Red Sox vs. Royals
Prediction, Odds & Props
May 11 | MLB AI Picks

Updated: 2025-05-09T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals will conclude their three-game series on Sunday, May 11, 2025, at Kauffman Stadium. With the series tied 1-1, both teams aim to secure the series victory and gain momentum in their respective divisions.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 11, 2025

Start Time: 2:10 PM EST​

Venue: Kauffman Stadium​

Royals Record: (24-17)

Red Sox Record: (21-20)

OPENING ODDS

BOS Moneyline: +109

KC Moneyline: -129

BOS Spread: +1.5

KC Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 8.5

BOS
Betting Trends

  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the spread in 17 of their 30 games as moneyline favorites this season, resulting in a 56.7% success rate.

KC
Betting Trends

  • The Kansas City Royals have a 12-4 record as moneyline favorites this season, covering the spread in 75% of those games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • The Royals have been particularly strong at home, boasting a 14-5 record, while the Red Sox have a nearly even 10-9 record on the road. The over/under for Sunday’s game is set at 8.5 runs, with the Royals favored at -125 and the Red Sox at +105.

BOS vs. KC
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: R. Devers over 0.5 Total Bases.

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Boston vs Kansas City Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 5/11/25

The Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals will square off in the rubber match of their three-game series on Sunday, May 11, 2025, at Kauffman Stadium, with both teams aiming to build momentum as they continue to push within their respective divisions. After Kansas City edged out a tight 2-1 victory in the opener, Boston stormed back with a commanding 10-1 win in Game 2, showcasing the explosive offense that has kept them competitive in the AL East. At 21-20, the Red Sox are currently second in their division behind the Yankees and are fighting to stay within striking distance, while the Royals sit at 24-17, just 2.5 games back of the Tigers in a surprisingly tight AL Central race. Sunday’s pitching matchup features veteran right-hander Lucas Giolito for Boston against the Royals’ reliable righty Seth Lugo. Giolito has struggled to find his footing in 2025, posting an 0-1 record with an 8.38 ERA over limited appearances, and this start represents a key opportunity for him to regain confidence and prove he can still be a dependable part of the rotation. Lugo, in contrast, has been a cornerstone for Kansas City’s pitching staff, compiling a 3-3 record with a 2.84 ERA and delivering quality innings nearly every time he takes the mound. Offensively, the Royals have leaned heavily on the dynamic duo of Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia, who have combined for over 60 hits and are each batting over .315 while consistently creating havoc on the basepaths.

Witt Jr.’s blend of speed, gap power, and defensive brilliance has made him one of the most impactful players in the American League. Garcia, batting .316 with a .493 slugging percentage, has emerged as a reliable top-of-the-order presence who sets the tone for Kansas City’s offense. However, the Royals’ lineup beyond these two has lacked consistent firepower, with several regulars struggling to produce and posting OPS figures well below league average. The Red Sox, meanwhile, continue to rely on Alex Bregman’s veteran presence in the middle of the order, with his nine home runs and 31 RBIs pacing the team. Wilyer Abreu has provided a valuable boost with a .273 average and .539 slugging percentage, and while Boston has been dealing with key injuries—most notably the absence of Masataka Yoshida—they’ve maintained enough offensive depth to remain dangerous. Defensively, both teams have played clean baseball, with Kansas City’s infield standing out for its sharp execution and ability to turn timely double plays. Boston will need to back up Giolito with crisp defense and early run support if they want to avoid exposing their bullpen too early. The Royals, dominant at home with a 14-5 record, have thrived in close games and used their bullpen effectively to protect leads late. With the over/under set at 8.5 and both teams hovering near key divisional thresholds, this series finale could hinge on which starter settles in quicker and which offense capitalizes first. For Boston, a win would mean another series win on the road and renewed momentum in a crowded AL East. For Kansas City, it’s a chance to assert home-field dominance and continue a breakout campaign that has them firmly in contention as mid-May approaches.
The Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates conclude their three-game series at PNC Park on Sunday, May 11, 2025, with first pitch scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. The Braves aim to secure a series win, while the Pirates look to avoid a sweep and snap their recent losing streak.

