Padres vs. Pirates
Prediction, Odds & Props
May 04 | MLB AI Picks

Updated: 2025-05-02T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The San Diego Padres (21-11) and Pittsburgh Pirates (12-22) conclude their three-game series at PNC Park on Sunday, May 4, 2025, with first pitch scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. The Padres aim to complete a sweep, while the Pirates look to salvage the final game of the series.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 04, 2025

Start Time: 1:35 PM EST​

Venue: PNC Park​

Pirates Record: (12-22)

Padres Record: (21-11)

OPENING ODDS

SD Moneyline: -104

PIT Moneyline: -115

SD Spread: -1.5

PIT Spread: +1.5

Over/Under: 8.5

SD
Betting Trends

  • The Padres have covered the run line in 19 of their 32 games this season, translating to a 59.4% success rate. As favorites, they have covered in 11 of 17 games, a 64.7% rate.

PIT
Betting Trends

  • The Pirates have covered the run line in 13 of their 34 games this season, a 38.2% success rate. As underdogs, they have covered in 9 of 21 games, a 42.9% rate.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • In their last five head-to-head matchups, the Padres have covered the run line in four games. Additionally, the total has gone under in three of those five games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring contests.

SD vs. PIT
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: O. Cruz over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI.

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San Diego vs Pittsburgh Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 5/4/25

The San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates conclude their three-game weekend set at PNC Park on Sunday, May 4, 2025, with the Padres seeking a sweep and the Pirates looking to avoid an extended slide. The Padres have surged to a 21-11 record behind a high-powered offense and steady pitching, while the Pirates have struggled to gain traction, falling to 12-22 and grappling with consistency issues across the board. On the mound, San Diego sends right-hander Stephen Kolek, a promising young arm still looking for his first decision this season after a handful of effective but short outings. He’ll face off against left-hander Andrew Heaney, who has been one of Pittsburgh’s few bright spots in the rotation with a 2-2 record and an impressive 2.50 ERA, managing to neutralize opposing lineups despite limited run support. The offensive edge clearly favors the Padres, who are led by the red-hot Fernando Tatis Jr., batting .342 with eight home runs and 18 RBIs, and backed by veteran sluggers Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, both of whom provide proven postseason pedigree and in-game intelligence. This lineup has consistently applied pressure to opposing pitching with aggressive baserunning, timely hitting, and the ability to manufacture runs even when the long ball isn’t flying.

Meanwhile, the Pirates continue to rely heavily on Oneil Cruz for offensive production; the towering shortstop has matched Tatis with eight homers and 18 RBIs, but the rest of the lineup has lagged behind, with only Isiah Kiner-Falefa (.280 AVG) offering consistent contact. Pittsburgh’s struggles aren’t limited to hitting—they’ve also been hurt by a bullpen that has failed to protect leads, often surrendering momentum late in games, which has compounded pressure on the rotation to go deeper than ideal. In contrast, San Diego’s bullpen has quietly emerged as one of the league’s most reliable units, allowing manager Mike Shildt to mix and match in high-leverage situations and preserve slim leads. Defensively, the Padres have been sharp, with Tatis, Ha-Seong Kim, and Jake Cronenworth forming a slick infield that has limited extra outs and supported the pitching staff effectively. For the Pirates, defensive lapses have led to costly innings, and until they clean up the fundamentals, it will be difficult to stay competitive against upper-tier opponents. The Padres have also been strong against the run line, especially when favored, covering in 11 of 17 games in that role. If Kolek can navigate the Pirates’ left-handed bats and give the bullpen a manageable bridge, the Padres are well-positioned to sweep the series and head into their next set with momentum. Pittsburgh will need a strong outing from Heaney, timely production from the heart of the order, and a clean defensive effort if they hope to stop the Padres’ roll and claw back some confidence in what’s already shaping up to be a challenging season in the NL Central.

