Royals vs Orioles Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (May 04)

Updated: 2025-05-02T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles will face off in the final game of their three-game series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Sunday, May 4, 2025, with first pitch scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Both teams are looking to gain momentum in their respective divisions as they conclude this weekend matchup.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 04, 2025

Start Time: 1:35 PM EST​

Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards​

Orioles Record: (13-19)

Royals Record: (18-16)

OPENING ODDS

KC Moneyline: +110

BAL Moneyline: -131

KC Spread: +1.5

BAL Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 9.5

KC
Betting Trends

  • The Royals have covered the spread in 8 of their 12 games as favorites this season, translating to a 66.7% success rate. As underdogs, they have covered in 8 of 19 games, a 42.1% rate.

BAL
Betting Trends

  • The Orioles have covered the spread in 7 of their 16 games as favorites (43.8%) and in 6 of 13 games as underdogs (46.2%).

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • In their last five head-to-head matchups, the underdog has covered the spread in four games. Additionally, the total has gone under in three of those five games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring contests.

KC vs. BAL
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Waters over 0.5 Total Bases.

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Kansas City vs Baltimore Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 5/4/25

The Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles wrap up their three-game series on Sunday, May 4, 2025, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards with both clubs aiming to build momentum in what’s been an up-and-down start to the season for each. The Royals, standing at 17-16, have emerged as one of the early surprises of the American League, combining timely hitting with solid starting pitching to stay competitive in a wide-open AL Central. Baltimore, on the other hand, enters with a 13-18 record, a disappointing beginning to a season that followed a promising 2024 campaign, as they continue searching for stability both offensively and on the mound. Kansas City will send right-hander Michael Lorenzen (3-3, 3.48 ERA) to the mound in hopes of securing a series win; Lorenzen has been dependable, mixing his fastball, cutter, and changeup effectively while giving the Royals consistent innings and a chance to win every fifth day. Opposing him is veteran righty Kyle Gibson, a familiar arm for the Orioles who has struggled with command and has not been able to replicate the effectiveness he showed in previous seasons. The game pits two lineups that boast standout talents but are still trying to put together complete offensive performances night to night. The Royals have leaned heavily on the spark of Bobby Witt Jr., whose .312 average, speed, and emerging power make him a constant threat, while Maikel Garcia’s consistent contact hitting (.288 AVG) and strong situational play have helped balance the top of the order.

On the Baltimore side, Cedric Mullins (.267, 6 HR) has been the most consistent producer, while Ryan O’Hearn’s .303 average and power have provided a lift in the middle of the lineup, though key contributors like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson have had uneven stretches. This series finale may come down to which bullpen performs better under pressure—Kansas City’s relief corps has been surprisingly effective, with arms like James McArthur and John Schreiber stepping into high-leverage roles and delivering, while Baltimore’s bullpen has been far more volatile, struggling to hold late leads and protect slim margins. The Royals also hold a slight edge defensively, showing solid infield fundamentals and the ability to convert double plays efficiently, while the Orioles have had occasional lapses that have extended innings and allowed opponents to capitalize. The broader context of this matchup is equally compelling: Kansas City is looking to prove their start isn’t a fluke and that they can hang in a competitive Central, while Baltimore is desperate to stop the bleeding and avoid falling too far behind in a stacked AL East. With two experienced starters on the mound, young talent on both sides, and divisional pride at stake, this game is set up to be a tightly contested battle that could swing on one or two critical at-bats or managerial decisions. Both teams know what’s at stake, and Sunday’s contest should reflect that urgency, intensity, and competitive spirit that defines early May baseball for clubs hoping to find their identity.

