Pirates vs Phillies Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (May 17)

Updated: 2025-05-15T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies are set to face off on Saturday, May 17, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Phillies, with a 25–18 record, aim to solidify their position in the NL East, while the Pirates, struggling at 15–29, look to find momentum under new management.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 17, 2025

Start Time: 6:05 PM EST​

Venue: Citizens Bank Park​

Phillies Record: (26-18)

Pirates Record: (15-30)

OPENING ODDS

PIT Moneyline: +236

PHI Moneyline: -292

PIT Spread: +1.5

PHI Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 8.5

PIT
Betting Trends

  • The Pirates have a 6–16 record on the road this season, reflecting challenges in away games.

PHI
Betting Trends

  • The Phillies hold a 14–8 record at home, showcasing strength at Citizens Bank Park.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • The Pirates’ difficulties on the road contrast with the Phillies’ solid home performance, suggesting a potential advantage for Philadelphia in this matchup.

PIT vs. PHI
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Bohm over 4.5 Fantasy Score.

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Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 5/17/25

The Saturday, May 17, 2025, clash between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park presents a compelling contrast between a surging contender and a team trying to regain stability amid early-season struggles. The Phillies come into the matchup with a 25–18 record, sitting comfortably near the top of the NL East and building their campaign around strong home performances and a balanced, veteran-led roster. Philadelphia is 14–8 at home and continues to rely on the consistent power of Kyle Schwarber, who leads the club with 11 home runs, and the multi-tool excellence of Trea Turner, who has 38 hits and serves as a tone-setter at the top of the lineup. The Phillies’ pitching has been anchored by Zack Wheeler, who has already amassed 57 strikeouts and continues to perform like an ace, giving his team a chance to win nearly every time he takes the mound. The bullpen has held up well, complementing the starters with effective late-inning work, and the defense has played cleanly enough to avoid gifting opponents extra chances. On the other side, the Pirates have endured a rocky season, sitting at 15–29 and recently parting ways with manager Derek Shelton after a 12–26 start. Interim manager Don Kelly has stepped into a difficult situation and will attempt to reshape a team that has been inconsistent on both sides of the ball and has the unfortunate distinction of being one of the worst road teams in baseball this year, with a 6–16 record away from PNC Park.

The offense has shown flashes—particularly through Oneil Cruz’s 8 home runs and Ke’Bryan Hayes’ 34 hits—but remains disjointed, often failing to string together enough quality at-bats to sustain rallies or support the pitching staff. That staff has been plagued by inconsistency, though rookie Paul Skenes has been a bright spot with 47 strikeouts, offering hope for the future even as the present remains bumpy. The Pirates’ bullpen has been a major source of concern, frequently unraveling in tight games and undermining the progress made earlier in contests. Errors and lapses in the field have compounded those problems, creating a compounding effect that has put additional stress on an already vulnerable roster. For the Phillies, this game represents an opportunity to capitalize on a favorable matchup and continue their push toward the top of the division. For the Pirates, it is a chance to fight back against adversity, play spoiler, and prove they can compete against a high-quality opponent on the road. The key battlegrounds will be the early innings—can the Pirates get to Wheeler and quiet the Philly crowd—or will the Phillies jump out early and control the tempo of the game? With playoff implications on the horizon for one club and a desire to course-correct for the other, this mid-May showdown carries weight for both teams, each for very different reasons. Expect a focused effort from the Phillies and a spirited attempt from the Pirates to play their way out of a difficult stretch and into a more hopeful trajectory.

Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates arrive at Citizens Bank Park for Saturday’s game against the Phillies carrying the heavy burden of a 15–29 record and the scars of a turbulent start to the 2025 season. With the recent dismissal of manager Derek Shelton after a dismal 12–26 opening stretch, interim skipper Don Kelly has inherited a roster desperate for identity, consistency, and leadership. The Pirates’ road woes have been glaring—holding just a 6–16 mark away from PNC Park—and their inability to play clean, cohesive baseball has frequently led to early deficits and late-inning collapses. Offensively, the team’s production has been anchored by shortstop Oneil Cruz, whose 8 home runs and athleticism have made him one of the few bright spots in an otherwise unsteady batting order. Ke’Bryan Hayes has continued to be a reliable contact bat with 34 hits and remains a key piece defensively at third base, but there has been little support from the rest of the lineup, and the Pirates routinely struggle to capitalize with runners in scoring position. Their offensive rhythm is disrupted by inconsistent approaches at the plate, and long scoreless stretches have undermined the few strong starts turned in by their pitchers. Speaking of pitching, rookie sensation Paul Skenes has shown glimpses of his enormous potential with 47 strikeouts, but the rotation overall has failed to provide stability, with starters often unable to work deep into games.

This has exposed a bullpen that has lacked structure and confidence, often imploding under pressure and turning winnable games into painful losses. Defensively, the Pirates have not helped their own cause, with untimely errors and misplays extending innings and ballooning pitch counts. As the team attempts to navigate this transitional period under new leadership, the focus has shifted toward development and establishing core values, with an eye on turning around both performance and culture. Saturday’s matchup presents another stern challenge against a Phillies team that’s winning at home and features one of the more complete rosters in the National League. For the Pirates to contend in this game, they must get production early in the lineup, avoid giving away outs, and minimize damage when the Phillies inevitably get runners on base. The bullpen, a consistent liability thus far, must find a way to execute in high-leverage spots if Pittsburgh wants to avoid letting the game slip away late. With little room for error and a growing urgency to turn things around, the Pirates face a tall task in Philadelphia—but also an opportunity to prove they are more than their record and to take a step, however small, toward credibility and competitiveness. A win here would be a much-needed morale boost for a team in search of something to rally around.

