Mets vs Nationals Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (Apr 28)

Updated: 2025-04-26T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The New York Mets (19–9) and Washington Nationals (13–15) conclude their four-game series at Nationals Park on Monday, April 28, 2025, with first pitch scheduled for 4:05 PM ET. The Nationals currently lead the series 2–1, aiming to secure a series win, while the Mets look to even the series.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Apr 28, 2025

Start Time: 4:05 PM EST​

Venue: Nationals Park​

Nationals Record: (13-15)

Mets Record: (19-9)

OPENING ODDS

NYM Moneyline: -160

WAS Moneyline: +134

NYM Spread: -1.5

WAS Spread: +1.5

Over/Under: 9.5

NYM
Betting Trends

  • The Mets have covered the run line in 14 of their 25 games this season, reflecting a 56% success rate against the spread (ATS).

WAS
Betting Trends

  • The Nationals have a 12–13 ATS record this season, covering the run line in approximately 48% of their games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • The Mets have covered the run line in 8 of their last 11 games, indicating a strong recent performance against the spread.

NYM vs. WAS
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Crews over 0.5 Total Bases.

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New York Mets vs Washington Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 4/28/25

The New York Mets and Washington Nationals wrap up their four-game series at Nationals Park on Monday afternoon, with the Nationals holding a surprising 2–1 series edge and aiming to secure a series victory against one of the National League’s early-season heavyweights. The Mets, sitting atop the NL East with a 19–9 record, have been one of the most consistent teams in baseball this season, combining strong pitching, timely hitting, and solid defense, but have been tested in this series by a Nationals squad playing with resilience and purpose. Griffin Canning will take the mound for the Mets, bringing a 3–1 record and a 3.12 ERA into the contest, tasked with stabilizing the rotation and giving New York a chance to salvage a series split before heading back home. Offensively, Pete Alonso continues to lead the charge with his home run power, while Francisco Lindor anchors the lineup with clutch hitting and dynamic defense, and the returns of Francisco Alvarez and Jeff McNeil have given manager Carlos Mendoza even more flexibility with matchups. The Nationals, meanwhile, have punched above their weight throughout the series, with James Wood emerging as the team’s breakout star, already delivering eight home runs and 19 RBIs while flashing impressive plate discipline and power. Trevor Williams, who will start for Washington, enters with a 1–2 record and a 5.11 ERA and will need to find a way to limit New York’s deep lineup while relying on improved defensive play behind him.

The Nationals have also recently added Nathaniel Lowe from the Rangers, a move designed to bolster their offense and add another veteran bat capable of impacting the middle of the order. Recent betting trends highlight that while the Mets have been strong against the run line, covering in eight of their last 11 games, Washington’s ability to grind out close games in this series has defied expectations and given them confidence heading into the finale. Both bullpens have had their moments, but the edge appears to remain with New York, whose late-inning arms have been among the most reliable in the majors this season. With a daytime first pitch and getaway day urgency in the air, both teams will be eager to start fast, avoid defensive mistakes, and seize early momentum. For the Mets, the formula remains clear: trust their starting pitching, let their stars set the tone offensively, and rely on their bullpen to secure the win. For the Nationals, playing loose, aggressive baseball and continuing to find contributions up and down the lineup will be essential if they hope to pull off a series victory and continue climbing toward .500. Given the stakes and the contrasting strengths of the two squads, Monday’s series finale promises to be a spirited, closely contested battle where execution in key moments will make all the difference.

New York Mets Mets MLB Preview

The New York Mets arrive at Monday’s series finale at Nationals Park fully aware that they have work to do to avoid an unsatisfactory 2–2 split against a Washington team they were widely expected to dominate, and the focus will be on execution, discipline, and reasserting the brand of sharp, fundamentally sound baseball that has carried them to a strong 19–9 start. Powered by a star-studded lineup headlined by Pete Alonso, who remains one of baseball’s premier power hitters and a constant threat to change the game with a single swing, and the versatile Francisco Lindor, who combines clutch hitting with Gold Glove-caliber defense at shortstop, the Mets boast one of the most complete rosters in the National League. The recent returns of catcher Francisco Alvarez and second baseman Jeff McNeil have deepened the Mets’ offensive attack, giving manager Carlos Mendoza the ability to mix and match based on matchups while also strengthening the bottom half of the lineup, which had shown some signs of vulnerability earlier in the month. On the mound for New York will be Griffin Canning, who has posted a solid 3–1 record with a 3.12 ERA thus far, showcasing improved command of his fastball and an ability to miss bats with his secondary pitches, a skill that will be crucial against a Nationals lineup that has grown increasingly confident as the series has progressed.

The Mets’ bullpen, led by closer Edwin Díaz and key setup men like Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley, has been excellent at protecting leads late in games, but the plan for New York will be to avoid leaving things to chance by putting early runs on the board and forcing the Nationals to play from behind. Defensively, the Mets have been one of the cleaner teams in baseball, ranking near the top of the league in fielding percentage, and they will need that crisp defensive execution to avoid giving extra bases and free outs to a scrappy Washington squad. The Mets know that staying aggressive at the plate, maintaining patience against Trevor Williams to drive up pitch counts, and capitalizing on scoring opportunities when they arise will be key if they hope to avoid heading into their next series on a sour note. With a chance to reinforce their early-season dominance and continue setting the tone in a competitive NL East, Monday’s finale is a critical one for a New York club that has high expectations and little margin for error in what promises to be a fiercely contested divisional race throughout the summer.

