Mets vs Diamondbacks Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (May 05)
Updated: 2025-05-03T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The New York Mets (22-11) and Arizona Diamondbacks (17-16) open a three-game series at Chase Field on Monday, May 5, 2025, at 9:40 PM ET. The Mets, leading the NL East, aim to continue their strong performance, while the Diamondbacks look to improve their standing in the NL West.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: May 05, 2025
Start Time: 9:40 PM EST
Venue: Chase Field
Diamondbacks Record: (18-16)
Mets Record: (22-13)
OPENING ODDS
NYM Moneyline: -110
ARI Moneyline: -109
NYM Spread: -1.5
ARI Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 9.5
NYM
Betting Trends
- The Mets have a 19-14 record against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in 57.6% of their games.
ARI
Betting Trends
- The Diamondbacks have a 17-16 ATS record this season, covering in 51.5% of their games.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- The Mets are favored at -116 on the moneyline, while the Diamondbacks are underdogs at -102. The over/under for the game is set at 9.5 runs.
NYM vs. ARI
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Thomas over 0.5 Total Bases.
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New York Mets vs Arizona Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 5/5/25
Arizona’s challenge will be slowing down that offensive machine without Burnes, and hoping that Nelson can provide enough length to avoid early exposure of their bullpen, which has had a heavy workload already this season. Offensively, the Diamondbacks are no slouch—averaging 5.3 runs per game and holding a team slugging percentage of .440, ranking among the league leaders in homers and extra-base hits. Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suárez have been the power duo for Arizona, combining for 19 home runs and over 40 RBIs, giving the team the ability to come back from deficits or apply early pressure if opposing pitchers miss their spots. The Diamondbacks’ team ERA of 4.52, however, tells the story of a club that’s still seeking consistent starting pitching and stability in the middle innings—something the Mets are well positioned to exploit. Both teams have posted profitable records against the spread (Mets 19-14 ATS, Diamondbacks 17-16 ATS), suggesting they’ve been competitive for bettors, though the Mets’ superior pitching and more complete lineup make them a slightly stronger play. Monday’s opener sets the tone for what could be a high-scoring and emotionally charged series, especially with both teams eager to claim an edge before heading deeper into May. With Burnes sidelined and New York riding high, the Mets will look to seize early control of this matchup, but Arizona’s offensive firepower and home-field energy could quickly turn things into a slugfest if their bats come alive early. Ultimately, this game may come down to which bullpen cracks first—or which starter manages to survive the third time through the order.
Alvy keeps it going! 👏 pic.twitter.com/wZp8GLPIwn
— New York Mets (@Mets) May 4, 2025
New York Mets Mets MLB Preview
The New York Mets enter Monday night’s series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field riding the momentum of a 22-11 start that has positioned them atop the NL East standings and cemented their status as one of the most balanced and dangerous teams in baseball through the first month of the 2025 season. Their success has been driven by a lethal combination of elite offense and dominant pitching, resulting in a 19-14 record against the spread and a team ERA of just 2.65—among the best in the majors. The lineup is anchored by slugger Pete Alonso, who is delivering an MVP-caliber campaign with a .343 average, seven home runs, and 28 RBIs, punishing pitchers for mistakes and driving in runs in high-leverage situations. Francisco Lindor has been just as vital, hitting .308 with six homers and offering consistent at-bats from the top of the order while also playing elite defense at shortstop, helping the Mets remain strong up the middle. The offensive production doesn’t stop there, as the Mets have posted a team slugging percentage of .416 and are averaging 4.8 runs per game, showing the ability to grind out wins in low-scoring duels or erupt with multi-run innings when the lineup strings hits together. Their starting rotation has been the backbone of the team’s early success, consistently delivering quality starts and reducing pressure on the bullpen, which has also held its own by closing out tight games and maintaining leads.
