Mavericks vs Kings Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NBA Lines & Props (Apr 16)

Updated: 2025-04-14T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Dallas Mavericks (39–43) travel to Sacramento to face the Kings (40–42) on Wednesday, April 16, 2025, in a pivotal Western Conference Play-In Tournament matchup. The winner advances to the next round of the Play-In, while the loser’s season comes to an end.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Apr 16, 2025

Start Time: 10:00 PM EST​

Venue: Golden 1 Center​

Kings Record: (40-42)

Mavericks Record: (39-43)

OPENING ODDS

DAL Moneyline: +163

SAC Moneyline: -197

DAL Spread: +5

SAC Spread: -5.0

Over/Under: 217

DAL
Betting Trends

  • The Mavericks have struggled against the spread (ATS) recently, failing to cover in their last three road games.

SAC
Betting Trends

  • The Kings have been more reliable ATS at home, covering in four of their last six games at the Golden 1 Center.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • In their last three meetings this season, the Kings have covered the spread in all three games against the Mavericks, including a 129–128 overtime victory on February 10, 2025.

DAL vs. SAC
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. DeRozan under 31.5 PTS+AST.

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Dallas vs Sacramento Prediction & Odds:
Free NBA Betting Insights for 4/16/25

Wednesday night’s Western Conference Play-In Tournament clash between the Dallas Mavericks and the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center brings high-stakes drama and postseason pressure to two franchises with contrasting styles and similarly turbulent seasons. The Mavericks come into the game with a 39–43 record, looking to salvage a rollercoaster year defined by flashes of brilliance from Luka Dončić and stretches of inconsistent defensive effort. Meanwhile, the Kings hold a narrow edge at 40–42 and boast home-court advantage for this elimination game, which they earned with a more balanced roster and a top-10 offense powered by pace and perimeter shooting. Sacramento has also won all three regular-season meetings against Dallas, including a memorable 129–128 overtime thriller back in February, and has covered the spread in each of those matchups—suggesting they may have cracked the code on how to counter Dončić’s heavy usage style. The Mavericks have struggled ATS in recent road games and have been vulnerable defensively, allowing opponents to average 117+ points per game down the stretch. Though the addition of a healthy Kyrie Irving gives Dallas another offensive dimension and elite clutch scoring, the team’s inability to consistently protect the rim or rotate on shooters has cost them critical late-game possessions throughout the regular season. On the other side, Sacramento enters the Play-In with a 4–2 ATS record over their last six home games and a roster that thrives on energy, tempo, and versatile playmaking from All-Star guard De’Aaron Fox.

Domantas Sabonis continues to be one of the most productive big men in the NBA, averaging a double-double while functioning as a passing hub from the high post, creating mismatches and kick-out opportunities that fuel the Kings’ three-point attack. The contrast in this matchup lies in Dallas’s iso-heavy, methodical offense versus Sacramento’s free-flowing transition game and collective shot-making ability, and the victor will likely be the team that can better impose its rhythm early and maintain composure late. Expect Luka Dončić to shoulder a massive load—both in scoring and facilitation—as he attempts to keep Dallas within striking distance against a Kings team that’s proven comfortable trading baskets. With the crowd in Sacramento set to deliver a playoff-level atmosphere and both teams recognizing the finality of this opportunity, this matchup is set to be a gritty, high-scoring, emotionally charged affair where second-chance points, turnovers, and late-game execution could determine the difference between advancement and elimination. For the Kings, it’s a chance to validate last year’s breakthrough playoff return with back-to-back appearances. For the Mavericks, it’s a shot at redemption after a season of underachievement, with their superstar duo needing to deliver under the brightest lights.

Dallas Mavericks NBA Preview

The Dallas Mavericks enter Wednesday night’s must-win Play-In Tournament clash against the Sacramento Kings knowing that their season, defined by offensive firepower and defensive volatility, now rests squarely on the shoulders of Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving. At 39–43, the Mavericks’ regular season was a rollercoaster of high-scoring wins and defensive collapses, underscoring the ongoing challenge of blending superstar talent with lineup balance and two-way consistency. Dončić once again delivered a statistically magnificent campaign, averaging near triple-double figures and ranking among the league’s elite in both usage and offensive efficiency. His ability to create shots out of nothing and manipulate defenses with surgical passing gives Dallas a constant scoring threat, but when he’s off the floor or double-teamed effectively, the supporting cast has struggled to respond. Kyrie Irving has had moments of brilliance, particularly in crunch time, and offers a dynamic scoring option that makes Dallas lethal in isolation and late-clock situations. However, the team’s defense has been the Achilles heel, especially on the road where they’ve failed to cover the spread in their last three games and have allowed too many uncontested threes and points in transition. The frontcourt rotation has lacked a true rim protector since the departure of Kristaps Porziņģis, and while Daniel Gafford and Maxi Kleber provide some interior presence, they often get exposed against mobile bigs like Domantas Sabonis.

