Cardinals vs Nationals Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (May 11)

Updated: 2025-05-09T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals will conclude their three-game series on Sunday, May 11, 2025, at Nationals Park, with first pitch scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. The Cardinals have secured the first two games of the series and aim for a sweep, while the Nationals look to avoid a third consecutive loss at home.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 11, 2025

Start Time: 1:35 PM EST​

Venue: Nationals Park​

Nationals Record: (17-23)

Cardinals Record: (21-19)

OPENING ODDS

STL Moneyline: +116

WAS Moneyline: -137

STL Spread: +1.5

WAS Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 8.5

STL
Betting Trends

  • The Cardinals have a 19-19 overall record and are 13-8 against the spread (ATS) at home and 6-11 ATS on the road this season.

WAS
Betting Trends

  • The Nationals hold a 17-21 overall record, with an 11-8 ATS record at home and 8-11 ATS on the road this season.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • The Nationals have been favored on the moneyline six times this season, winning two of those games (33.3%). The Cardinals have been underdogs on the moneyline in 26 games, winning 13 of them (50%).

STL vs. WAS
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: W. Contreras over 5 Fantasy Score.

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St. Louis vs Washington Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 5/11/25

The St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals wrap up their three-game weekend series at Nationals Park on Sunday, May 11, 2025, in a matchup that finds the two clubs trending in opposite directions. The Cardinals have taken the first two games of the series, including a dominant 10-0 shutout in the opener and a comfortable win in Game 2, extending their winning streak to six—their longest since mid-2023—and pushing their record above .500 for the first time since early April. The surge has been fueled by a resurgent offense and unexpectedly strong performances from the pitching staff. Erick Fedde threw a complete-game shutout in Game 1, while key bats like Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado have come alive, providing timely hitting and depth to the lineup. Brendan Donovan continues to set the tone at the top of the order, batting .327 on the year, and Lars Nootbaar has added speed and consistency, both offensively and defensively. For the series finale, St. Louis will turn to veteran right-hander Miles Mikolas, who enters with a 1-3 record and a 4.76 ERA, looking to build on the staff’s recent dominance. The Nationals, on the other hand, find themselves in a rut, having dropped three straight games and falling to 17-21 overall. They’ve struggled to generate offense consistently, being shut out for the third time this season on Friday, and continue to face challenges with run production and situational hitting.

MacKenzie Gore will start for Washington, and while his 3.33 ERA indicates solid work, he’s received little run support in recent outings. The Nationals are hitting just .242 as a team with a .386 slugging percentage—numbers that reflect an inability to string together rallies or deliver in clutch spots. James Wood and Keibert Ruiz have been the team’s steadiest contributors, but their offense too often relies on individual efforts rather than cohesive production. Sunday’s game could come down to whether Gore can neutralize the Cardinals’ surging lineup long enough for the Nationals to scrape together offense against Mikolas, who has been inconsistent this season but capable of working deep into games when his command is on. Key factors will include early scoring, defensive execution, and bullpen management, as Washington’s relief corps has been vulnerable in the late innings. For the Cardinals, this is a chance to complete a morale-boosting sweep, continue climbing in the NL Central standings, and head into the next series with momentum. For the Nationals, avoiding a sweep at home is critical for maintaining confidence and staying afloat in a competitive NL East. As both teams take the field, the contrast in form and confidence couldn’t be sharper—St. Louis is rolling, while Washington is searching for answers, and that dynamic sets the tone for a high-leverage finale at Nationals Park.

St. Louis Cardinals MLB Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals enter Sunday’s series finale against the Washington Nationals riding a wave of momentum, having won six straight games and playing some of their best baseball of the young 2025 season. After a sluggish start that saw them dip below .500 for several weeks, the Cardinals have surged into form behind a combination of timely hitting, improved pitching, and a revitalized clubhouse energy. Now sitting at 21-19, the team has climbed back into the NL Central conversation and looks to complete a sweep of the Nationals with a win in Washington. The turnaround has been fueled by balanced offensive contributions from both veterans and rising contributors. Brendan Donovan has emerged as one of the league’s most consistent leadoff hitters, posting a .327 batting average and setting the tone early with aggressive plate appearances and excellent contact skills. Willson Contreras has added power and clutch production, while Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Arenado have provided reliable run support and defensive stability. Over their last six games, the Cardinals have averaged nearly six runs per game while allowing just over two per contest—a testament to how well they’ve clicked in all phases. On the mound for Sunday is Miles Mikolas, a veteran right-hander who has had an uneven start to 2025 but remains a dependable innings-eater.

With a 1-3 record and 4.76 ERA, Mikolas has struggled with command at times but has the ability to keep opposing lineups off balance when locating effectively. His success will largely depend on working ahead in counts and avoiding the long ball, particularly against a Nationals team that has struggled for power but still features hitters capable of capitalizing on mistakes. Behind him, the Cardinals’ bullpen has quietly rounded into shape, closing out games effectively during the winning streak and offering multiple high-leverage options for manager Oliver Marmol. Defensively, St. Louis remains sharp, with standout performances across the infield and in the outfield, where Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson have combined for highlight-reel plays and strong throws. The key for the Cardinals on Sunday will be maintaining their aggressive offensive approach while continuing to execute fundamentally—putting pressure on the basepaths, manufacturing runs early, and capitalizing on any Nationals miscues. Completing a road sweep would be a significant achievement for a team that only weeks ago was struggling to find its identity and would further solidify their place as legitimate contenders in the National League. With a revitalized lineup, veteran leadership, and a pitching staff starting to find its rhythm, the Cardinals look poised to continue their upward trajectory and extend their winning streak to seven as they aim to carry this surge into the heart of the season.

The St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals will conclude their three-game series on Sunday, May 11, 2025, at Nationals Park, with first pitch scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. The Cardinals have secured the first two games of the series and aim for a sweep, while the Nationals look to avoid a third consecutive loss at home. St. Louis vs Washington AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for May 11. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Washington Nationals MLB Preview

The Washington Nationals enter Sunday’s series finale against the St. Louis Cardinals desperate to halt a three-game losing streak and salvage a win before heading back on the road, having dropped the first two games of the series and falling to 17-21 on the season. Their most recent struggles have come on both sides of the ball—while the offense has gone cold at key moments, the pitching staff has failed to suppress opposing lineups early, putting the Nationals in constant uphill battles. After being shut out in the series opener 10-0 and managing little sustained offense in Game 2, the Nationals will turn to left-hander MacKenzie Gore to try and reverse the trend. Gore, with a 2-3 record and a solid 3.33 ERA, has been one of Washington’s most reliable starters this season, showing growth in command and maturity while displaying the high strikeout potential that made him a top prospect. He’ll need to be sharp against a Cardinals team that’s been surging at the plate and riding a six-game win streak. For Washington, the key lies in giving Gore early run support—a luxury he’s lacked in several outings—while getting production from the top of the order, particularly from James Wood and Keibert Ruiz. Wood has racked up 41 hits and 23 RBIs, serving as one of the team’s few consistent run producers, while Ruiz leads the club in batting average and continues to improve as both a hitter and a defensive catcher.

Still, the team’s overall offensive output has been middling, batting just .242 as a group with a .386 slugging percentage, and their inability to hit with runners in scoring position has been a recurring issue. Manager Dave Martinez may need to shake up the lineup or adopt more aggressive base running to create pressure and generate runs without relying solely on power. Defensively, the Nationals have been competent but not elite, and they’ll need a clean game on that front to stay competitive against a Cardinals team that thrives on capitalizing on mistakes. The bullpen remains a question mark, particularly in late innings, where the Nationals have seen a number of leads slip away due to inconsistent relief work. With the Cardinals in the midst of their hottest stretch of the season, Washington’s margin for error is slim, and they’ll need a total team effort to avoid the sweep. Sunday’s game represents more than just a rubber match—it’s a gut-check opportunity for a Nationals squad that has shown flashes of potential but continues to wrestle with inconsistency. A win would not only end a frustrating stretch but could restore some rhythm and confidence before a tough road swing. Gore’s performance will likely dictate the team’s chances, but the bats must show up early and often if Washington hopes to fend off a confident St. Louis team and reestablish some stability in a division that remains tightly packed.

St. Louis vs. Washington Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of datapoints on each team. In fact, anytime the Cardinals and Nationals play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Nationals Park in May can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: W. Contreras over 5 Fantasy Score.

St. Louis vs. Washington Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over millions of data from every past game between the Cardinals and Nationals and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to boil down the data to a single cover probability.

Interestingly enough, the data has been most focused on the linear correlation of weight human bettors often put on St. Louis’s strength factors between a Cardinals team going up against a possibly deflated Nationals team. Trends look to say the true game analytics appear to reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line specifically.

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Below is our current AI St. Louis vs Washington picks, computer picks Cardinals vs Nationals, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.

Cardinals Betting Trends

The Cardinals have a 19-19 overall record and are 13-8 against the spread (ATS) at home and 6-11 ATS on the road this season.

Nationals Betting Trends

The Nationals hold a 17-21 overall record, with an 11-8 ATS record at home and 8-11 ATS on the road this season.

Cardinals vs. Nationals Matchup Trends

The Nationals have been favored on the moneyline six times this season, winning two of those games (33.3%). The Cardinals have been underdogs on the moneyline in 26 games, winning 13 of them (50%).

St. Louis vs. Washington Game Info

St. Louis vs Washington starts on May 11, 2025 at 1:35 PM EST.

Spread: Washington -1.5
Moneyline: St. Louis +116, Washington -137
Over/Under: 8.5

St. Louis: (21-19)  |  Washington: (17-23)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: W. Contreras over 5 Fantasy Score.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

The Nationals have been favored on the moneyline six times this season, winning two of those games (33.3%). The Cardinals have been underdogs on the moneyline in 26 games, winning 13 of them (50%).

STL trend: The Cardinals have a 19-19 overall record and are 13-8 against the spread (ATS) at home and 6-11 ATS on the road this season.

WAS trend: The Nationals hold a 17-21 overall record, with an 11-8 ATS record at home and 8-11 ATS on the road this season.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

St. Louis vs. Washington Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of data on each player. In fact, anytime the St. Louis vs Washington trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme hostile environments rarely follow normal, predictable betting trends.

St. Louis vs Washington Opening Odds

STL Moneyline: +116
WAS Moneyline: -137
STL Spread: +1.5
WAS Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 8.5

St. Louis vs Washington Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 19, 2025 8:04PM EDT
Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays
10/19/25 8:04PM
Mariners
Blue Jays
+112
-123
+1.5 (-195)
-1.5 (+171)
O 7.5 (-114)
U 7.5 (-101)

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals on May 11, 2025 at Nationals Park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
TOR@SEA OVER 7 54.9% 3 WIN
LAD@MIL UNDER 7.5 56.6% 6 WIN
TOR@NYY OVER 8 54.9% 4 WIN
TOR@NYY CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED 53.3% 3 WIN
NYY@TOR OVER 7.5 54.8% 2 WIN
LAD@PHI OVER 7 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC CHC -109 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC OVER 7.5 54.5% 4 LOSS
SD@CHC CHC -111 54.8% 4 LOSS
CIN@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES 53.5% 3 WIN
BOS@NYY OVER 7 53.8% 3 LOSS
CIN@LAD ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES 54.4% 4 LOSS
ARI@SD SD -131 57.3% 4 WIN
DET@BOS BOS -115 56.4% 5 WIN
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN
CHC@SF CHC -105 54.1% 4 LOSS
NYY@CHW RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES 54.1% 4 WIN