Boston Red Sox MLB Preview

The Boston Red Sox enter Sunday’s finale against the Kansas City Royals with the chance to notch an important road series win and push themselves further into the thick of the AL East race. At 21-20, the Red Sox are currently second in the division behind the Yankees and are looking to build momentum after Saturday’s emphatic 10-1 victory, which featured a breakout performance from their offense that had been searching for consistency. Boston will send Lucas Giolito to the mound, a veteran right-hander who has struggled to find rhythm in 2025, posting an 0-1 record with an 8.38 ERA over limited outings. For Giolito, this start is a pivotal opportunity to reset his season and provide length for a pitching staff that has leaned heavily on its bullpen in recent weeks. While the numbers aren’t flattering, Giolito has historically performed well in bounce-back situations and could benefit from facing a Kansas City lineup that, aside from Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia, has struggled to generate sustained offense. For Boston’s bats, Saturday’s win was a showcase of what they’re capable of when the lineup clicks. Alex Bregman continues to be the driving force, leading the team with nine home runs and 31 RBIs, while Wilyer Abreu has added a strong presence with a .273 batting average and .539 slugging percentage.

The Red Sox have also relied on timely contributions from role players and their bench, compensating for the absence of Masataka Yoshida, who remains sidelined with a shoulder injury. Their offensive approach has leaned more heavily on slugging than contact, and when they’re seeing the ball well—as they did on Saturday—they can put up crooked numbers quickly. Defensively, Boston has held its own, with steady infield play and dependable catching behind the plate to help stabilize a rotation that has dealt with injuries and inconsistency. The Red Sox are 10-9 on the road this season, a sign of their ability to grind out tough games away from Fenway Park, and a win on Sunday would mark another strong series result that could build the momentum they need to surge in the standings. The bullpen, while solid overall, could use some rest, making it essential for Giolito to get through at least five or six innings to give the back end a manageable workload. Manager Alex Cora has proven adept at mixing matchups late in games, but Boston will be aiming to avoid a one-run affair, especially against a Kansas City bullpen that’s been lights out at home. With the opportunity to leave Kansas City with a winning record and momentum on their side, the Red Sox will be counting on Giolito to steady the ship and the offense to keep applying pressure early and often in what could be a tight, high-leverage contest.

The Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals will conclude their three-game series on Sunday, May 11, 2025, at Kauffman Stadium. With the series tied 1-1, both teams aim to secure the series victory and gain momentum in their respective divisions. Boston vs Kansas City AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for May 11. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Kansas City Royals MLB Preview

The Kansas City Royals return to Kauffman Stadium on Sunday looking to bounce back from a humbling 10-1 loss to the Boston Red Sox and secure a statement series win that would continue their early-season surge in the AL Central. At 24-17 and just 2.5 games behind the division-leading Detroit Tigers, the Royals have emerged as one of the surprise contenders in the American League, thanks to a combination of dominant home play, a resurgent pitching staff, and elite top-of-the-lineup production. They are 14-5 at home this season, and their ability to control the pace of the game in their own ballpark has given them a distinct edge. Seth Lugo will get the start for Kansas City, entering the game with a 3-3 record and a stellar 2.84 ERA, having delivered multiple quality outings while proving to be the most dependable arm in the rotation. Lugo’s command and poise have allowed him to work deep into games and keep the Royals in striking distance even when the offense takes time to warm up. He’ll need to be sharp on Sunday after Boston’s lineup erupted for 10 runs the previous night, and keeping runners off base early will be key to minimizing pressure on the bullpen. Offensively, Kansas City is led by the electric Bobby Witt Jr. and the steady Maikel Garcia, both batting over .315 with slugging percentages near .500. Witt, hitting .318 with a .519 slugging mark, continues to dazzle as a five-tool player and has been instrumental in igniting the Royals’ offense with his speed, power, and elite glove work at shortstop.

