The Cleveland Guardians return to Progressive Field for the finale of their three-game series against the Kansas City Royals with a 6–6 record, a roster that’s faced its fair share of adversity in the early going, and the intent to close out the weekend with a statement win that reasserts their footing in the AL Central. Despite the .500 record, Cleveland’s season to date has been defined by a blend of consistent contact hitting, opportunistic offense, and some frustrating pitching inconsistencies largely attributed to injuries within their rotation. The absence of ace Shane Bieber and fellow starter John Means has left a noticeable void, with the Guardians forced to rely on depth arms like Ben Lively, who takes the ball on Sunday with a 0–1 record and a 4.40 ERA. Lively has shown flashes of command and competitiveness but has also struggled to put hitters away when ahead in the count, something he’ll need to address against a Kansas City lineup that’s built on small-ball principles and putting pressure on pitchers through extended at-bats. While Lively may not possess overpowering stuff, his ability to mix speeds and keep the ball down will be critical in avoiding the kind of early deficits that have plagued Cleveland in recent home losses. Offensively, the Guardians are driven by a contact-first approach, scoring an average of 3.67 runs per game—slightly above Kansas City’s output—while ranking near the top of the league in fewest strikeouts. Leading the charge is outfielder Steven Kwan, whose .368 batting average not only sets the tone from the top of the order but also underscores his role as one of the league’s most consistent table-setters.

Kwan’s approach at the plate is disciplined and efficient, giving the middle of the lineup ample opportunities to drive in runs. That responsibility has largely fallen to Kyle Manzardo in the early weeks, and he’s delivered, with four home runs and 11 RBIs—providing Cleveland with much-needed power and run production in the heart of the lineup. However, the Guardians’ home performance has yet to mirror their road effectiveness, with an 0–2 record ATS at Progressive Field and a 3–8 overall ATS record this season, indicating a team that has struggled to cover spreads and maintain late-game leads. With the total set at just 6.5 runs for Sunday’s contest, oddsmakers are expecting a pitcher’s duel, which places even more pressure on Cleveland’s bullpen and defensive alignment to remain sharp and error-free. For the Guardians, the formula to secure a win will hinge on Lively limiting early traffic, Kwan continuing to reach base, and Manzardo cashing in those opportunities with timely hits. They’ll also need their bullpen—already overworked from recent series—to find consistency in the seventh through ninth innings, where games like this one will likely be decided. A win here would not only push Cleveland back above .500 but also serve as a critical early tone-setter in the division, proving that even amid injuries and lineup shuffling, this team remains fundamentally sound, scrappy, and more than capable of competing with any team in the Central when executing their brand of baseball.