Are Parlays Worth It? It Depends on 3 Surprising Factors
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Are Parlays Worth It?
Parlays can be tempting because they offer the potential for a large payout if all of the bets in the parlay win. However, mathematically speaking, a parlay is rarely worth it. Parlays are far riskier than individual bets because if even one of the bets in the parlay loses, the entire bet is lost.
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Are Parlays Worth It? | On Occasion – But Rarely
Parlays can be tempting because they offer the potential for a large payout if all of the bets in the parlay win. However, mathematically speaking, a parlay is almost never worth it. Parlays are far riskier than individual bets because if even one of the bets in the parlay loses, the entire bet is lost. As a result, parlays generally require a higher win rate to be profitable compared to individual bets, making them more difficult to win over the long term, and almost never worth it.
Let’s look at the math and statistics behind a parlay, why the sportsbooks can gain such a huge advantage, and why in almost every situation a parlay is like lighting money on fire. LeansAI is a statistical analytics website. Any analysis on this channel and derivatives of this channel, including leans, projections, analysis, and/or insider content is provided for entertainment purposes only, and falls under the LeansAI Terms of Service.
What Is a Parlay (and Why It’s Tempting)
Regular Parlay
A parlay is a type of bet in which multiple selections (typically between two and twelve) are made on the outcome of different events, with the winnings from each correct pick being used to fund the bet on the next. If one pick is incorrect, the entire bet is lost. Parlays offer the potential for large payouts, but the odds of winning are lower than with straight bets on individual events.
Same Game Parlay
A same game parlay is a type of sports betting where you combine multiple wagers on a single game into one bet. For example, you might choose to place bets on the winner of the game, the total number of points scored, and the first team to score, all in a single parlay. If all of your wagers are successful, the payouts from each are combined into one larger payout. The advantage of a same game parlay is that it allows you to increase your potential winnings with a single bet, while also taking on the risk of losing all of your wagers if any of them are unsuccessful.
A same game parlay can be entertaining because you can watch a single game and be pulling for multiple outcomes to happen. This experience can be enhanced if certain parlays are tied to one team doing particularly well, in which case several wagers hit as the team overperforms the anticipated lines.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
What are Parlay Odds Examples?
Whether or not a parlay is worth it can depend on several factors, including the odds of the individual bets being combined, the size of the bet, and the specific betting strategy being employed. The table below shows that unless one is using a strategy or handicapping service that provides a significant lean against a line or spread, the implied probabilities suggest the optimal mathematical wager is $0 for any parlay from 2-8 legs.
| Legs | Odds Per Leg | Odds Per Leg | Total Odds | Probability of Win | Optimal Mathematic Wager |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | -110 | 1.91 | 3.6 | 25.0% | $0 |
| 3 | -110 | 1.91 | 7.0 | 12.5% | $0 |
| 4 | -110 | 1.91 | 13.3 | 6.3% | $0 |
| 5 | -110 | 1.91 | 25.4 | 3.1% | $0 |
| 6 | -110 | 1.91 | 48.6 | 1.6% | $0 |
| 7 | -110 | 1.91 | 92.7 | 0.8% | $0 |
| 8 | -110 | 1.91 | 177.1 | 0.4% | $0 |
It’s also worth noting that sportsbooks often take a higher commission on parlays, which can reduce the potential payout even further. In general, parlays can be a good option for those who are willing to take on more risk for the potential for a larger payout, but it’s important to have a solid understanding of the odds and betting strategies involved, as well as a strong approach to risk management.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Factor 1 — Price vs True Edge
Parlays are where all the sportsbooks (Fanduel, DraftKings, BetMGM, etc) make a lot of their money. People fall in love with the idea “I was just one game away from winning that parlay”, which is exactly where the sportsbooks love to keep players, one game away with the illusion that they’re really that close to winning big. But the math almost never makes sense.
From a mathematical perspective, the odds of winning a parlay are often worse than the odds of winning individual bets on each event. This is because the payout for a parlay is calculated by multiplying the odds for each individual pick, and the odds for each pick are often less favorable than the odds for a straight bet. In other words, the bookmakers are taking advantage of the increased risk involved in a parlay by offering lower odds.