Kansas City Royals MLB Preview

The Kansas City Royals head into Sunday’s finale at Oriole Park with a 17-16 record and the chance to walk away with a valuable road series win that would further legitimize their encouraging start to the 2025 season. After years of rebuilding, the Royals are starting to see the fruits of their development pipeline with a lineup that blends young, dynamic talent with veteran presence. Bobby Witt Jr. remains the engine of the offense, batting .312 with a mix of gap-to-gap power, elite baserunning, and improved plate discipline that continues to make him one of the most exciting young stars in baseball. He’s been well-supported by Maikel Garcia, who’s hitting .288 and playing excellent defense on the left side of the infield, while Vinnie Pasquantino, despite a cold stretch (.179 AVG), remains a middle-of-the-order bat the Royals believe will heat up. Veteran catcher Salvador Pérez adds a steadying influence, both at the plate and behind it, with his ability to call games, frame pitches, and deliver timely power still very much intact. On the mound, right-hander Michael Lorenzen gets the ball with a 3-3 record and 3.48 ERA, representing one of the most stable arms in Kansas City’s rotation. Lorenzen has shown veteran poise, limiting walks and generating weak contact through a combination of a riding fastball, a fading changeup, and a tight cutter that keeps hitters off balance.

The Royals have done a good job providing him early run support this year, and if they can get on the board quickly, Lorenzen is more than capable of pitching deep into the game. Behind him, the Royals’ bullpen has emerged as a strength, with James McArthur and John Schreiber anchoring the late innings and consistently closing the door when given a lead. Defensively, Kansas City has looked sharp, executing double plays efficiently and limiting mistakes, a reflection of manager Matt Quatraro’s emphasis on fundamentals and situational awareness. The team’s improved base running has also helped generate extra opportunities, with players like Witt and Garcia applying pressure on opposing defenses when they get on base. Against a struggling Orioles club and a vulnerable starter in Kyle Gibson, the Royals have a chance to be aggressive early and force Baltimore’s bullpen into action before the middle innings. Sunday presents more than just a chance for a series win—it’s another opportunity for the Royals to build momentum and send a message that they’re not just a feel-good story in the AL Central but a legitimate postseason contender. With solid pitching, defensive execution, and a rising young core, Kansas City looks to leave Baltimore with a statement victory and a winning record to take into the next leg of their schedule.

The Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles will face off in the final game of their three-game series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Sunday, May 4, 2025, with first pitch scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Both teams are looking to gain momentum in their respective divisions as they conclude this weekend matchup. Kansas City vs Baltimore AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for May 04. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Baltimore Orioles MLB Preview

The Baltimore Orioles enter Sunday’s matchup against the Kansas City Royals looking to avoid another series loss and reverse their slow start to the 2025 campaign, which has left them at 13-18 and searching for consistency across the board. After a breakout 2024 season that saw Baltimore return to playoff relevance, the current year has been more turbulent, with flashes of the team’s potential frequently overshadowed by pitching woes and uneven offensive production. Manager Brandon Hyde will hand the ball to veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson, a pitcher the team hoped would provide stability but who has struggled with command and run prevention early this season. Gibson’s performance on Sunday will be key—not only for giving his team a chance to win but also to help reset a starting rotation that has lacked length and reliability. The Orioles’ bullpen has been forced to carry more innings than expected, and while certain relievers like Yennier Canó have performed well, the unit overall has been stretched thin and vulnerable late in games. On the offensive side, Baltimore still boasts an exciting core led by Cedric Mullins, who is hitting .267 with 6 home runs and a team-leading energy both in the field and at the plate. Ryan O’Hearn has quietly been one of the most effective bats in the lineup, with a .303 average and clutch production, and Adley Rutschman continues to be the glue behind the plate, even if his offensive numbers haven’t yet met expectations.