San Diego Padres MLB Preview

The San Diego Padres come into Sunday’s series finale against the Pittsburgh Pirates riding high with a 21-11 record, a firm grip on momentum, and an opportunity to complete a clean sweep on the road. With one of the most balanced rosters in the National League, the Padres have built their early-season success on a potent mix of dynamic offense, strong defense, and a quietly efficient bullpen. Leading the charge is Fernando Tatis Jr., who has reestablished himself as one of the most dangerous hitters in the game with a .342 batting average, eight home runs, and 18 RBIs. His blend of power, speed, and elite defense in the outfield has been transformative for San Diego, giving them a spark at the top of the lineup and on the basepaths. Backing him are proven veterans Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, whose presence in the lineup adds layers of difficulty for opposing pitchers. Machado’s ability to hit in the clutch and Bogaerts’ consistent approach have created a top-heavy order that can produce runs in bunches, especially when paired with complementary pieces like Jake Cronenworth and Luis Campusano. On the mound, Stephen Kolek will make a key start, still searching for his first win but flashing high-end potential in limited action so far. Kolek has worked mostly in shorter stints, showcasing a lively fastball and solid secondary offerings, and this outing could be pivotal in determining his role moving forward in the rotation.

The Padres’ bullpen has been among the best in baseball, with closer Robert Suarez and setup arms like Yuki Matsui and Wandy Peralta routinely shutting down opponents in the late innings. Their ability to shorten games and protect leads has made them a tough out even in low-scoring affairs. Defensively, San Diego has been excellent, ranking near the top of the league in fielding percentage and run prevention thanks to the athleticism and instincts of Tatis, Kim, and Machado in the field. This defensive solidity has complemented their pitching staff, giving them more margin for error and turning potential rallies into harmless innings. The Padres have also excelled in situational hitting, frequently cashing in runners in scoring position and executing small-ball strategies when necessary to scratch across key runs. On the road, they’ve remained disciplined and aggressive, displaying the focus of a team that expects to contend deep into October. Sunday’s matchup gives them another chance to showcase their depth and capitalize on a Pirates team that has struggled both offensively and in the bullpen. If Kolek can provide four to five quality innings and the offense continues to apply early pressure on Andrew Heaney, the Padres are well-positioned to close out the series with a win and continue their steady march near the top of the NL West. With confidence soaring and contributions coming from every corner of the roster, San Diego looks every bit like a team ready to turn early-season momentum into long-term dominance.

The San Diego Padres (21-11) and Pittsburgh Pirates (12-22) conclude their three-game series at PNC Park on Sunday, May 4, 2025, with first pitch scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. The Padres aim to complete a sweep, while the Pirates look to salvage the final game of the series. San Diego vs Pittsburgh AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for May 04. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates enter Sunday’s series finale against the San Diego Padres with a 12-22 record and a sense of growing urgency as they attempt to salvage one game from what has been a frustrating weekend at PNC Park. Despite the promising start to the year from a few individual players, the team overall has struggled to put together consistent performances in any one phase—offense, starting pitching, or relief. The offense has been largely powered by shortstop Oneil Cruz, who leads the team with eight home runs and 18 RBIs, bringing game-changing power and energy to a lineup that has otherwise lacked depth and sustained production. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been the team’s most reliable bat in terms of average, hitting .280, but the Pirates have yet to see breakout stretches from expected contributors like Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes, who have hovered below expectations through the first month of the season. A key issue has been the inability to hit with runners in scoring position, as the Pirates often create chances but fail to convert them into runs. On the mound, Pittsburgh will turn to left-hander Andrew Heaney, one of the few consistent arms in the rotation. Heaney, with a 2-2 record and a sharp 2.50 ERA, has managed to keep opposing lineups off balance by mixing a high-spin fastball with an effective slider and changeup, but his margin for error will be razor-thin against a dangerous San Diego offense. Heaney’s ability to work ahead in the count and pitch deep into the game will be critical, especially given the Pirates’ unreliable bullpen.

