The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals wrap up their three-game series tonight at Yankee Stadium in a matchup that offers two very different narratives: one of momentum and power from the Bronx Bombers, and another of resilience and hope from a Royals team looking to avoid a sweep. New York comes into the finale riding a two-game win streak, improving to 10–7 behind a blend of clutch hitting, timely pitching, and a reinvigorated energy on both sides of the ball. Their most recent 4–2 victory highlighted the emerging impact of Jasson Domínguez, whose bases-clearing double gave the Yankees a lead they never relinquished, and showcased the team’s ability to deliver in high-leverage situations. The Yankees have now held Kansas City to just three runs combined over the first two games, with the bullpen playing a pivotal role in shutting the door late. Tonight, they send right-hander Clarke Schmidt to the mound for his 2025 season debut after recovering from shoulder tendinitis. Schmidt’s previous season ended with a 2.98 ERA over 85.1 innings and a 0.99 WHIP, and the Yankees are hopeful that his return will stabilize the middle of a rotation that has leaned heavily on Max Fried and the bullpen through the first three weeks. The Royals, now 8–10, are trying to stop the bleeding after dropping three straight and being outscored 12–3 over the first two games of this series. They will counter with left-hander Kris Bubic, whose early-season numbers have been eye-popping—posting a 0.96 ERA through 18.2 innings with pinpoint control and significantly improved command over his secondary pitches.

Bubic has emerged as a steady presence in the Royals’ rotation and will be tasked with facing a Yankees lineup that currently leads Major League Baseball in OPS, a tall order even for a pitcher with his current form. The key challenge for Kansas City hasn’t been pitching, however—it’s been generating offense. Through 18 games, the Royals’ team OPS stands at a troubling .592, with long stretches of offensive stagnation and an inability to create sustained pressure on opposing pitchers. Bobby Witt Jr. remains the focal point of their lineup, showing flashes of the elite shortstop he’s projected to be, while Vinnie Pasquantino has added occasional pop. But too often the team is forced to play from behind, which limits its ability to use its speed and small-ball tools effectively. In terms of trends and betting angles, the total has gone under in five of the last seven meetings between these two teams, a stat supported by both clubs’ recent struggles to produce crooked numbers in the same game. The Yankees have covered the spread in four of their last six home games, showcasing their strength in front of their fans, while Kansas City has gone just 2–4 ATS in their last six overall. The contrast in offensive firepower, bullpen depth, and current form tilts the edge heavily in favor of the Yankees. For Kansas City to salvage the finale, Bubic will need to neutralize the middle of New York’s order early and keep the game within reach. If the Royals’ bats can come alive for even a single explosive inning and support their standout lefty, they might escape the Bronx with a confidence-boosting win. Otherwise, the Yankees’ firepower, defensive efficiency, and bullpen lockdown potential could spell another long night for Kansas City.