The San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves will close out their three-game set at Truist Park on Sunday, May 25, 2025, in what shapes up to be a meaningful clash for two teams trying to solidify their place in their respective divisions heading into June. The Padres, sitting at 28–22, have been one of the more balanced teams in the National League West, but recent inconsistencies—particularly on offense and in high-leverage bullpen situations—have started to raise concerns about their ability to maintain pace in a crowded NL playoff race. Their offense has cooled considerably on the road, as indicated by hitting the team total under in 13 of their last 20 away games, and while their core lineup still features dangerous bats like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts, the team has failed to consistently produce runs outside of Petco Park. The Braves, meanwhile, come into the finale at 25–26 and have shown positive momentum with a recent offensive surge that’s seen them average 5.2 runs per game over their last ten contests while launching 13 home runs during that stretch. Atlanta’s rotation and bullpen have also taken steps forward, compiling a 3.47 ERA over that same span, with Spencer Strider and Max Fried anchoring the staff and young arms continuing to develop.

The Braves have been favored in 39 games this season and have won 21 of those, including a 14–12 record when listed at -139 or steeper, which aligns with Sunday’s current betting line. Their trend of hitting the game total under in 16 of their last 22 contests reflects a team that’s playing tighter, more pitching-focused baseball, which could be an advantage against a Padres team that struggles to generate early leads. San Diego, however, has covered the run line in 25 of their last 46 games, showing they’re typically competitive even in low-scoring or grind-it-out scenarios. This matchup will likely come down to situational execution, particularly which team can get runners across in scoring position and minimize mistakes late in the game, especially if both starters deliver quality outings. For Atlanta, playing at home and with a chance to level their record, Sunday represents an important opportunity to close out the series strong and signal to the rest of the NL East that they’re trending back toward the contender status many expected. For the Padres, it’s a chance to not only secure a road series win but to steady themselves after recent hiccups and enter the new week with confidence. The over/under is set at 8 runs, suggesting bookmakers expect a moderately low-scoring game, but with power threats on both sides, one or two swings could dramatically alter the outcome. As the final game of the series and with postseason positioning slowly coming into focus, this contest offers both clubs a chance to test their depth, showcase their stars, and make a statement about their early-season direction.