Rays vs. Yankees
Prediction, Odds & Props
May 04 | MLB AI Picks

Updated: 2025-05-02T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Tampa Bay Rays (15-18) and New York Yankees (19-14) will conclude their three-game series at Yankee Stadium on Sunday, May 4, 2025. The Yankees aim to secure the series win, while the Rays look to bounce back and even the series.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 04, 2025

Start Time: 1:35 PM EST​

Venue: Yankee Stadium​

Yankees Record: (19-14)

Rays Record: (15-18)

OPENING ODDS

TB Moneyline: +155

NYY Moneyline: -187

TB Spread: +1.5

NYY Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 9

TB
Betting Trends

  • The Rays have a 15-18 record against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in 45.5% of their games. They have struggled on the road, with a 5-5 ATS record in away games.

NYY
Betting Trends

  • The Yankees hold a 19-14 ATS record this season, covering in 57.6% of their games. At home, they have been more consistent, with an 11-5 ATS record.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • In their last five matchups, the Yankees have covered the spread in four games against the Rays. The total has gone under in three of those five games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring contests.

TB vs. NYY
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Judge over 1.5 Total Bases.

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Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 5/4/25

The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays wrap up their three-game weekend series on Sunday, May 4, 2025, at Yankee Stadium in what promises to be a pivotal early-season clash between AL East rivals. The Yankees, sitting at 19-14, have shown signs of steady progress in their lineup depth and pitching rotation despite early injuries, and they aim to secure the series win on home turf after splitting the first two games. Tampa Bay, at 15-18, continues to search for consistency both at the plate and on the mound, entering this game with pressure to avoid another series loss within the division. The pitching matchup features Yankees right-hander Will Warren (1-1, 5.63 ERA), a young arm still looking to establish himself in the rotation, versus Rays righty Taj Bradley (2-2, 4.58 ERA), who has flashed promise but also shown vulnerability when pitching away from Tropicana Field. Both starters will be under scrutiny—Warren for command and efficiency, Bradley for his ability to navigate a dangerous Yankees lineup. Offensively, New York has been led by Aaron Judge’s power and presence, while Ben Rice has quietly become a reliable bat, giving the lineup a more balanced threat.

The Yankees have capitalized on timely hitting and solid bullpen work, with reliable late-inning arms like Clay Holmes and Jonathan Loáisiga helping secure close wins. On the other side, Tampa Bay’s offense has struggled with consistency, though Christopher Morel has provided a spark with his production on the road. The Rays’ bullpen, long considered a team strength, has been uneven this season, putting more pressure on starters to go deeper into games. Defensively, both teams have been efficient, with the Yankees showing a slight edge in run prevention thanks to strong up-the-middle play. What makes this game particularly intriguing is the contrast in momentum and approach: the Yankees are starting to look like a team poised to contend in the division, while the Rays are trying to recalibrate and prevent their season from slipping too far under .500. A win for New York would not only secure the series but offer a key divisional boost and set a confident tone heading into the next week, while Tampa Bay desperately needs the victory to halt recent slide and regain footing in the AL East race. With solid pitching on the mound, a high-stakes divisional backdrop, and key offensive threats on both sides, this Sunday afternoon finale could set the stage for deeper implications as the season progresses. Whether it’s another show of Bronx Bombers’ dominance or a resilient pushback from the Rays, fans can expect a competitive and potentially tightly contested rubber match in the Bronx.

Tampa Bay Rays MLB Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays enter Sunday’s finale at Yankee Stadium with a pressing need to stabilize their season and secure a win that could halt a frustrating trend of inconsistency. At 15-18, the Rays find themselves below .500 and already facing pressure in a hyper-competitive American League East, where every divisional series carries extra weight. While their pitching staff has long been the backbone of the franchise’s identity, early injuries, bullpen fatigue, and underperformance from the rotation have contributed to a rocky start. Sunday’s starter, Taj Bradley, takes the mound looking to build on flashes of brilliance he’s shown this season. Carrying a 2-2 record and 4.58 ERA into the contest, Bradley has demonstrated swing-and-miss potential with his fastball-slider combination, but he’s struggled with command at times and will need to stay ahead in counts to neutralize a Yankees lineup that punishes mistakes. The Rays’ offense, meanwhile, has yet to find its groove, ranking near the bottom of the AL in runs scored and struggling to generate consistent pressure on opposing pitchers. Christopher Morel has been a bright spot, particularly on the road, where his approach at the plate has helped ignite rallies, and his ability to hit for power in clutch moments gives Tampa a much-needed spark. However, the supporting cast—Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, and Yandy Díaz—must step up and deliver more sustained offensive production if the team hopes to compete against teams with deeper, more balanced lineups like the Yankees.