This has led to rebounding disparities and an inability to close out possessions—a weakness Sacramento is well-positioned to exploit. Offensively, Dallas excels when the pace is controlled, allowing Dončić to operate in pick-and-roll and slow the game to his tempo, but Sacramento’s pace and movement will force the Mavericks to rotate and communicate on defense at a level they’ve rarely sustained. For head coach Jason Kidd, the key will be strategic lineups that provide enough floor spacing to maximize Dončić and Irving’s drives while not hemorrhaging points on the other end. Players like Tim Hardaway Jr., Josh Green, and Derrick Jones Jr. will be essential—each must knock down open looks and offer competent perimeter defense. The Mavericks are capable of outscoring any team on any given night, but when their three-point shooting goes cold or their defense lapses for stretches, they struggle to close out games. With Sacramento having won all three meetings this season, Dallas will need to shake off those ghosts and rely on their top-tier talent to turn the tide. If Dončić and Irving can find a rhythm early and keep the Kings from generating second-chance points and fast breaks, the Mavericks will be in position to steal a road win and extend their season. But if their defensive woes persist and Sacramento’s crowd energizes the home team, Dallas could find itself on the outside looking in, left to wonder how another season with one of the league’s brightest stars ended prematurely.

The Dallas Mavericks (39–43) travel to Sacramento to face the Kings (40–42) on Wednesday, April 16, 2025, in a pivotal Western Conference Play-In Tournament matchup. The winner advances to the next round of the Play-In, while the loser’s season comes to an end. Dallas vs Sacramento AI Prediction: Free NBA Betting Insights for Apr 16. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Sacramento Kings NBA Preview

The Sacramento Kings return to Golden 1 Center on Wednesday night for a win-or-go-home Play-In Tournament game against the Dallas Mavericks, armed with home-court advantage, recent head-to-head dominance, and a sense of unfinished business from last year’s postseason exit. Finishing the regular season at 40–42, the Kings fell just short of locking up a top-six playoff spot but have positioned themselves well for this high-stakes matchup, having swept all three meetings against Dallas this season and covering the spread each time. That recent success gives Sacramento not only a strategic edge but also a psychological one, as they’ve consistently been able to impose their pace, execute in the clutch, and exploit Dallas’s defensive shortcomings. De’Aaron Fox remains the catalyst for Sacramento’s high-octane offense, averaging over 25 points per game and thriving in transition, where his elite speed and finishing ability often overwhelm opponents who fail to get back or communicate in semi-transition. Alongside Fox, Domantas Sabonis continues to be one of the league’s most effective bigs, averaging a double-double while functioning as a playmaking hub at the elbows and in the high post. His ability to draw defenders and dish to shooters like Kevin Huerter, Keegan Murray, and Malik Monk creates floor spacing that allows the Kings to maintain one of the NBA’s most balanced offensive attacks. The Kings’ offensive identity is built on movement, tempo, and unselfish passing, which has been a sharp contrast to the isolation-heavy offense of Dallas—an advantage they’ve repeatedly capitalized on, particularly in games where they’ve forced the Mavericks into hurried possessions and defensive rotations they couldn’t sustain.

Defensively, Sacramento has made incremental progress this season, improving communication and physicality, particularly in the paint where Sabonis and backup big Alex Len have been more assertive. While they won’t confuse anyone with an elite defense, their ability to string together stops during critical runs has been key to their late-game success. The home environment at Golden 1 Center has become one of the league’s more raucous atmospheres, and with a full-capacity playoff crowd expected, the Kings should receive the kind of emotional lift that can influence energy plays, loose balls, and momentum swings. Sacramento’s ability to limit Luka Dončić’s influence—not necessarily by shutting him down, but by making him work for every point and keeping his supporting cast cold—will be the central defensive objective. Offensively, Fox’s aggression early, combined with Sabonis’ facilitation and perimeter scoring, will be key to building a cushion and keeping pressure on a Mavericks team prone to defensive lapses. For head coach Mike Brown and his squad, this game represents a critical opportunity to validate their growth as a young playoff team and advance with a style that blends excitement with execution. If the Kings play to their strengths, dictate tempo, and close with composure, they’ll not only move one step closer to the postseason but also reinforce the idea that Sacramento’s resurgence is not a fluke—but a movement with staying power.

Dallas vs. Sacramento Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of data on each line. In fact, anytime the Mavericks and Kings play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Golden 1 Center in Apr almost always follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. DeRozan under 31.5 PTS+AST.

Dallas vs. Sacramento Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over mountains of data from every angle between the Mavericks and Kings and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.