The relief corps has routinely faltered in close games, with late-inning leads slipping away due to command issues and lack of a defined closer. Defensively, Pittsburgh has been solid but not flawless—fielding breakdowns have led to extended innings that compound the pressure on an already taxed pitching staff. The team has tried various lineup combinations to spark offensive momentum, but so far the results have been mixed, and it’s clear that the Pirates are still searching for a consistent identity. Manager Derek Shelton has emphasized patience and process, but the team’s recent results have started to sap confidence, particularly as divisional rivals gain ground. With a sweep at stake, the Pirates will need a complete effort—strong starting pitching from Heaney, timely hitting from the middle of the order, and error-free defense—to break out of their current rut. A win wouldn’t just halt a losing streak; it could offer a morale boost to a young, talented roster trying to find its footing amid a rough start to the 2025 season. Playing at home in front of a supportive crowd, Sunday represents both a chance for redemption and a critical test of resilience for a Pirates team that desperately needs to turn potential into production.

San Diego vs. Pittsburgh Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of datapoints on each player. In fact, anytime the Padres and Pirates play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at PNC Park in May can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: O. Cruz over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI.

San Diego vs. Pittsburgh Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over millions of data from every simulation between the Padres and Pirates and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.

The Algorithm has been most keyed in on the unproportionally assigned emphasis emotional bettors tend to put on coaching factors between a Padres team going up against a possibly strong Pirates team. Trends look to say the true game analytics appear to reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI San Diego vs Pittsburgh picks, computer picks Padres vs Pirates, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
MLB 9/26 DET@BOS UNLOCK THIS PICK 5 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
MLB 9/26 BAL@NYY UNLOCK THIS PICK 4 INTEL Locked INTEL
MLB 9/26 ARI@SD UNLOCK THIS PICK 4 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
MLB 9/26 NYM@MIA UNLOCK THIS PICK 1 INTEL Locked INTEL
MLB 9/26 NYM@MIA GET FREE PICK NOW 1
MLB 9/26 COL@SF UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.

Padres Betting Trends

The Padres have covered the run line in 19 of their 32 games this season, translating to a 59.4% success rate. As favorites, they have covered in 11 of 17 games, a 64.7% rate.

Pirates Betting Trends

The Pirates have covered the run line in 13 of their 34 games this season, a 38.2% success rate. As underdogs, they have covered in 9 of 21 games, a 42.9% rate.

Padres vs. Pirates Matchup Trends

In their last five head-to-head matchups, the Padres have covered the run line in four games. Additionally, the total has gone under in three of those five games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring contests.

San Diego vs. Pittsburgh Game Info

San Diego vs Pittsburgh starts on May 04, 2025 at 1:35 PM EST.

Spread: Pittsburgh +1.5
Moneyline: San Diego -104, Pittsburgh -115
Over/Under: 8.5

San Diego: (21-11)  |  Pittsburgh: (12-22)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: O. Cruz over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

In their last five head-to-head matchups, the Padres have covered the run line in four games. Additionally, the total has gone under in three of those five games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring contests.

SD trend: The Padres have covered the run line in 19 of their 32 games this season, translating to a 59.4% success rate. As favorites, they have covered in 11 of 17 games, a 64.7% rate.

PIT trend: The Pirates have covered the run line in 13 of their 34 games this season, a 38.2% success rate. As underdogs, they have covered in 9 of 21 games, a 42.9% rate.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

San Diego vs. Pittsburgh Odds

Remi is pouring through loads of data on each team. In fact, anytime the San Diego vs Pittsburgh trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.