Gunnar Henderson has had an up-and-down start, providing power and defensive highlight-reel plays, but he’ll need to find more consistency to anchor the middle of the order. Despite the star power and talent in the lineup, the Orioles have struggled in situational hitting, particularly with runners in scoring position, leading to missed opportunities and close losses. Defensively, the team remains sound, with good range in the outfield and strong arms across the diamond, but even excellent fielding can’t overcome a pitching staff that struggles to keep games close early. Sunday’s game is critical, not just to avoid a home series defeat, but to inject a much-needed sense of momentum into a season that risks falling behind quickly in the stacked AL East. Baltimore’s home crowd at Camden Yards has continued to show up in support, and a strong outing from Gibson coupled with early run support could be exactly what the team needs to reset. If the Orioles can manufacture runs, manage pitch counts more effectively, and keep the Royals’ dynamic young hitters in check, they stand a good chance of salvaging the finale. With May now underway, the sense of urgency is real, and Baltimore must begin stringing wins together to stay in touch with division rivals who have come out of the gates much hotter. Sunday presents an opportunity to stabilize and start building back the confidence that defined the 2024 squad.

Kansas City vs. Baltimore Prop Picks (AI)

Remi is pouring through loads of stats on each player. In fact, anytime the Royals and Orioles play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in May seemingly never follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Waters over 0.5 Total Bases.

Kansas City vs. Baltimore Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over mountains of data from every facet between the Royals and Orioles and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to boil down the data to a single cover probability.

Interestingly enough, the data has been most watching on the unproportionally assigned emphasis human bettors often put on coaching factors between a Royals team going up against a possibly tired Orioles team. Trends look to say the true game analytics might reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Kansas City vs Baltimore picks, computer picks Royals vs Orioles, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.

Royals Betting Trends

The Royals have covered the spread in 8 of their 12 games as favorites this season, translating to a 66.7% success rate. As underdogs, they have covered in 8 of 19 games, a 42.1% rate.

Orioles Betting Trends

The Orioles have covered the spread in 7 of their 16 games as favorites (43.8%) and in 6 of 13 games as underdogs (46.2%).

Royals vs. Orioles Matchup Trends

In their last five head-to-head matchups, the underdog has covered the spread in four games. Additionally, the total has gone under in three of those five games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring contests.

Kansas City vs. Baltimore Game Info

Kansas City vs Baltimore starts on May 04, 2025 at 1:35 PM EST.

Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Spread: Baltimore -1.5
Moneyline: Kansas City +110, Baltimore -131
Over/Under: 9.5

Kansas City: (18-16)  |  Baltimore: (13-19)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Waters over 0.5 Total Bases.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

In their last five head-to-head matchups, the underdog has covered the spread in four games. Additionally, the total has gone under in three of those five games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring contests.

KC trend: The Royals have covered the spread in 8 of their 12 games as favorites this season, translating to a 66.7% success rate. As underdogs, they have covered in 8 of 19 games, a 42.1% rate.

BAL trend: The Orioles have covered the spread in 7 of their 16 games as favorites (43.8%) and in 6 of 13 games as underdogs (46.2%).

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Kansas City vs. Baltimore Odds

Remi is pouring through mountains of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Kansas City vs Baltimore trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps rarely follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Kansas City vs Baltimore Opening Odds

KC Moneyline: +110
BAL Moneyline: -131
KC Spread: +1.5
BAL Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 9.5

Kansas City vs Baltimore Live Odds

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MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles on May 04, 2025 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
LAD@TOR TOR +1.5 56.7% 2 WIN
TOR@LAD TOR +1.5 55.3% 4 WIN
TOR@SEA OVER 7 54.9% 3 WIN
LAD@MIL UNDER 7.5 56.6% 6 WIN
TOR@NYY OVER 8 54.9% 4 WIN
TOR@NYY CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED 53.3% 3 WIN
NYY@TOR OVER 7.5 54.8% 2 WIN
LAD@PHI OVER 7 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC CHC -109 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC OVER 7.5 54.5% 4 LOSS
SD@CHC CHC -111 54.8% 4 LOSS
CIN@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES 53.5% 3 WIN
BOS@NYY OVER 7 53.8% 3 LOSS
CIN@LAD ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES 54.4% 4 LOSS
ARI@SD SD -131 57.3% 4 WIN
DET@BOS BOS -115 56.4% 5 WIN
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN