The San Diego Padres enter the series finale against the Chicago Cubs riding a wave of early-season momentum and holding a dominant 13–3 record, one of the best in Major League Baseball as of mid-April. With a deep and potent roster finally clicking on both sides of the ball, the Padres have asserted themselves as a formidable force in the National League. Their recent success has come in part thanks to a favorable schedule, as they’ve capitalized on matchups against sub-.500 opponents, but their consistent execution has been impressive regardless of competition. Playing at Petco Park, where they’ve already established a strong home-field edge this season, the Padres will look to complete another series victory behind the steady arm of Nick Pivetta. San Diego has won six of seven games this season when favored by bookmakers, and with Pivetta holding a 1.59 ERA and a WHIP of just 0.824, they are once again poised to deliver a complete team effort. Pivetta’s presence on the mound gives the Padres an anchor for today’s matchup. The right-hander has looked locked in through his early outings, commanding all quadrants of the strike zone and showing excellent control over his secondary pitches. He’s limited opposing lineups to minimal baserunners and has proven especially effective in jamming left-handed hitters—something he’ll need to replicate against Chicago’s lefty-laden order. Pivetta’s ability to pitch deep into games has allowed the Padres to manage their bullpen efficiently, with setup man Robert Suarez and closer Josh Hader rested and ready to go.

The pitching staff as a whole has helped keep the Padres ahead in tight games, contributing significantly to their strong ATS record of 11–5 this season. Their ability to cover spreads and control tempo has made them one of the most trustworthy early-season teams in MLB from both a baseball and betting standpoint. Offensively, San Diego continues to benefit from a dangerous and well-rounded lineup led by Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., both of whom have come up big in clutch situations. Tatis has provided explosive speed and power at the top of the order, while Machado remains the heartbeat of the lineup with his veteran leadership and ability to drive in runs from any count. Behind them, the supporting cast—Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, and Luis Campusano—has added depth and consistency. The Padres also thrive on aggressive base running and situational awareness, often taking extra bases and forcing errors that don’t show up on traditional stat sheets. If they continue their disciplined approach at the plate and get ahead early, the Cubs could struggle to mount a comeback against a bullpen that rarely falters. For the Padres, the formula for success remains simple: rely on elite starting pitching, a relentless lineup, and sound defense. A win today would further cement their status as early National League contenders and affirm their dominance at home, where they’ve looked nearly untouchable.