Remi has been most keyed in on the trending weight emotional bettors regularly put on coaching factors between a Mavericks team going up against a possibly deflated Kings team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line in particular.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NBA AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Dallas vs Sacramento picks, computer picks Mavericks vs Kings, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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Mavericks Betting Trends

The Mavericks have struggled against the spread (ATS) recently, failing to cover in their last three road games.

Kings Betting Trends

The Kings have been more reliable ATS at home, covering in four of their last six games at the Golden 1 Center.

Mavericks vs. Kings Matchup Trends

In their last three meetings this season, the Kings have covered the spread in all three games against the Mavericks, including a 129–128 overtime victory on February 10, 2025.

Dallas vs. Sacramento Game Info

Dallas vs Sacramento starts on April 16, 2025 at 10:00 PM EST.

Spread: Sacramento -5.0
Moneyline: Dallas +163, Sacramento -197
Over/Under: 217

Dallas: (39-43)  |  Sacramento: (40-42)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. DeRozan under 31.5 PTS+AST.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

In their last three meetings this season, the Kings have covered the spread in all three games against the Mavericks, including a 129–128 overtime victory on February 10, 2025.

DAL trend: The Mavericks have struggled against the spread (ATS) recently, failing to cover in their last three road games.

SAC trend: The Kings have been more reliable ATS at home, covering in four of their last six games at the Golden 1 Center.

See our latest NBA picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Dallas vs. Sacramento Odds

Remi is pouring through tons of stats on each player. In fact, anytime the Dallas vs Sacramento trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps can often follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Dallas vs Sacramento Opening Odds

DAL Moneyline: +163
SAC Moneyline: -197
DAL Spread: +5
SAC Spread: -5.0
Over/Under: 217

Dallas vs Sacramento Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 21, 2025 7:35PM EDT
Houston Rockets
Oklahoma City Thunder
10/21/25 7:35PM
Rockets
Thunder
+243
-336
+7.5 (-110)
-7.5 (-110)
O 226.5 (-110)
U 226.5 (-110)
Oct 21, 2025 10:00PM EDT
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers
10/21/25 10PM
Warriors
Lakers
-128
+101
-2 (-110)
+2 (-110)
O 224.5 (-110)
U 224.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Brooklyn Nets
Charlotte Hornets
10/22/25 7:10PM
Nets
Hornets
+149
-192
+4.5 (-110)
-4.5 (-110)
O 225.5 (-110)
U 225.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Cleveland Cavaliers
New York Knicks
10/22/25 7:10PM
Cavaliers
Knicks
+140
-182
+4 (-110)
-4 (-110)
O 229.5 (-110)
U 229.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Miami Heat
Orlando Magic
10/22/25 7:10PM
Heat
Magic
+278
-385
+8 (-110)
-8 (-110)
O 214.5 (-110)
U 214.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Philadelphia 76ers
Boston Celtics
10/22/25 7:40PM
76ers
Celtics
+111
-143
+2.5 (-110)
-2.5 (-110)
O 225.5 (-110)
U 225.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Toronto Raptors
Atlanta Hawks
10/22/25 7:40PM
Raptors
Hawks
+180
-238
+6 (-110)
-6 (-110)
O 235 (-110)
U 235 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Washington Wizards
Milwaukee Bucks
10/22/25 8:10PM
Wizards
Bucks
+286
-400
+9 (-110)
-9 (-110)
O 228.5 (-110)
U 228.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Detroit Pistons
Chicago Bulls
10/22/25 8:10PM
Pistons
Bulls
-135
+106
-2 (-110)
+2 (-110)
O 234.5 (-110)
U 234.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 8:10PM EDT
New Orleans Pelicans
Memphis Grizzlies
10/22/25 8:10PM
Pelicans
Grizzlies
+128
-164
+3.5 (-110)
-3.5 (-110)
O 237 (-110)
U 237 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 9:10PM EDT
Los Angeles Clippers
Utah Jazz
10/22/25 9:10PM
Clippers
Jazz
-385
+272
-9 (-110)
+9 (-110)
O 227.5 (-110)
U 227.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 9:40PM EDT
San Antonio Spurs
Dallas Mavericks
10/22/25 9:40PM
Spurs
Mavericks
+114
-145
+2.5 (-110)
-2.5 (-110)
O 225.5 (-110)
U 225.5 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Sacramento Kings
Phoenix Suns
10/22/25 10:10PM
Kings
Suns
+129
-164
+3.5 (-110)
-3.5 (-110)
O 227 (-110)
U 227 (-110)
Oct 22, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Minnesota Timberwolves
Portland Trail Blazers
10/22/25 10:10PM
Timberwolves
Trail Blazers
-169
+131
-3.5 (-110)
+3.5 (-110)
O 219 (-110)
U 219 (-110)
Oct 23, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Oklahoma City Thunder
Indiana Pacers
10/23/25 7:40PM
Thunder
Pacers
-325
+250
-7.5 (-110)
+7.5 (-110)
O 227 (-110)
U 227 (-110)
Oct 23, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Denver Nuggets
Golden State Warriors
10/23/25 10:10PM
Nuggets
Warriors
-115
-105
+1 (-115)
-1 (-105)
O 233.5 (-110)
U 233.5 (-110)

