The Tampa Bay Rays enter their May 14, 2025 matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays with an 18–22 record and in dire need of a turnaround as they face one of the more complete and resurgent teams in the American League East. After dropping the series opener and continuing a stretch that’s seen them go 4–11 against the spread in their last 15 games, the Rays find themselves stuck in neutral, plagued by inconsistent offense, untimely bullpen lapses, and an inability to cash in on scoring opportunities in critical moments. Offensively, the Rays are averaging 4.7 runs per game over their last 10 outings, but those runs have come in bursts rather than as part of sustained offensive momentum, and the team has often found itself playing catch-up early due to slow starts and a lack of early-game firepower. Key bats like Yandy Díaz and Isaac Paredes have struggled to find rhythm, and while Harold Ramírez and Randy Arozarena have offered intermittent pop, Tampa Bay hasn’t had the lineup depth or hot streaks to pressure opposing pitching staffs for an entire game. As a result, manager Kevin Cash has had to tinker with the batting order and play more matchup-heavy baseball, which, while strategic, has not consistently translated into wins. On the mound, the Rays will send Ryan Pepiot (2–4, 3.86 ERA) to the hill in hopes of stabilizing their pitching and giving the team a fighting chance; Pepiot has shown flashes of excellence, using a plus changeup and a high-spin fastball to miss bats, but his starts have often been undermined by lack of support or a rough early inning that inflates his pitch count.

He will need to be sharp against a Toronto lineup that has started to click and is especially dangerous at home, where the Blue Jays have scored early and forced starters out prematurely. Pepiot’s ability to locate his fastball early in counts and neutralize Toronto’s right-handed power will be crucial if the Rays hope to avoid falling behind yet again. Defensively, Tampa Bay remains fundamentally sound, with strong infield play and solid outfield range, but even minor mistakes have been amplified in recent weeks due to narrow margins and the team’s inability to generate offense in late innings. The bullpen, usually a strength, has been middling during this stretch, with blown leads and command issues from setup men complicating close-game scenarios. To escape Toronto with a win and shift momentum, the Rays must find a way to string together competitive at-bats, protect leads if they get them, and lean on Pepiot to hold Toronto’s surging offense in check through five or six innings. This is a crucial game for Tampa Bay—not just to stop the slide, but to prove they can compete with playoff-caliber opponents and avoid slipping further down in a division that is increasingly competitive. If they don’t start producing consistently with runners on base and regain confidence in the bullpen late, the Rays risk watching another winnable game slip away and falling further behind in an AL East that won’t wait for them to catch up.