San Diego vs Pittsburgh Opening Odds

SD Moneyline: -104
PIT Moneyline: -115
SD Spread: -1.5
PIT Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 8.5

San Diego vs Pittsburgh Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Sep 27, 2025 1:06PM EDT
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
9/27/25 1:06PM
Orioles
Yankees
+190
-235
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
O 8.5 (-120)
U 8.5 (+100)
Sep 27, 2025 2:21PM EDT
St Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
9/27/25 2:21PM
Cardinals
Cubs
 
-175
 
-1.5 (+115)
O 9.5 (-105)
U 9.5 (-115)
Sep 27, 2025 3:09PM EDT
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
9/27/25 3:09PM
Rays
Blue Jays
+130
-155
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+130)
O 8.5 (-110)
U 8.5 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Chicago White Sox
Washington Nationals
9/27/25 4:06PM
White Sox
Nationals
+100
-120
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-200)
O 8.5 (-110)
U 8.5 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
9/27/25 4:06PM
Rockies
Giants
+185
-225
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
O 8 (-105)
U 8 (-115)
Sep 27, 2025 4:11PM EDT
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
9/27/25 4:11PM
Mets
Marlins
-130
+110
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-150)
O 8.5 (-105)
U 8.5 (-115)
Sep 27, 2025 6:05PM EDT
Minnesota Twins
Philadelphia Phillies
9/27/25 6:05PM
Twins
Phillies
+170
-205
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (+100)
O 8.5 (-115)
U 8.5 (-105)
Sep 27, 2025 7:11PM EDT
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
9/27/25 7:11PM
Reds
Brewers
+125
-150
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+150)
O 8 (-105)
U 8 (-115)
Sep 27, 2025 7:15PM EDT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Atlanta Braves
9/27/25 7:15PM
Pirates
Braves
+140
-170
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+130)
O 8 (-110)
U 8 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 7:16PM EDT
Texas Rangers
Cleveland Guardians
9/27/25 7:16PM
Rangers
Guardians
+135
-165
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+150)
O 7 (-120)
U 7 (+100)
Sep 27, 2025 8:40PM EDT
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
9/27/25 8:40PM
Diamondbacks
Padres
+115
-140
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
O 7.5 (-120)
U 7.5 (+100)
Sep 27, 2025 9:39PM EDT
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
9/27/25 9:39PM
Astros
Angels
-165
+135
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-125)
O 9 (+100)
U 9 (-120)
Sep 27, 2025 9:41PM EDT
Los Angeles Dodgers
Seattle Mariners
9/27/25 9:41PM
Dodgers
Mariners
+100
-120
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-205)
O 7.5 (-110)
U 7.5 (-110)
Sep 27, 2025 10:05PM EDT
Kansas City Royals
Oakland Athletics
9/27/25 10:05PM
Royals
Athletics
+100
-120
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-180)
O 10 (-110)
U 10 (-110)

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates on May 04, 2025 at PNC Park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN
CHC@SF CHC -105 54.1% 4 LOSS
NYY@CHW RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES 54.1% 4 WIN
PHI@NYM OVER 8.5 55.6% 4 LOSS
LAA@TEX LOGAN OHOPPE OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.1% 4 LOSS
KC@CHW KC -109 54.2% 4 WIN
SD@SEA DYLAN CEASE OVER 16.5 OUTS 53.9% 3 LOSS
SD@SEA UNDER 8.5 54.4% 4 LOSS
MIN@TOR JOE RYAN UNDER 2.5 EARNED RUNS 54.1% 4 LOSS
SF@MIL MIL +100 54.0% 6 LOSS
TOR@MIA MIA +1.5 62.0% 6 WIN
CHC@LAA OVER 9.5 54.9% 4 LOSS
BOS@NYY CARLOS RODON UNDER 4.5 HITS ALLOWED 54.2% 4 WIN
KC@DET DET -115 56.1% 5 WIN
CHC@LAA LAA +1.5 57.6% 5 LOSS
CIN@ARI KEBRYAN HAYES STRIKEOUTS UNDER 0.5 56.2% 6 WIN
LAD@SD SD +110 50.9% 6 WIN