Mets vs Diamondbacks Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (May 05)

Updated: 2025-05-03T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The New York Mets (22-11) and Arizona Diamondbacks (17-16) open a three-game series at Chase Field on Monday, May 5, 2025, at 9:40 PM ET. The Mets, leading the NL East, aim to continue their strong performance, while the Diamondbacks look to improve their standing in the NL West.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 05, 2025

Start Time: 9:40 PM EST​

Venue: Chase Field​

Diamondbacks Record: (18-16)

Mets Record: (22-13)

OPENING ODDS

NYM Moneyline: -110

ARI Moneyline: -109

NYM Spread: -1.5

ARI Spread: +1.5

Over/Under: 9.5

NYM
Betting Trends

  • The Mets have a 19-14 record against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in 57.6% of their games.

ARI
Betting Trends

  • The Diamondbacks have a 17-16 ATS record this season, covering in 51.5% of their games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • The Mets are favored at -116 on the moneyline, while the Diamondbacks are underdogs at -102. The over/under for the game is set at 9.5 runs.

NYM vs. ARI
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Thomas over 0.5 Total Bases.

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New York Mets vs Arizona Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 5/5/25

The New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks begin a three-game series on Monday, May 5, 2025, at Chase Field in what promises to be a pivotal early-season clash between two National League clubs with postseason aspirations. The Mets arrive in Arizona with a 22-11 record, leading the NL East and showing impressive balance across their lineup and pitching staff, while the Diamondbacks sit at 17-16, hovering just above .500 and looking to find consistency in a crowded NL West. New York enters the series as a slight -116 moneyline favorite, with the over/under set at 9.5 runs, a reflection of both teams’ offensive capabilities and Arizona’s recent pitching uncertainties. One of the biggest headlines entering this matchup is the late scratch of Corbin Burnes, the Diamondbacks’ ace, due to shoulder inflammation, forcing Ryne Nelson into a starting role; Nelson brings a 1-0 record but a 5.82 ERA, primarily from bullpen work, and now faces a tough challenge against a Mets lineup that leads the league in situational hitting and slugging percentage efficiency. The Mets’ offense is led by Pete Alonso, who continues to rake with a .343 average, seven homers, and 28 RBIs, while Francisco Lindor has added both power and consistency, batting .308 with six homers of his own. Their overall offensive profile—4.8 runs per game, .416 team slugging percentage—has made them dangerous against both right- and left-handed pitching. Complementing their potent lineup is a pitching staff that ranks among MLB’s best, posting a collective 2.65 ERA and consistently giving the bullpen favorable game states to close out tight contests.

Arizona’s challenge will be slowing down that offensive machine without Burnes, and hoping that Nelson can provide enough length to avoid early exposure of their bullpen, which has had a heavy workload already this season. Offensively, the Diamondbacks are no slouch—averaging 5.3 runs per game and holding a team slugging percentage of .440, ranking among the league leaders in homers and extra-base hits. Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suárez have been the power duo for Arizona, combining for 19 home runs and over 40 RBIs, giving the team the ability to come back from deficits or apply early pressure if opposing pitchers miss their spots. The Diamondbacks’ team ERA of 4.52, however, tells the story of a club that’s still seeking consistent starting pitching and stability in the middle innings—something the Mets are well positioned to exploit. Both teams have posted profitable records against the spread (Mets 19-14 ATS, Diamondbacks 17-16 ATS), suggesting they’ve been competitive for bettors, though the Mets’ superior pitching and more complete lineup make them a slightly stronger play. Monday’s opener sets the tone for what could be a high-scoring and emotionally charged series, especially with both teams eager to claim an edge before heading deeper into May. With Burnes sidelined and New York riding high, the Mets will look to seize early control of this matchup, but Arizona’s offensive firepower and home-field energy could quickly turn things into a slugfest if their bats come alive early. Ultimately, this game may come down to which bullpen cracks first—or which starter manages to survive the third time through the order.

