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2024 AI Presidential Forecast
AI Predicts America's Next President
Meet Remi
Our AI Election Genius
PRESIDENTIAL WIN PROABILITYTODAY'S MODEL SHOWS A TOSS-UP
NO-TOSSUP ELECTORAL VOTES
270 REQUIRED TO WIN
2024 AI Presidential
Election ForecastAs of Nov 3, 2024 at 8:29 AM EDT
Our AI predicts the following distribution of electoral votes without any toss-up states.
SWING STATE LEANS
Candidate Win Probability
Key swing states and their current leanings are detailed below. These states are critical for determining the overall election outcome.
MICHIGAN
15
TRUMP
48.6%
HARRIS
51.4%
PENNSYLVANIA
19
TRUMP
51.9%
HARRIS
48.1%
NEVADA
6
TRUMP
55.6%
HARRIS
44.4%
GEORGIA
16
TRUMP
56.7%
HARRIS
35%
WISCONSIN
10
TRUMP
57%
HARRIS
43%
NORTH CAROLINA
16
TRUMP
63.5%
HARRIS
36.5%
ARIZONA
11
TRUMP
64.1%
HARRIS
35.9%
NEW HAMPSHIRE
4
TRUMP
34.3%
HARRIS
65.7%
MINNESOTA
10
TRUMP
27%
HARRIS
73%
NEBRASKA CD2
1
TRUMP
26.7%
HARRIS
73.3%
VIRGINIA
13
TRUMP
24.9%
HARRIS
75.1%
MAINE
2
TRUMP
23.5%
HARRIS
76.5%
FLORIDA
30
TRUMP
78.1%
HARRIS
21.9%
NEW MEXICO
5
TRUMP
21.4%
HARRIS
78.6%
MI
15
TRUMP 48.6%
HARRIS 51.4%
PA
19
TRUMP 51.9%
HARRIS 48.1%
NV
6
TRUMP 55.6%
HARRIS 44.4%
GA
16
TRUMP 56.7%
HARRIS 43.3%
WI
10
TRUMP 57.0%
HARRIS 43.0%
NC
16
TRUMP 63.5%
HARRIS 36.5%
AZ
11
TRUMP 64.1%
HARRIS 35.9%
NE CD2
1
TRUMP 26.7%
HARRIS 70.9%
NH
4
TRUMP 34.3%
HARRIS 65.7%
ME
2
TRUMP 23.5%
HARRIS 76.5%
MN
10
TRUMP 27.0%
HARRIS 73.0%
VA
13
TRUMP 24.9%
HARRIS 75.1%
NM
5
TRUMP 21.4%
HARRIS 78.6%
FL
30
TRUMP 78.1%
HARRIS 21.9%
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2024 AI Presidential Forecast
Welcome to our 2024 AI Presidential Election Forecast page! Here, you’ll find the latest predictions on who will be the next President of the United States. Our AI model, Remi, provides real-time updates and highly accurate forecasts. Explore the data, understand the methodology, and see how Remi predicts the election outcome.
AI ELECTION FORECAST METHODOLOGY
Remi is a machine learning algorithm that consumes vast amounts of historical data from all corners of the internet and crunches them into a single win probability for each state. This probability is then combined into the Electoral College framework to determine an overall win probability for the election.
Polling, both currently and historically, is critical to this model. The machine learning piece comes in when Remi recursively begins to analyze how previous polls, voter trends, and demographics historically behaved compared to the actual result. These massive amounts of data can quantify more rigorous sampling techniques and statistical methods when applied to scientific polling methodologies.
The electorate will always be fairly predictable from cycle to cycle, but the variability in subtle demographics and trends, some of which are less vocal or harder to quantify in polls, can occasionally create polling errors of five to seven points; more than enough to sway the outcome of a state and sometimes the election.
WHO WILL WIN?
Great question! Before President Biden dropped out of the race Remi predicted Trump had a 71.41% of winning the election, and was likely to be competitive in states like Virginia, Maine, and New Hampshire, in addition to winning all of the traditional swing states.
Then, in the span of a week. Trump had the top of his ear blasted off in one of the most egregious failures of the Secret Service in decades, all while the Democratic party was silently ushering Biden out of the room. When Biden did finally concede, it was masterfully (or accidentally) timed to take most of the historical convention bump from Republicans and focus all the attention on Harris who was able to string more than two cohesive sentences together.
Now the race is wide open. The dislike for Trump is coming more into focus while the young and black demographic begins to erode his lead. However, Kamala does have some vulnerabilities in she’s began to change most of her historical positions towards the center and how long will the swoon of Democrats not having to vote for Biden last before swallowing the pill of voting for Kamala and her flaws.
Most polls and our modeling has the election as a Toss-Up, or within a +/-10% chance either candidate will win, but this is likely to change as November approaches.
HOW IS THE ELECTION FORECASTED?
Our AI election forecast uses a combination of historical data, current polling, and sophisticated algorithms to predict the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. Here’s a breakdown of our methodology:
- Data Collection: We gather data from various reliable sources, including polling data, historical voting patterns, and demographic information. We also look at and try to quantify importance issues, like the economy, immigration, and abortion as to the effect on everyday life and how likely those singular issues are to sway a candidate.
- Model Training: Our AI model, Remi, is trained using this data to identify patterns and trends that influence election outcomes. Remi uses recursive machine learning to identify non-intuitive patterns and trends that could repeat themselves.
- Calculation: Remi calculates the probability of each candidate winning each state based on the latest data inputs. Then, Remi factors in the electoral college framework to predict an overall election winner.
- Real-Time Updates: The model continuously updates its predictions as new data becomes available. These updates are published to the website less frequently than the model is updated, but you can see when the last update was by checking the timestamp at the top of the page.
HOW DOES AI PREDICT POLITICS?
Despite advancements, challenges persist in the field of presidential forecasting, including declining response rates to traditional polling methods and the difficulty of accurately predicting voter turnout. Innovations continue to emerge, such as the use of machine learning and big data analytics, aiming to further enhance the accuracy and reliability of electoral predictions. Presidential forecasting remains a dynamic and evolving field, continually adapting to technological advancements and methodological innovations in pursuit of more accurate insights into electoral outcomes.
WHAT ELSE DOES REMI PREDICT?
Remi’s best work and majority of cycles are spent predicting the outcome of sporting events. The AI model applies the same methodology to crunch millions of data points and boil them down to a single win probability. Then, Remi factors in the current betting lines and determines how strongly a game leans to one side of a line or spread.