Twins vs Red Sox Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (May 04)

Updated: 2025-05-02T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Minnesota Twins (13-19) and Boston Red Sox (14-13) conclude their three-game series at Fenway Park on Sunday, May 4, 2025, with first pitch scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. The Red Sox aim to secure the series win, while the Twins look to bounce back and avoid a sweep.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 04, 2025

Start Time: 1:35 PM EST​

Venue: Fenway Park​

Red Sox Record: (18-17)

Twins Record: (14-20)

OPENING ODDS

MIN Moneyline: +188

BOS Moneyline: -228

MIN Spread: +1.5

BOS Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 8

MIN
Betting Trends

  • The Twins have hit the game total under in 16 of their last 24 games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring contests.

BOS
Betting Trends

  • The Red Sox have hit the first five innings (F5) run line in 11 of their last 14 games, showcasing strong early-game performances.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • In their last five head-to-head matchups, the underdog has covered the spread in four games. Additionally, the total has gone under in three of those five games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring contests.

MIN vs. BOS
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: R. Devers over 7.5 Fantasy Score.

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Minnesota vs Boston Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 5/4/25

The Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox close out their three-game series at Fenway Park on Sunday, May 4, 2025, with both teams looking to assert momentum as they navigate tight divisional races. Boston enters the game with a 14-13 record and a chance to secure a home series win, while Minnesota, sitting at 13-19, desperately needs a victory to halt their slide and avoid being swept in back-to-back series. The matchup features right-hander Chris Paddack on the mound for Minnesota, who has shown glimpses of his old form this season but still seeks more consistency with his fastball command and changeup depth. Opposing him is hard-throwing lefty Garrett Crochet, whose impressive strikeout numbers and command of the zone have made him a rising asset in the Red Sox rotation despite occasional trouble with deep counts. The Red Sox offense, powered by Jarren Duran’s table-setting speed and Rafael Devers’ left-handed power, has been firing on all cylinders, and the addition of Alex Bregman has added another elite bat with playoff experience and versatility. This lineup has consistently produced early leads, evident by Boston covering the first five innings run line in 11 of their last 14 games, and they’ll look to jump on Paddack early with aggressive at-bats and high-contact hitting. On the other side, the Twins’ offense has struggled with inconsistency and injuries, relying heavily on Byron Buxton to spark rallies with his combination of power and speed—he leads the team with six home runs and seven stolen bases.

Carlos Correa’s production has been below expectations to start the season, and the Twins will need him to step up in big moments to complement Buxton and balance the order. Minnesota’s bullpen has been inconsistent, often overused due to short outings from starters, and that trend could be problematic if Paddack isn’t able to provide length in this game. Boston’s bullpen, meanwhile, has been quietly effective, with reliable arms like Kenley Jansen and Josh Winckowski holding leads in the late innings and keeping the Red Sox in close games. Defensively, Boston has the edge, with clean infield play and outfielders capable of cutting off extra bases, while Minnesota has made costly errors at key points in recent games. Both teams have played close, low-scoring games recently, reflected in the fact that the under has hit in 16 of Minnesota’s last 24 games and three of the last five matchups between these clubs. The environment at Fenway always provides a boost for the home team, and if Boston can strike early and maintain pressure, they’re in a strong position to take the series and continue climbing in the AL East standings. For the Twins, Sunday is about finding a rhythm—on the mound, at the plate, and defensively—to stop the bleeding and return home with something positive to build on. With two motivated clubs and postseason aspirations, expect a spirited battle that could hinge on which starter settles in faster and which offense breaks through first.

Minnesota Twins MLB Preview

The Minnesota Twins enter Sunday’s series finale against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park with a sense of urgency as they look to halt a four-game losing streak and avoid a sweep that would push them further below .500 in the AL Central. At 13-19, the Twins have struggled to find consistent form on both sides of the ball, and injuries have only compounded the challenges facing manager Rocco Baldelli. Offensively, Minnesota has leaned heavily on Byron Buxton, who leads the team with six home runs and has added seven stolen bases, injecting much-needed power and athleticism into a lineup that has lacked rhythm. Carlos Correa, one of the team’s highest-paid and most experienced players, has yet to find his groove at the plate, and his slow start has contributed to the team’s broader struggles with driving in runs. The Twins have struggled with timely hitting and rank near the bottom of the American League in batting average with runners in scoring position. Adding to the pressure is the team’s 5-10 road record, which highlights their inability to carry momentum away from Target Field. Sunday’s starter, right-hander Chris Paddack, carries the responsibility of stabilizing the rotation and giving the bullpen some relief. Paddack, whose fastball-changeup combination has been effective when he’s commanding the strike zone, has had mixed results so far this season and must avoid falling behind in counts against a disciplined Red Sox lineup.

Minnesota’s bullpen has been a source of concern, frequently overworked due to short outings by the rotation, and middle relief has been unreliable in close games. In the field, the Twins have been sound but not exceptional, with solid play from Buxton in center and Carlos Correa anchoring the infield, though defensive missteps in high-leverage moments have proven costly during recent games. If the Twins are to break out of their current funk, they will need to put together a more complete performance—solid starting pitching, clean defense, and timely run production. Facing a red-hot Red Sox lineup and a confident Garrett Crochet on the mound, the Twins must be aggressive early in counts and capitalize on any mistake pitches they get. The top of the order must set the tone, and the middle of the lineup must deliver with runners on base—something that’s been lacking all series. With the AL Central still wide open, a win on Sunday could serve as a much-needed turning point for a Twins team that’s been hovering on the edge of a prolonged slump. It’s a test of resilience for Minnesota, and the hope is that their veterans can lead the way in a hostile road environment where every misstep is amplified. Avoiding the sweep won’t just be about pride—it may be necessary to keep their season from slipping into a deeper hole before May really heats up.