Garcia has been equally valuable in setting the tone atop the lineup and consistently generating traffic for the middle of the order. The challenge, however, has been depth—beyond Witt and Garcia, much of the Royals’ regular lineup has posted OPS numbers under .700, limiting their ability to sustain rallies if the top of the order doesn’t produce. Kansas City’s bullpen has been a strength, especially at home, where they’ve consistently protected slim leads and shut down opponents in late innings. Manager Matt Quatraro has managed his bullpen with discipline, knowing when to lean on his best arms and when to extend starters like Lugo in order to save bullets for high-leverage situations. Defensively, the Royals have been one of the more consistent teams in the American League, with minimal errors and solid execution of fundamentals. Sunday’s matchup offers the Royals a valuable opportunity—not only to earn a hard-fought series win over a surging Boston team but also to reaffirm their legitimacy as a postseason contender. A victory would lift them to eight wins in their last ten games and continue to apply pressure in a suddenly competitive AL Central. With Lugo on the mound, home-field advantage behind them, and Witt and Garcia continuing to lead the charge, the Royals have every reason to believe they can close the weekend on a high note and continue building what has been one of the more compelling starts in the majors this season.

The Braves have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season, with a 6-17 record, covering only 26.1% of their games.

Boston vs. Kansas City Prop Picks (AI)

Remi is pouring through mountains of datapoints on each line. In fact, anytime the Red Sox and Royals play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Kauffman Stadium in May can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: R. Devers over 0.5 Total Bases.

Boston vs. Kansas City Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over mountains of data from every angle between the Red Sox and Royals and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.

The Algorithm has been most watching on the unproportionally assigned factor knucklehead sportsbettors often put on Boston’s strength factors between a Red Sox team going up against a possibly deflated Royals team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Boston vs Kansas City picks, computer picks Red Sox vs Royals, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
MLB 9/26 DET@BOS UNLOCK THIS PICK 5 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
MLB 9/26 BAL@NYY UNLOCK THIS PICK 4 INTEL Locked INTEL
MLB 9/26 ARI@SD UNLOCK THIS PICK 4 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
MLB 9/26 NYM@MIA UNLOCK THIS PICK 1 INTEL Locked INTEL
MLB 9/26 NYM@MIA GET FREE PICK NOW 1
MLB 9/26 COL@SF UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.

Red Sox Betting Trends

The Boston Red Sox have covered the spread in 17 of their 30 games as moneyline favorites this season, resulting in a 56.7% success rate.

Royals Betting Trends

The Kansas City Royals have a 12-4 record as moneyline favorites this season, covering the spread in 75% of those games.

Red Sox vs. Royals Matchup Trends

The Royals have been particularly strong at home, boasting a 14-5 record, while the Red Sox have a nearly even 10-9 record on the road. The over/under for Sunday’s game is set at 8.5 runs, with the Royals favored at -125 and the Red Sox at +105.

Boston vs. Kansas City Game Info

Boston vs Kansas City starts on May 11, 2025 at 2:10 PM EST.

Spread: Kansas City -1.5
Moneyline: Boston +109, Kansas City -129
Over/Under: 8.5

Boston: (21-20)  |  Kansas City: (24-17)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: R. Devers over 0.5 Total Bases.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

The Royals have been particularly strong at home, boasting a 14-5 record, while the Red Sox have a nearly even 10-9 record on the road. The over/under for Sunday’s game is set at 8.5 runs, with the Royals favored at -125 and the Red Sox at +105.

BOS trend: The Boston Red Sox have covered the spread in 17 of their 30 games as moneyline favorites this season, resulting in a 56.7% success rate.

