The May 22, 2025 matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals at Nationals Park wraps up a significant series in the National League East as both teams seek to solidify their footing in the standings with Atlanta sitting at 24–24 and Washington at 22–27. The Braves enter this contest trying to gain momentum and finally push past the .500 mark after an uneven start to the season that has been defined by sporadic offense, strong individual pitching efforts, and a defense that has done its job quietly and efficiently. Atlanta is averaging just 4.02 runs per game, a modest figure for a team with its level of talent, but the offensive core remains dangerous thanks to power hitters like Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna, both of whom have shown the ability to change a game with one swing and drive in key runs even when the rest of the lineup is cold. On the mound, the Braves have found something in AJ Smith-Shawver, the young right-hander who has provided a spark to the rotation with a 2.33 ERA and 1.24 WHIP across his recent starts, showcasing a mix of poise, velocity, and pitch command well beyond his years. Smith-Shawver’s emergence is a much-needed development for a pitching staff that has dealt with injuries and underperformance but still boasts a 3.91 team ERA, one of the stronger marks in the league.

Opposite him, the Nationals counter with Trevor Williams, who has struggled throughout the year with a 5.91 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, failing to provide consistent innings and often putting the team in early holes that the offense has not been able to climb out of. Despite averaging 4.19 runs per game, Washington’s lineup has lacked punch and consistency, relying heavily on CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz to produce the bulk of their offense while the rest of the batting order continues to search for answers. Defensively, Washington ranks 29th in defensive efficiency, frequently giving away extra outs that extend innings and place added pressure on their already vulnerable pitching staff. Betting trends indicate that the Braves are 8–3 against the spread over their last 11 games, while the Nationals have been competitive recently at 4–1 ATS in their last five, suggesting that while Washington is finding ways to hang around, Atlanta’s form may be slightly more trustworthy in key moments. Additionally, the total has gone UNDER in six of Atlanta’s last seven games, a reflection of the team’s strong pitching and modest offensive production, signaling a potential low-scoring game if Smith-Shawver performs to his recent standards and Washington fails to produce early runs. With the division tightening and each team hungry for momentum heading into the summer, this finale could set the tone for how each club approaches the next stretch of the season—a win for the Braves would inch them above .500 and reaffirm their postseason ambitions, while the Nationals are simply trying to claw back into the race and show they can compete with the East’s more talented rosters.