Mariners vs Padres Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (May 17)

Updated: 2025-05-15T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres continue their interleague series on Saturday, May 17, 2025, at Petco Park, vying for the Vedder Cup—a newly formalized rivalry honoring Pearl Jam frontman Eddie Vedder. Both teams are in contention within their divisions, making this matchup pivotal for maintaining momentum as the season progresses.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 17, 2025

Start Time: 8:40 PM EST​

Venue: Petco Park​

Padres Record: (27-16)

Mariners Record: (24-19)

OPENING ODDS

SEA Moneyline: +144

SD Moneyline: -171

SEA Spread: +1.5

SD Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 8

SEA
Betting Trends

  • The Mariners have an ATS record of 22–18 this season, reflecting a solid performance in covering the spread.

SD
Betting Trends

  • The Padres have gone 6–4 ATS in their last 10 games, indicating a consistent ability to cover the spread recently.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle’s last 7 games, suggesting a trend toward lower-scoring affairs in their recent contests.

SEA vs. SD
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: C. Raleigh over 0.5 Total Bases.

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Seattle vs San Diego Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 5/17/25

The Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres meet at Petco Park on Saturday, May 17, 2025, in what has become one of interleague baseball’s more unique and entertaining rivalries—the Vedder Cup—named in tribute to Pearl Jam frontman Eddie Vedder, whose Pacific Northwest roots and San Diego connections unite both fanbases. This year’s installment carries added weight as both teams are not just regional rivals but also serious postseason contenders in their respective leagues. The Padres enter the game with an impressive 25–13 record, riding the momentum of one of the strongest starts in the National League, while the Mariners, at 23–19, lead a tightly contested AL West despite a rocky recent homestand. The pitching matchup features Emerson Hancock for Seattle, a promising young right-hander whose high-octane stuff has made him one of the more intriguing arms in their rotation, against former Mariners farmhand Stephen Kolek, who now starts for San Diego and has found success generating ground balls and suppressing power with his sinker-heavy approach. Offensively, the Padres have been explosive, with Fernando Tatis Jr. reasserting himself as one of the game’s brightest stars through a refined approach at the plate and Gold Glove-level defense in right field. Manny Machado is having his best season since 2022, showing improved plate discipline and a clutch bat in the middle of the order, while young talent like Jackson Merrill and veterans like Jake Cronenworth and Luis Arraez provide length and balance throughout the lineup.

The Padres’ success has also been supported by a reliable bullpen and an athletic, mistake-free defense that’s turned key double plays and erased extra bases. On the other side, the Mariners come into this game looking to regain their rhythm after a tough series stretch, but they still possess one of the more balanced rosters in the American League. Julio Rodríguez remains the heartbeat of the lineup with 36 hits, combining elite center field defense with dynamic base running and gap-to-gap power. Cal Raleigh has emerged as a legitimate power threat behind the plate, already tallying 12 home runs and playing a key leadership role with the pitching staff. Seattle’s offense has been streaky, but the pitching staff has kept them afloat, with the rotation giving competitive innings and the bullpen closing out tight games with veteran poise. Saturday’s game figures to be closely contested, with the outcome likely hinging on who can execute better in high-leverage spots—Seattle’s ability to manufacture runs against San Diego’s deep staff, or the Padres’ knack for capitalizing on any mistake with their aggressive offensive style. With both teams fighting for valuable wins to strengthen their grip on first place in their respective divisions, and with the added flair of an informal trophy and regional pride on the line, this interleague clash promises playoff-level intensity in mid-May. Fans can expect strategic baseball, emotional investment from both dugouts, and the type of electric atmosphere that has made the Vedder Cup one of MLB’s hidden gems.