Sportsbooks embed margin into every price. If your model’s true win probability for a leg doesn’t exceed the book’s implied probability, you’re paying the house edge. Parlays multiply that edge. Example: a -110 line implies ~52.38% per leg. If your model makes that leg 55%, you have a small advantage individually. But stack three legs without correlation issues and your true hit rate is 0.553≈16.6%0.55^3 ≈ 16.6\% while the naive combined decimal price (for three -110 legs) is 1.9093≈6.961.909^3 ≈ 6.96. That looks attractive—but only if your 55% is real. If you’re actually closer to 52–53%, the expected value disappears fast. Price the legs first; the parlay only inherits what’s real.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Factor 2 — Correlation (SGPs vs Multi-Game)
Same-game parlays introduce correlation. A QB’s passing yards over and a WR’s receptions over rise and fall together; multiplying raw decimals overstates payout. Books re-price SGPs to account for this, typically shrinking returns. Multi-game parlays reduce correlation risk but still multiply margin. Treat SGPs as their own market: if the book shows a combined price lower than naive multiplication, they’ve priced the linkages. Validate SGP combos with a tool that estimates correlation instead of assuming independence.
Those considering a parlay should build a spreadsheet factoring in win probability of each game, as well as payouts odds, and use a Kelly formula to derive a possible percentage of the bankroll worth wagering. But as mentioned above, unless each game has a legitimate 4-5% lean to one side of the implied probability, OR the sportsbook is offering a 2x odds booster (and enough of them that one could lose 90-95% of parlays before winning one), the math almost never makes sense.
Does a Parlay Ever Make Sense?
Before betting on a parlay or any other type of bet, it’s crucial to understand the odds involved and to have a solid understanding of one’s own financial situation and risk tolerance. The only instances where a parlay might make sense, is when there is a 4-5 percentage point lean on every game in the parlay, OR if the sportsbook is offering a 2x odds booster. In any other circumstance, there is almost no mathematical reason for a parlay other than the thrill of getting close and the inevitable loss shortly after.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
When a Parlay Might Be Worth It (Rare Cases)
While parlays are generally negative expected value, there are a few rare situations where they might tilt in your favor. These aren’t common, but understanding them can help you recognize when the math justifies taking a shot.
Multiple Independent Edges Across Legs
If you have a verified statistical edge on each leg—meaning your model’s true win probability exceeds the sportsbook’s implied probability—stacking those edges can, in theory, create a profitable parlay. Independence matters: if your legs are correlated (e.g., QB over passing yards and WR over receptions in the same game), the book will usually reprice them to remove the edge.
Oversized, Genuine Odds Boosts That Survive the Math
Some sportsbooks offer parlay boosts or insurance. A small 10% boost rarely changes the math, but a massive 30–50% boost can tip the scales—if the legs already have positive expected value individually. Always run the boosted price through a calculator or tool before assuming it’s a free edge.
Small-Stake Entertainment With Expectations Set
If you treat parlays as a low-stakes lottery ticket, they can be “worth it” in an entertainment sense. The key is bankroll discipline: keep parlays to a fraction of a unit, expect volatility, and avoid chasing losses.
Do Services Exist that Make Picks against a Line or Spread?
Yes, sports picks or handicapping services have been around for quite some time, and they are designed to anticipate if a team has an advantage over a line or spread, then sell that data to their clients. There are new services that are employing Artificial Intelligence (AI) into their sports analytics calculations, which are showing a more significant advantage in identifying a teams advantage or lean over a line or spread compared to traditional sports handicapping services.
Parlay Payout Math
To calculate parlay payouts, each leg’s American odds must be converted to decimal odds. Multiply the decimals together to find the combined price. From there, you can derive the implied probability, expected profit, and total return. The math escalates quickly as more legs are added—which is why parlays feel so enticing but rarely deliver in practice.
| Leg | American | Decimal | Implied % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leg 1 | -110 | 1.909 | 52.38% |
| Leg 2 | -110 | 1.909 | 52.38% |
| Leg 3 | +150 | 2.500 | 40.00% |
|
Combined decimal = 1.909 × 1.909 × 2.50 = 9.11 Implied hit rate = 1 / 9.11 = 10.97% $50 stake → profit = 50 × (9.11 − 1) = $405.50 (return $455.50) |
|||
Parlay Calculator
For education only. Outputs are estimates; confirm book rules. Play responsibly.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Factor 3 — Bankroll & Variance Tolerance
Variance scales brutally with legs. Even solid 60% selections drop to a ~13% hit rate at four legs (0.640.6^4). That creates long losing streaks and emotional tilt. If you do play parlays, keep them a small fraction of a unit (e.g., 0.25–0.5u), set stop-losses, and never let parlays become your core staking strategy. Sharper long-term growth still comes from singles with edges.
