The Memphis Grizzlies return to FedExForum tonight with the weight of postseason hopes on their shoulders and a chance to lock up the final Western Conference playoff berth in a high-stakes matchup against the surging Dallas Mavericks. While the Grizzlies enter as 6.5-point favorites and hold a 3–1 advantage in the regular-season series, including a 132–97 blowout win in their last meeting with Dallas, they now face significant adversity in the form of Ja Morant’s uncertain status after the All-Star point guard suffered a right ankle injury in their recent 121–116 Play-In loss to the Golden State Warriors. Morant, who averaged 23.2 points, 7.3 assists, and 4.1 rebounds this season, is the linchpin of Memphis’ offensive identity and late-game execution, and his availability—or lack thereof—could dramatically shape tonight’s game plan. If he’s unable to go or is significantly limited, the offensive and playmaking burden will fall largely on Jaren Jackson Jr., who has proven capable of stepping up when needed with his ability to score at all three levels, protect the rim, and serve as a vocal defensive anchor. The Grizzlies will also need meaningful contributions from depth pieces like Lamar Stevens, Marvin Bagley III, and Desmond Bane, whose perimeter shooting and slashing will be crucial in stretching the Mavericks’ defense and creating driving lanes. Memphis’ ability to defend the paint and rotate quickly on closeouts will be tested by a Dallas team that features the inside-out duo of Anthony Davis and Klay Thompson—both of whom were dominant in their last outing against Sacramento.

To contain Davis, the Grizzlies will lean heavily on the physicality and timing of Jackson and the help-side efforts of Bagley and Xavier Tillman, but they must also protect the perimeter to prevent Thompson and other Mavericks shooters from finding early rhythm. Offensively, Memphis should look to push the pace in transition and create quick-strike opportunities before Dallas can get set defensively—particularly if Morant plays, as his explosiveness in the open court can change the tone of the game in a matter of possessions. Even without him, the Grizzlies have shown resilience all year in the face of injuries and roster adjustments, and their 48–34 record is a testament to their depth and defensive consistency. Tonight, they’ll need to summon that same next-man-up mentality while capitalizing on home-court energy and leveraging their 40–40–1 ATS record, which reflects how often they’ve played close, competitive games. With the crowd behind them, the Grizzlies must strike early, play with urgency, and avoid prolonged scoring droughts that could allow Dallas to build momentum. This is a defining moment for a Memphis team that has evolved into a postseason mainstay in recent years, and whether Morant takes the floor or not, the Grizzlies’ blueprint for victory will hinge on physical defense, collective execution, and composure under pressure. If they can maintain their intensity and close quarters with purpose, the Grizzlies have all the pieces to emerge victorious and extend their season into the official playoff bracket.