The Rays’ bullpen, typically a strength, has shown signs of wear with high-leverage arms like Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks being pushed early and often due to short outings by the starters. This has exposed a lack of depth and placed more pressure on the offense to provide early leads, something that has not materialized often this season. Defensively, Tampa Bay continues to be solid, with sound fundamentals and strong infield play helping limit damage and prevent extended innings, but their margin for error has been thin. On the road, the Rays are 5-5, reflecting a team that has been average away from Tropicana Field but capable of gritty performances when needed. Manager Kevin Cash remains a steadying presence, known for his strategic bullpen usage and defensive alignments, but even his managerial savvy is being tested in this uneven stretch. To come away with a win on Sunday, the Rays must get an efficient, composed start from Bradley, execute in situational hitting opportunities, and avoid the kind of defensive lapses that have cost them in prior games. Against a Yankees squad gaining confidence at home, the challenge is steep, but Tampa Bay has historically embraced the role of underdog. A win here won’t fix their early-season woes, but it would serve as a statement that the Rays aren’t ready to fade and can still fight toe-to-toe with their division rivals when it matters most.

The Tampa Bay Rays (15-18) and New York Yankees (19-14) will conclude their three-game series at Yankee Stadium on Sunday, May 4, 2025. The Yankees aim to secure the series win, while the Rays look to bounce back and even the series. Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for May 04. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

New York Yankees Yankees MLB Preview

The New York Yankees enter Sunday’s series finale against the Tampa Bay Rays with a strong opportunity to secure a series win and continue building momentum in the American League East. Sporting a 19-14 record, including an impressive 11-5 mark at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees have played inspired baseball despite early-season injuries and lineup adjustments. Their offensive identity continues to center around the power and presence of Aaron Judge, who has started to heat up after a quiet start, providing both leadership and production in the heart of the order. Emerging alongside him has been rookie Ben Rice, whose consistent contact hitting and surprising power have added a welcome jolt to a lineup that has too often relied on the long ball. Giancarlo Stanton, when healthy, adds another layer of danger, while Gleyber Torres and Anthony Volpe contribute valuable versatility and speed on the basepaths. On the mound, Will Warren will get the start, and while his 5.63 ERA may raise eyebrows, the right-hander has shown flashes of potential and has worked to improve his pitch sequencing and composure in tight spots. Warren doesn’t need to be overpowering to succeed against the Rays—he simply needs to limit walks, trust the defense behind him, and give the Yankees five or six solid innings to set up the bullpen.

That bullpen, led by closer Clay Holmes and supported by key arms like Jonathan Loáisiga and Ian Hamilton, has been reliable and often dominant, particularly in holding leads in the later innings. Defensively, New York has been one of the sharper teams in the league, minimizing errors and turning in timely plays that have stifled potential rallies. The Yankees have also excelled in capitalizing on scoring opportunities at home, where their offense seems more comfortable and aggressive, often putting pressure on opposing pitchers early in counts. With manager Aaron Boone at the helm, the team has shown a steady, composed approach, rarely panicking and often thriving in close-game situations. Sunday’s matchup gives the Yankees a chance to assert dominance not just in the series, but in the larger divisional race, especially as they look to build momentum heading into tougher stretches of their schedule. The key will be getting a solid start from Warren, timely hitting from the core bats, and continued excellence from a bullpen that’s quietly become one of the best in baseball. If they can execute on those fronts, the Yankees are in prime position to not only win the series, but send a message to a struggling Rays team that Yankee Stadium remains one of the toughest places to steal a win.

Tampa Bay vs. New York Yankees Prop Picks (AI)

Remi is pouring through loads of datapoints on each team. In fact, anytime the Rays and Yankees play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Yankee Stadium in May almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Judge over 1.5 Total Bases.

Tampa Bay vs. New York Yankees Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over tons of data from every angle between the Rays and Yankees and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.

Interestingly enough, the data has been most keyed in on the unproportionally assigned factor knucklehead sportsbettors often put on coaching factors between a Rays team going up against a possibly tired Yankees team. Trends look to say the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees picks, computer picks Rays vs Yankees, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
MLB 9/26 DET@BOS UNLOCK THIS PICK 5 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
MLB 9/26 BAL@NYY UNLOCK THIS PICK 4 INTEL Locked INTEL
MLB 9/26 ARI@SD UNLOCK THIS PICK 4 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
MLB 9/26 NYM@MIA UNLOCK THIS PICK 1 INTEL Locked INTEL
MLB 9/26 NYM@MIA GET FREE PICK NOW 1
MLB 9/26 COL@SF UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.

Rays Betting Trends

The Rays have a 15-18 record against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in 45.5% of their games. They have struggled on the road, with a 5-5 ATS record in away games.

Yankees Betting Trends

The Yankees hold a 19-14 ATS record this season, covering in 57.6% of their games. At home, they have been more consistent, with an 11-5 ATS record.

Rays vs. Yankees Matchup Trends

In their last five matchups, the Yankees have covered the spread in four games against the Rays. The total has gone under in three of those five games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring contests.

