The New York Mets and the Arizona Diamondbacks face off at Chase Field on Tuesday, May 6, 2025, in what promises to be a compelling National League matchup between two teams positioned to contend but facing opposite momentums heading into the game. The Mets, with a 22–11 record, have had one of the stronger starts in baseball but arrive in Arizona on a skid, having lost four of their last five games, including a deflating doubleheader sweep at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals. Despite the recent slump, New York remains a formidable team, anchored by strong starting pitching and capable offense led by stalwarts like Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, though the latter has been inconsistent at the plate recently. The Mets’ starting pitcher for this game, Griffin Canning, has posted an impressive 2.61 ERA, though advanced indicators like his xERA (3.93) and xFIP (3.53) suggest he may be overperforming and due for some regression. On the other side, the Diamondbacks enter this matchup trending in the opposite direction with a 17–16 record and winners of seven of their last ten games. Arizona’s offensive production has been a key driver of their recent success, averaging 5.46 runs per game—third best in MLB—thanks to big contributions from players like Josh Naylor and Corbin Carroll. With Corbin Burnes sidelined, Ryne Nelson gets the nod as the starter; while his ERA sits at a bloated 5.82, his xFIP of 2.52 suggests he’s been significantly better than his traditional numbers indicate, pointing to positive regression if he can limit walks and long balls.

This pitching duel is particularly interesting given how the underlying numbers tell different stories than the surface-level ERAs. From a betting perspective, Arizona has gone 6–3 ATS over their last nine, while the total has gone OVER in four of their last six games, reflecting a recent trend of high-scoring outcomes. The Mets, despite their mini-slump, have still covered in 16 of their 29 games and have been one of the more reliable teams ATS throughout the early season. Tuesday’s matchup could be decided by whichever team is better able to execute in high-leverage situations—Arizona’s red-hot lineup against the Mets’ reliable pitching staff creates a classic strength-versus-strength showdown. The wild card will be whether the Mets’ offense can shake out of its recent funk, especially against a starter in Nelson who may be better than his numbers suggest but has struggled with consistency. This is also a test of depth and resilience for New York—can they bounce back quickly after a tough series, or will Arizona take full advantage of a team on its heels and continue their surge up the standings? Expect fireworks, especially if Chase Field plays fast, and a game that could pivot on bullpen efficiency late. Given both teams’ trajectories, this contest carries the potential to shift early season momentum for either side, setting the tone for what could be an important week in the National League.