KC trend: The Kansas City Royals have a 12-4 record as moneyline favorites this season, covering the spread in 75% of those games.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Boston vs. Kansas City Odds

Remi is pouring through loads of stats on each player. In fact, anytime the Boston vs Kansas City trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps can often follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Boston vs Kansas City Opening Odds

BOS Moneyline: +109
KC Moneyline: -129
BOS Spread: +1.5
KC Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 8.5

Boston vs Kansas City Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Sep 27, 2025 1:06PM EDT
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
9/27/25 1:06PM
Orioles
Yankees
+190
-235
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
O 8.5 (-120)
U 8.5 (+100)
Sep 27, 2025 2:21PM EDT
St Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
9/27/25 2:21PM
Cardinals
Cubs
 
-175
 
-1.5 (+115)
O 9.5 (-105)
U 9.5 (-115)
Sep 27, 2025 3:09PM EDT
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
9/27/25 3:09PM
Rays
Blue Jays
+130
-155
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+130)
O 8.5 (-110)
U 8.5 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Chicago White Sox
Washington Nationals
9/27/25 4:06PM
White Sox
Nationals
+100
-120
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-200)
O 8.5 (-110)
U 8.5 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
9/27/25 4:06PM
Rockies
Giants
+185
-225
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
O 8 (-105)
U 8 (-115)
Sep 27, 2025 4:11PM EDT
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
9/27/25 4:11PM
Mets
Marlins
-130
+110
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-150)
O 8.5 (-105)
U 8.5 (-115)
Sep 27, 2025 6:05PM EDT
Minnesota Twins
Philadelphia Phillies
9/27/25 6:05PM
Twins
Phillies
+170
-205
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (+100)
O 8.5 (-115)
U 8.5 (-105)
Sep 27, 2025 7:11PM EDT
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
9/27/25 7:11PM
Reds
Brewers
+125
-150
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+150)
O 8 (-105)
U 8 (-115)
Sep 27, 2025 7:15PM EDT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Atlanta Braves
9/27/25 7:15PM
Pirates
Braves
+140
-170
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+130)
O 8 (-110)
U 8 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 7:16PM EDT
Texas Rangers
Cleveland Guardians
9/27/25 7:16PM
Rangers
Guardians
+135
-165
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+150)
O 7 (-120)
U 7 (+100)
Sep 27, 2025 8:40PM EDT
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
9/27/25 8:40PM
Diamondbacks
Padres
+115
-140
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
O 7.5 (-120)
U 7.5 (+100)
Sep 27, 2025 9:39PM EDT
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
9/27/25 9:39PM
Astros
Angels
-165
+135
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-125)
O 9 (+100)
U 9 (-120)
Sep 27, 2025 9:41PM EDT
Los Angeles Dodgers
Seattle Mariners
9/27/25 9:41PM
Dodgers
Mariners
+100
-120
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-205)
O 7.5 (-110)
U 7.5 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 10:05PM EDT
Kansas City Royals
Oakland Athletics
9/27/25 10:05PM
Royals
Athletics
+100
-120
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-180)
O 10 (-110)
U 10 (-110)

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals on May 11, 2025 at Kauffman Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN
CHC@SF CHC -105 54.1% 4 LOSS
NYY@CHW RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES 54.1% 4 WIN
PHI@NYM OVER 8.5 55.6% 4 LOSS
LAA@TEX LOGAN OHOPPE OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.1% 4 LOSS
KC@CHW KC -109 54.2% 4 WIN
SD@SEA DYLAN CEASE OVER 16.5 OUTS 53.9% 3 LOSS
SD@SEA UNDER 8.5 54.4% 4 LOSS
MIN@TOR JOE RYAN UNDER 2.5 EARNED RUNS 54.1% 4 LOSS
SF@MIL MIL +100 54.0% 6 LOSS
TOR@MIA MIA +1.5 62.0% 6 WIN
CHC@LAA OVER 9.5 54.9% 4 LOSS
BOS@NYY CARLOS RODON UNDER 4.5 HITS ALLOWED 54.2% 4 WIN
KC@DET DET -115 56.1% 5 WIN
CHC@LAA LAA +1.5 57.6% 5 LOSS
CIN@ARI KEBRYAN HAYES STRIKEOUTS UNDER 0.5 56.2% 6 WIN
LAD@SD SD +110 50.9% 6 WIN