The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals will meet on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, at Busch Stadium in a game that wraps up their three-game series and pits two National League Central teams battling to escape the division’s lower ranks. Both squads have struggled out of the gate—Pittsburgh enters with a 12–21 record and St. Louis at 14–19—creating a sense of urgency as each club looks to gain traction before the season slips further from reach. For the Pirates, the story has been offensive futility, ranking near the bottom of the league in both batting average (.197) and slugging percentage (.302), which has put excessive pressure on their pitching staff to keep games within reach. Yet, despite the poor run production, Pittsburgh has been better on the road, covering the run line in 20 of their last 33 away contests, a trend that could play in their favor if the Cardinals don’t capitalize early. On the other hand, St. Louis has a .256 team batting average and .329 OBP—both ranking in the top third of the league—but they’ve been plagued by inconsistent pitching and defensive lapses that often undo their offensive work. Their pitching staff has a combined 4.31 ERA, and while they’ve had occasional strong outings, bullpen reliability and command issues have made them vulnerable late in games.

One of the key matchups to watch will be the Cardinals’ top hitters like Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Gorman against a Pirates rotation headlined by rookie Paul Skenes, who’s been a lone bright spot with a 2.39 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 37.2 innings. Skenes’ maturity and pitch sequencing have made him difficult to square up, even for experienced lineups, and he could pose serious problems for a Cardinals team that has struggled to hit elite velocity. The Pirates’ bullpen, while unheralded, has had its moments behind arms like Justin Lawrence and Tanner Rainey, but they’ve often been called upon in tight spots due to the club’s inability to create offensive separation. The Cardinals are 4–5 as moneyline favorites this year, highlighting their struggle to perform when expected to win, while Pittsburgh’s 1–6 ATS mark in their last seven games is offset by a much stronger long-term road ATS record. The total has tended to stay UNDER in recent Cardinals–Pirates matchups, a trend that aligns with the Pirates’ offensive struggles and Skenes’ presence on the mound. St. Louis will likely try to jump on Pirates pitching early and avoid getting into a late-inning grind with an unpredictable bullpen, while Pittsburgh’s path to a win likely hinges on Skenes controlling the tempo and the offense doing just enough against a hittable Cardinals staff. With both teams desperate for momentum and a series win to stabilize rocky seasons, expect a competitive game marked by tight margins, timely hitting, and the kind of gritty baseball that defines NL Central matchups in early May.