NBA Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings on April 16, 2025 at Golden 1 Center.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NBA odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
IND@OKC PASCAL SIAKAM OVER 2.5 PERSONAL FOULS 54.20% 4 WIN
IND@OKC IND +10 54.00% 3 WIN
IND@OKC BENNEDICT MATHURIN OVER 2.5 FREE THROW ATT 54.90% 4 WIN
NY@IND MYLES TURNER OVER 6 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 54.40% 4 LOSS
IND@NY IND +5 55.60% 5 LOSS
NY@IND JALEN BRUNSON UNDER 22 FIELD GOAL ATT 54.70% 4 WIN
OKC@MIN RUDY GOBERT OVER 1.5 FREE THROWS MADE 54.00% 4 WIN
OKC@MIN OKC -2.5 56.70% 6 LOSS
NY@IND KARL ANTHONY TOWNS OVER 32.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS 54.00% 4 WIN
OKC@MIN NAZ REID OVER 9.0 FIELD GOAL ATT 54.60% 4 LOSS
IND@NY MYLES TURNER OVER 5 MADE FIELD GOALS 53.60% 3 WIN
IND@NY NY -5.5 55.00% 4 LOSS
MIN@OKC ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN UNDER 7.5 REBOUNDS 53.00% 3 LOSS
MIN@OKC MIN +7.5 54.70% 4 LOSS
IND@NY TYRESE HALIBURTON ASSTS - UNDER 8.5 54.10% 4 LOSS
IND@NY IND +4.5 54.80% 4 WIN
MIN@OKC ALEX CARUSO UNDER 2.5 ASSTS 54.10% 4 WIN
DEN@OKC MICHAEL PORTER UNDER 7.5 REBS + AST 54.80% 4 WIN
BOS@NY NY -2.5 55.60% 5 WIN
GS@MIN DONTE DIVINCENZO OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 54.80% 4 LOSS
GS@MIN GS +10.5 54.70% 4 LOSS
DEN@OKC NIKOLA JOKIC UNDER 22.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 54.00% 4 WIN
MIN@GS JIMMY BUTLER UNDER 33.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS 54.50% 4 WIN
BOS@NY BOS -5.5 54.70% 4 WIN
OKC@DEN OKC -5 55.70% 5 LOSS
DEN@OKC SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER UNDER 12.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 54.20% 4 WIN
IND@CLE IND +8 54.00% 3 WIN
GS@MIN ANTHONY EDWARDS UNDER 40.5 PTS+REB+AST 54.00% 4 WIN
GS@MIN MIN -6.5 54.40% 4 LOSS
DEN@OKC NIKOLA JOKIC UNDER 36.5 POINTS + ASSTS 53.20% 3 LOSS
IND@CLE IND +8.5 55.70% 5 WIN
HOU@GS GS -5 53.70% 3 LOSS
HOU@GS BRANDIN PODZIEMSKI UNDER 5.5 REBOUNDS 54.10% 4 LOSS
DEN@LAC MICHAEL PORTER UNDER 7.5 REBS + AST 53.20% 3 WIN
DEN@LAC UNDER 212.5 54.00% 3 LOSS
MIN@LAL MIN +6 53.80% 3 WIN
MIN@LAL NAZ REID OVER 1.5 ASSTS 54.80% 4 WIN
LAC@DEN IVICA ZUBAC OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS 53.50% 3 LOSS
DET@NY DET +5.5 53.90% 3 WIN
CLE@MIA EVAN MOBLEY UNDER 29.5 PTS+REB+AST 53.90% 3 WIN
BOS@ORL KRISTAPS PORZINGIS UNDER 8.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS 53.10% 3 WIN
HOU@GS GS -3 53.70% 3 WIN
HOU@GS JALEN GREEN OVER 2.5 TURNOVERS 54.40% 4 LOSS
LAL@MIN LEBRON JAMES UNDER 31.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS 54.50% 4 LOSS
BOS@ORL BOS -3.5 54.70% 4 LOSS
DEN@LAC BOGDAN BOGDANOVIC OVER 2.5 THREE POINTERS ATTEMPTED 53.60% 3 LOSS
GS@HOU JALEN GREEN UNDER 3.5 FREE THROWS MADE 54.40% 4 LOSS
ORL@BOS ORL +10.5 54.70% 4 WIN
MEM@OKC ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN OVER 19.5 PTS + REB 53.80% 3 LOSS
MEM@OKC OKC -14.5 54.80% 4 WIN
LAC@DEN IVICA ZUBAC OVER 3.5 OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS 53.30% 3 LOSS