Again, unless you are using a very scientific strategy or precise handicapping service incorporating a significant probability of win advantage over the implied probability of win for each leg in the parlay, a parlay almost never makes sense.
| Legs | Odds Per Leg | Odds Per Leg | Total Odds | Probability of Win | Optimal Mathematic Wager |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | -200 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 44.5% | $0 |
| 3 | -200 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 29.7% | $0 |
| 4 | -200 | 1.5 | 5.1 | 19.8% | $0 |
| 5 | -200 | 1.5 | 7.6 | 13.2% | $0 |
| 6 | -200 | 1.5 | 11.4 | 8.8% | $0 |
| 7 | -200 | 1.5 | 17.1 | 5.9% | $0 |
| 8 | -200 | 1.5 | 25.6 | 3.9% | $0 |
The math shows that you must have found a 3-5% lean over the line for each leg in the parlay for the math to even begin to make sense, and even then, alternative parlays like a Heinz57 or Goliath tend to be much more risk averse given the probability and payout odds. When you ask is a parlay worth it? Its not.
Safer Alternatives to Parlays
If your goal is long-term bankroll growth, parlays aren’t the most efficient path. Here are strategies that give you steadier results with less variance.
Singles With a Verified Edge
Professional bettors and sharp syndicates almost always focus on single bets. If your model or research shows an edge against the line, betting that single outcome maximizes expected value without multiplying risk.
Round Robins for Partial Insurance
Round robins allow you to spread your selections across smaller 2- or 3-leg combinations instead of one all-or-nothing ticket. You’ll sacrifice some payout potential, but you’ll cash something even if one leg misses.
Bankroll Rules and Unit Management
Whether betting singles or combos, unit discipline is non-negotiable. Stick to flat stakes (e.g., 1–2% of bankroll per play) or use a Kelly-lite approach to avoid tilt and overexposure. Parlays should be reserved for fun or small experiments, not your core bankroll strategy.
FAQ: Parlays, Payouts & Risk
Are parlays worth it in sports betting?
Parlays are rarely worth it for long-term bankroll growth. Because each leg adds risk while sportsbooks keep their margin per bet, the expected value is usually negative. Parlays can be fun for entertainment or small stakes, but single bets with an edge are almost always the smarter play.
How do you calculate parlay odds and payouts?
To calculate parlay odds, first convert each leg’s American odds into decimal format. Multiply all decimals together to get the combined price. From there, divide 1 by the combined decimal to find implied probability. Multiply your stake by the combined odds for potential return, and subtract stake to see profit. Our parlay calculator automates this instantly.
What happens if one leg of a parlay pushes?
In most sportsbooks, a push reduces the parlay by one leg and recalculates the payout as if that game was never included. For example, a 4-leg parlay with one push becomes a 3-leg parlay. Always confirm the push rules with your specific sportsbook before betting.
Do same-game parlays work the same way as regular parlays?
Same-game parlays (SGPs) are similar to regular parlays, but they combine markets from a single event. Because legs can be correlated (like a QB’s passing yards and a WR’s receptions), sportsbooks reprice the odds instead of multiplying them directly. This usually lowers the payout compared to multi-game parlays.
Do odds boosts make parlays profitable?
Odds boosts can help, but they don’t automatically make parlays profitable. Small boosts rarely offset the sportsbook’s hold, while oversized boosts (30%+) can create rare positive expected value opportunities—if the legs already carry an edge. Always run boosted parlays through a calculator to see if the math holds up.
What’s the difference between a parlay and a round robin?
A parlay is an all-or-nothing ticket where every leg must win. A round robin splits your selections into smaller 2- or 3-leg combinations. That way, if one pick loses, you may still cash on the smaller combos. Round robins reduce risk and variance, but also reduce potential payout.
How many legs should you put in a parlay?
The more legs you add, the lower your chances of hitting the parlay. Even strong 60% picks drop to just a 13% chance when combined in a 4-leg parlay. For entertainment purposes, 2–3 legs are less volatile. For long-term bankroll growth, single bets remain the best option.
Can you cash out a parlay early?
Many sportsbooks now allow early cash-outs on parlays. This feature lets you lock in profit or cut losses before all legs are completed. However, the cash-out price is controlled by the sportsbook and often includes built-in margin, meaning you may not get full fair value.
Why do sportsbooks promote parlays so heavily?
Sportsbooks push parlays because they’re highly profitable. The compounded hold (margin) across multiple legs increases the house edge, and most casual bettors chase big payouts despite the math being stacked against them. This makes parlays one of the most lucrative products for sportsbooks.
What’s safer for bankroll growth than parlays?
Safer strategies include betting singles with verified edges, using disciplined unit sizing, and occasionally mixing in round robins. Single bets let you maximize expected value on each pick and avoid the extreme variance of parlays, leading to steadier bankroll growth over time.