Washington remains the stronger side on paper, but the market has already trimmed its opening price after Toronto won Monday's opener 3-2. Cade Cavalli supplies the home case. He owns a 7-4 record, a 3.58 ERA and 127 strikeouts, and his recent form includes eight scoreless strikeouts at Coors Field plus a 13-strikeout gem earlier in July. Toronto counters with Shane Bieber, who looked far sharper in his last outing, allowing one run and three hits over seven innings against Tampa Bay. That rebound matters because the Nationals have played much better offensively than their home record suggests, yet they are only 22-33 at Nationals Park. Toronto's 23-28 road mark is not imposing, but the Blue Jays have now won four straight meetings in this matchup dating to 2025. The total's move from 8.5 to 9 creates a meaningful decision: Cavalli's strikeout upside and Bieber's ground-ball profile support run prevention, while Washington's healthier top-end lineup keeps late scoring risk alive.