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies are set to face off on Saturday, May 17, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Phillies, with a 25–18 record, aim to solidify their position in the NL East, while the Pirates, struggling at 15–29, look to find momentum under new management. Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for May 17. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Philadelphia Phillies MLB Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies enter Saturday’s game at Citizens Bank Park with confidence and momentum, owning a 25–18 record that places them firmly in the thick of the NL East race. Their strength at home has been a crucial piece of their early-season success, as evidenced by their 14–8 record in Philadelphia, where the team has consistently fed off the energy of the home crowd and delivered in all phases of the game. Under manager Rob Thomson’s steady leadership, the Phillies have played smart, disciplined baseball, balancing veteran experience with timely production across the lineup. Offensively, Kyle Schwarber continues to be the team’s main power source, clubbing 11 home runs and serving as a constant threat in the heart of the order. His ability to work counts and punish mistakes has helped drive the offense, which is also anchored by the electric presence of Trea Turner. Turner has collected 38 hits, stolen bases with ease, and provided top-tier defense, making him a catalyst for everything the Phillies do. Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Alec Bohm add additional punch and depth to the lineup, giving opposing pitchers few easy outs and creating relentless pressure from top to bottom. On the pitching side, Zack Wheeler has been dominant, acting as the undisputed ace with 57 strikeouts and an ability to shut down even the most potent lineups when he’s on his game.

Wheeler’s command, pitch mix, and mound presence make him one of the most reliable starters in the league, and when he pitches at home, the Phillies have been especially tough to beat. The bullpen has complemented the rotation well, with Seranthony Domínguez and José Alvarado handling late-inning duties efficiently and keeping the team competitive even in tight games. Defensively, the Phillies have tightened things up compared to prior years, limiting costly mistakes and turning double plays when needed to support their pitchers. This type of consistency and execution has allowed Philadelphia to avoid prolonged slumps and maintain their status as a contender. As they prepare to take on the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates, the Phillies have every reason to believe they can control the game from the outset. Facing a team that has fired its manager, ranks among the worst road performers in baseball, and has glaring issues on the mound and in the bullpen, Philadelphia will look to jump ahead early and rely on Wheeler to set the tone. The key will be to avoid complacency, maintain sharpness against a team with little to lose, and continue building the kind of momentum that can carry them into the summer stretch as division leaders. With home-field advantage, star power in the lineup, and an ace on the hill, the Phillies are well-positioned to extend their strong start and take full advantage of a matchup that plays to all their strengths.

Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia Prop Picks (AI)

Remi is pouring through tons of data on each player. In fact, anytime the Pirates and Phillies play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Citizens Bank Park in May almost always follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Bohm over 4.5 Fantasy Score.

Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over mountains of data from every facet between the Pirates and Phillies and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to boil down the data to a single cover probability.

Interestingly enough, the data has been most fixated on the growing weight emotional bettors often put on coaching factors between a Pirates team going up against a possibly healthy Phillies team. Trends look to say the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia picks, computer picks Pirates vs Phillies, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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Pirates Betting Trends

The Pirates have a 6–16 record on the road this season, reflecting challenges in away games.

Phillies Betting Trends

The Phillies hold a 14–8 record at home, showcasing strength at Citizens Bank Park.

Pirates vs. Phillies Matchup Trends

The Pirates’ difficulties on the road contrast with the Phillies’ solid home performance, suggesting a potential advantage for Philadelphia in this matchup.

Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia Game Info

Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia starts on May 17, 2025 at 6:05 PM EST.

Spread: Philadelphia -1.5
Moneyline: Pittsburgh +236, Philadelphia -292
Over/Under: 8.5

Pittsburgh: (15-30)  |  Philadelphia: (26-18)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Bohm over 4.5 Fantasy Score.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

The Pirates’ difficulties on the road contrast with the Phillies’ solid home performance, suggesting a potential advantage for Philadelphia in this matchup.

PIT trend: The Pirates have a 6–16 record on the road this season, reflecting challenges in away games.

PHI trend: The Phillies hold a 14–8 record at home, showcasing strength at Citizens Bank Park.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.

Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia Opening Odds

PIT Moneyline: +236
PHI Moneyline: -292
PIT Spread: +1.5
PHI Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 8.5

Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia Live Odds

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MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies on May 17, 2025 at Citizens Bank Park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
LAD@TOR TOR +1.5 56.7% 2 WIN
TOR@LAD TOR +1.5 55.3% 4 WIN
TOR@SEA OVER 7 54.9% 3 WIN
LAD@MIL UNDER 7.5 56.6% 6 WIN
TOR@NYY OVER 8 54.9% 4 WIN
TOR@NYY CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED 53.3% 3 WIN
NYY@TOR OVER 7.5 54.8% 2 WIN
LAD@PHI OVER 7 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC CHC -109 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC OVER 7.5 54.5% 4 LOSS
SD@CHC CHC -111 54.8% 4 LOSS
CIN@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES 53.5% 3 WIN
BOS@NYY OVER 7 53.8% 3 LOSS
CIN@LAD ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES 54.4% 4 LOSS
ARI@SD SD -131 57.3% 4 WIN
DET@BOS BOS -115 56.4% 5 WIN
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN