The Cincinnati Reds return to Great American Ball Park for today’s game with a 7–10 record and a pressing need to regain footing after an up-and-down start to the 2025 season that’s been marked by both promise and frustration. While expectations this year were more tempered compared to seasons past, the Reds still find themselves underperforming even relative to internal projections, thanks in part to an offense that has struggled to keep pace with a surprisingly resilient pitching staff. Key injuries have not helped the cause—Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson, and Austin Hays have all missed significant time—and those absences have thinned out a batting order already lacking depth. Amid this void, Elly De La Cruz has emerged as the team’s most electric and productive player, combining game-breaking speed, improved plate discipline, and raw athleticism to spark the Reds whenever he’s on base. His evolution as a top-of-the-order threat has given Cincinnati a foundation to build around, but the lineup behind him has yet to show consistent run-producing ability. Players like Spencer Steer and Jake Fraley have flashed at times, but not frequently enough to alleviate the pressure on De La Cruz to do everything. As a result, the Reds have ranked near the bottom of the league in both total runs scored and team batting average despite playing in one of baseball’s more hitter-friendly parks. Where Cincinnati has defied expectations, however, is on the mound. Their pitching staff has been one of the quiet surprises of the National League, allowing the third-fewest runs in the league despite the team’s losing record. The rotation has shown balance and growth, particularly from Brady Singer, acquired from Kansas City, who has provided much-needed stability with a 3.18 ERA, 2.71 FIP, and an impressive early-season strikeout rate.

Nick Lodolo and Nick Martinez have also given manager David Bell competitive outings, with Lodolo’s mix of velocity and movement especially effective against left-handed-heavy lineups. Today’s pitching matchup will likely lean heavily on the bullpen, where Cincinnati has been respectable but overtaxed due to the offense’s inability to generate comfortable leads. Closer Alexis Díaz remains a dominant option late, but the path to getting him the ball with a lead has been murky. In close games, the Reds have often found themselves needing perfection on the mound just to keep pace—a trend they’ll need to reverse quickly if they hope to dig out of the NL Central’s lower tier. From a betting perspective, the Reds have been difficult to trust, going 2–4 ATS in their last six games and 3–7 in their last ten overall. This underwhelming stretch has reflected not only losses but a troubling inability to play to market expectations, particularly at home. If Cincinnati is to shift that narrative, it must begin by converting quality pitching into actual wins—especially against beatable opponents like the Mariners, who have relied heavily on late-game production. That puts even more pressure on the Reds’ offense to strike early and give their starters room to breathe. Should De La Cruz continue to get on base and generate havoc, and if one or two bats behind him can deliver with runners in scoring position, Cincinnati may finally be able to pair solid pitching with a complete team effort. A win today could help reset the tone for the homestand and remind the Reds—and their fans—that this young, evolving roster still has the pieces to play competitive baseball in 2025.