The May 9, 2025 clash between the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets at Citi Field features two of the National League’s best early-season performers squaring off in a matchup that could preview an October showdown. The Mets, leading the NL East with a 24–14 record, enter this contest on a hot streak at home, having gone 5–1 ATS in their last six at Citi Field while displaying both pitching stability and a dynamic, top-to-bottom offensive attack. Their lineup is powered by the consistency and presence of Juan Soto, who has been a constant on-base threat, and Pete Alonso, who continues to be a menace to opposing pitchers with 5 home runs and 23 RBIs. Clay Holmes, expected to start for the Mets, has been quietly effective, limiting base runners and allowing his defense to play behind him, supported by a bullpen that has been one of the best in late-game scenarios across MLB. Meanwhile, the Cubs come into this game at 22–16 and leading the NL Central, but they’ve dropped two straight and are looking to get back on track after a somewhat bumpy 5–5 run over their last 10 games. Their offense, led by Kyle Tucker (.284 AVG, 9 HR, 31 RBI) and Ian Happ (.274 AVG), remains potent, though their production has cooled in recent matchups, contributing to a disappointing 2–5 ATS mark over their last seven games. Jameson Taillon will take the mound for Chicago, hoping to stabilize his season with a quality start against a Mets lineup that thrives on drawing deep counts and punishing mistakes.

Taillon will need to be especially sharp early, as the Mets have done a great job of jumping out to early leads and handing games over to their lockdown relievers. The Cubs’ bullpen has generally performed well, keeping them in close games and closing out tight wins, but they’ll need more from their rotation if they’re to compete at the top of the division over the long haul. Defensively, both teams are disciplined, ranking near the top of the league in fielding percentage and minimizing extra outs. Historically, the Mets have had the edge in recent matchups, covering the spread in four of the last five against the Cubs and playing with confidence when these two teams meet. This series opener could very well come down to who controls the first five innings, with both teams possessing capable bullpens and defenses that can shut things down late. With the Mets surging at home and the Cubs looking to correct recent missteps, the spotlight will be on Taillon and Holmes to set the tone. If Chicago’s bats can reignite and Taillon finds rhythm, they have the tools to pull the upset; but if Holmes cruises through the early innings and Alonso or Soto deliver at the plate, it could be another statement win for a Mets team gaining momentum by the day.