Seattle Mariners MLB Preview

The Seattle Mariners arrive at Petco Park for Saturday’s contest with a 24–19 record and a fresh wave of momentum after a convincing 5–1 victory in the series opener against the San Diego Padres. That win not only helped them maintain their slim lead in the AL West but also showcased a well-rounded performance that combined power hitting, quality pitching, and clean defense—the formula manager Scott Servais has been preaching all season. The Mariners’ offense, which had been streaky earlier in the year, is heating up at the right time, averaging 5.2 runs over their last 10 games and showing better plate discipline and situational hitting. Cal Raleigh, now a fixture in the heart of the order, leads the team with 12 home runs and 30 RBIs, offering switch-hitting power from the catcher position that continues to alter game plans for opposing pitchers. Julio Rodríguez, while not fully unleashed yet, is batting .280 with 10 stolen bases and remains a game-changer both at the plate and in center field. J.P. Crawford has stepped up offensively as well, launching a solo homer in Friday’s win and continuing to provide leadership, OBP skills, and steady defense at shortstop. On the mound Saturday will be Emerson Hancock, who brings a 3–2 record and 3.80 ERA into what is expected to be one of the more challenging starts of his young season.

Hancock has improved steadily with each outing, relying on a balanced mix of a low-90s fastball, sharp slider, and improving changeup that has helped him neutralize left-handed hitters. With a strong 3.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio and an ability to avoid big innings, Hancock has quickly earned trust in a Mariners rotation that has needed young arms to step up in a competitive division. The bullpen remains one of the team’s greatest assets, with flamethrowing closer Andrés Muñoz locking down 10 saves and sporting a 2.10 ERA. He’s supported by setup men like Matt Brash and Tayler Saucedo, who have been dependable in bridging the middle innings and keeping games close. Defensively, Seattle ranks among the top teams in fielding percentage, thanks to the range and arm strength of Rodríguez in center and Crawford in the infield. Saturday’s game against the Padres presents another tough test, particularly against a deep lineup anchored by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, but the Mariners are playing with a renewed sense of confidence and clarity. If Hancock can limit damage early and Seattle’s bats stay hot against Stephen Kolek, the Mariners will be in position to clinch the series and keep control of the AL West. As the summer stretch approaches, every road win carries extra weight, and the Mariners understand that this is the type of game a contender has to win—not just to climb the standings, but to reinforce their identity as one of the most balanced and resilient teams in baseball.

The Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres continue their interleague series on Saturday, May 17, 2025, at Petco Park, vying for the Vedder Cup—a newly formalized rivalry honoring Pearl Jam frontman Eddie Vedder. Both teams are in contention within their divisions, making this matchup pivotal for maintaining momentum as the season progresses. Seattle vs San Diego AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for May 17. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

San Diego Padres MLB Preview

The San Diego Padres enter Saturday’s matchup against the Seattle Mariners with a commanding 25–13 record and one of the best overall profiles in the National League, showcasing a lineup and pitching staff both performing at high levels. After years of inconsistent execution despite star-studded rosters, the 2025 Padres have found the elusive combination of health, chemistry, and momentum, putting them in a strong early-season position atop the NL West. Fernando Tatis Jr. has reemerged as a true five-tool superstar, transforming his approach at the plate to focus on on-base skills and gap power while maintaining elite athleticism in right field. He’s been joined by Manny Machado, who is in the midst of his best season since 2022, showing renewed discipline and an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio that has made him a tough out in any situation. The heart of the lineup is supported by young breakout Jackson Merrill, whose contact-driven bat has kept innings alive, while Luis Arraez and Jake Cronenworth have provided glue-guy consistency and clutch hitting in the middle and lower third of the order. On the mound, Saturday’s start will go to Stephen Kolek, a former Mariners farmhand who has impressed in his transition to the Padres rotation with a 90 mph sinker and excellent command that has produced soft contact and timely double plays.

