | NIKOLA JOKIC UNDER 22.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS | 54.00% | 4 | WIN |
MIN@GS | JIMMY BUTLER UNDER 33.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS | 54.50% | 4 | WIN |
BOS@NY | BOS -5.5 | 54.70% | 4 | WIN |
OKC@DEN | OKC -5 | 55.70% | 5 | LOSS |
DEN@OKC | SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER UNDER 12.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS | 54.20% | 4 | WIN |
IND@CLE | IND +8 | 54.00% | 3 | WIN |
GS@MIN | ANTHONY EDWARDS UNDER 40.5 PTS+REB+AST | 54.00% | 4 | WIN |
GS@MIN | MIN -6.5 | 54.40% | 4 | LOSS |
DEN@OKC | NIKOLA JOKIC UNDER 36.5 POINTS + ASSTS | 53.20% | 3 | LOSS |
IND@CLE | IND +8.5 | 55.70% | 5 | WIN |
HOU@GS | GS -5 | 53.70% | 3 | LOSS |
HOU@GS | BRANDIN PODZIEMSKI UNDER 5.5 REBOUNDS | 54.10% | 4 | LOSS |
DEN@LAC | MICHAEL PORTER UNDER 7.5 REBS + AST | 53.20% | 3 | WIN |
DEN@LAC | UNDER 212.5 | 54.00% | 3 | LOSS |
MIN@LAL | MIN +6 | 53.80% | 3 | WIN |
MIN@LAL | NAZ REID OVER 1.5 ASSTS | 54.80% | 4 | WIN |
LAC@DEN | IVICA ZUBAC OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS | 53.50% | 3 | LOSS |
DET@NY | DET +5.5 | 53.90% | 3 | WIN |
CLE@MIA | EVAN MOBLEY UNDER 29.5 PTS+REB+AST | 53.90% | 3 | WIN |
BOS@ORL | KRISTAPS PORZINGIS UNDER 8.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS | 53.10% | 3 | WIN |
HOU@GS | GS -3 | 53.70% | 3 | WIN |
HOU@GS | JALEN GREEN OVER 2.5 TURNOVERS | 54.40% | 4 | LOSS |
LAL@MIN | LEBRON JAMES UNDER 31.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS | 54.50% | 4 | LOSS |
BOS@ORL | BOS -3.5 | 54.70% | 4 | LOSS |
DEN@LAC | BOGDAN BOGDANOVIC OVER 2.5 THREE POINTERS ATTEMPTED | 53.60% | 3 | LOSS |
GS@HOU | JALEN GREEN UNDER 3.5 FREE THROWS MADE | 54.40% | 4 | LOSS |
ORL@BOS | ORL +10.5 | 54.70% | 4 | WIN |
MEM@OKC | ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN OVER 19.5 PTS + REB | 53.80% | 3 | LOSS |
MEM@OKC | OKC -14.5 | 54.80% | 4 | WIN |
LAC@DEN | IVICA ZUBAC OVER 3.5 OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS | 53.30% | 3 | LOSS |