The Mets’ ability to dictate tempo, keep games under control, and force opponents into bullpen battles has been a key reason why they’ve succeeded against teams like Arizona that rely more on offense than pitching. With the Diamondbacks forced to scratch ace Corbin Burnes and start Ryne Nelson, who holds a 5.82 ERA mostly from relief outings, the Mets have an ideal opportunity to pounce early and force Arizona into uncomfortable bullpen territory. Though Chase Field can be a tough park for visiting teams, the Mets’ road-tested roster and disciplined offensive approach make them well-suited to succeed in any environment. They’ll look to apply pressure immediately with aggressive base running and situational hitting while leaning on their pitching staff to neutralize Arizona’s power hitters. New York enters this game as a slight -116 favorite, and that number reflects not only their superior roster depth but also the recent injury blow to the Diamondbacks rotation. For the Mets, this game is about continuing to build momentum, protecting their lead in a competitive division, and taking advantage of a banged-up opponent. If they play to their recent form—getting six strong innings from their starter, timely hits from Alonso and Lindor, and clean defense—they should be in prime position to take the series opener and extend their winning ways into the week ahead.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Preview
The Arizona Diamondbacks return home to Chase Field to open a crucial three-game series against the red-hot New York Mets on Monday, May 5, 2025, with a 17-16 record that has them hovering just above .500 and searching for a spark to reassert themselves in the NL West race. Their offense has largely kept them afloat during an up-and-down start, ranking among the National League’s best in run production and slugging thanks to a powerful middle of the order led by Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suárez. Carroll enters the series with nine home runs and 23 RBIs, showing both power and speed as a dynamic catalyst, while Suárez brings the thunder with 10 home runs already, helping Arizona average 5.3 runs per game and produce a .440 slugging percentage that ranks near the top of the league. However, the Diamondbacks’ success at the plate has not been consistently matched by their pitching staff, which enters the matchup with a 4.52 ERA—a number that highlights their inability to hold leads and navigate the heart of opposing lineups without damage. The most significant blow ahead of this series came with the late scratch of ace Corbin Burnes due to shoulder inflammation, leaving Arizona to turn to Ryne Nelson, a young right-hander who has made all of his appearances this season out of the bullpen and now carries a 1-0 record with a 5.82 ERA into his first start of 2025.
While Nelson has starting experience in past seasons, his recent workload and command issues suggest the D-backs will need to lean heavily on their bullpen, which has already been tasked with a high innings count early in the season. The team’s 17-16 ATS record shows they’ve remained competitive, but they’ve often relied on offensive outbursts to stay in games rather than pitching dominance. Defensively, Arizona has been solid but not spectacular, with some lapses in execution that have cost them extra bases and unearned runs in close contests. At home, the Diamondbacks have played energetic and aggressive baseball, using the hitter-friendly dimensions of Chase Field to their advantage with extra-base hits and pressure on the basepaths, but against a Mets squad that thrives on discipline and pitching precision, Arizona will need to be sharp in all facets. Their margin for error shrinks even further without Burnes, meaning the offense must come out firing early, ideally chasing the Mets’ starter before he settles into rhythm. As slight underdogs at -102, the Diamondbacks have the tools to pull off an upset but must execute cleanly and hope for a surprise breakout performance from Nelson to avoid an early bullpen scramble. If Carroll and Suárez can set the tone and the defense holds firm, Arizona can hang with one of the NL’s elite and potentially steal the series opener, but they’ll need to hit their stride early and avoid falling behind against a Mets team that rarely relinquishes leads.
Headed home with a win. pic.twitter.com/hOlX1pZYml
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) May 4, 2025
New York Mets vs. Arizona Prop Picks (AI)
New York Mets vs. Arizona Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over millions of data from every simulation between the Mets and Diamondbacks and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.
Interestingly enough, the data has been most watching on the linear correlation of emphasis knucklehead sportsbettors often put on coaching factors between a Mets team going up against a possibly unhealthy Diamondbacks team. It appears the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI New York Mets vs Arizona picks, computer picks Mets vs Diamondbacks, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.
Mets Betting Trends
The Mets have a 19-14 record against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in 57.6% of their games.
Diamondbacks Betting Trends
The Diamondbacks have a 17-16 ATS record this season, covering in 51.5% of their games.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks Matchup Trends
The Mets are favored at -116 on the moneyline, while the Diamondbacks are underdogs at -102. The over/under for the game is set at 9.5 runs.
New York Mets vs. Arizona Game Info
What time does New York Mets vs Arizona start on May 05, 2025?
New York Mets vs Arizona starts on May 05, 2025 at 9:40 PM EST.
Where is New York Mets vs Arizona being played?
Venue: Chase Field.
What are the opening odds for New York Mets vs Arizona?
Spread: Arizona +1.5
Moneyline: New York Mets -110, Arizona -109
Over/Under: 9.5
What are the records for New York Mets vs Arizona?
New York Mets: (22-13) | Arizona: (18-16)
What is the AI best bet for New York Mets vs Arizona?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Thomas over 0.5 Total Bases.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are New York Mets vs Arizona trending bets?
The Mets are favored at -116 on the moneyline, while the Diamondbacks are underdogs at -102. The over/under for the game is set at 9.5 runs.
What are New York Mets trending bets?
NYM trend: The Mets have a 19-14 record against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in 57.6% of their games.
What are Arizona trending bets?
ARI trend: The Diamondbacks have a 17-16 ATS record this season, covering in 51.5% of their games.
Where can I find AI Picks for New York Mets vs Arizona?
See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
New York Mets vs. Arizona Odds
Remi is pouring through mountains of stats on each player. In fact, anytime the New York Mets vs Arizona trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
New York Mets vs Arizona Opening Odds
NYM Moneyline:
-110 ARI Moneyline: -109
NYM Spread: -1.5
ARI Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 9.5
New York Mets vs Arizona Live Odds
Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U | |
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Oct 19, 2025 8:04PM EDT
Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays
10/19/25 8:04PM
Mariners
Blue Jays
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–
–
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+105
-125
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+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
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O 7.5 (-115)
U 7.5 (-105)
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MLB Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers New York Mets Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks on May 05, 2025 at Chase Field.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
TOR@SEA | OVER 7 | 54.9% | 3 | WIN |
LAD@MIL | UNDER 7.5 | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
TOR@NYY | OVER 8 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
TOR@NYY | CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED | 53.3% | 3 | WIN |
NYY@TOR | OVER 7.5 | 54.8% | 2 | WIN |
LAD@PHI | OVER 7 | 53.8% | 3 | WIN |
SD@CHC | CHC -109 | 53.8% | 3 | WIN |
SD@CHC | OVER 7.5 | 54.5% | 4 | LOSS |
SD@CHC | CHC -111 | 54.8% | 4 | LOSS |
CIN@LAD | SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES | 53.5% | 3 | WIN |
BOS@NYY | OVER 7 | 53.8% | 3 | LOSS |
CIN@LAD | ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
ARI@SD | SD -131 | 57.3% | 4 | WIN |
DET@BOS | BOS -115 | 56.4% | 5 | WIN |
NYM@CHC | NYM -110 | 54.1% | 3 | WIN |
HOU@ATH | ATH +118 | 50.8% | 4 | WIN |
NYM@CHC | OVER 7 | 54.5% | 3 | WIN |
STL@SF | OVER 7.5 | 55.9% | 5 | LOSS |
KC@LAA | TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
MIL@SD | UNDER 9 | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
MIA@PHI | KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS | 53.3% | 3 | WIN |
WAS@NYM | OVER 8.5 | 56.1% | 6 | LOSS |
LAA@COL | COL +108 | 50.5% | 3 | WIN |
TOR@KC | UNDER 9 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
SEA@KC | KC +1.5 | 62.3% | 5 | LOSS |
NYY@MIN | OVER 9 | 55.1% | 4 | WIN |
MIA@COL | OVER 10.5 | 55.0% | 4 | WIN |
MIA@COL | AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
SEA@KC | BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
PHI@LAD | LAD -113 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
NYY@BOS | OVER 7.5 | 54.3% | 3 | WIN |
KC@PHI | PHI -130 | 58.3% | 4 | WIN |
LAD@SF | OVER 7.5 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
NYM@PHI | PHI -122 | 55.6% | 4 | WIN |
KC@CLE | KC -104 | 52.0% | 3 | WIN |
CIN@SD | JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS | 53.1% | 3 | WIN |
WAS@MIA | MIA -123 | 55.2% | 4 | LOSS |
LAA@KC | UNDER 9.5 | 54.9% | 3 | WIN |
TEX@ARI | UNDER 9 | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
SF@COL | UNDER 11.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
SF@COL | RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES | 56.1% | 6 | WIN |
MIA@WAS | WAS -110 | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
NYM@DET | OVER 8.5 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
TEX@ARI | UNDER 9.5 | 56.4% | 6 | WIN |
TEX@ARI | ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
ATL@CHC | CHC -116 | 55.1% | 3 | WIN |
PHI@MIL | OVER 8.5 | 55.0% | 3 | WIN |
ARI@LAD | SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
SEA@CLE | CLE +1.5 | 57.2% | 3 | WIN |
CHC@SF | CHC -105 | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
NYY@CHW | RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES | 54.1% | 4 | WIN |