New York Mets Mets MLB Preview

The New York Mets enter Monday night’s series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field riding the momentum of a 22-11 start that has positioned them atop the NL East standings and cemented their status as one of the most balanced and dangerous teams in baseball through the first month of the 2025 season. Their success has been driven by a lethal combination of elite offense and dominant pitching, resulting in a 19-14 record against the spread and a team ERA of just 2.65—among the best in the majors. The lineup is anchored by slugger Pete Alonso, who is delivering an MVP-caliber campaign with a .343 average, seven home runs, and 28 RBIs, punishing pitchers for mistakes and driving in runs in high-leverage situations. Francisco Lindor has been just as vital, hitting .308 with six homers and offering consistent at-bats from the top of the order while also playing elite defense at shortstop, helping the Mets remain strong up the middle. The offensive production doesn’t stop there, as the Mets have posted a team slugging percentage of .416 and are averaging 4.8 runs per game, showing the ability to grind out wins in low-scoring duels or erupt with multi-run innings when the lineup strings hits together. Their starting rotation has been the backbone of the team’s early success, consistently delivering quality starts and reducing pressure on the bullpen, which has also held its own by closing out tight games and maintaining leads.

The Mets’ ability to dictate tempo, keep games under control, and force opponents into bullpen battles has been a key reason why they’ve succeeded against teams like Arizona that rely more on offense than pitching. With the Diamondbacks forced to scratch ace Corbin Burnes and start Ryne Nelson, who holds a 5.82 ERA mostly from relief outings, the Mets have an ideal opportunity to pounce early and force Arizona into uncomfortable bullpen territory. Though Chase Field can be a tough park for visiting teams, the Mets’ road-tested roster and disciplined offensive approach make them well-suited to succeed in any environment. They’ll look to apply pressure immediately with aggressive base running and situational hitting while leaning on their pitching staff to neutralize Arizona’s power hitters. New York enters this game as a slight -116 favorite, and that number reflects not only their superior roster depth but also the recent injury blow to the Diamondbacks rotation. For the Mets, this game is about continuing to build momentum, protecting their lead in a competitive division, and taking advantage of a banged-up opponent. If they play to their recent form—getting six strong innings from their starter, timely hits from Alonso and Lindor, and clean defense—they should be in prime position to take the series opener and extend their winning ways into the week ahead.

The New York Mets (22-11) and Arizona Diamondbacks (17-16) open a three-game series at Chase Field on Monday, May 5, 2025, at 9:40 PM ET. The Mets, leading the NL East, aim to continue their strong performance, while the Diamondbacks look to improve their standing in the NL West. New York Mets vs Arizona AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for May 05. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks return home to Chase Field to open a crucial three-game series against the red-hot New York Mets on Monday, May 5, 2025, with a 17-16 record that has them hovering just above .500 and searching for a spark to reassert themselves in the NL West race. Their offense has largely kept them afloat during an up-and-down start, ranking among the National League’s best in run production and slugging thanks to a powerful middle of the order led by Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suárez. Carroll enters the series with nine home runs and 23 RBIs, showing both power and speed as a dynamic catalyst, while Suárez brings the thunder with 10 home runs already, helping Arizona average 5.3 runs per game and produce a .440 slugging percentage that ranks near the top of the league. However, the Diamondbacks’ success at the plate has not been consistently matched by their pitching staff, which enters the matchup with a 4.52 ERA—a number that highlights their inability to hold leads and navigate the heart of opposing lineups without damage. The most significant blow ahead of this series came with the late scratch of ace Corbin Burnes due to shoulder inflammation, leaving Arizona to turn to Ryne Nelson, a young right-hander who has made all of his appearances this season out of the bullpen and now carries a 1-0 record with a 5.82 ERA into his first start of 2025.

While Nelson has starting experience in past seasons, his recent workload and command issues suggest the D-backs will need to lean heavily on their bullpen, which has already been tasked with a high innings count early in the season. The team’s 17-16 ATS record shows they’ve remained competitive, but they’ve often relied on offensive outbursts to stay in games rather than pitching dominance. Defensively, Arizona has been solid but not spectacular, with some lapses in execution that have cost them extra bases and unearned runs in close contests. At home, the Diamondbacks have played energetic and aggressive baseball, using the hitter-friendly dimensions of Chase Field to their advantage with extra-base hits and pressure on the basepaths, but against a Mets squad that thrives on discipline and pitching precision, Arizona will need to be sharp in all facets. Their margin for error shrinks even further without Burnes, meaning the offense must come out firing early, ideally chasing the Mets’ starter before he settles into rhythm. As slight underdogs at -102, the Diamondbacks have the tools to pull off an upset but must execute cleanly and hope for a surprise breakout performance from Nelson to avoid an early bullpen scramble. If Carroll and Suárez can set the tone and the defense holds firm, Arizona can hang with one of the NL’s elite and potentially steal the series opener, but they’ll need to hit their stride early and avoid falling behind against a Mets team that rarely relinquishes leads.

New York Mets vs. Arizona Prop Picks (AI)

Remi is pouring through mountains of datapoints on each team. In fact, anytime the Mets and Diamondbacks play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Chase Field in May almost always follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Thomas over 0.5 Total Bases.

New York Mets vs. Arizona Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over millions of data from every simulation between the Mets and Diamondbacks and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.

Interestingly enough, the data has been most watching on the linear correlation of emphasis knucklehead sportsbettors often put on coaching factors between a Mets team going up against a possibly unhealthy Diamondbacks team. It appears the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI New York Mets vs Arizona picks, computer picks Mets vs Diamondbacks, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.

Mets Betting Trends

The Mets have a 19-14 record against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in 57.6% of their games.

Diamondbacks Betting Trends

The Diamondbacks have a 17-16 ATS record this season, covering in 51.5% of their games.

Mets vs. Diamondbacks Matchup Trends

The Mets are favored at -116 on the moneyline, while the Diamondbacks are underdogs at -102. The over/under for the game is set at 9.5 runs.

New York Mets vs. Arizona Game Info

New York Mets vs Arizona starts on May 05, 2025 at 9:40 PM EST.

Spread: Arizona +1.5
Moneyline: New York Mets -110, Arizona -109
Over/Under: 9.5

New York Mets: (22-13)  |  Arizona: (18-16)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Thomas over 0.5 Total Bases.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

The Mets are favored at -116 on the moneyline, while the Diamondbacks are underdogs at -102. The over/under for the game is set at 9.5 runs.

NYM trend: The Mets have a 19-14 record against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in 57.6% of their games.

ARI trend: The Diamondbacks have a 17-16 ATS record this season, covering in 51.5% of their games.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

New York Mets vs. Arizona Odds

Remi is pouring through mountains of stats on each player. In fact, anytime the New York Mets vs Arizona trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude can often follow normal, predictable patterns.

New York Mets vs Arizona Opening Odds

NYM Moneyline: -110
ARI Moneyline: -109
NYM Spread: -1.5
ARI Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 9.5

New York Mets vs Arizona Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 19, 2025 8:04PM EDT
Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays
10/19/25 8:04PM
Mariners
Blue Jays
+105
-125
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
O 7.5 (-115)
U 7.5 (-105)

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers New York Mets Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks on May 05, 2025 at Chase Field.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
TOR@SEA OVER 7 54.9% 3 WIN
LAD@MIL UNDER 7.5 56.6% 6 WIN
TOR@NYY OVER 8 54.9% 4 WIN
TOR@NYY CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED 53.3% 3 WIN
NYY@TOR OVER 7.5 54.8% 2 WIN
LAD@PHI OVER 7 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC CHC -109 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC OVER 7.5 54.5% 4 LOSS
SD@CHC CHC -111 54.8% 4 LOSS
CIN@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES 53.5% 3 WIN
BOS@NYY OVER 7 53.8% 3 LOSS
CIN@LAD ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES 54.4% 4 LOSS
ARI@SD SD -131 57.3% 4 WIN
DET@BOS BOS -115 56.4% 5 WIN
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN
CHC@SF CHC -105 54.1% 4 LOSS
NYY@CHW RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES 54.1% 4 WIN