2024 AI Presidential Forecast

AI Predicts America's Next President

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2024 AI Presidential
Election Forecast

As of July 07, 2024 at 10:19 AM EDT

PRESIDENTIAL WIN PROABILITY

TODAY'S MODEL SHOWS A MODERATE LEAN TOWARDS TRUMP

BIDEN 28.09%
TRUMP 71.41%

NO-TOSSUP ELECTORAL VOTES

270 REQUIRED TO WIN

BIDEN 226
TRUMP 312

SWING STATE LEANS

Candidate Win Probability

MICHIGAN
15

TRUMP 53.2%
BIDEN 46.8%

NEVADA
6

TRUMP 57.8%
BIDEN 42.2%

PENNSYLVANIA
19

TRUMP 59.1%
BIDEN 40.9%

GEORGIA
16

TRUMP 62.1%
BIDEN 37.9%

NEBRASKA CD2
1

TRUMP 37.7%
BIDEN 62.3%

NEW HAMPSHIRE
4

TRUMP 40.4%
BIDEN 59.6%

WISCONSIN
10

TRUMP 65.6%
BIDEN 34.4%

MAINE
2

TRUMP 36.8%
BIDEN 63.2%

ARIZONA
11

TRUMP 65.5%
BIDEN 34.5%

MINNESOTA
10

TRUMP 32%
BIDEN 68%

VIRGINIA
13

TRUMP 31.2%
BIDEN 68.8%
 

NORTH CAROLINA
16

TRUMP 72.3%
BIDEN 27.7%
 

NEW MEXICO
5

TRUMP 22.7%
BIDEN 77.3%

FLORIDA
30

TRUMP 78.9%
BIDEN 21.1%

MI
15

TRUMP 53.2%
BIDEN 46.8%

NV
6

TRUMP 57.8%
BIDEN 42.2%

PA
19

TRUMP 59.1%
BIDEN 40.9%

GA
16

TRUMP 62.1%
BIDEN 37.9%

NE CD2
1

TRUMP 37.7%
BIDEN 62.3%

NH
4

TRUMP 40.4%
BIDEN 59.6%

WI
10

TRUMP 65.6%
BIDEN 34.4%

ME
2

TRUMP 36.8%
BIDEN 63.2%

AZ
11

TRUMP 65.5%
BIDEN 34.5%

MN
10

TRUMP 32.0%
BIDEN 68.0%

VA
13

TRUMP 31.2%
BIDEN 68.8%

NC
16

TRUMP 72.3%
BIDEN 27.7%

NM
5

TRUMP 22.6%
BIDEN 77.4%

FL
30

TRUMP 78.9%
BIDEN 21.1%
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2024 AI Presidential Forecast

The history of presidential forecasting in the United States spans from informal straw polls and anecdotal evidence in the early years to sophisticated statistical models and data-driven analysis in modern times. Before the 20th century, predictions relied largely on subjective impressions gathered from newspaper editorials, public speeches, and informal surveys. The famous 1936 Literary Digest poll, which predicted a victory for Alf Landon over Franklin D. Roosevelt based on a massive straw poll, famously failed when Roosevelt won in a landslide, underscoring the limitations of such unscientific methods.

How IS THE ELECTION FORECASTED?

Post-World War II, polling began to adopt more rigorous sampling techniques and statistical methods, with organizations like Gallup Poll pioneering scientific polling methodologies. The 1960s and 1970s saw further advancements as computing capabilities improved, enabling the use of probability models to analyze polling data and predict electoral outcomes with greater accuracy.

AI Election Forecast

WHO WILL WIN?

The development of exit polling in the 1980s provided another tool for forecasters, allowing them to gather immediate voter sentiment data as people left polling places. This added real-time insights into voter behavior and preferences.

By the 21st century, the rise of the internet and digital communication transformed the landscape of presidential forecasting. Poll aggregation websites such as Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics gained prominence for their sophisticated approaches, which aggregate and weigh different polls using complex algorithms. These sites not only predict election outcomes but also offer probabilistic forecasts that account for uncertainties and factors beyond polling data, such as economic indicators and historical trends.

HOW DOES AI PREDICT POLITICS?

Despite advancements, challenges persist in the field of presidential forecasting, including declining response rates to traditional polling methods and the difficulty of accurately predicting voter turnout. Innovations continue to emerge, such as the use of machine learning and big data analytics, aiming to further enhance the accuracy and reliability of electoral predictions. Presidential forecasting remains a dynamic and evolving field, continually adapting to technological advancements and methodological innovations in pursuit of more accurate insights into electoral outcomes.

AI political forecast
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