The rest of the staff, led by Nick Pivetta and Michael King, has done its part as well, giving manager Mike Shildt a solid trio to roll with and providing dependable innings that help ease pressure on the bullpen. That bullpen, anchored by closer Robert Suarez, has been among the more reliable in the NL, consistently shutting down rallies and locking down narrow leads. Defensively, the Padres have been sharp across the board, with strong middle infield play, solid outfield range, and very few mental mistakes, a sign of improved focus and execution from previous seasons. Entering this game against Seattle, the Padres know that a win not only helps maintain their pace in the NL West but also gives them a potential series victory in the Vedder Cup, a fun but competitive rivalry that has grown in meaning for both fanbases. The key to this matchup will be early command from Kolek and timely hitting from the middle of the order—if San Diego can strike first and control the tempo, their bullpen and defense should be able to secure the rest. With Petco Park providing one of the most vibrant home atmospheres in the league and the team clicking on all cylinders, the Padres will aim to protect their home turf, continue setting the tone in the division, and send a message that their hot start is no fluke but a sign of a mature, playoff-ready squad taking the next step forward.

Seattle vs. San Diego Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of data on each player. In fact, anytime the Mariners and Padres play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Petco Park in May seemingly never follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: C. Raleigh over 0.5 Total Bases.

Seattle vs. San Diego Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over millions of data from every simulation between the Mariners and Padres and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.

Interestingly enough, the data has been most fixated on the linear correlation of emphasis emotional bettors regularly put on player performance factors between a Mariners team going up against a possibly healthy Padres team. In reality, the true game analytics appear to reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Seattle vs San Diego picks, computer picks Mariners vs Padres, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.

Mariners Betting Trends

The Mariners have an ATS record of 22–18 this season, reflecting a solid performance in covering the spread.

Padres Betting Trends

The Padres have gone 6–4 ATS in their last 10 games, indicating a consistent ability to cover the spread recently.

Mariners vs. Padres Matchup Trends

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle’s last 7 games, suggesting a trend toward lower-scoring affairs in their recent contests.

Seattle vs. San Diego Game Info

Seattle vs San Diego starts on May 17, 2025 at 8:40 PM EST.

Spread: San Diego -1.5
Moneyline: Seattle +144, San Diego -171
Over/Under: 8

Seattle: (24-19)  |  San Diego: (27-16)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: C. Raleigh over 0.5 Total Bases.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle’s last 7 games, suggesting a trend toward lower-scoring affairs in their recent contests.

SEA trend: The Mariners have an ATS record of 22–18 this season, reflecting a solid performance in covering the spread.

SD trend: The Padres have gone 6–4 ATS in their last 10 games, indicating a consistent ability to cover the spread recently.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Seattle vs. San Diego Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of stats on each team. In fact, anytime the Seattle vs San Diego trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude almost always follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Seattle vs San Diego Opening Odds

SEA Moneyline: +144
SD Moneyline: -171
SEA Spread: +1.5
SD Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 8

Seattle vs San Diego Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 19, 2025 8:04PM EDT
Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays
10/19/25 8:04PM
Mariners
Blue Jays
+104
-127
+1.5 (-206)
-1.5 (+166)
O 7.5 (-116)
U 7.5 (-104)

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres on May 17, 2025 at Petco Park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
TOR@SEA OVER 7 54.9% 3 WIN
LAD@MIL UNDER 7.5 56.6% 6 WIN
TOR@NYY OVER 8 54.9% 4 WIN
TOR@NYY CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED 53.3% 3 WIN
NYY@TOR OVER 7.5 54.8% 2 WIN
LAD@PHI OVER 7 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC CHC -109 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC OVER 7.5 54.5% 4 LOSS
SD@CHC CHC -111 54.8% 4 LOSS
CIN@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES 53.5% 3 WIN
BOS@NYY OVER 7 53.8% 3 LOSS
CIN@LAD ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES 54.4% 4 LOSS
ARI@SD SD -131 57.3% 4 WIN
DET@BOS BOS -115 56.4% 5 WIN
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN
CHC@SF CHC -105 54.1% 4 LOSS
NYY@CHW RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES 54.1% 4 WIN