The Minnesota Twins (13-19) and Boston Red Sox (14-13) conclude their three-game series at Fenway Park on Sunday, May 4, 2025, with first pitch scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. The Red Sox aim to secure the series win, while the Twins look to bounce back and avoid a sweep. Minnesota vs Boston AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for May 04. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Boston Red Sox MLB Preview

The Boston Red Sox return to Fenway Park on Sunday afternoon looking to close out a series win over the Minnesota Twins and continue building positive momentum in a competitive AL East. With a 14-13 record, Boston sits right around the .500 mark but has quietly been one of the more consistent teams in the league over the past two weeks, thanks largely to a deep, versatile offense and solid contributions from both the rotation and bullpen. Sunday’s game features left-hander Garrett Crochet on the mound, and he has quickly become one of Boston’s most valuable arms. Though relatively new to a starting role, Crochet has impressed with his high-octane fastball, elite strikeout rate, and increased poise when working with traffic on the bases. His ability to miss bats has allowed the Red Sox to jump out to early leads—one reason they’ve hit the first five innings run line in 11 of their last 14 games. Backing him is an offense that has been firing on all cylinders led by Jarren Duran, whose elite speed and leadoff production (.300+ average, high OBP) have consistently ignited rallies. Rafael Devers continues to be a central source of power from the middle of the order, while Alex Bregman’s presence has added a layer of veteran consistency, with his contact skills and situational awareness helping the team capitalize in clutch spots.

The Red Sox lineup has also benefitted from contributions from Connor Wong and Triston Casas, giving manager Alex Cora the flexibility to mix and match based on matchups. Defensively, Boston has been solid, with clean infield play and strong outfield coverage allowing their pitchers to work more efficiently. The bullpen has been another key strength—closer Kenley Jansen remains a reliable option in the ninth, while arms like Chris Martin and Josh Winckowski have done well bridging the gap from the starter. The team’s depth has been tested by some injuries early on, but young players and veteran reinforcements have stepped up to maintain competitiveness. Facing a struggling Twins team that’s battled inconsistency and a lack of offensive execution, Boston has an opportunity to apply pressure early and give Crochet a comfortable lead to work with. The Red Sox have also excelled at home, feeding off the energy at Fenway and using their offensive aggression to put opponents on their heels in the first few innings. A win Sunday would not only seal a series victory but also mark an important checkpoint in the Red Sox’s push to establish themselves as legitimate contenders in what’s shaping up to be a tight division. With all facets of the game working together—power, pitching, defense, and timely hitting—the Red Sox appear poised to continue their climb, and another strong all-around performance could help spark a longer winning streak as they look to build momentum heading into mid-May.

Minnesota vs. Boston Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of data on each line. In fact, anytime the Twins and Red Sox play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Fenway Park in May can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: R. Devers over 7.5 Fantasy Score.

Minnesota vs. Boston Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over tons of data from every past game between the Twins and Red Sox and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.

Remi has been most focused on the linear correlation of weight knucklehead sportsbettors regularly put on Minnesota’s strength factors between a Twins team going up against a possibly deflated Red Sox team. Trends look to say the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.

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Below is our current AI Minnesota vs Boston picks, computer picks Twins vs Red Sox, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.

Twins Betting Trends

The Twins have hit the game total under in 16 of their last 24 games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring contests.

Red Sox Betting Trends

The Red Sox have hit the first five innings (F5) run line in 11 of their last 14 games, showcasing strong early-game performances.

Twins vs. Red Sox Matchup Trends

In their last five head-to-head matchups, the underdog has covered the spread in four games. Additionally, the total has gone under in three of those five games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring contests.

Minnesota vs. Boston Game Info

Minnesota vs Boston starts on May 04, 2025 at 1:35 PM EST.

Spread: Boston -1.5
Moneyline: Minnesota +188, Boston -228
Over/Under: 8

Minnesota: (14-20)  |  Boston: (18-17)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: R. Devers over 7.5 Fantasy Score.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

In their last five head-to-head matchups, the underdog has covered the spread in four games. Additionally, the total has gone under in three of those five games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring contests.

MIN trend: The Twins have hit the game total under in 16 of their last 24 games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring contests.

BOS trend: The Red Sox have hit the first five innings (F5) run line in 11 of their last 14 games, showcasing strong early-game performances.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Minnesota vs. Boston Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of data points on each player. In fact, anytime the Minnesota vs Boston trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.

Minnesota vs Boston Opening Odds

MIN Moneyline: +188
BOS Moneyline: -228
MIN Spread: +1.5
BOS Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 8

Minnesota vs Boston Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox on May 04, 2025 at Fenway Park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
LAD@TOR TOR +1.5 56.7% 2 WIN
TOR@LAD TOR +1.5 55.3% 4 WIN
TOR@SEA OVER 7 54.9% 3 WIN
LAD@MIL UNDER 7.5 56.6% 6 WIN
TOR@NYY OVER 8 54.9% 4 WIN
TOR@NYY CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED 53.3% 3 WIN
NYY@TOR OVER 7.5 54.8% 2 WIN
LAD@PHI OVER 7 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC CHC -109 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC OVER 7.5 54.5% 4 LOSS
SD@CHC CHC -111 54.8% 4 LOSS
CIN@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES 53.5% 3 WIN
BOS@NYY OVER 7 53.8% 3 LOSS
CIN@LAD ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES 54.4% 4 LOSS
ARI@SD SD -131 57.3% 4 WIN
DET@BOS BOS -115 56.4% 5 WIN
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN