Pirates vs Phillies Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (May 18)

Updated: 2025-05-16T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies will conclude their three-game series on Sunday, May 18, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies aim for a sweep after securing victories in the first two games, while the Pirates look to avoid a series loss.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 18, 2025

Start Time: 1:35 PM EST​

Venue: Citizens Bank Park​

Phillies Record: (27-18)

Pirates Record: (15-31)

OPENING ODDS

PIT Moneyline: -114

PHI Moneyline: -105

PIT Spread: -1.5

PHI Spread: +1.5

Over/Under: 8

PIT
Betting Trends

  • The Pirates have covered the spread in 2 of their last 5 games, indicating inconsistent performance against the spread.

PHI
Betting Trends

  • The Phillies have covered the spread in 3 of their last 5 games, showing a moderate trend in covering the spread.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Phillies’ last 5 games, suggesting a trend toward lower-scoring contests.

PIT vs. PHI
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: K. Schwarber over 5 Fantasy Score.

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Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 5/18/25

The final game of the three-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, May 18, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park, will cap off what’s been a dominant series thus far for the home team. The Phillies have won the first two contests convincingly, taking the opener 8–4 behind a balanced offensive attack and following it up with a solid 5–2 victory thanks to clutch hitting and another efficient bullpen performance. Now sitting at 27–18, Philadelphia is in firm contention in the NL East and is riding a four-win-in-five-games streak that’s been fueled by standout play from stars like Bryce Harper and Trea Turner. Their lineup has produced 13 runs through the first two games of the series, and their defense has kept Pittsburgh from gaining any real traction on the bases or in key moments. Sunday’s game adds extra intrigue with the MLB debut of top Phillies pitching prospect McLean Abel, who will toe the rubber in front of a home crowd eager to see if the heralded right-hander can provide an immediate spark. Abel has been lighting up the minors with a lively fastball, good control, and poise beyond his years, and he’ll be matched up against another elite young arm in Paul Skenes of the Pirates. Skenes enters with a 3–4 record but an impressive 2.63 ERA, proving he can already hang with big-league hitters and has been one of the few bright spots in Pittsburgh’s 15–31 season.

The Pirates have dropped four of their last five games and continue to struggle both at the plate and in the field, with only six runs scored over the first two games of this series and multiple defensive miscues contributing to the Phillies’ scoring. Players like Ke’Bryan Hayes and Andrew McCutchen have flashed their experience and leadership, but the team’s inability to string together consistent offense or prevent costly errors has made even well-pitched games hard to win. Against an energized Phillies lineup and with the home crowd behind a talented rookie pitcher, the Pirates will need to play clean baseball and find timely hits if they want to avoid the sweep. For the Phillies, Sunday’s game is about continuing to ride the wave of momentum, giving Abel a smooth introduction to the majors, and showing they have the depth to thrive not just with their stars but also through their pipeline of rising talent. A sweep would solidify Philadelphia’s current hot stretch and send a message that they are built to contend deep into the season, while the Pirates simply need a win to avoid deepening their current slump and to reset mentally before the next leg of their road trip. The battle between two of baseball’s most hyped young arms gives this game added excitement, but the teams are clearly trending in opposite directions—and Sunday will reveal if Pittsburgh can dig deep or if Philadelphia’s momentum will carry them to another commanding win.

Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates enter Sunday’s series finale at Citizens Bank Park with a 15–31 record and riding a four-game losing streak, desperate to avoid a sweep at the hands of the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies and salvage something from a rough road stretch that has exposed the club’s lingering offensive inconsistencies, bullpen volatility, and lack of defensive sharpness. Despite flashes of promise earlier in the month, the Pirates have failed to generate sustained momentum, dropping the first two games of this series 8–4 and 5–2, managing just six total runs while allowing 13 and struggling to contain Philadelphia’s relentless top-of-the-order attack. Sunday offers a glimmer of hope with the presence of rookie phenom Paul Skenes on the mound, the one major bright spot in an otherwise frustrating season for Pittsburgh; Skenes has dazzled in his initial MLB starts with a 3–4 record and a 2.63 ERA, showing elite-level stuff including a fastball that touches triple digits, a sharp-breaking slider, and an advanced feel for sequencing that gives him a chance to dominate even against playoff-caliber lineups like the Phillies. The rookie will be tasked with containing a lineup that’s clicking behind Bryce Harper and Trea Turner, both of whom have reached base consistently throughout the series, and will need to go deep into the game to relieve pressure on a Pirates bullpen that has been inconsistent and at times unreliable in high-leverage situations.

Offensively, Pittsburgh continues to search for consistency, with Andrew McCutchen providing veteran leadership and Ke’Bryan Hayes delivering strong defense and flashes of contact ability, but the team as a whole ranks among the league’s worst in runs scored and slugging, often failing to capitalize on the few scoring opportunities they create. The lack of production from the bottom half of the lineup has made it difficult for the Pirates to mount rallies or provide cushion for their starters, and it places even more weight on the shoulders of Skenes to hold the opposition to minimal damage. Defensively, the Pirates have also struggled, committing untimely errors and miscommunications that have extended innings and allowed opponents to flip momentum, further compounding the margin for error. Manager Don Kelly will need a complete, mistake-free performance from his team—starting with sharp infield execution, efficient bullpen innings, and a few clutch hits in key moments—to pull off a series-ending win against a Phillies team playing with confidence and cohesion. For Pittsburgh, the goal is not only to avoid a sweep but to find signs of progress within a difficult season, and there’s no better tone-setter than Skenes, whose presence on the mound continues to be a reason for optimism amid the losses. If the bats can offer even modest support and the defense remains focused behind their ace, the Pirates have a chance to walk away with a win and a small but meaningful shift in momentum as they prepare for the next leg of their road trip.

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies will conclude their three-game series on Sunday, May 18, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies aim for a sweep after securing victories in the first two games, while the Pirates look to avoid a series loss. Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for May 18. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Philadelphia Phillies MLB Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies return to Citizens Bank Park on Sunday aiming to complete a sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates and continue their strong run through May, entering the game with a 27–18 record and sitting comfortably near the top of the NL East thanks to a balanced attack, solid defense, and a bullpen that has quietly become one of the team’s key assets. After winning the first two games of the series by scores of 8–4 and 5–2, the Phillies have outscored the Pirates 13–6 and showcased the kind of consistency and situational hitting that has eluded many teams through the early stretch of the season. Bryce Harper has been a central figure in this surge, producing at a high level with timely extra-base hits, while Trea Turner continues to ignite the offense with leadoff energy and multi-hit games, keeping pressure on opposing starters from the first pitch. Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm have added depth and versatility to the middle of the order, and the Phillies have also benefited from improved plate discipline and patience, helping to drive up pitch counts and chase starters early. On the mound for Sunday’s finale will be highly anticipated rookie McLean Abel, making his major league debut after dominating at the Triple-A level with a fastball-slider combo that has drawn praise from scouts for both velocity and control; his presence gives the Phillies a chance to gauge the next generation of rotation talent while riding a hot streak at home.

The Phillies’ defense has supported the pitching staff effectively, with crisp infield play and an outfield that covers ground well, keeping rallies short and preventing the type of defensive lapses that often swing close games. The bullpen, anchored by closer José Alvarado, who recorded his seventh save of the season on Friday, has been sharp in late innings, combining power arms with strategic matchups to protect narrow leads. Philadelphia has also been one of the league’s best home teams, feeding off the crowd and using the energy at Citizens Bank Park to fuel momentum in key series like this one, where they’ve seized control early and forced Pittsburgh to play from behind. Manager Rob Thomson has done a strong job managing both veteran talent and emerging contributors, and Sunday’s contest offers a perfect mix of long-term evaluation and short-term opportunity—a chance to win a series, rest some key bullpen arms if Abel delivers, and extend their win streak before a tougher stretch in the schedule. While facing a talented young arm in Paul Skenes, the Phillies have proven they can wear down even the best starters by working counts and manufacturing runs, and if they continue to stay aggressive on the bases and sharp on defense, there’s little doubt they’ll have a prime chance to walk away with the sweep and further cement their place as one of the NL’s most consistent and dangerous teams through the season’s first two months.

Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of stats on each player. In fact, anytime the Pirates and Phillies play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Citizens Bank Park in May can often follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: K. Schwarber over 5 Fantasy Score.

Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over tons of data from every facet between the Pirates and Phillies and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.

Interestingly enough, the data has been most fixated on the unproportionally assigned emphasis knucklehead sportsbettors tend to put on player performance factors between a Pirates team going up against a possibly improved Phillies team. In reality, the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.

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Below is our current AI Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia picks, computer picks Pirates vs Phillies, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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Pirates Betting Trends

The Pirates have covered the spread in 2 of their last 5 games, indicating inconsistent performance against the spread.

Phillies Betting Trends

The Phillies have covered the spread in 3 of their last 5 games, showing a moderate trend in covering the spread.

Pirates vs. Phillies Matchup Trends

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Phillies’ last 5 games, suggesting a trend toward lower-scoring contests.

Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia Game Info

Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia starts on May 18, 2025 at 1:35 PM EST.

Spread: Philadelphia +1.5
Moneyline: Pittsburgh -114, Philadelphia -105
Over/Under: 8

Pittsburgh: (15-31)  |  Philadelphia: (27-18)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: K. Schwarber over 5 Fantasy Score.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Phillies’ last 5 games, suggesting a trend toward lower-scoring contests.

PIT trend: The Pirates have covered the spread in 2 of their last 5 games, indicating inconsistent performance against the spread.

PHI trend: The Phillies have covered the spread in 3 of their last 5 games, showing a moderate trend in covering the spread.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia Odds

Remi is pouring through loads of stats on each player. In fact, anytime the Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.

Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia Opening Odds

PIT Moneyline: -114
PHI Moneyline: -105
PIT Spread: -1.5
PHI Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 8

Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 19, 2025 8:04PM EDT
Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays
10/19/25 8:04PM
Mariners
Blue Jays
+108
-126
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+168)
O 7.5 (-110)
U 7.5 (-110)

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies on May 18, 2025 at Citizens Bank Park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
TOR@SEA OVER 7 54.9% 3 WIN
LAD@MIL UNDER 7.5 56.6% 6 WIN
TOR@NYY OVER 8 54.9% 4 WIN
TOR@NYY CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED 53.3% 3 WIN
NYY@TOR OVER 7.5 54.8% 2 WIN
LAD@PHI OVER 7 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC CHC -109 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC OVER 7.5 54.5% 4 LOSS
SD@CHC CHC -111 54.8% 4 LOSS
CIN@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES 53.5% 3 WIN
BOS@NYY OVER 7 53.8% 3 LOSS
CIN@LAD ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES 54.4% 4 LOSS
ARI@SD SD -131 57.3% 4 WIN
DET@BOS BOS -115 56.4% 5 WIN
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN
CHC@SF CHC -105 54.1% 4 LOSS
NYY@CHW RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES 54.1% 4 WIN