The New York Mets (19–9) and Washington Nationals (13–15) conclude their four-game series at Nationals Park on Monday, April 28, 2025, with first pitch scheduled for 4:05 PM ET. The Nationals currently lead the series 2–1, aiming to secure a series win, while the Mets look to even the series. New York Mets vs Washington AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for Apr 28. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Washington Nationals MLB Preview

The Washington Nationals enter the series finale against the New York Mets on Monday with a golden opportunity to clinch a series victory that could serve as an early-season statement for a young and hungry team looking to establish legitimacy in the NL East. Sitting at 13–15, the Nationals have showcased resilience and improved consistency throughout the series, riding strong performances from emerging star James Wood, who continues to impress with his blend of power, plate discipline, and clutch hitting, already pacing the team with eight home runs and 19 RBIs. Washington’s offense, though still evolving, has shown an encouraging balance, with Keibert Ruiz providing key contributions at the plate and behind it, anchoring the pitching staff while maintaining a steady presence in the middle of the lineup. The recent acquisition of Nathaniel Lowe from the Rangers gives manager Dave Martinez another experienced bat to complement CJ Abrams and Luis García Jr., who have each flashed moments of brilliance with their ability to manufacture runs and provide timely base hits. On the mound for the Nationals, veteran right-hander Trevor Williams takes the ball carrying a 1–2 record and a 5.11 ERA, knowing full well that limiting the Mets’ power threats and attacking the strike zone early will be key to giving his team a chance to win.

Williams has had stretches of effectiveness this season when he’s been able to command his fastball and induce soft contact, and he will need to work efficiently to avoid long innings and high pitch counts against a patient New York lineup. Defensively, the Nationals have been markedly improved, cutting down on errors and playing fundamentally sound baseball that has helped them protect slim leads in the late innings. The bullpen, anchored by closer Kyle Finnegan and emerging setup man Hunter Harvey, has become a strength, consistently shutting down opponents in tight games and allowing Washington to hold onto narrow advantages. As they gear up for Monday’s matinee, the Nationals know the formula for success involves staying aggressive at the plate without chasing, keeping the pressure on Mets pitchers by putting runners in motion, and playing airtight defense behind Williams to avoid giving extra outs to one of the National League’s most dangerous lineups. With the confidence that comes from taking two of the first three games in the series, Washington has a real chance to continue surprising skeptics and build valuable momentum as the calendar turns toward May, provided they can execute clean baseball and match the Mets’ urgency from the first pitch. A win would not only secure a rare series victory over a division heavyweight but would also bolster the clubhouse’s growing belief that this young team is ready to accelerate its rebuild and make noise much sooner than many around baseball anticipated.

New York Mets vs. Washington Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Mets and Nationals play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Nationals Park in Apr almost always follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Crews over 0.5 Total Bases.

New York Mets vs. Washington Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over exorbitant amounts of data from every simulation between the Mets and Nationals and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.

Interestingly enough, the data has been most focused on the linear correlation of emphasis knucklehead sportsbettors often put on Washington’s strength factors between a Mets team going up against a possibly tired Nationals team. It appears the true game analytics appear to reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.

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Below is our current AI New York Mets vs Washington picks, computer picks Mets vs Nationals, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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Mets Betting Trends

The Mets have covered the run line in 14 of their 25 games this season, reflecting a 56% success rate against the spread (ATS).

Nationals Betting Trends

The Nationals have a 12–13 ATS record this season, covering the run line in approximately 48% of their games.

Mets vs. Nationals Matchup Trends

The Mets have covered the run line in 8 of their last 11 games, indicating a strong recent performance against the spread.

New York Mets vs. Washington Game Info

New York Mets vs Washington starts on April 28, 2025 at 4:05 PM EST.

Spread: Washington +1.5
Moneyline: New York Mets -160, Washington +134
Over/Under: 9.5

New York Mets: (19-9)  |  Washington: (13-15)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Crews over 0.5 Total Bases.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

The Mets have covered the run line in 8 of their last 11 games, indicating a strong recent performance against the spread.

NYM trend: The Mets have covered the run line in 14 of their 25 games this season, reflecting a 56% success rate against the spread (ATS).

WAS trend: The Nationals have a 12–13 ATS record this season, covering the run line in approximately 48% of their games.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

New York Mets vs. Washington Odds

Remi is pouring through tons of data points on each line. In fact, anytime the New York Mets vs Washington trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps seemingly never follow normal, predictable betting trends.

New York Mets vs Washington Opening Odds

NYM Moneyline: -160
WAS Moneyline: +134
NYM Spread: -1.5
WAS Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 9.5

New York Mets vs Washington Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 19, 2025 8:04PM EDT
Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays
10/19/25 8:04PM
Mariners
Blue Jays
+112
-123
+1.5 (-195)
-1.5 (+171)
O 7.5 (-114)
U 7.5 (-101)

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers New York Mets Mets vs. Washington Nationals on April 28, 2025 at Nationals Park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
TOR@SEA OVER 7 54.9% 3 WIN
LAD@MIL UNDER 7.5 56.6% 6 WIN
TOR@NYY OVER 8 54.9% 4 WIN
TOR@NYY CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED 53.3% 3 WIN
NYY@TOR OVER 7.5 54.8% 2 WIN
LAD@PHI OVER 7 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC CHC -109 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC OVER 7.5 54.5% 4 LOSS
SD@CHC CHC -111 54.8% 4 LOSS
CIN@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES 53.5% 3 WIN
BOS@NYY OVER 7 53.8% 3 LOSS
CIN@LAD ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES 54.4% 4 LOSS
ARI@SD SD -131 57.3% 4 WIN
DET@BOS BOS -115 56.4% 5 WIN
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN
CHC@SF CHC -105 54.1% 4 LOSS
NYY@CHW RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES 54.1% 4 WIN