Tampa Bay vs. New York Yankees Game Info

Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees starts on May 04, 2025 at 1:35 PM EST.

Spread: New York Yankees -1.5
Moneyline: Tampa Bay +155, New York Yankees -187
Over/Under: 9

Tampa Bay: (15-18)  |  New York Yankees: (19-14)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Judge over 1.5 Total Bases.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

In their last five matchups, the Yankees have covered the spread in four games against the Rays. The total has gone under in three of those five games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring contests.

TB trend: The Rays have a 15-18 record against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in 45.5% of their games. They have struggled on the road, with a 5-5 ATS record in away games.

NYY trend: The Yankees hold a 19-14 ATS record this season, covering in 57.6% of their games. At home, they have been more consistent, with an 11-5 ATS record.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Tampa Bay vs. New York Yankees Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of data points on each player. In fact, anytime the Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme hostile environments rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.

Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees Opening Odds

TB Moneyline: +155
NYY Moneyline: -187
TB Spread: +1.5
NYY Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 9

Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Sep 27, 2025 1:06PM EDT
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
9/27/25 1:06PM
Orioles
Yankees
+190
-235
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
O 8.5 (-120)
U 8.5 (+100)
Sep 27, 2025 2:21PM EDT
St Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
9/27/25 2:21PM
Cardinals
Cubs
 
-175
 
-1.5 (+115)
O 9.5 (-105)
U 9.5 (-115)
Sep 27, 2025 3:09PM EDT
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
9/27/25 3:09PM
Rays
Blue Jays
+130
-155
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+130)
O 8.5 (-110)
U 8.5 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Chicago White Sox
Washington Nationals
9/27/25 4:06PM
White Sox
Nationals
+100
-120
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-200)
O 8.5 (-110)
U 8.5 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
9/27/25 4:06PM
Rockies
Giants
+185
-225
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
O 8 (-105)
U 8 (-115)
Sep 27, 2025 4:11PM EDT
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
9/27/25 4:11PM
Mets
Marlins
-130
+110
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-150)
O 8.5 (-105)
U 8.5 (-115)
Sep 27, 2025 6:05PM EDT
Minnesota Twins
Philadelphia Phillies
9/27/25 6:05PM
Twins
Phillies
+170
-205
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (+100)
O 8.5 (-115)
U 8.5 (-105)
Sep 27, 2025 7:11PM EDT
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
9/27/25 7:11PM
Reds
Brewers
+125
-150
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+150)
O 8 (-105)
U 8 (-115)
Sep 27, 2025 7:15PM EDT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Atlanta Braves
9/27/25 7:15PM
Pirates
Braves
+140
-170
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+130)
O 8 (-110)
U 8 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 7:16PM EDT
Texas Rangers
Cleveland Guardians
9/27/25 7:16PM
Rangers
Guardians
+135
-165
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+150)
O 7 (-120)
U 7 (+100)
Sep 27, 2025 8:40PM EDT
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
9/27/25 8:40PM
Diamondbacks
Padres
+115
-140
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
O 7.5 (-120)
U 7.5 (+100)
Sep 27, 2025 9:39PM EDT
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
9/27/25 9:39PM
Astros
Angels
-165
+135
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-125)
O 9 (+100)
U 9 (-120)
Sep 27, 2025 9:41PM EDT
Los Angeles Dodgers
Seattle Mariners
9/27/25 9:41PM
Dodgers
Mariners
+100
-120
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-205)
O 7.5 (-110)
U 7.5 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 10:05PM EDT
Kansas City Royals
Oakland Athletics
9/27/25 10:05PM
Royals
Athletics
+100
-120
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-180)
O 10 (-110)
U 10 (-110)

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Yankees on May 04, 2025 at Yankee Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN
CHC@SF CHC -105 54.1% 4 LOSS
NYY@CHW RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES 54.1% 4 WIN
PHI@NYM OVER 8.5 55.6% 4 LOSS
LAA@TEX LOGAN OHOPPE OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.1% 4 LOSS
KC@CHW KC -109 54.2% 4 WIN
SD@SEA DYLAN CEASE OVER 16.5 OUTS 53.9% 3 LOSS
SD@SEA UNDER 8.5 54.4% 4 LOSS
MIN@TOR JOE RYAN UNDER 2.5 EARNED RUNS 54.1% 4 LOSS
SF@MIL MIL +100 54.0% 6 LOSS
TOR@MIA MIA +1.5 62.0% 6 WIN
CHC@LAA OVER 9.5 54.9% 4 LOSS
BOS@NYY CARLOS RODON UNDER 4.5 HITS ALLOWED 54.2% 4 WIN
KC@DET DET -115 56.1% 5 WIN
CHC@LAA LAA +1.5 57.6% 5 LOSS
CIN@ARI KEBRYAN HAYES STRIKEOUTS UNDER 0.5 56.2% 6 WIN
LAD@SD SD +110 50.9% 6 WIN