The Miami Marlins and Chicago Cubs will meet on May 12, 2025, at Wrigley Field in a game that features two National League clubs on very different trajectories, with the Cubs aiming to extend their strong start to the season and hold their spot atop the NL Central, while the Marlins arrive in Chicago hoping to reverse their early struggles and climb out of the basement of the NL East. The Cubs come in at 23-17 with a 10-9 home record, and despite dealing with injuries to key arms like Justin Steele, they’ve remained one of the more consistent teams in the National League, buoyed by a deep lineup, a reliable bullpen, and sharp in-game management from Craig Counsell. Their lineup has been powered by the steady contributions of Ian Happ and newcomer Kyle Tucker, who has added left-handed thump and plate discipline to an offense that has done an excellent job of extending innings, working counts, and capitalizing with runners in scoring position. On the mound, even with Steele out, the Cubs’ rotation has found ways to deliver competitive starts, while the bullpen—led by Adbert Alzolay and Julian Merryweather—has been exceptional in late-inning situations, helping the club secure a league-leading 15-4 record against the spread. The Marlins, by contrast, enter this matchup with a 15-23 record and a 5-11 road mark that underscores the inconsistency and lack of depth that has plagued them since the first pitch of the season.

Injuries to young star pitcher Eury Pérez and the uneven production from both the lineup and bullpen have made it difficult for Miami to string together wins, though there have been bright spots like Matt Mervis, who leads the team with a .333 average and 5 home runs, and Jacob Amaya, who’s chipped in with a .265 average and 18 RBIs while offering defensive versatility and hustle. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jesús Sánchez have also had moments, but the team has struggled to maintain offensive pressure and often falls behind early, forcing manager Clayton McCullough to stretch his thin bullpen and try to play catch-up. Miami’s biggest issue has been generating sustained offense in key situations, as they rank among the league’s worst in batting average with runners in scoring position, and the absence of a true front-line starter with Pérez sidelined has created problems with keeping games close. Statistically, the Cubs hold several matchup advantages, particularly at home where they’ve dominated weaker opponents and covered spreads with remarkable consistency, while the Marlins’ road woes have shown little sign of correcting, and their current form suggests another uphill climb at Wrigley. For Miami to pull off the upset, they’ll need a quality start, error-free defense, and a breakout performance from their offense—an unlikely trifecta against a Cubs team that has looked sharp, confident, and playoff-ready through the first six weeks of the season. With Wrigley behind them and momentum on their side, the Cubs are primed to keep their foot on the gas against a Marlins squad that continues to search for answers.