Florida Gators
Florida arrives off a 52-28 statement win over No. 4 Ole Miss, while Missouri just lost 31-24 at Mississippi State. The spread now ranges from roughly Florida -2.5 to -5.5, making price discipline crucial.
Missouri Tigers
Betting Snapshot
Spread Movement
Moneyline Movement
Total Movement
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| Sportsbook | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | FLA -4.5 MIZZOU +4.5 | FLA -200 MIZZOU +164 | O 56.5 U 56.5 |
| DraftKings | FLA -5.5 MIZZOU +5.5 | FLA -218 MIZZOU +180 | O 56.5 U 56.5 |
| BetRivers | FLA -5.5 MIZZOU +5.5 | FLA -210 MIZZOU +165 | O 56.5 U 56.5 |
Injury Report
Florida's fresh concern is WR Vernell Brown III, who exited the Ole Miss win with a knee injury and did not return. Missouri has continued without RB Ahmad Hardy, listed out with a leg injury, leaving Jamal Roberts as the lead back. Brown's availability is the biggest late-week variable because Florida's passing game loses a proven explosive target if he cannot go.
Key Players
Key Matchup Edge
Florida's rushing attack is the clearest matchup lever. The Gators just piled up 302 rushing yards on Ole Miss, while Jadan Baugh has topped 100 yards in five straight games. Missouri also allowed Mississippi State's Fluff Bothwell to rush for 122 yards, putting real pressure on the Tigers' front to win early downs.
3 Things to Watch
- Baugh versus Missouri's front
- Vernell Brown III knee status
- Simmons against Florida's pressure
Betting Breakdown
Florida enters 4-0 after overwhelming No. 4 Ole Miss 52-28, and the most repeatable part of that performance was the ground game. Jadan Baugh ran 29 times for 142 yards and three scores, Duke Clark added 126 yards, and Florida finished with 302 rushing yards. Missouri is 3-1 after a 31-24 road loss at Mississippi State, where Austin Simmons threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns and Cayden Lee posted 156 receiving yards. The market is not uniform: Florida is around -2.5 at some books and has been posted as high as -5.5 elsewhere, with totals in the mid-50s. That gap makes number shopping especially important. Florida owns the stronger current ATS profile at 3-1, while Missouri is 1-3 ATS. The central handicap is whether Missouri can prevent Baugh from controlling down-and-distance and force Aaron Philo into obvious passing situations, especially if Vernell Brown III's knee injury limits Florida's receiving corps.
Florida Betting Outlook
Florida's 4-0 start now includes consecutive SEC wins at Auburn and against Ole Miss, with the offense showing it can win through sustained rushing volume. Baugh has five straight 100-yard games dating to last season and just posted 142 yards with three touchdowns against Ole Miss. The Gators are 3-1 ATS, and their only road game produced a 44-39 win at Auburn. Bettors backing Florida should still respect the venue and the widening price range. Columbia has been difficult in this series, and Brown's knee status matters because his field-stretching ability helps keep extra defenders out of the box.
Missouri Betting Outlook
Missouri returns home 3-1 after coming within one score at Mississippi State. Simmons was productive in defeat, throwing for 295 yards and three touchdowns, while Cayden Lee caught 11 passes for 156 yards. The Tigers are 2-0 at home, but their 1-3 ATS record shows the market has generally priced them more aggressively than their margins support. Missouri's defensive priority is slowing Baugh without giving Florida easy play-action explosives. Offensively, Roberts provides dependable volume, but Simmons may need another efficient passing day if Florida controls the line of scrimmage and turns this into a higher-scoring SEC game.
Latest Team Buzz
Big Gator touchdown from @18Dallaswilson 💪 pic.twitter.com/4leUb0kxIp
— Florida Gators Football (@GatorsFB) September 27, 2026
The grab. The toe tap. Bears touchdown. 🤩
— Missouri State Football (@MoStateFootball) September 27, 2026
📺 @accnetwork #ItTakesUsAll | #NoStateLikeMoState pic.twitter.com/xTyQeITKBR
Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers FAQ
What is the current spread for Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers?
The current home spread is MIZZOU +5.5, while the away spread is FLA -5.5.
How far has the spread moved for Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers?
The spread opened at MIZZOU +2.5 and is now MIZZOU +5.5.
What is the current moneyline for Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers?
The current moneyline is FLA -218 / MIZZOU +180.
How far has the moneyline moved for Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers?
The moneyline opened at FLA -130 / MIZZOU +110 and is now FLA -218 / MIZZOU +180.
What is the current total for Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers?
The current total is 56.5.
How far has the total moved for Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers?
The total opened at 53.5 and is now 56.5.
Is the market taking the underdog in Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers?
Current market signal: Market Widening.
Is the market taking the favorite in Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers?
Current market signal: Dog Taking Support.
Is the total dropping for Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers?
Current totals signal: Total Rising.
Is the total rising for Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers?
Current totals signal: Total Rising.
Where to watch Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers?
You can watch this game on ABC. For the latest broadcast details, see Where to Watch.
Where to stream Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers?
You can stream this game on ESPN App.
What is the best free prop bet for Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers?
Remi's Still Searching
What is the biggest matchup edge for Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers?
Florida's rushing attack is the clearest matchup lever. The Gators just piled up 302 rushing yards on Ole Miss, while Jadan Baugh has topped 100 yards in five straight games. Missouri also allowed Mississippi State's Fluff Bothwell to rush for 122 yards, putting real pressure on the Tigers' front to win early downs.
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