The Toronto Raptors enter their March 20, 2025, matchup against the Golden State Warriors as heavy underdogs, struggling through a difficult season that has left them near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. With a 24-45 record, the Raptors have been unable to find consistency on either end of the floor, dealing with injuries, roster instability, and defensive shortcomings. Their road performances have been particularly concerning, holding an 8-25 record away from Toronto. Adding to their struggles, they have failed to cover the spread in their last five games, making them a risky betting option against a Warriors team that has been in excellent form. Despite these setbacks, the Raptors will look to play spoiler and steal a win in what has been a lost season for them. Offensively, the Raptors have relied heavily on Scottie Barnes, who has emerged as their primary playmaker and scoring threat. Barnes has taken a significant leap in his third season, averaging 21.2 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game while showing increased confidence in his outside shooting. His versatility allows him to initiate offense, attack mismatches, and create plays for his teammates, but the lack of consistent support around him has limited Toronto’s offensive efficiency. Outside of Barnes, RJ Barrett has been one of the few bright spots, averaging 19.4 points per game since joining the team via trade earlier in the season. His ability to score at all three levels has provided Toronto with another offensive weapon, but the Raptors have struggled to get consistent contributions from their bench and role players. One of the biggest concerns for Toronto heading into this game is their lack of perimeter shooting. The Raptors rank near the bottom of the NBA in three-point percentage, struggling to space the floor and create high-quality shot opportunities. Against a Warriors team that thrives on defending the perimeter and forcing opponents into tough mid-range shots, this could be a major problem. If the Raptors cannot generate open looks from beyond the arc, they will likely struggle to keep pace with Golden State’s efficient offense. Defensively, Toronto has been one of the more inconsistent teams in the league. While they have individual defensive standouts like Barnes and Jakob Poeltl, their overall team defense has struggled with communication and transition defense. The Raptors allow 115.8 points per game, ranking among the bottom third of the league in defensive rating. Their inability to consistently get stops has made it difficult for them to stay competitive in games against elite offenses, and facing a Warriors team that has been on fire since acquiring Jimmy Butler presents a significant challenge. Rebounding has also been an area of concern for the Raptors.

While Poeltl provides rim protection and solid rebounding numbers, Toronto often struggles to secure defensive rebounds, allowing second-chance points at a high rate. Against a Warriors team that has elite rebounders in Draymond Green and Kevon Looney, this could be a major issue. If the Raptors cannot control the glass, they will find themselves giving up extra possessions, which could allow Golden State to build an early lead and take control of the game. Toronto’s transition defense has also been a glaring weakness, and it could be a decisive factor in this matchup. The Warriors are one of the best teams in the NBA at capitalizing on fast-break opportunities, pushing the tempo, and creating open three-point looks in transition. The Raptors, on the other hand, have struggled to get back on defense, often allowing opponents to score easy fast-break points. If Toronto fails to slow down Golden State’s transition offense, this game could get out of hand quickly. From a betting standpoint, the Raptors have been one of the worst teams against the spread in recent weeks. They have failed to cover in five straight games, and their road record (8-25) makes them a risky pick in this matchup. Conversely, the Warriors have covered in four of their last five games, and their dominance at Chase Center gives them a strong advantage. Given Toronto’s defensive struggles and Golden State’s momentum, the Raptors will need an exceptional performance to keep this game competitive. For the Raptors to have any chance of pulling off an upset, they will need Barnes and Barrett to have big nights offensively while also receiving strong contributions from their supporting cast. They will need to focus on ball movement, avoid turnovers, and find ways to generate open shots against a disciplined Warriors defense. Additionally, they must improve their transition defense and rebounding efforts to prevent Golden State from creating easy scoring opportunities. Ultimately, this game presents another tough challenge for Toronto in what has been a disappointing season. While they have the talent to be competitive, their lack of consistency and defensive inefficiencies make them vulnerable against high-caliber opponents like the Warriors. If they can stay disciplined and execute their game plan, they may be able to keep the game close, but given their recent form and struggles on the road, they will need a near-flawless performance to avoid another frustrating loss.